presentación evento bilbao (2 marzo 2016)
TRANSCRIPT
A B E R D E E N - M & G - V O N T O B E L
¿CÓMO INVERTIR EN UN
ENTORNO DE TIPOS BAJOS?
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
¿Dónde invertir en un mercado de divergencias?
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
La trilogía de 2016:
¿De verdad podemos resumir todo en
China, Petróleo, Tipos de Interés EEUU?
Bueno vale! Incluso el Brexit?
¿Qué descuentan los.mercados?..
¿Dónde invertir en un mercado de divergencias?
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
¿Qué descuentan los.mercados?..
• ¿#Cuál#es#la#valoración#real#de#los#activos#en#un#
mundo#de#inyecciones#masivas#de#liquidez?
• ¿Son#capaces#de#ser#rentables#los#bancos#con#
estos#niveles,#o#incluso#más#bajos,#de#tipos#de#
interés?
• ¿Es#efectiva#la#política#llevada#a#cabo#por#los#
Bancos#Centrales,#o#nos#abocará#a#una#guerra#
entre#los#mismos#con#el#fin#de#impulsar#la#
competitividad#a#basa#de#una#divisa#débil?#
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
¿Dónde invertir en un mercado de divergencias? ¿Estamos entrando en recesión?
¿Dónde invertir en un mercado de divergencias?
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
Valoración de los distintos activos
Sample'of'assets,'showing' real'yield'against'an'assessment'of'neutrality
!3%
!1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
RentabilidadReal*
NeutralityPor$encima$de$la$neutralidad$– barato?
Por debajo de$la$neutralidad –caro?
Source:( M&G,(Datastream,( 21(January( 2016.( *Real(yield( for(equity( is(defined( as(an( inflationAadjusted( inverted( p/e( ratio,(using(forward(consensus( data
¿Dónde invertir en un mercado de divergencias?
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
¿Qué hará el Eurostoxx 50 de hoy a 1 año?Escenario para Europa: Lento crecimiento y una pírrica inflación…
¿Dónde invertir en un mercado de divergencias?
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
¿Dónde hallar el verdadero Valor? ROE & EPS Growth : Motor de nuestra gama
TRANSPARENCIA*ROBUSTAS
BENEFICIOS*PREDECIBLES**/*ALTO*ROE**
Divergencia de tipos de interés y alta volatilidad
EEUU
¿Cómo evoluciona el S&P 500 durante períodos de subida de tipos de interés?
Reino Unido
¿Quién será el siguiente en subir tipos de interés?
Europa
¿Cómo le afecta a la bolsa el QE en Europa?
Emergentes
Las materias primas y la deuda emitida en dólares, dos riesgos del 2016
Las gestoras de fondos responden …
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
* Rentabilidades pasadas no garantizan rentabilidades futuras. Rentabilidad a fecha 29/02/2016. ** Rentabilidad a un año acumulada.
Vontobel Fund- EUR Corporate
Bond Mid Yield
RF Deuda Corporativa EUR
Rentabilidad 3 años: 4,26%
Volatilidad 3 años: 3,70%
Vontobel Fund- European Equity
RV Europa Cap. Grande Growth
Rentabilidad 3 años: 7,59%
Volatilidad 3 años: 11,82%
Vontobel Fund- Bond Global Aggregate
RF Flexible Global-EUR Cubierto
Rentabilidad YTD: -1,84% ** Volatilidad YTD: 4,91% **
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
Vontobel Fund- EUR Corporate Bond Mid Yield
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
Track record
Disclaimer: Mondher Bettaieb has taken over the management of the fund on June 1st 2010. Past performance is no guide to future performance.Source & Copyright: Citywire (as of 15.01.2016), Vontobel Asset Management; Morningstar Awards 2015 (c). Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Awarded to Vontobel Fund – EUR Corporate Bond Mid Yield B best EUR Corporate Bond Fund in Austria, Germany, Italy, Spain, Luxembourg and Finland.
! Portfolio manager with 20 years of corporate credit experience as analyst and investment professional
! Portfolio manager supported by strong team of 5 professionals concentrating on corporate credit
! Focused portfolio concentrated on high conviction bond picks enhanced by active segment allocation depending on risk environment
Indexed gross return
Mondher Bettaieb LoriotHead of Corporate BondsPortfolio Manager
Gross return p.a. %
Description Vontobel Fund - EUR Corporate Bond Mid Yield (Institutional Share Class; LU0278087860); The composite consists of all fund share classes with a Mid Yield Bond investment strategy.
Benchmark Merrill Lynch Corporate A-BBB
Currency EUR
Time period 1.6.2010 − 31.01.2016
3 years (gross) Composite Benchmark
Volatility (p.a.) 3.66 % 2.82 %
Sharp Ratio (p.a.) 1.69 1.38
Tracking-Error (p.a.) 1.32 %
Beta 1.23
Information Ratio (p.a.) 1.73
Correlation 0.95
95100105110115120125130135140145150155
Jun
10A
ug 1
0N
ov 1
0Fe
b 11
May
11
Aug
11
Nov
11
Feb
12M
ay 1
2A
ug 1
2N
ov 1
2Fe
b 13
May
13
Aug
13
Nov
13
Feb
14M
ay 1
4A
ug 1
4N
ov 1
4Fe
b 15
May
15
Aug
15
Nov
15
Benchmark Composite
-0,15 -0,15-0,56
6,28
7,56
0,46 0,46
-0,84
4,00
5,17
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years
Composite Benchmark
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
Vontobel Fund- Bond Global Aggregate
Track record What makes us special?
Hervé HanouneHead of Fixed IncomePortfolio Manager
! Portfolio manager with a strong 20-year track-record in global aggregate investing
! Support from credit and emerging-market specialists to seize global opportunities
! Active approach to take value wherever it exists
Net return p.a. %Indexed net return
Disclaimer: Past performance is no guide to future performance. Performance data does not take account of commission or costs charged when units are issued or redeemed.Source & Copyright: Citywire (as of 15.01.2016), Vontobel Asset Management, Bloomberg
Description Hervé Hanoune was the portfolio manager for the Amundi Funds - Bond Global Aggregate (LU0319687637) from 01Jul08 until 31Mar14. He took over the Vontobel Fund - Bond Global Aggregate (LU0278091383) from 01 Sept14. For the period 01Apr14 until 31Aug14, the strategy was unmanaged and is replicated by the benchmark.
Benchmark Barclays Global Aggregate Hedged
Currency USD
Time period 31.7.2008 – 31.01.2016
3 years Fund Benchmark
Volatility (p.a.) 3.67 % 2.69 %
Sharp Ratio (p.a.) 1.27 1.18
Tracking Error (p.a.) 3.08 %
Beta 0.77
Information Ratio (p.a.) 0.48
Correlation 0.57
90100110120130140150160170180190200210220
Aug
08
Nov
08
Mar
09
Jul 0
9N
ov 0
9M
ar 1
0Ju
l 10
Nov
10
Mar
11
Jul 1
1N
ov 1
1M
ar 1
2Ju
l 12
Nov
12
Mar
13
Jul 1
3N
ov 1
3M
ar 1
4Ju
l 14
Nov
14
Mar
15
Jul 1
5N
ov 1
5
Amundi AM Strategy not managedBenchmark Manager track record
-0,73 -0,73
2,30
4,945,82
10,45
1,46 1,460,62
3,454,24 4,71
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
Manager track record Benchmark
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
Vontobel Quality Growth Funds – Fund, Benchmark and Relative Returns
Source: Vontobel Asset Management AG. Table shows performance relative to the fund›s benchmark over the selected time periods and the reference currency. Calculation of the performance figures is based on the B share class with a 50% reduction in the management fee. An institutional share class (I) is available for institutional investors. The I share class has a 50% reduced management fee compared to the B share class. The I share classes were launched subsequently to the B share class data above. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future performance. Performance data does not take account of commission or costs charged when units are issued or redeemed.
M&G Dynamic Allocation
Mixto Flexible EUR- Global
Rentabilidad 3 años: 3,55%
Volatilidad 3 años: 6,72%
M&G Global Floating Rate
High Yield
RF Bonos Alto Rendimiento Global
Rentabilidad 1 año: -2,09% **
Volatilidad 1 año: 2,52%
M&G Pan European Dividend
RV Europa Alto Dividendo
Rentabilidad 3 años: 9,26%
Volatilidad 3 años: 11,86%
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
* Rentabilidades pasadas no garantizan rentabilidades futuras. Rentabilidad a fecha 29/02/2016. ** Rentabilidad a un año acumulada.
M&G Pan European Dividend - RV Europa Alto Dividendo
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
Phil Cliff’s performance track recordTen years of excellent returns in European equities
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Returns.in.euros.(rebased.to.100.as.at.12.July.2004).
Career%cumulative%return:%164%
MSCI%Europe%Index%cumulative%return:%106%
Pan%European%Accelerando%Fund:%76.2%
MSCI%Europe%Index:61.5%
Quartile%ranking1:%1
European%Focus%Fund:G0.4%
MSCI%Europe%Index:%G11.5%
Quartile%ranking2:%1
Pan%European%Dividend%Fund:%50.3%
MSCI%Europe%Index:%44.4%
Quartile%ranking3:%1
Threadneedle%(July.04.– August.07).
Occam(September.08.–October.11)
M&G(April.12–Present)
Career%annualised%returns*:
Phil. Cliff’s.funds:.10.2%.pa
MSCI.Europe.Index:.7.5%.pa
*Phil&Cliff&combined&performance&of&the&following&funds&and&periods:&Threadneedle&Pan&European&Focus&RN&EUR&(formerly&the&Pan European&Accelerando&fund)&from&12&July&2004&to&16&August&2007,&Liontrust Pan&European&Fund&A&EUR&(formerly&the&Occam&European&Focus&fund)&from&8&September&2008&to&3&October&2011&and&M&G&Pan&European Dividend&EUR&A&from&2&April&2012&to&31&January&2016.&Annualised&returns&over&period&whilst&managing&funds.&
M&G Pan European Dividend - RV Europa Alto Dividendo
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
Diversified sources of performance
Different(parts(of(the(portfolio(perform(at(different(times
Basket'‘hit’' rate' Up'market Down'market
Quality 39% 83%
Assets 68% 61%
Rapid'growth 68% 56%
Different(parts(of(the(portfolio(perform(at(different(times
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
M&G Dynamic Allocation - Mixto Flexible EUR- Global
Los pilares esenciales de nuestra estrategia de inversión
Un#enfoque#sólido#y#repetible
Objetivos*del*fondo
Gestión*de*riesgos
Construcciónde*cartera*
Comportamiento*de*los*inversores
Volatilidad*del*mercado
Evaluación*táctica
Preciosde*los*activos
Análisis*fundamental
Evaluación*estratégica
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
M&G Dynamic Allocation - Mixto Flexible EUR- Global
Cumpliendo nuestra proposición
5,8%
7,0%
3,9%
7,3%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Rentabilidad6anualizada Volatilidad6anualizada
M&G6Dynamic6Allocation6Fund6 Morningstar6EUR6Flexible6Allocation6sector
Source:( Datastream,( Morningstar,( Inc.,(Pan( European( database,( from(31( December(2009( to(31(December( 2015,( euro(A(class(shares, net( income(reinvested,( price(to(price
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
M&G Global Floating Rate High Yield - RF Bonos Alto Rendimiento Global
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
Total-return-(rebased-to-100)
Performance*of*global* IG,*global*HY*and*global*HY*FRN
Comparing fixed income asset classes
High%yield%FRN%has%delivered%lower%volatility%while%generating%income
Volatility* caused*by*‘taper*tantrum’
Global*HY
Global*HY*FRN*Global*IG
Government*bondsellAoff*in*Q2*2015US*HY*sellAoff*as*
oil* prices*plunge,*then*rallies*harder
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
M&G Global Floating Rate High Yield - RF Bonos Alto Rendimiento Global
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
EM
Periphery
UK
Core4Europe4&4Nordics
US
Neutral4position Fund0% 30% 60% 90%
A4&4above
BBB
BB
B
CCC4&4below
NA/NR
Fund positioning
By#region
By#rating
68,6%
29,3%
2,1%
Senior4securedSenior4unsecuredJunior
By#sector By#financial#tier
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Aberdeen Global II European Convertibles Bond Fund
RF Convertibles Europa
Rentabilidad 3 años: 4,56% Volatilidad 3 años: 6,47%
Aberdeen Global – Select Euro
High Yield Bond Fund
RF Bonos Alto Rendimiento EUR
Rentabilidad 3 años: 4,24% Volatilidad 3 años: 3,94%
Aberdeen Global Asia Pacific Equity Fund
RV Asia Pacífico (ex-Japón)
Rentabilidad 3 años: -3,29%
Volatilidad 3 años: 14,74%
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
* Rentabilidades pasadas no garantizan rentabilidades futuras. Rentabilidad a fecha 29/02/2016. ** Rentabilidad a un año acumulada.
Aberdeen Global – Select Euro High Yield Bond Fund
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
High%Yield Europeo:%Rentabilidad%atractiva%con%respecto%a%otros%activos
Rentabilidades pasadas no-garantizan rentabilidades futurasFuente:% Bloomberg,% RIMES?%Returns% in% local%currency%to%31%Dec%15
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Euro%High%Yield Bunds EUROSTOXX S&P500 MSCI%EM%Equity EU%IG%Corp
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
Aberdeen'Global'– Select'Euro'High'Yield'Bond'Fund:'Rentabilidad
Sobresaliendo frente.a.la.masa
Resultados.positivos: 9'de'los'últimos'13'años
Top.quartile.Manager: 7'de'los'últimos'13'años
As'at'31'Dec'15
Source:' Lipper' to'31'Dec'14,' Morningstar' thereafter
^'EHY'Universe
% Annualised.performance3.months 6.months 1.year 2.years 3.years 5.years
Fondo* O0.75 O0.62 3.20 3.14 4.61 5.30
Media'del'sector O2.35 O2.46 O0.99 1.27 3.34 4.33
Quartile 1 1 1 1 1 2
*'net' of'annual' charges,' EUR
Fuente:' Morningstar,' 31'Jan'16
Rentabilidades pasadas no.son.garantía de.rentabilidades futuras
Aberdeen Global – Select Euro High Yield Bond Fund
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
Fuente:' Aberdeen' Asset'Management,' Bloomberg
Beneficios)del)activo
Rentabilidad'de'los'convertibles'en'2015:'ilustrando'sus'beneficios
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
dic'14 ene'15 feb'15 mar'15 abr'15 may'15 jun'15 jul'15 ago'15 sep'15 oct'15 nov'15 dic'15
Thomson'Reuters'Europe Stoxx'Europe'600'(Total'Return)
Aberdeen Global II European Convertibles Bond Fund
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
Aberdeen'Global'II'– European'Convertibles'Bond'FundRentabilidad'en'Euros
Rentabilidaddesde lanzamiento
(acumulado)
Rentabilidad %
2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005
Fondo 108.33 9.86 5.07 9.99 17.66 B8.22 12.61 31.10 B22.73 3.56 14.21 12.20
Indice 98.49 8.83 4.69 11.69 18.46 B9.37 11.31 37.76 B27.09 2.16 16.59 12.01
B3,09 B3,88B2,83 B3,09
1,50
6,08 7,018,25
5,73 5,11
B4,18B5,51 B5,13 B4,18
B0,65
4,34
6,848,08
5,44 4,77
B10
B5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1Mo. 3Mo. 6Mo. YTD 1Yr. 2Yrs'(ann.) 3Yrs'(ann.) 4Yrs'(ann.) 5Yrs'(ann.) Retrun'since'inception' (ann.)
Performance' %Account Benchmark
Rentabilidades= pasadas= no=son=garantía= de=rentabilidades= futuras
Aberdeen Global II European Convertibles Bond Fund
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
Asia%– La%gran%foto de%fondo
Fuente: IMF, OECD, World Population Statistics, Aberdeen Asset Management, 31 Aug 15
Más$del$50%$de$la$población$mundial
Aprox$30%$del$PIB$mundial$(50%$en$2050)
Aprox$50%$de$las$reservas$mundiales
Mayor$capacidad$de$políticas$económicas$y$monetarias
Aberdeen Global Asia Pacific Equity Fund
M E S A R E D O N D A F O N D O S D E I N V E R S I Ó N – B I L B A O , 2 D E M A R Z O
Aberdeen'Global'Asia'Pacific Equity Fund:'Importante'no'seguir'a'las'masas
Con'fines'meramente' ilustrativosIndice:' MSCI'AC'Asia'Pacific'ex'JapanFuente:' MSCI,'Aberdeen' Asset' Management,' 31' Dec'15
El#índice#es#una#medida,#no#un#indicador#de#construcción#de#
carteras
Posicionamiento#por#países#(%) Posicionamiento#por#sectores#(%)
G20
G16
G12
G8
G4
0
4
8
12
16
Singapore
Hong'Kong
India
UK
Philippines
Sri'Lanka
Thailand
Malaysia
Indonesia
New'Zealand
Taiwan
Korea
Australia
China
G8
G6
G4
G2
0
2
4
6
8
Financials
Materials
Industrials
Telecom'Services
Consumer'Staples
Healthcare
Energy
Utilities
Consumer'Discretionary
Information'Technology
Aberdeen Global Asia Pacific Equity Fund
¿ PREGUNTAS ?