powerpoint presentation · title: powerpoint presentation author: evrard, jean-noel created date:...
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PERSPECTIVAS POST 2017
Jean-Noël Evrard
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¿DE DONDE VENIMOS?
Antes de 2017
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Evolución de las superficies / rendimientos en Europa 1990-2015
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Producción de azúcar por país en Europa (2015)
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Evolución superficies en Italia y España
-
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016* 2016/2017
Italy Spain
Italy Spain
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Evolución de las superficies en Bélgica, Holanda, R.U.
-
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016* 2016/2017
Belgium Netherlands United Kingdom
Belgium The Netherlands United Kingdom
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Evolución de las superficies Francia y Alemaña
200.000
220.000
240.000
260.000
280.000
300.000
320.000
340.000
360.000
380.000
400.000
2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016* 2016/2017
France Germany
France Germany
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Evolución de las superficies en Europa de 2004 a 2016
-
500.000
1.000.000
1.500.000
2.000.000
2.500.000
2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016* 2016/2017
EU ha
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Evolución de la producción de Azucar en Europa (Rendimiento Azucar /ha)
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Evolución de la producción de Azucar en ESPAÑA (Rendimiento Azucar /ha)
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PRINCIPALES GRUPOS AZUCAREROS EUROPEOS
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page 13
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page 14
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Südzucker
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Las azucareras de Tereos en Europa
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AB sugar en R.U. y España
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¿PERSPECTIVAS FUTURAS?
Después de 2017
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Pespectiva mundial del consumo
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¿QUE PAPEL PUEDE JUGAR EUROPA?
Después de 2017- post quota
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Importación / Exportación Europa
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¿Que papel para Europa ?
• Europa volverá a ser exportadora
• ¿Cantidad?
• Estimación según expertos pudiendo alcanzar hasta 3 mio toneladas de azúcar
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Possible escenario (source agritel)
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
19
,6
20
,06
16
,4
16
,64
15
,19
5
17
,05
5
15
,40
3
18
,52
5
17
,09
6
16
,29
9
19
,51
3
14
,87
3
17
,3
18
,8
19
,4
19
,8
20
,1
20
,3
20
,5
20
,7
20
,8
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
(est)
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
Production of sugar beet EU (Mt)
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Posible escenario (fuente agritel)
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¿QUE PRECIOS DE REMOLACHA EN EUROPA?
???
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Posibles precios de remolachas en Europa para 2017 En
fo
nci
ón
de
los
pai
sesy
de
los
gru
po
s
Precio de la remolacha Riqueza Pulpas SI/NO
Coste del tranporte pagado por industria
Contrato precio fijo €/t Contrato variable €/t
16.0 Oui Oui
18.0 Oui Oui
16.0 Non Oui partie
16.0 Oui Oui
16.0 Oui Oui
16.0 Oui Oui
17.5 Non Oui
17.0 Oui Oui
16.0 Oui Non
16.0 Oui Non
Los contratos variables dependen del precio medio de venta de Azucar pudiendo ir de 300€/t à 700€/t
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Posibles precios de remolachas en Europa para 2017 E
n F
on
ctio
n d
e lo
s p
aise
s y
de
los
gru
po
s
Precio de la remolacha Riqueza Pulpa SI/NO
Coste del tranporte pagado por industria
Contrato Precio Fijo €/t Contrato Variable €/t
29€/t 16.0 Oui Oui
18.0 Oui Oui
22€/t mini & 28€/t max 16.0 Non Oui partie
27€/t 16.0 Oui Oui
25€/t 16.0 Oui Oui
16.0 Oui Oui
26.29€/t 17.5 Non Oui
32.5€/t 17.0 Oui Oui
16.0 Oui Non
16.0 Oui Non
Los contratos variables dependen del precio medio de venta de Azucar pudiendo ir de 300€/t à 700€/t
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Posibles precios de remolachas en Europa para 2017 En
fo
nci
ón
de
los
pai
ses
y d
e lo
s gr
up
os
Precio de la remolacha
Riqueza Pulpas SI/NO
Coste del transporte pagado por industria
Contrato precio fijo €/t Contrato variable €/t
29€/t 28.3 -29.9-31.5 16.0 Oui Oui
23-26-29-32-35-40-46-52 18.0 Oui Oui
22€/t mini & 28€/t max 25.7-????? 16.0 Non Oui partie
27€/t 16.0 Oui Oui
25€/t 16.0 Oui Oui
20.25-23-25.6-28.1€ 16.0 Oui Oui
26.29€/t
17.5 Non Oui
32.5€/t 17.0 Oui Oui
Contrat sur 1 an 22 à 25 16.0 Oui Non
Contrat sur 3 ans 22 à 29 16.0 Oui Non
Los contratos variables dependent del precio medio de venta de azucar pudiendo ir de 300€/t à 700€/t
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¿COMO PUEDEN EVOLUCIONAR LAS SUPERFICIES EN EUROPA ?
Después de 2017-post quota
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Evolution des surfaces en Belgique, Hollande, UK
-
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016* 2016/2017 2017-2018
Belgium Netherlands United Kingdom
Belgium The Netherlands United Kingdom
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Evolution des surfaces France Allemagne
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
450.000
500.000
2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016* 2016/2017 2017-2018
France Germany
France Germany
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Evolution surfaces en Italie et Espagne
-
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016* 2016/2017 2017-2018
Italy Spain
Italy Spain
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¿QUE PAPEL PUEDE JUGAR ESPAÑA ?
Después de 2017-post quota
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Las fuerzas de España
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Las fuerzas de España
Fuerzas
• Producción otoñal: único país europeo
• Posibilidad de anticipar las ventas
• Apartado de la cuenca remolachera del norte de Europa
• Mercado interior importante
• Uno de los mejores rendimientos en Europa
• Herramientas industriales eficientes
Debilidades
• Climatología difícil: irrigación necesaria
• Coste de producción más elevado
• …
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Muchas Gracias por vuestra atención!!!
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