prof. dr. wang yiwei （王义桅） director of institute of international affairs renmin...
TRANSCRIPT
Prof. Dr. WANG Yiwei（王义桅）
Director of Institute of International Affairs
Renmin University of China
Senior Fellow of RDCY
OBOR and the Revival of Civilizations
1
EN
1. Why Silk Road?2. Why China?3. Why Now?4. Why Good for the World?
Content
How It was Like
And Full of Problems
16 世纪欧洲现代化崛起古丝绸之路消逝
Transport and logistic routes for trading and cultural exchanges
between East and West.
http://www.gettyimages.com/
UNESCO, UNDP, Japan, US, Iran, Russia, Khazakstan, ROK…
Many tried to re-establish the concept, with different contents and for different ends
In the past 30 Years
Lost, but Never Forgotten
Planned to Be This
BUT EVER SO GREAT IS OBOR LATE 2013
BUT WHAT IS IT?
Interconnectivity: of transportation in the air, on land and
sea, oil and gas pipelines, and telecommunications
For 65 countries and regions A giant economy of 4.4 billion on a
planet of some 7 billion
One Belt
Traditional Industry Belt
Yangtze River
Second Eurasian Land Bridge
One Road
One Belt
One RoadYangtz
e River
RussiaMongolia
Russia
ROKDPRKJapan
Asia-Pacific
ASEANSouth Asia, Indochina
Russia, Central Asia, Europe
Second Eurasian Land Bridge
Traditional Industry Belt
16
国际合作复兴丝绸之路，建设欧亚大市场
中国东北振兴
战略与俄罗
斯东西伯利亚
和远东开发
战略对接
中巴经济走廊
中缅印孟经济走廊
TRACECA
南北交通走廊
跨欧亚发展带
北方海航线
美国新丝绸之路
区域全面合作关系 RCEP
Provinces, Municipalities, and Autonomous Regions in the Belt
Region Role Hub
Xinjiang
(Autonomous Region)
Core of the Belt Urumqi, Kashgar
Gansu
(Province)
Gold area of the Belt Lanzhou, Baiyin, Jiuquan
Ningxia
(Autonomous Region)
Underpinning Ningxia
Yunnan
(Province)
Position of Strength, Hub of the Channels
Guangxi(Province)
Portal to SE Asia
Shaanxi
(Province)
Underpinning Xi' an
Qinghai
(Province)
Major theater for westward opening Xining, Haidong, Golmud
Sichuan
(Province)
Transportation Nexus and Economic Hinterland
Chongqing
(Special Municipality)
Transportation centre in upper Yangtze River, thus an inland highlight Chongqing
Provinces, Municipalities, and Autonomous Regions on the Road
Region Role Hub
Fujian Core Area Fuzhou, Xiamen, Quanzhou, Pingtan
Guangdong Bridgehead Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Huizhou
Jiangsu Intersection of the Road Xuzhou, Lianyungang
Zhejiang Pioneer of economic and trade cooperation,
Pilot of Internet Silk Road, Nexus for trade
and logistics
Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou
Hainan Gateway and strategic support of the Road Haikou, Sanya
CoverageRegion Country/Region Numbers
Central Asia Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan,
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South East Asia
Indonesia, Cambodia, East Timor, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar
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South Asia Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka
8
Central and East Europe
Poland, Montenegro, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia
16
West Asia and North Africa
Iran, Syria, Jordan, Israel, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Yemen Republic
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CIS and others
Belorussia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia
6
And What We Do?
One Concept: OBOR, as One is where all Universe Starts
Two Underpinning: Belt and RoadThree Principles: Shared interest+Shared
Responsibility=Shared DestinyFour Keys: Connectivity in capacity, strategy,
industry, for Third-Party Markets.Five Sectors: Policy, Facilities, Trade, Financing,
People-to-peopleSix Ways: Six Economic Corridors of New Eurasian
Land Bridge, China-Mongolia-Russia, China-Central Asia-West Asia, China-Indochina, China-Pakistan, and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar
What Connectivity is Interconnectivity?
policy coordinationInfrastructureunimpeded tradefinancial integration people-to-people bonds
New Eurasian Continental BridgeJiangsu and Shandong Coast
to
Kazakhstan
Russia
Belorussia
to
Mediterranean
Chinese Cities
Lianyungang, Qingdao, Rizhao, Xuzhou, Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Xi`an, Lanzhou, Urumqi
Resources Abroad
Caspian BasinSouth Turgai Oil and Gas FieldTurgai Depression Iron Mine,Chu-Sarisu River Uranium Mine
Dev-Zones in China
Khorgos Dev-Zone ， Astana Dev-Zone in Kazakhstan
China-Russia-Mongolia Economic Corridor
Chinese Cities
Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Shenyang, Changchun, Harbin
Resources Abroad
West Siberian Oil and Gas Fields, Mongolian Gobi Coal and Copper Mine, Choibalsan Uranium-Lead-Zinc Mine, Metallogenic Zones in Russian Far-East
Dev-ZonesIn China
Manzhouli, Erenhot, Suifenhe(Dongning),Yanji(Changbai) Key Pilot Dev-Zone
From Tianjin and Dalian to the Baltic
through
Erenhot, Manzhouli Suifenhe
Mongolia, Russia
China-Central Asia- West AsiaUrumqi
Kazakhstan
Kyrzhyzstan
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan
Iran, Turkey
Persian Gulf
Mediterranean
Arabian Peninsula
Chinese Cities
Xining, Yinchuan, Kashgar, Urumqi
Resources Abroad
Oil and Gas in Karakum, Fergana, Caspian Sea, North Ustyurt, Azadegan, Yadavaran, Pars, Metal Ore in Tianshan and Chu-Iliyskiy, Rich Sylvate in East Turkmenistan
Dev-Zones in China
Kashgar, Erenhot, Suifenhe(Dongning), Yanji(Changbai) Key Pilot Dev-Zone,
Dev-ZonesAbroad
Almaty IT Tech Zone ， Free Economic Zone in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, Special Zones in Uzbekistan, Pengsheng Industrial Park
China-Indochina
Kunming and Nanning
to
Singapore
via
Laos, Vietnam
Cambodia, Thailand
Malaysia
Chinese Cities
Kunming, Nanning, Guiyang, Chongqing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shenzhen
Resources Abroad
Oil and Gas in Malay basin, Thailand, Non-Ferrous Metal in Northern Vietnam Fault Block and Alumina Belt in Cambodia
Dev-Zones in China
Key Dev-and-Opening Zones in Dongxing/Piangxiang of Guangxi and Mengla of Yunnan, Sino-Singapore Guangzhou Knowledge City, China-Malaysia Qinzhou Industrial Park
Dev-ZonesAbroad
Dev-Zone in Laos, Sino-Malaysia Kuantan Industrial Park, Indonesia-China Industrial Park, Jurong Industrial Park
China-Pakistan
Kashgar
To
Gwadar Port
Through
Khunjerab Pass
and
Islamabad
Chinese Cities
Xining, Yinchuan, Urumqi, Kashgar
Dev-Zones in Pakistan
Export Processing Zones in:Karachi （ Sindh ）， RisalpurSialkot （ Punjab ） Gujranwala （ Punjab ）Special Economic Zone in:Khairpur （ Sindh ）
Maritime Silk Road
Linking
Meeting
Meshing
Fusing
Completing
Supporting
Route I Ports on China Coast(Fujian) to South China Sea, Malacca, Indian Ocean, to Europe
Route II Ports on China Coast to South China Sea, Indonesia, and South Pacific
Route III Arctic Ocean in Long Run
Strategic Stations
Sihanoukville JakartaBitung SingaporeKyaukpyu GwadarKuantan ChittagongSalalah SonadiaHambantotaColomboAdenSaid
Why China?
Ancient Silk Road
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Extending to South Pacific
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CHINA STRENGTH IN OBOR
I. China Model 2. Four Trillion USD foreign reverse
3. Tech 4. Culture
THE MONEY, WHERE FROM?
Loans from World Bank, Asian Development Bank and alike
Silk Road Fund.Ltd ， 40 billion USD and Growing since 2014
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank A Public-Private Partnership like European Investment Bank
What Risks?
Economic Political Security Legal Moral
Economic Short Term: Conflicting Monetary Policies
across the World Long Term: Shifting Global Economic
Structure Now: Investment, Financing, Taxtation Sovereign Debt, Local Debt, Weak
Services, Lack of Awareness Will it degenerate into a simple spending
spree by China, as some kind of global Ministry o Finance
Political
Internal Geopolitical What will current Global System
become? Reactions?
Security
US and NATO confronting a reviving Russia
Syria, Iran, Rise of ISIS and general terrorism, and possible manipulation of terrorism by states
Maritime Disputes Color Revolutions
Legal
Future of WTO facing new arrangements
Insufficient Legal Frame along OBOR Obstacles in Existing Legal Systems:
Laws too open for interpreation Projects and Protest
Moral
State Level: Unfamiliar China---How Much do People Know but Pandas?
Business Level: Bad Behavior---modernization in a world of Postmodern ethics
Interpersonal: There are still bad people around
By inclusiveness: Mesh with Existing Cooperation Against No One By Involvement: of Local Stakeholders and People By Sharing: Localization of Whole Industrial
Chain and Services, bringing benefits where we are
Have Risks, Will Prevent
Common Interest: in Politics, Economy, Culture through
working together Common Responsibility: from shared concerns and combined efforts
for OBOR governance Common Destiny: Overcome challenges together, over the
Risks is common Prosperity
A Shared Trinity
BTW, About those “China Something”…China Model?China Experience?China Dream?
China Model：What Is It? Why Share?
Infrastracture+EducationHelps the 900 million people without
electrical power reach UN Millennium Development Goals and Move On
The Master said, "Now the man of perfect virtue, wishing to be established himself, seeks also to establish others; wishing to be enlarged himself, he seeks also to enlarge others. To be able to judge of others by what is nigh in ourselves - this may be called the art of virtue."
China ExperienceGradual Reform and Opening Upintergration of Market in China and BeyondInterconnectivity
China DreamPeace, Peace, PeaceInclusiveness, Inclusiveness, InclusivenessProsperity. Prosperity, Prosperity
Like we in China said, important things should be said Thrice
IT`S JUST…WHY NOW?
TIME TO BRING MAXIMUM PROSPERITY FROM NOT ONLY CHINA,
BUT THE WORLD
FOR THE WORLD
GROWING IMPORTANCE OF SILK ROAD REGIONS IN GLOBAL ECONOMY
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT DEMAND IN COMING YEARSESTIMATED: 6.6 BILLION USD 2015 TO 2020 14.3 BILLION USD 2015 TO 2025
China`s trade with OBOR topped 1 trillion USD in 2013, after a decade of 19% average growth, and is still growing fast.
And the OBOR mission…
Seeking Way for Global Prosperity in Post-Crisis Era
As the new engine of global economic growth, China brings its advantages in productivity, technology, funding, experience, and development into package and offer.
The Belt and Road Initiative is the result of this and China’s new phase of all-around opening-up.
Global RebalanceTraditional globalization starts from the
sea. Coastal regions and maritime states develop first, while inland countries fall behind, forming a massive wealth gap.
From Partial globalization to Inclusive globalization
With Global Shipping Like This
And Nocturnal World This
We Need a New Model for Regional Cooperation for the 21st Century
Economic Belt is an innovation in regional cooperation.
A new Eurasian Land BridgeChina-Mongolia-Russia, China-Central
Asia-West Asia and China-Indochina Peninsula economic corridors work as growth nexus to bring good to surrounding areas.
Why Good for the World?
Case on Europe
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Europe's Second Chance to Shape the World
Now Europe could once again be the centre of this world with all Eurasian continent if she want. This geopolitical World Island could reshape Global Geopolitics and the entire Globalization with its own Integration.
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China's “One Belt One Road” offers eight great opportunities for Europe as follows:
Firstly, One Belt and One Road (OBOR) can connect with Juncker-Plan and stimulate European economic growth through mutual-connectivity and extending European single market to Eurasian Big Market.
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Secondly, it is an opportunity to build a greater Eurasian market and to revive European civilization;
Thirdly, it is an opportunity for Europe’s regional integration: "Eastern partnership" and "Mediterranean partnership“?
Fourthly, the opportunity to push forward EU-China comprehensive strategic partnership.
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Fifthly, it is an opportunity for EU-Russian reconciliation
Sixthly, it is an opportunity for the EU to access to Asia-Pacific Affairs.
Seventhly, it is an opportunity for the EU to enhance its global influence.
Eighthly, it is an opportunity to balance the development of the trans-Atlantic relationship.
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According to Bloomberg analysis, OBOR will bring 3 billion middle class in 2050.
In the coming decade, OBOR will create 2.5 trillion USD trade along the 65 countries including European countries under 16+1 framework.
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One Belt One Road Initiate Promotes 16+1 Cooperation
Chin-Europe “partnership of peace, partnership of growth, partnership of reform, and partnership of civilization”, maritime cooperation is the new grip.
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building a new Asia-Europe maritime-land combined transport passage, relying on Belgrade-Budapest Railway and Greece’s Piraeus Port.
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Case Study: five ways for the UK to join OBOR
First, strategies Synergy. The UK Northern England Revitalization Plan with the initiative.
Second, connectivity in five aspects. RMBThird, development of third-party markets.Fourth, international capacity cooperation.Fifth, joint development of the Maritime
Silk Road.
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Conclusion
E=MC²E: EuropeM: Mutual ConnectivityC²: China multiplies Eurasian Continent
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VISION AND ACTIONS ON JOINTLY BUILDING SILK ROAD ECONOMIC BELT AND 21ST-CENTURY MARITIME SILK ROAD
March 28, 2015 http://www.mfa.gov.cn/mfa_chn/zyxw_602
251/t1249574.shtml
For More:
敬请期待
王义桅：《世界是通的：一带一路的逻辑》，
商务印书馆， 2016年 1月版。
殖民先鋒：葡萄牙 無敵艦隊：西班牙 海洋霸權：荷蘭
日不落國：英國 歐陸強權：法國 鐵血帝國：德國
巨人伊凡：俄羅斯 太陽東昇：日本 世界警察：美國
China Provides!