presentazione standard di powerpointlamborghini urus v8 325 g/km €214,766 rolls royce cullinan v12...
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Team Purosangue
Emanuele Fino
Giovanni Nocera
Lorenzo Risetti
Matteo Antoniotti
Pietro Amin Puddu
CFA Institute Research Challenge
Milano, 3th March 2020
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01/2016 01/2017 01/2018 01/2019 01/2020 01/2021
TARGET PRICE: € 185.9UPSIDE: +21.4%
BUY
CLOSING PRICE: € 153.157th February 2020
ListingNYSE (RACE.US)
Borsa Italiana (RACE.MI)
Market Cap€ 28.5 B
Float: 61.2%
BRAND EXCLUSIVITY
STRONG PRICING POWER
NEW MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
CLEVER RISK MANAGEMENT
THE COMPANY INDUSTRY FINANCIAL VALUATION CG & RISKS
BORN TO RACE...
2020
16 Constructor Championship15 Drivers World Titles
1947
1947Enzo Ferrari foundthe Company in MaranelloFirst Ferrari built
1960s-1970sFerrari becomes a Limited Company.Agreement with FIAT with a 50% share participation.
2000s-2010sCelebrating 13° World Title in Formula 1.New branding policy and continuous market expansion
2010-presentFerrari spin-off and IPO with a DNA ticker: RACE
Worldwide recognized asthe strongest brand
THE COMPANY INDUSTRY FINANCIAL VALUATION CG & RISKS
78%14%
5%
3%
Cars & Spare Parts Sponsorship, Commercial & Brand Engines Other
€ 3.8 B REVENUES
10131
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4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
CARS SHIPMENTS
SPORT GRAN TURISMO SPECIAL SERIES ICONA
…ON THE ROAD
THE COMPANY INDUSTRY FINANCIAL VALUATION CG & RISKS
RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENTFORMULA 1 TRANSFER OF KNOW-HOW
NO-ONE ACCOUNTS >10% OF TOTAL PROCUREMENT COSTS
MAKE-OR-BUY STRATEGY ORIENTED TO
IN-HOUSE PRODUCTION
PRESERVE KNOW-HOW MAJOR FLEXIBILITY
NO STRICT SUPPLIER DEPENDENCE
MARANELLO: HOUSE OF MADE IN ITALY
V8 V12
ENGINES BODY ASSEMBLY PAINTING ASSEMBLY & FINAL CHECK PERSONALIZATION & ROAD TESTFINISHING AND CLEANING
THE COMPANY INDUSTRY FINANCIAL VALUATION CG & RISKS
A STRATEGIC MARKET PRESENCE
EMEA AMERICAS MAINLAND CHINA HONG KONG & TAIWAN
REST OF APAC
60 MARKETS 166 AUTHORIZED DEALERS 187 POINT OF SALES
48% 29% 8% 15%
THE BEST SALE AND AFTER SALE CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE
MAINTANANCE & WARRANTY
HIGH AFTERMARKET VALUE
CUSTOMERS DEDICATED EVENTS
REPEATED PURCHAHESCUSTOMER LOYALTY
THE COMPANY INDUSTRY FINANCIAL VALUATION CG & RISKS
LUXURY
Top-qualityTechnologicalknow-how
AUTOMOTIVE
A UNIQUE POSITIONING IN THE MARKET
Exclusivity High capital intensity
CLOSER TO A DIAMOND RATHER THAN A CAR
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08/01/2016 08/01/2017 08/01/2018 08/01/2019 08/01/2020
RACE PRICE MWI - PLI INDEX MWI - AUTOMOTIVE INDEXOPERATING MARGIN
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
FERRARI
LUXURY
AUTOMOTIVE
2015 2016 2017 2018
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
FERRARI
LUXURY
AUTOMOTIVE
2015 2016 2017 2018
ROIC
THE COMPANY INDUSTRY FINANCIAL VALUATION CG & RISKS
THE COMPANY INDUSTRY FINANCIAL VALUATION CG & RISKS
0
5
10
15
20
25
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
Million
HIGH NET WORTH INDIVIDUAL
Wealthy customer target> € 1 mln liquid asset
Bullish trend expectation+6.21% CAGR 19E-22E
> 18 mln HNWI in 2019Market penetration of 0.05%
ʺPRODUCE ONE CAR LESS THAN THE MARKET DEMANDʺ
THE COMPANY INDUSTRY FINANCIAL VALUATION CG & RISKS
300
340
380
420
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
100
150
200
250
300
2016 TARGET 2021 TARGET 2025 TARGET 2030
EU market
CO2 EMISSION STANDARD (g/km)
US marketSF90 STRADALE
1000 HP0-100 Km/h in 2.5 s
60% OF HYBRID/MIX TARGET IN 2022
HYBRIDIZATION OF THE LINE-UP
PROFITABLE PRICE/MIX
First plug-in hybrid model
CO2 LEVELS REDUCTION
Rumored price >€500k
COMPETITOR MODEL CO2 EMISSION PRICE
LAMBORGHINI
URUS V8 325 g/Km €214,766
ROLLS ROYCE
CULLINAN V12 341 g/Km ∼€380,000
BENTLEY
BENTAYGA ONYX W12
MULLINER W12
296 g/Km
296 g/Km
€195,220
€302,100
THE COMPANY INDUSTRY FINANCIAL VALUATION CG & RISKS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
USA - CAGR 9% China - CAGR 14%
EU - CAGR 15% World- CAGR 12%
SUVs % IN AUTOMOTIVE MARKET
FERRARI UTILITY VEHICLEPUROSANGUE
NEW MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
THE COMPANY INDUSTRY FINANCIAL VALUATION CG & RISKS
STRONG REVENUES GROWTH
€ 3.8B
€ 5.2B
€ 6.4B
€ 0
€ 1
€ 2
€ 3
€ 4
€ 5
€ 6
€ 7
€ 8
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
B
FY19-FY25 CAGR +9.2%~€ 6.4B OF TOTAL REVENUES IN FY25E
TWO GROWTH PHASES
THE COMPANY INDUSTRY FINANCIAL VALUATION CG & RISKS
€ 278.887
€ 391.811
€10.131
13.628
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
AVERAGE MODEL PRICE SHIPMENT
€ 3.359.588.000
€ 5.529.878.000
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
CARS AND SPARE PARTS
CAR REVENUES ESTIMATION MODEL
THE COMPANY INDUSTRY FINANCIAL VALUATION CG & RISKS
SECOND-ROW REVENUES IMPACT
OTHER REVENUES• FERRARI FINANCIAL SERVICES FFS INC.
• MUGELLO RACETRACK MANAGEMENT
ENGINES• V6 MASERATI SUPPLY
• F1 RENTAL ENGINES
ENDING AGREEMENT IN FY22
HAAS & ALFA ROMEO RACING TEAM
SPONSORSHIP, COMMERCIAL& BRAND
• SPONSORSHIP & COMMERCIAL (F1 ACTIVITIES)
• BRAND DIVERSIFICATION STRATEGY
BRAND EXTENSION
ENTERTAINMENT
CAR ADJACENCIES
THE COMPANY INDUSTRY FINANCIAL VALUATION CG & RISKS
€ 700
425 425 425 425
0 €
150 €
300 €
450 €
600 €
750 €
900 €
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
K
R&D costs BUDGET CAP
€ 800
0 €
150 €
300 €
450 €
600 €
750 €
900 €
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
F1 2021 BUDGET CAP FUELING FUTURE GROWTH
CAPEX
THE COMPANY INDUSTRY FINANCIAL VALUATION CG & RISKS
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
DAYS INVENTORY OUTSTANDING
STRONG CASH FLOW GENERATION
2.22
4,30
5.355.70
5.98 6.17
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
FREE CASH FLOW PER SHARE
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0,0 €
0,5 €
1,0 €
1,5 €
2,0 €
2,5 €
3,0 €
3,5 €
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
B EBITDA EBITDA MARGIN
~ € 2.7B EBITDA FY 2025 ~ 42% MARGIN
CLEVER INVENTORY MANAGEMENT STRONG LIQUIDITY POSITION • BUYBACK PROGRAM• INDUSTRIAL NET DEBT FREE
THE COMPANY INDUSTRY FINANCIAL VALUATION CG & RISKS
TARGET PRICE: € 185.9UPSIDE: + 21.4%
BUY
VALUATION METHODOLOGY
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
STRONG TOP-LINE ASSUMPTIONSNO LISTED COMPARABLES IN LUXURY CAR
VALUATION
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01/2016 01/2017 01/2018 01/2019 01/2020 01/2021
THE COMPANY INDUSTRY FINANCIAL VALUATION CG & RISKS
RELATIVE VALUATION - WHY NOT
EV/EBITDA fwd 15.4x
RR 2020 28.3%
R2 0.06ENTERPRISE VALUE APPROACH
OUTPUT 17.4x
ELEVATED CAPITAL INTENSITY
HIGH MARGINS & RETURNS
AUTOMOTIVE
LUXURY
FERRARIUNIQUE CHARACTERISTICS
TP € 174.20
R2 0.29
EQUITY APPROACH
P/E fwd 38.8x
EPS GROWTH 2020 6.4%OUTPUT 33.2x
TP € 131.15
FY 2020-20221st STAGE
LINE-UP HYBRIDIZATION
FY 2023-20252nd STAGE
REVENUES CONSOLIDATION PHASECAPEX AND R&D DECLINE
TERMINAL VALUE3rd stage
WACC 6.74%GLOBAL LTGR 2.85%
THE COMPANY INDUSTRY FINANCIAL VALUATION CG & RISKS
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
LONG TERM GROWTH RATE
WA
CC
186 1,85% 2,35% 2,85% 3,35% 3,85%
5,74% + 20% + 36% + 58% + 89% + 136%
6,24% + 8% + 21% + 37% + 59% + 90%
6,74% - 1% + 9% + 21% + 38% + 59%
7,24% - 9% - 1% + 9% + 22% + 38%
7,74% - 16% - 9% - 0% + 10% + 22%
15,42 %
84,58 %
€ 185.9
2.22
4.305.35
2020 2021 2022
FREE CASH FLOW PER SHARE
5.70 5.98 6.17
2023 2024 2025
LONG-TERM GROWTH 2060 GDP PROJECTION WEIGHTED
OECD 71%NON-OECD 29%
PRICE TARGETSENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
THE COMPANY INDUSTRY FINANCIAL VALUATION CG & RISKS
AN EXPERTISE BOARD OF DIRECTORS
EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN
CEOEXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
VICE CHAIRMANNON-EXECUTIVE
JOHN ELKANN LOUIS CAMILLERI PIERO FERRARI
Philipp Morris Int. Chairman
FCA NV ChairmanExor NV Chairman/CEO
HPE-COXA ChairmanFERRETTI GROUP Vice President
NON-EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS
• Sergio Duca – BoD Chairman of Ferrari NV
• Delphine Arnault – BoD member of LVMH
• Giuseppina Capaldo – BoD member of Salini ImpregiroSpA and TIM SpA
• Eddy Cue – Apple Inc. Senior Vice-President
• Maria Patrizia Grieco – BoD Chairman of Enel SpA
• Adam Keswick – Matheson & Co Ltd Chairman, Rothschild & Co Deputy Chairman
• Elena Zambon – President of Zambon SpA, Bod member of Unicredit SpA
WORKING PLACE• FORMULA UOMO• TOP EMPLOYER ITALY 2020
THE COMPANY INDUSTRY FINANCIAL VALUATION CG & RISKS
ESG
ENVIRONMENT• NETZEB MARANELLO BUILDINGS• CARBON NEUTRALITY IN CHINA• MUGELLO SUSTAINABILITY PROGRAM
EDUCATION• MUNER PARTNER• MBA EXECUTIVE PROGRAM• FERRARI DRIVER ACADEMY
ENVIRONMENTAL &SOCIAL
GOVERNANCECORPORATE• SUSTAINABILITY REPORT• STANDARD ETHICS INDEX GRADE INCREASED TO «E+»
THE COMPANY INDUSTRY FINANCIAL VALUATION CG & RISKS
$ £ ¥
PROBABILITY
IMPA
CT
RISKS
RECOMMENDATION
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01/2016 01/2017 01/2018 01/2019 01/2020 01/2021
TARGET PRICE: € 185.9UPSIDE: +21.4%
BUY
BRAND EXCLUSIVITY
STRONG PRICING POWER
NEW MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
CLEVER RISK MANAGEMENT
LIGHTS OUT…ENJOY THE RACE!
Team Purosangue
Emanuele Fino
Giovanni Nocera
Lorenzo Risetti
Matteo Antoniotti
Pietro Amin Puddu
Q&A
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
APPENDIX
BUSINESS & INDUSTRY
COMPETITORS
PHASE/IN PHASE/OUT
SWOT ANALYSIS
P5F’S ANALYSIS
BRAND DIVERSIFICATION
LUXURY SUVs
SVM STATUS
FINANCIALS
REVENUES ESTIMATION MODEL
KEY COST DRIVERS
DEBT & LIQUIDITY
VALUATION
BETA
WACC
LT GROWTH
ESG
SHAREHOLDER STRUCTURE
APPENDIX - COMPETITORS
COMPETITOR MODEL HP 0-100 MAX SPEED
CO2 EMISSION (combined)
STARTING PRICE (€)
FERRARI
812 SUPERFAST V12 812 GTS V12 F8 SPIDER V8 F8 TRIBUTO V8 SF90 STRADALE V8 – HYBRID PORTOFINO V8 GTC4 LUSSO V12 GTC4 LUSSO T V8 488 PISTA V8 488 PISTA SPIDER V8 ROMA V8
800 800 720 720 780+220 600 689 610 720 720 620
2.9s – 340 Km/h 2.9s – 340 Km/h 2.9s – 340 Km/h 2.9s – 340 Km/h 2.5s – 340 Km/h 3.5s – 320 Km/h 3.4s – 335 Km/h 3.5s – 320 Km/h 2.8s – 340 Km/h 2.8s – 340 Km/h 3.4s – 320 Km/h
366 g/Km 373 g/Km 298 g/Km 292 g/Km N/A 267 g/Km 366 g/Km 294 g/Km 282 g/Km 289 g/Km N/A
303,727 336,000 262,000 236,000 ∼ 550,000 198,061 273,060 236,525 296,000 326,400 ∼ 200,000
LAMBORGHINI
HURACAN EVO V10 HURACAN EVO SPIDER HURACAN EVO RWD AVENTADOR S V12 AVENTADOR SVJ AVENTADOR S ROADSTER AVENTADOR SVJ ROADSTER
640 640 610 740 770 740 770
2.9s – 325 Km/h 3.1s – 325Km/h 3.3s – 325Km/h 2.9s – 350 Km/h 2.8s – 350 Km/h 3.0s – 350 Km/h 2.9s – 351 Km/h
332 g/Km 338 g/Km 330 g/Km 499 g/Km 486 g/Km 499 g/Km 486 g/Km
226,521 248,973 194,520 345,701 432,181 384,510 474,149
MCLAREN
540 C V8 570 S V8 570 S SPIDER V8 570 GT V8 600 LT V8 600 LT SPIDER V8 NEW GT V8
540 570 570 570 600 600 620
3.5s – 320 Km/h 3.2s – 328 Km/h 3.2s – 328 Km/h 3.4s – 328 Km/h 2.9s – 328 Km/h 2.9s – 324 Km/h 3.2s – 326 Km/h
249 g/Km 249 g/Km 249 g/Km 249 g/Km 266 g/Km 266 g/Km 245 g/km
176,000 194,000 214,450 204,500 236,000 256,500 203,000
ASTON MARTIN
VANTAGE DB11 COUPE V8 DB11 VOLANTE V8 DB11 AMR V12 DBS SUPERLEGGERA V12
510 510 510 639 725
3.16 – 314 Km/h 3.9s – 300 Km/h 3.9s – 300 Km/h 3.7s – 322 Km/h 3.6s – 340 Km/h
236 g/Km 230 g/Km 230 g/Km 265 g/Km 285 g/Km
162,582 188,162 203,541 264,639 282,428
ROLLS ROYCE
WRAITH DAWN
632 571
4.6s – 250 Km/h 5.0s – 330 Km/h
327 g/Km 330 g/Km
300,000 355,000
BENTLEY
CONTINENTAL GT W12 CONTINENTAL GT V8 CONVERT CONTINENTAL GT V8 SC CONTINENTAL GT W12 CONVERT
635 507 529 590
3.7s – 333 Km/h 5.0s – 308 Km/h 4.7s – 308 Km/h 4.7s – 315 Km/h
308 g/Km 254 g/Km 258 g/Km 333 g/Km
210,500 247,976 267,740 273,962
COMPETITIVE REQUIREMENTS
• TWO-DOOR
• >500 HP
• > € 150,000 STARTING PRICE (INCL. VAT)
MODEL PRICE ENGINE TYPE 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022SPORT
458 ITALIA 197,000 € V8458 SPIDER 228,750 € V8
F12 BERLINETTA 270,000 € V12488 SPIDER 326,400 € V8
488 GTB 236,000 € V8812 SF 303,727 € V12
F8 TRIBUTO 236,000 € V8 SF90 STRADALE 550,000 € V8 HYBRID
812 GTS 336,000 € V12F8 SPIDER 262,000 € V8
Average price per segment/year 294,588 € 231,917 € 255,538 € 251,630 € 277,467 € 284,032 € 269,864 € 258,576 € 337,545 € 346,000 € 346,000 € GT
CALIFORNIA 30 123,900 € V8FF 264,334 € V12
CALIFORNIA T 189,700 € V8GTC4 LUSSO 273,060 € V12
GTC4 LUSSO T 236,525 € V8PORTOFINO 198,061 € V8
ROMA 200,000 € V8Average price per segment/year 229,448 € 194,117 € 192,645 € 227,017 € 242,365 € 233,095 € 235,882 € 235,882 € 211,529 € 199,031 € 275,000 €
SPECIAL SERIES458 SPECIALE 239,000 € V8
458 SPECIALE A 350,000 € V8F12 TDF 350,000 € V12
488 PISTA 296,000 € V8488 PISTA SPIDER 326,400 € V8
Average price per segment 312,280 € 239,000 € 294,500 € 313,000 € 350,000 € 350,000 € 296,000 € 311,200 € 311,200 € 326,400 € ICONA
Monza SP1 1,200,000 € V12Monza SP2 1,600,000 € V12
Average price per segment/year 1,400,000 € 1,400,000 € 1,400,000 € 1,400,000 €
Phase-in Phase-out Business Plan
APPENDIX - MODELS PHASE IN/PHASE OUT
APPENDIX - SWOT ANALYSIS
STRENGHTS
WEAKNESSES
OPPORTUNITIES
THREATS
• BRAND EXCLUSIVITY• MAKE-OR-BUY STRATEGY
IN-HOUSE ORIENTED• WAITING LIST STRATEGY• CUSTOMER LOYALTY
• AFTERMARKET VALUE• HIGH-TECHNOLOGICAL
PRODUCTS• F1 RACING ACTIVITIES
• CURRENT CO2 EMISSIONS• RACING RESULTS BELOW
EXPECTATION• POTENTIAL REVERSE EFFECT
CONNECTED TO WAITING LISTS (SWITCH CUSTOMER CHOICE)
• HIGH FACILITIES GEOGRAPHICAL CONCENTRATION
• NEW GENERATION ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS
• CUSTOMER CHOICE MOVING TOWARDS ELECTRIC VEHICLE
• LOSS OF SVM STATUS• NEW POTENTIAL
COMPETITORS IN F1 FROM 2021
• SUVs MARKET• HYBRID SEGMENT• BRAND DIVERSIFICATION STRATEGY
APPENDIX - PORTER’S FIVE FORCES
BUYER POWER
SUPPLIERPOWER
THREAT OFPOTENTIALENTRANTS
EXTRA-INDUSTRY
SUBSTITUTES
COMPETITINGRIVARLY
BUYER POWER
SUPPLIERPOWER
THREAT OFPOTENTIALENTRANTS
EXTRA-INDUSTRY
SUBSTITUTES
COMPETITINGRIVARLY
APPENDIX - BRAND DIVERSIFICATION STRATEGY
€899 PILOTA EVO
LIMITED EDITION (499)SOURCE: STORE.FERRARI.COM
€ 15,500 SF01 BIANCHI
LIMITED EDITION (12)SOURCE: STORE.FERRARI.COM
BRAND EXTENSION
ENTERTAINMENT
CAR ADJACENCIES
▪ OVERHAUL 50% OF EXISTING LICENSEE
▪ CLEARANCE 30% OF ACTUAL PRODUCT CATEGORIES
▪ ELEVATE STANDARDS & QUALITY OF GOODS
▪ GIORGIO ARMANI LONG-TERM MANUFACTURING AGREEMENT
▪ DRIVER ACADEMY PARTICIPATION IN F1 ESPORTS
▪ MONO-BRAND ESPORTS CHAMPIONSHIP
▪ EXPAND LICENSEE RELATED TO FERRARI THEME PARKS
▪ LUXURY PRODUCTS & ONE-OFFS FOR MOST VALUED CUSTOMERS
▪ STARRED RESTAURANT OPENING IN MARANELLO (2H 2020)
BUSINESS PLAN TARGET FOR BRAND ACTIVITIES
10% OF EBIT WITHIN 7/10 YEARS
APPENDIX - KEY COST DRIVERS
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Aluminium
Platinum
Lithium
Glass
Labour Market Europe
Titanium
Iron
Plastics
Source: Goldman Sachs report Cars - 2025
Source: XGBoost F-SCORE - Team Computation
FEATURE IMPORTANCE IN TERMS OF GENERATING A BETTER ACCURACY AND PREDICTIONS ON UP AND DOWNSIDES OF COGS
TOWARDS HEAVY BATTERIES: LOW-WEIGHT MATERIALS
AVG. PRICECOMBUSTION ENGINE
MODEL
AVG. PRICEHYBRID ENGINE
MODEL
AVG. PRICETOTAL
FERRARI FLEET
CARS AND SPARE PARTS REVENUESESTIMATION MODEL
2016 2017 2018 2019
WEIGHTED PRICE
€ 271,686 €272,709 €260,035 €278,887
% 4.1% 0.4% -4.6% 7.2%
€ 284.629 € 290.489
€ 296.471 € 302.575
€ 308.805 € 315.163
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
CAGR 2.06%
BEST-IN CLASS 2019 MODEL
ENGINE PRICE
812 GTS COMBUSTION € 336,000
SF90 STRADALE HYBRID € 550,000
AVG. PRICE 2019COMBUSTION ENGINE MODEL
€ 278,886
HYBRID EXTRA-PRICE 38.9%
HYBRID ENGINE MODEL ESTIMATE
€ 387,399
278.887 €
368.573 €
391.811 €
20%
40%
60%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
200.000 €
250.000 €
300.000 €
350.000 €
400.000 €
450.000 €
MODEL AVG PRICE HYBRID WEIGHT
AVG. MODEL PRICE 10,33% 9,71% 9,18% 2,06% 2,06% 2,06%
SHIPMENTS 4,07% 5,85% 5,53% 5,24% 4,98% 4,74%
CARS AND SPARE PARTS 14,82% 16,13% 15,22% 7,41% 7,14% 6,90%
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
APPENDIX – CARS AND SPARE PARTS REVENUES ESTIMATION MODEL
0
1500
3000
4500
6000
7500
9000
2016 2017 2018 annualized 2019
LAMBORGHINI
URUS Units TOTAL Units Lineare (TOTAL Units)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2016 2017 2018 annualized 2019
ROLLS-ROYCE
CULLINAN Units TOTAL Units
COMPETITOR * MODEL HP0-100 /
MAX SPEED
CO2 EMISSION
(combined)STARTING PRICE
LAMBORGHINI URUS V8 650 3.6s – 305 Km/h 325 g/Km €214,766
MERCEDES MAYBACH GLS 600 4MATIC V8 ** 550+21 4.8s – 250 Km/h NA ∼€200,000
ASTON MARTIN DBX V8 ** 550 4.5s – 291 Km/h 325 g/Km €224,663
ROLLS ROYCE CULLINAN V12 571 5.2s – 250 Km/h 341 g/Km ∼€380,000
BENTLEY
BENTAYGA ONYX W12
BENTAYGA SPEED W12 **
MULLINER W12
608
635
608
4.1s – 301 Km/h
3.9s – 306 Km/h
4.1s – 301 Km/h
296 g/Km
335 g/Km
296 g/Km
€195,220
€245,220
€302,100
*Models list includes only vehicles with >500hp and a starting price of >150k € (VAT inc) **Sales starting from 2020
APPENDIX – LUXURY SUVs
Market RegulatorProduced/Imported
Total actualshipments
SVM status car limits
Exceeding/(room available)
CHINA CAFC Imported 836 2,000 (1,164)
AMERICA EPA Produced 2,900 5,000 (2,100)
EUROPE EU Produced 4,628 10,000 (5,372)
WORLDWIDE NHTSA Produced 10,131 10,000 -131
SVM status
✓
✓
✓
x
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
20000
2019 2020 E 2021 E 2022 E 2023 E 2024 E 2025 E
FY 2019 FY 2025 E
Total shipments 10,131 13,628
Total units limit* 17,000 17,000
Total room available 8,505 5,008
*Sum of SVM status limit of EPA, EU and CHINAFerrari total shipment Total room available
Starting from the FY 2019, Ferrari has lost the Small Volume Manufacture status for the NHTSA standard, exceeding 10,000 units shipments.
If the average fuel economy of Ferrari's annual fleet of vehicle production falls below the applicable requirement, the manufacturer must either apply sufficient CAFE credits to cover the shortfall or pay a penalty, currently $5.50 per 0.1 mpg under the standard, multiplied by the manufacturer's total production for the U.S. domestic market.
Therefore, the potential NHTSA fine will be of $8,151,909 (0,2% of Total Net Revenue), calculated as the multiplication of the MPG exceeded by Ferrari 2019 Fleet (314 g/km or 20.87 MPG vs 35.5 MPG limit) of 14.73 MPG per the total shipment (10,131).
APPENDIX – SMALL VOLUME MANUFACTURE STATUS
-690
-508
-370 -337
2016 2017 2018 2019
APPENDIX – DEBT COMPOSITION
NET INDUSTRIAL DEBT GROSS DEBT MATURITY PROFILE
€ mln 2020 2021 2022 2023 2029 2031
US Securitizations 338 277 141 32 - -
Bond - 500 - 385 - -
Notes - - - - 150 150
-2.090
60 898 30
-1.192 -855 -337
350
1.248
TOTAL DEBT
of which : Leaseliabilities as per
IFRS 16CASH AND CASH
EQUIVALENTS
of which:FINANCIALSERVICES
ACTIVITIES NET DEBT
NET DEBT OFFINANCIALSERVICES
ACTIVITIESNET INDUSTRIAL
DEBT
UNDRAWNCOMMITTEDCREDIT LINES
TOTAL AVAILABLELIQUIDITY
FY 2019
APPENDIX – SHAREHOLDER STRUCTURE
61,2%10,2%
23,9%
4,7%
Free Float (185.9 M)
Piero Ferrari
Exor NV
Treasury Shares
Investors Amount %
BlackRock 18’128’138 9,75%
Baillie Gifford 13’579’009 7,31%
Vanguard Group 3’799’059 2,04%
Canada PensionPlan Investment
2’645’589 1,42%
AKO Capital 2’558’461 1,38%
D1 Capital 2’511’311 1,35%
Winslow Capital Management
2’175’588 1,17%
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORSSHAREHOLDER COMPOSITION
Source: FactSet, Bloomberg
€ 1.5B BUYBACK PROGRAM FY18-FY22
BUYBACK PROGRAM FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 E FY 2021 E FY 2022 EShares Outstanding (k) 187,921 185,865 183,659 181,452 179,245
Cumulated Equivalent Buyback Program (€k) 100,093 486,093 824,062 1,162,031 1,500,000
Shares buybacked (k) 1,033 3,971 6,178 8,385 10,591
Buyback Equivalent Yearly (€k) - 386,000 337,969 337,969 337,969
Buyback to be executed at FY19 (€k) 1,013,907 €
Yearly spending up to FY2022 (€k) 337,969 € Source: Team Assumptions & EstimatesBuyback calculated at actual price €153,15
APPENDIX – WACC CALCULATION
Risk free rate10-years Italian Government Bond yield at 07/02/2020
Parameter Value
Risk free rate 0.94%
Beta 0.84
Market Risk Premium 7.37%
Cost of Equity (Ke) 7.20%
Cost of Debt (Kd) 2.01%
D/E 0.07
Tax rate 27.00%
WACC = 6.74%
BetaRACE vs FTSE MIB – last 104 weeks
Market Risk PremiumItalian MRP calculated by Damodaran (January 2020)
Cost of Equity (Ke)CAPM formula: Rf + β * MRP
Cost of Debt (Kd)Net Financial Expenses divided by the Net Debt
D/EDebt (2,088,588) divided by Market Equity (28,465,366)
Tax rateNormalised value, confirmed by the sum of local taxes
y = 0.84x + 0.0044R² = 0.3
-15,00%
-10,00%
-5,00%
0,00%
5,00%
10,00%
15,00%
-6,00% -4,00% -2,00% 0,00% 2,00% 4,00% 6,00%
FTSE
MIB
RACE
APPENDIX – BETA CALCULATION
BETA +
1.14
BETA -
0.53
BETA
0.84
APPENDIX – LT GROWTH RATE
3,0% 3,0% 3,0%
7,0%
5,0%
2,5%
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
7,0%
8,0%
2010 2020 2060
OECD non-OECD
RESEARCH PAPER «LOOKING TO 2060: LONG-TERM GLOBAL GROWTH PROSPECTS» [2012]
OECD COUNTRIES
71%
NON-OECD COUNTRIES
29%
WEIGHTED LTGR
2.85%
FERRARI DEALERS GEOGRAPHICAL PRESENCE