population development and environment
DESCRIPTION
The paper analyses the pattern and level of development in South Asia (India,Bangladesh. Bhutan, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka). It also focuses upon therelationship between population, development and environment in South Asia.TRANSCRIPT
PED (Population, Environment and Development): The SAARC Countries Scenario
Uttam Kumar
Assistant Professor, Department of Geography J.S.H (P G) College, J P Nagar
INDIA Email: [email protected]
PED (Population, Environment and Development): The SAARC Countries Scenario
ABSTRACT
South Asia as a region has its own geographical, political and economic importance in the world. Therefore, it is very important to analyze development scenario of South Asian nations, especially when it has been quoted as the most dynamic and potential region of 21st century.
The Challenge for South Asian region today is to travel the vast distance between its performance and its promise. On the one hand, it has emerged as the poorest, the most illiterate, the most malnourished and least gender ‐ sensitive region in the world. On the other hand it has all potential to become the most dynamic region in the 21st century if there is a massive investment in human development (Report of Human Development in South Asia, 1998). Moreover the environment of these nations is also deteriorating. Due to great focus on economic development, environment has always remained a secondary thing for these nations.
The paper analyses the pattern and level of development in South Asia (India, Bangladesh. Bhutan, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka). It also focuses upon the relationship between population, development and environment in South Asia. The data is collected from various published sources and then analyzed using correlation technique. Taking into consideration various aspects of development an index has been formulated for the level of development in these nations. It is found that Sri Lanka is the most developed country followed by India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal respectively. Sri Lanka has lowest birth rate, death rate and fertility rate. A high correlation exists between population growth and agricultural Sectoral share to GDP. Per capita GDP and per capita energy consumption has a negative correlation with population growth. In South Asia, there is a positive relationship between industrial Sectoral share to GDP and per capita GDP and energy consumption per head.
Relationship is also established between land man ratio and land degradation. It is found that a very high positive correlation i.e. 0.785 exists between both. There is a direct positive correlation between energy consumption and deforestation, and carbon dioxide emission. A high correlation can also be observed between carbon dioxide emission and number of persons below 1 US$ a day (an important indicator of development) per capita GDP also has positive tearing upon carbon dioxide emission, deforestation and land degradation. A positive relationship is observed between industrial Sectoral share to total GDP and carbon dioxide emissions. Population growth has a direct bearing upon number of persons below poverty line. This means it is true to an extent that high population growth in South Asia is responsible for poverty, which has high correlation with various environmental issues.
South Asian nations must proceed to work out strategies for sustainable development rather than thinking about just economic gains. Main focus should be on the proper distribution of these economic gains. The segregation of funds in various sectors has to be in judicious way. Environmental awareness and Green technology need to be adopted by all these nations.
INTRODUCTION
"Are we developing?" The true essence of development is a fantasy for mankind.
Every time we feel we have developed, the scope of further development widens
up. In the race of development all the Third World countries are trying to
accelerate their shares, yet internally howling for mere subsistence.
The categorization of countries as developing and developed, north or south is
relative, based on their economic and social standards. The terms like
'sustainability', 'Eco‐development. 'Eco‐friendly' etc are new words in our
dictionary. The term 'Growth' got substituted with 'development' and
'development' with 'sustainable development'; terms kept on changing but so‐
called Third World kept struggling to feed their huge population, unintentionally
ignoring environmental planning. But the issue of development and simultaneous
environmental degradation is not limited to the Third World; rather it's a global
issue. The major culprits have passed through the phase of development, where
the Third World is still lying.
Development has always remained an issue and target for all the developing
nations. In these countries, vast human population is accompanied by poor social
conditions. Recently, after United Nation Environmental Programme and several
alarming environmental conferences at the international level, the developing
nations have started thinking about sustainable development From economic
growth to development and then to sustainable development, different
philosophies as per the needs and repercussions of human activities, these nations
are going through different phases of challenge. This paper focuses upon the
relationship of development and environment in South Asian countries. It gives a
comparative picture of six main countries of this region i.e. India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Bhutan, Srilanka and Nepal (whose data is available in various
international and regional publications and is comparable).
The aim of the paper is to assess the level of development in South Asian nations
and to find out correlation between the level of development and environment. It
also talks about various environmental problems in South Asia and its relationship
with numerous development factors.
The main objectives of the paper are: to find out the level of development in South
Asian countries; to find out con‐elation between development factors; to find out
correlation between environmental factors and to find out correlation among
environment and development factors. In order to assess the development of
South Asia various social and economic indicators are selected, based on data
availability for the above mentioned countries. The indicators are Crude Death
Rate, Crude Birth Rate, Fertility Rate, Life Expectancy, Infant Mortality Rate, Per
capita GDP, and Population with access to sanitation, safe drinking water, Public
expenditure on education (% to GNP), Public expenditure on health (% to GNP),
Population below US $ 1 a day, per capita energy consumption (Kilograms oil
equivalent). These indicators are assessed for all the six South Asian Countries. The
countries are ranked for each indicator. This rank is given according to the nature
of the indicator, the country, which shows best performance in each indicator, has
been given the highest rank i.e. 6. For example, the country with highest Crude
Birth Rate (CBR) is given lowest rank i.e. 1. But the country with highest Life
expectancy has been given sixth rank. In the same way five main environmental
indicators are selected based on data availability of all the six countries. These
indicators are number of threatened species (species that have been assessed and
found lo meet one of the standard World Conservation Union status categories
including threatened status: endangered, vulnerable, rare and intermediate),
carbon di oxide emission (000s mt. of CO2), deforested area per year in hectare,
percent of waterlogged land to total agricultural land and percent of saline land to
total agricultural land. The countries are ranked on the basis of their existing
situation. The country with highest number of threatened species, carbon dioxide
emissions, percent of waterlogged land to total agricultural land and percent of
saline land to total agricultural land and maximum deforested area has considered
being most environmentally degraded and has been given lowest rank. In both the
cases the rank has been added for each country and divided by number of
indicators in order to obtain development and environment index. After obtaining
both the indices ranks have been given to the countries. This time first rank is given
to most developed country. First rank is also given to most environmentally
degraded country. Finally, a correlation is found between the two. Three
correlation matrix are formulated for relationship between selected developmental
indicators; selected environmental factors and between these environmental and
developmental factors.
Development in South Asia: South Asia is endowed with rich natural and cultural
resources. Its story of development can be traced way back to the Aryan's time,
one of the oldest civilizations in the world. The South Asian countries are always
known for their raw material and extensive resource base. This acted as a magnet
for the European countries to establish their firm foot in these nations. From silk of
Bangladesh to spices of India, Europeans were handling all the resources of these
nations. The people of these nations were not ready to accept the technology,
science and the renaissance. Infact they were engrossed in superstitions. More
over, the society was divided in varnas, which were strictly followed. The division,
and heterogeneity of society made it easier for the Europeans to rule for so long.
So called “Development” was an unknown concept for these nations until the
Britishers came in India, the brought with them cultural and technological
revolution. Introduction of railway connected the subcontinent and helped in
bridging up the gap of regional, social, economic and cultural disparity.
Figure 1: Population of South Asian Countries (1950‐2050)
The huge landmass of South Asian countries was being partitioned first in 1947
(India and Pakistan) and then in 1971(Pakistan and Bangladesh). Their struggle for
subsistence became even difficult. Economic and social setback made them
weaker. Development became a secondary thing. Floods of Bangladesh, division of
fertile land and resources between the three nations (Bangladesh, India and
Pakistan) and loss of life and property in partition were few major causes for
backwardness of these regions. Due to spatial variation in the intensity of all these
factors, there is variation in the development scenario of South Asian countries.
South Asian countries have a slow rate of development. But after development of
trade routes, railways and industries, the development of the nations speeded up.
The Challenge for South Asian region today is to travel the vast distance between
its performance and its promise. On the one hand, it has emerged as the poorest,
the most illiterate, the most malnourished and least gender ‐ sensitive region in the
world. On the other hand it has all potential to become the most dynamic region in
the 21st century if there is a massive investment in human development (Report of
Human Development in South Asia, 1998).
The diverse and vast continental block of South Asia consists of 3.5 per cent of
world's land and around 20 per cent of world's population. These countries have a
large population base, which is increasing at an alarming rate. It was between 1980
and 1990 that South Asia's population grew at the annual average of 2.2 per cent
as compared to world's population growth of 1.7 per cent. Along with a lowering of
world population growth during the 1990's, South Asian population growth
reduced to 1.9 percent (South Asia Development and Cooperation Report, 2001‐
2002).
Figure 2: Birth and Death rate of South Asian Countries
The population has increased rapidly in all countries from 1950 to 1998. In
Bangladesh it has become 3 times of 1950. In Bhutan it has increased nearly 2.6
times. For India and Nepal it is 2.3 and .9 times respectively. In Srilanka the
population has increased 2.4 times, while in Pakistan it is 3.74 times that of 1950.
The projection shows that by 2025 growth rate is expected to fall in almost all the
countries. India will reach more than 1.5 billion by 2050. Pakistan will have around
40 million populations in 2050 followed by Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and
Bhutan respectively.
Looking at the variation Crude Birth Rate of these nations it can be seen that the
birth rate (per thousand) is as high as 41.3 in Bhutan and as low as 17.8 in Sri Lanka.
The Crude Birth Rate has fallen in all these countries, due to awareness of family
planning. Crude Death Rate has also fallen in all the countries, due to the
improvements in medical facilities. Bhutan has the highest CDR of 13.7 followed by
Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Nepal. Sri Lanka has the lowest CDR of 5.6 per
thousand.
Population increase is a root cause for all socio‐economic and environmental
problems in South Asia. Two schools of thought exist and pertain different
reasoning to support their views. In South Asian countries massive population has
pressurized upon the resources.
Figure 3: Per Capita Availability of Land Resource
Population Pressure
Pressure on agricultural land
DEFORESTATION for fuel and timber products. (Northern
India, Nepal and Bhutan)
Land degradation
and soil erosion
Increase in carbon di-
oxide emission
Increase in number of threatened species
(flora and Fauna)
Loss of agricultural
land
Climate change and various
respiratory diseases
Change in biological diversity and vegetation type
Floods in Bangladesh and lower regions
Loss of life and property
Poverty
For example these nations, especially India, have vast agricultural land but due to
increase in population, per head availability of land is very low. According to FAO
Production Yearbook, per head agricultural land (Crop land + Permanent pastures)
is as low as 0.12 hectare in Bangladesh to as high as 0.40 hectare in Pakistan. Per
head agricultural land is very low in India i.e. 0.34 hectare. This is very low as
compared to world average of 2.03 hectare per head. The low per head availability
of land resource in the region leads to various environmental problems, especially
land degradation.
On the other hand scholars believe more people more brains and rich human
resource, which can lead to innovations and inventions and lead to better planning
strategies. But the reality is that on one hand, to a great extent poor and ignorant
citizens are responsible for environmental degradation (which is transboundary),
on the other hand over ambitious policy makers and poor administration
machinery adds to it. Lack of jobs and poor women health care (especially at the
time of pregnancy) failed to control the population growth after independence.
Poor, who have little to sustain, require more hands to earn. Daily struggle to
survive gives them no time to think about the environment.
Level of Development of South Asia
Taking into consideration various aspects of development an index has been
formulated for the level of development in these nations, it is found that Sri Lanka
is the most developed country followed by India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan and
Nepal respectively. Sri Lanka has lowest birth rate, death rate and fertility rate. Life
expectancy is highest in Sri Lanka i.e. 73 years, followed by Pakistan and India
respectively. Sri Lanka also has lowest Infant Mortality Rate and highest GDP per
capita. In Bangladesh nearly 84 per cent of population has facility of safe drinking
water as compared to Nepal, which has only 44 per cent.
A large majority of population remains without access to safe water or adequate
health facilities; poverty levels are high and as per the UNDP Report on Human
development (1991), out of the total poor of 1200 million in the entire world, the
region has 575 million and most of these are in India and Bangladesh (Hanssen,
1993).
Table 1: Correlation between Selected Development Indicators
Development Factors
Population Growth
(%)
Per Capital GDP
Persons < US$ 1 a day (%)
Energy Consumption per head
Agricultural Sectoral share to total GDP
Industrial
Sectoral Share to total GDP
Population Growth %
1 ‐0.715 0.589 ‐0.318 0.795 0.102
Per capital GDP
2 ‐0.724 0.519 ‐0.748 0.164
Persons < US$ 1 a day (%)
1 0.216 0.579 ‐0.376
Energy Consumption per head
1 ‐0.521 0.089
Agricultural Sectoral
1 ‐0.266
share to total GDP
Industrial Sectoral Share to total GDP
1
Per capita energy consumption is highest in India, followed by Pakistan and Sri
Lanka respectively. India has nearly 44 per cent of people earning below US $ 1 a
day, as compare to Pakistan, which has 31 per cent. Sri Lanka has only 6.6 per cent
of its population earning below US $1 a day.
South Asian nations' economy is based upon agriculture. The matrix shows a high
correlation between population growth and agricultural Sectoral share to GDP. Per
capita GDP and per capita energy consumption has a negative correlation with
population growth. In South Asia, there is a positive relationship between industrial
sectoral share to GDP and per capita GDP and energy consumption per head. The
growth rate of GDP was 5.5 percent in 1995, which fell to 4.7 per cent in 1998 and
further to 4.5 per cent in 2001. But in the year 2002 it showed a little growth and
reached 5 percent per year. Industrial and service sector have expanded and their
contribution to GDP has been increasing in the region. Presently, Sectoral share of
GDP shows hat service sector contributes nearly 52 per cent in Sri Lanka. It varies
from 35 per cent in Bhutan to 75 per cent in Maldives. Looking at per capita GNP
(1999), Maldives has the highest US 1160‐followed by Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Pakistan,
India and Bangladesh respectively. Nepal has the lowest per capita GNP as $ 220. In
comparison, Singapore has highest per capita GNP as $ 29610.
The correlation is also done between public expenditure on health (% to GNP) and
various development indicators. Population growth and industrial growth has
positive correlation with public expenditure on health, i.e. 0.216 and 0.633
respectively.
Environmental Problems in South Asia: Agricultural development, especially green
revolution made poor farmers earn more. Agricultural contribution to Gross
Domestic product increased but fertile land suffered a massive degradation. This is
due to use of harmful chemicals as well as lack of appropriate knowledge to use the
new technology. Water logging and‐salinity emerged as major environmental
hazards and constraints for South Asian nations, for example in India, 80 million
hectares out of total net cultivated area of 142 million hectares are estimated to be
suffering from various degrees of land degradation (Shafi, 2000). A recent
pioneering study sponsored by three United Nations agencies (FAO, UNDP and
UNEP) estimated the severity and costs of land degradation in South Asia. Its
shocking conclusion was that the countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh,
Afghanistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bhutan) are losing at least US$10 billion annually
as a result of losses resulting from land degradation. In many areas of sloping land,
for example in Nepal, it is severe, causing permanent loss of the land's productive
capacity.
Relationship is also established between land man ratio and land degradation. It is
found that a very high positive correlation i.e. around 0.785 exists between both.
This means more the population more is the pressure on land, pressure on land to
produce more with the help of green revolution, reduced its capability in long term.
Forests in South Asia are diverse and have lot of potential as a resource. It can be
seen that there is very high correlation between annual deforestation and carbon
di oxide emission.
Table 2: Correlation between Selected Environmental Factors
Environmental factors
Factors
Carbon di‐oxide emission
Annual Deforestation in Hectare
Land degradation % to total agricultural land
Carbon di‐oxide emission
1 0.993 0.071
Annual deforestation in hectare
1 0.126
Land degradation % to total agricultural land
1
Wood is still a major source of cooking fuel. Most of the people in Northern India,
Nepal and Bhutan still rely upon wood for cooking fuel. This is because of the fact
that it is a cheap source of fuel and is readily available. People living in this area are
poor and cannot afford an expensive fuel, for example 80 per cent of wood
production is used for fuel in this region. Massive deforestation due to urbanization
and industrialization has led to various other environmental hazards like floods,
increase in number of threatened species, increase in green house effect etc. All
the environmental problems are interlinked with each other; therefore, massive
deforestation is either due to competing land uses or for cooking fuel. Bangladesh
and Pakistan has very high rate of deforestation. India has nearly 17.4 per cent and
Pakistan has only 2.45 per cent of their total land under forest. Deforestation also
leads to increase in number of threatened species both of plants and animals. In
Sundarbans, an ecosystem common to India and Bangladesh‐increasing population
pressure has lead to massive loss in plant and animal species. Major endangered
species in South Asia are Snow Leopard, Asiatic Lion, Asian elephant and Indian
Python. Deforestation, in long run, lead to change in biological diversity and
vegetation type. Deforestation, in up hills, can lead to soil erosion and floods in
plain areas. For example in Bangladesh flood is an annual phenomenon. 80 per cent
of the population of Bangladesh in vulnerable to floods
More over urbanization is also a major cause of environmental problems. City
planning in South Asia has not been effective. Enormous migration of people from
rural to urban areas has led to haphazard growth of cities. Squatter settlements are
on rise in all major cities especially in Bombay, Calcutta, Delhi, Karachi and Dhaka.
Industrial development and increase of vehicles have led to air pollution. The
haphazard growth of cities and juxtaposition of mixed urban land use has created
various problems. The buildings vary in size and lack proper ventilations.
Mushrooming of urban slums has led to development of unhygienic conditions.
Moreover, narrow roads could not adjust to the vehicular boom in the cities, poor
quality fuel added to the problem of air pollution. Air pollution is estimated to
cause more than 250,000 deaths and billions of cases of illness every year.
Haphazard growth of cities has led to mushrooming of various industrial units in
residential parts of cities. Karachi and Lahore in Pakistan, suffer from high pollution
levels. Due to poor fuel quality, the high levels of lead and sulphur are introduced
in the air. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has not only caused pressure on
water resource but also water pollution. In Bangladesh, the recent growth of
garment industries and its associated industries like dying, printing and finishing
units use highly toxic wastes, dyes and chemicals. These industries are situated on
riverbanks, therefore causing extreme water pollution.
Figure 4: Population pressure and Environmental Problems in South Asia�
Table 3. Correlation Between Development and Environmental issues in South
Asia
Development Factors Environmental Factors
Population Growth (%)
Per Capita GDP
Persons < 1$S a day (%)
Energy consumption per head
Agricultural sec total share to total GDP
Industrial Sectoral share to total GDP
Carbon di oxide emission
‐0.264 0.162 0.582 0.754 ‐0.187 0.098
Annual deforestation in hactare
‐0.236 0.135 0.159 0.765 ‐0.140 ‐0.004
Land degradation % to total agricultural land
‐0.175 0.203 ‐0.046 0.634 ‐0.241 ‐0.128
Lack of planning, massive immigration and uneven distribution of resources are
major causes of various environmental problems in the South Asian cities. The
matrix depicts a direct positive correlation between energy consumption and
deforestation, and carbon di oxide emission. Though the region is not a major
global polluter, enhance energy use will double CO‐, emissions by 2010 (Hassen,
1993). A high correlation can also be observed between carbon di oxide emission
and number of persons below 1 US$ a day (an important indicator of
development). Per capita GDP also has positive bearing upon carbon di oxide
emission, deforestation and (and degradation. A positive relationship is observed
between industrial Sectoral share to total GDP and carbon di oxide emissions. It has
been observed that there is a very high correlation between population growth and
number of persons below poverty line. This means it is true to an extent that high
population growth in South Asia is responsible for poverty, which has high
correlation with various environmental issues.
Environment cannot be viewed in isolation. Population and development affect the
state of Environment. Therefore it is necessary to consider population,
environment and development as interacting aspect of the global phenomena
(Nag, P., 2001, p374)
But the question arises that is population control strategy in these nations will
solve the existing environmental problem. The high and middle class people are
opting for small families but poor have same old way to thinking, even in the big
cities. The Human resource of such kind, which is supposed to have lot of inherent
traints, can lead to several social and cultural problems in future. Moreover, as
Malthus said in his theory of population, the gap between rich and poor will
increase. This situation will have a negative impact on the environment.
Environment in South Asia has fallen prey to the unintentional repercussions of
increase in human number. Proper planning both in case of number and quality of
humans is the solution to all the problems. Population, development and
environment have a complex relationship amongst themselves. Environment is an
open system. We get what we give. Therefore, South Asian nations must proceed
to work out strategies for sustainable development rather than thinking about just
economic gains. This does not mean economic gains are to be dealt as secondary
strategy. Main focus should be on the proper distribution of these economic gains.
The segregation of funds in various sectors has to be in judicious way.
Environmental awareness and Green technology need to be adopted by all these
nations.
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