project management csc 310 spring 2017 howard rosenthal...project management process groups and...

ProjectManagementCSC310

Spring2017HowardRosenthal

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No?ce�  Thiscourseisbasedonandincludesmaterialfromthetext:EffectiveProjectManagement-Traditional,Agile,Extreme7THEditionAuthors:RobertK.WysockiPublisher:WileyISBN:978-1-118-72916-8,Copyright2014

�  Thecourseincludesandinterspersessomematerials,mostoftendiagrams,providedbyMr.Wysocki’sPowerPointslides,atthewebsite:www.wiley.com/go/epm7e

�  ItalsoutilizesgeneralinformationandfiguresfromthePMBOK:AGuidetotheProjectManagementBodyofKnowledge(PMBOK5THEdition)Publisher:ProjectManagementInstituteISBN:978-1-935589-67-9,Copyright2013

�  Italsoutilizes:AUser’sManualtothePMBOK®Guide—FifthEdition,Snyder,Cynthia

JohnWileyandSons,2013ISBN:978_1_118_43107_8

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LessonGoals

� UnderstandthestepsinvolvedinbuildingascheduleandcreatingnewinformationfortheWBSandWBSDictionary

�  Learnhowtodefineactivitiesforaworkpackage�  Learnhowtosequenceactivities�  Learnmethodsforestimatingresources�  Learnsomeofthetoolsusedtoestimateactivitydurations

�  Learnhowtodevelopasimpleschedule� UnderstandhowtheoutputsfromthesevariousprocessesareusedtoprogressivelyelaboratetheWBSDictionary

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ProjectManagementProcessGroupsandKnowledgeAreas

4PMBOKTable3-1

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ProjectTimeManagementOverview

5PMBOKFigure6-1

143©2013 Project Management Institute. A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition

6 - PROJECT TIME MANAGEMENT

6

.1 Inputs .1 Project management plan .2 Project charter .3 Enterprise environmental factors .4 Organizational process assets

.2 Tools & Techniques .1 Expert judgment .2 Analytical techniques .3 Meetings

.3 Outputs .1 Schedule management plan

Project Time

Management Overview

6.1 Plan Schedule

Management

.1 Inputs .1 Schedule management plan .2 Scope baseline .3 Enterprise environmental factors .4 Organizational process assets

.2 Tools & Techniques .1 Decomposition .2 Rolling wave planning .3 Expert judgment

.3 Outputs .1 Activity list .2 Activity attributes .3 Milestone list

6.2 Define Activities

.1 Inputs .1 Schedule management plan .2 Activity list .3 Activity attributes .4 Milestone list .5 Project scope statement .6 Enterprise environmental factors .7 Organizational process assets

.2 Tools & Techniques .1 Precedence diagramming method (PDM) .2 Dependency determination .3 Leads and lags .3 Outputs .1 Project schedule network diagrams .2 Project documents updates

6.3 Sequence

Activities

.1 Inputs .1 Schedule management plan .2 Activity list .3 Activity attributes .4 Activity resource requirements .5 Resource calendars .6 Project scope statement .7 Risk register .8 Resource breakdown structure .9 Enterprise environmental factors .10 Organizational process assets

.2 Tools & Techniques .1 Expert judgment .2 Analogous estimating .3 Parametric estimating .4 Three-point estimating .5 Group decision-making techniques .6 Reserve analysis

.3 Outputs .1 Activity duration estimates .2 Project documents updates

6.5 Estimate Activity

Durations

.1 Inputs .1 Schedule management plan .2 Activity list .3 Activity attributes .4 Project schedule network diagrams .5 Activity resource requirements .6 Resource calendars .7 Activity duration estimates .8 Project scope statement .9 Risk register .10 Project staff assignments .11 Resource breakdown structure .12 Enterprise environmental factors .13 Organizational process assets

.2 Tools & Techniques .1 Schedule network analysis .2 Critical path method .3 Critical chain method .4 Resource optimization techniques .5 Modeling techniques .6 Leads and lags .7 Schedule compression .8 Scheduling tool

.3 Outputs .1 Schedule baseline .2 Project schedule .3 Schedule data .4 Project calendars .5 Project management plan updates .6 Project documents updates

6.6 Develop Schedule

.1 Inputs .1 Project management plan .2 Project schedule .3 Work performance data .4 Project calendars .5 Schedule data .6 Organizational process assets

.2 Tools & Techniques .1 Performance reviews .2 Project management software .3 Resource optimization techniques .4 Modeling techniques .5 Leads and lags .6 Schedule compression .7 Scheduling tool

.3 Outputs .1 Work performance information .2 Schedule forecasts .3 Change requests .4 Project management plan updates .5 Project documents updates .6 Organizational process assets updates

6.7 Control Schedule

.1 Inputs .1 Schedule management plan .2 Activity list .3 Activity attributes .4 Resource calendars .5 Risk register .6 Activity cost estimates .7 Enterprise environmental factors .8 Organizational process assets

.2 Tools & Techniques .1 Expert judgment .2 Alternative analysis .3 Published estimating data .4 Bottom-up estimating .5 Project management software

.3 Outputs .1 Activity resource requirements .2 Resource breakdown structure .3 Project documents updates

6.4 Estimate Activity

Resources

Figure 6-1. Project Time Management Overview

Licensed To: Howard Rosenthal PMI MemberID: 2552551This copy is a PMI Member benefit, not for distribution, sale, or reproduction.

SchedulingOverview

6PMBOKFigure6-2

144 ©2013 Project Management Institute. A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition


Examples of Project Schedule Presentations

Network Diagram

Bar ChartActivity List

ProjectSchedule

ScheduleModel

ProjectInformation

SchedulingMethod

SchedulingTool

Output

Generates

Project Specific Data(e.g., WBS, activities,resources, durations,

dependencies, constraints,calendars, milestones

lags, etc.)

For example,CPM

Figure 6-2. Scheduling Overview


KeyOutputsofTimeManagementProcessesProcess KeyOutputs

DefineActivities ActivityList

SequenceActivities ProjectScheduleNetworkDiagrams

EstimateActivityResources ActivityresourcerequirementsResourcebreakdownstructure

EstimateActivityDurations Activitydurationestimates

DevelopSchedule ProjectscheduleProjectbaseline

ControlSchedule WorkperformancemeasuresChangerequested

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•  TimeManagementfocusesonhowandwhentheworkistobeaccomplished•  Itisdifferentfromscopingwhichfocusedonwhatwastobeaccomplished

Es?mateAc?vityDura?ons

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Es?mateAc?vityDura?ons6.5EstimateActivityDurations� EstimateActivityDurationsistheprocessofestimatingthenumberofworkperiodsneededtocompleteindividualactivitieswithestimatedresources.�  Estimatingactivitydurationsisconcernedwithdeterminingtheactualworkhoursneededtocompletethework(effort)andthenumberofworkdaysitwilltakefromstarttofinish(duration).

� Thekeybenefitofthisprocessisthatitprovidestheamountoftimeeachactivitywilltaketocomplete,whichisamajorinputintotheDevelopScheduleprocess.

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RefiningEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons�  Forprojectsthathavestablerequirements,commontechnologyandateamthathasexperience,youwillprobablybeabletogetgoodestimatesearlyintheprocess,�  Theywillmostlikelyberelativelyaccurateandwon’tneedalotofrefinement

� Conversely,projectsthatareusingnewtechnologyandhaveevolvingscopeandrequirementswillneedmanyiterationsofestimating�  Estimatesforthistypeofprojectwillhaveawiderangeandtheyarelikelytochangeoverthelifeoftheproject

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Inputs,ToolsandOutputsForEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons

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PMBOKFigure6-14



Inputs Tools & Techniques Outputs

.1 Schedule management plan .2 Activity list .3 Activity attributes .4 Activity resource requirements .5 Resource calendars .6 Project scope statement .7 Risk register .8 Resource breakdown structure .9 Enterprise environmental factors.10 Organizational process assets

.1 Expert judgment

.2 Analogous estimating

.3 Parametric estimating

.4 Three-point estimating

.5 Group decision-making techniques.6 Reserve analysis

.1 Activity duration estimates.2 Project documents updates

Figure 6-14. Estimate Activity Durations: Inputs, Tools & Techniques, and Outputs

Project Time Management

6.5EstimateActivity

Durations

6.1Plan ScheduleManagement

6.2Define

Activities

6.4Estimate Activity

Resources

6.6DevelopSchedule

A

A

P

Activity

ProjectDocuments

O

12.2Conduct

Procurement

9.2Acquire

Project Team

11.2IdentifyRisks

5.3DefineScope

Enterprise/Organization

11.2IdentifyRisks

Figure 6-15. Estimate Activity Durations Data Flow Diagram


FlowDiagramForEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons

12PMBOKFigure6-15




.1 Schedule management plan .2 Activity list .3 Activity attributes .4 Activity resource requirements .5 Resource calendars .6 Project scope statement .7 Risk register .8 Resource breakdown structure .9 Enterprise environmental factors.10 Organizational process assets

.1 Expert judgment

.2 Analogous estimating

.3 Parametric estimating

.4 Three-point estimating

.5 Group decision-making techniques.6 Reserve analysis

.1 Activity duration estimates.2 Project documents updates

Figure 6-14. Estimate Activity Durations: Inputs, Tools & Techniques, and Outputs


6.5EstimateActivity

Durations


6.2Define

Activities


Resources

6.6DevelopSchedule

A

A

P

Activity

ProjectDocuments

O

12.2Conduct

Procurement

9.2Acquire

Project Team

11.2IdentifyRisks

5.3DefineScope


11.2IdentifyRisks

Figure 6-15. Estimate Activity Durations Data Flow Diagram


AFewNotesOnInputsForEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons�  SomeoftheInputsderivefrompreviouslydescribedactivities

�  ScheduleManagementPlan,ActivityListandAttributes,ActivityResourceRequirements,RBS,ResourceCalendar,EnvironmentalFactors,OrganizationalAssets,etc.

�  ProjectScopeStatement�  Theassumptionsandconstraintsfromtheprojectscopestatement

areconsideredwhenestimatingtheactivitydurations.�  Examplesofassumptionsinclude:

�  Existingconditions,�  Availabilityofinformation�  Lengthofthereportingperiods

�  Examplesofconstraintsinclude:�  Availableskilledresources�  Contracttermsandrequirements.

�  RiskRegister�  Providesthelistofrisks,alongwiththeresultsofriskanalysisand

riskresponseplanningthatmayimpactactivityduration13

ProjectManagerRoleInEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons�  TherolesofthePMinestimatinginclude:

�  Providetheteamwithenoughinformationtoproperlyestimateeachactivity�  Activitymustbeatalowenoughlevel

�  Lettheestimatorsknowhowrefinedtheestimatesmustbe

�  Completeasanitycheckoftheestimates�  Preventpadding

�  Paddingisjusttakingyourbestguessanddoublingit�  Thisisdifferentfromcreatingamanagementreserveforrisk

�  Formulateareserve� Makesurethatallassumptionsmadeduringestimation,aswellastheestimatesthemselves,arefullydocumented

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ToolsForEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons–ExpertJudgment� Expertjudgment,guidedbyhistoricalinformation,canprovidedurationestimateinformationorrecommendedmaximumactivitydurationsfrompriorsimilarprojects

� Expertjudgmentcanalsobeusedtodeterminewhethertocombinemethodsofestimatingandhowtoreconciledifferencesbetweenthem

� Whenperformingearlyestimatesforlargerprojects,thewholeteamwon’talwaysbeavailable�  Projectleadersshouldhavetheexperiencetocontributetotheestimatingprocess

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ToolsForEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons–AnalogousEs?ma?ng(1)� Analogousestimatingisatechniqueforestimatingthedurationorcostofanactivityoraprojectusinghistoricaldatafromasimilaractivityorproject�  Analogousestimatingusesparametersfromaprevious,similarproject,suchasduration,budget,size,weight,andcomplexity,asthebasisforestimatingthesameparameterormeasureforafutureproject

� Whenestimatingdurations,thistechniquereliesontheactualdurationofprevious,similarprojectsasthebasisforestimatingthedurationofthecurrentproject

�  Itisagrossvalueestimatingapproach,sometimesadjustedforknowndifferencesinprojectcomplexity

�  Analogousdurationestimatingisfrequentlyusedtoestimateprojectdurationwhenthereisalimitedamountofdetailedinformationabouttheproject

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ToolsForEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons–AnalogousEs?ma?ng(2)�  Analogousestimatingisgenerallylesscostlyandlesstimeconsumingthanothertechniques,butitisalsolessaccurate�  Analogousdurationestimatescanbeappliedtoatotalprojectortosegmentsofaprojectandmaybeusedinconjunctionwithotherestimatingmethods.

�  Analogousestimatingismostreliablewhenthepreviousactivitiesaresimilarinfactandnotjustinappearance,andtheprojectteammemberspreparingtheestimateshavetheneededexpertise

�  Examplesmayinclude:�  Basinghowlongitwilltaketopavearoad,layapipe,etc.basedonsimilarprojects

�  Estimatingthecostofinstallingnewsoftwarebasedonasimilarpreviousactivity

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ToolsForEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons–ParametricEs?ma?ng(1)�  Parametricestimatingisanestimatingtechniqueinwhichan

algorithmisusedtocalculatecostordurationbasedonhistoricaldataandprojectparameters�  Parametricestimatingusesastatisticalrelationshipbetweenhistorical

dataandothervariables(e.g.,squarefootageinconstruction)tocalculateanestimateforactivityparameters,suchascost,budget,andduration.

�  Activitydurationscanbequantitativelydeterminedbymultiplyingthequantityofworktobeperformedbylaborhoursperunitofwork.�  Forexample,activitydurationonadesignprojectisestimatedbythe

numberofdrawingsmultipliedbythenumberoflaborhoursperdrawing,oronacableinstallation,themetersofcablemultipliedbythenumberoflaborhourspermeter.�  Iftheassignedresourceiscapableofinstalling25metersofcableperhour,the

durationrequiredtoinstall1,000metersis40hours.(1,000metersdividedby25metersperhour).

�  Thistechniquecanproducehigherlevelsofaccuracydependinguponthesophisticationandunderlyingdatabuiltintothemodel.

�  Parametrictimeestimatescanbeappliedtoatotalprojectortosegmentsofaproject,inconjunctionwithotherestimatingmethods.

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ToolsForEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons–ParametricEs?ma?ng(2)� Therearetwowaysthatanestimatormightcreateparametricestimates:�  RegressionAnalysis(scatterdiagrams)

�  Thisdiagramtrackstwovariablestoseeiftheyarerelatedandcreateamathematicalformulatouseinfutureestimates

�  distance=speed*time(directrelationship)�  density=mass/volume(inverserelationship)

�  Learningcurve�  The100THpaintedroomwilltakelesstimethanthefirst(inversehyperbolicrelationship)

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ToolsForEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons–One-PointEs?ma?ng�  Inone-pointanalysistheestimatorsubmitsoneestimateperactivity�  Estimatemaybebasedonhistoricaldata,expertjudgmentora

bestguess�  One-pointanalysisisrarelyused,andmostbigcompanieshavepoliciesagainstit�  Peopleusuallypadtheirestimates�  Ithidesimportantinformationaboutriskanduncertaintyfromthe

projectmanager�  Itoftenresultsinaschedulethatnoonebelievesin�  Ifactualestimateisofftheestimator’sreputationmaybesullied�  Estimatorsoftenworkagainsttheprojectmanagertotrytoprotect

themselves�  Thistypeofestimationshouldnotbeusedonprojectsrequiringanythingbeyondatoplevelschedule�  Ifitisbeingused,thePMmustprovidetheestimatorwithasmuch

dataaspossible,includingalltheinputstothisestimationactivity20

ToolsForEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons–Three-PointEs?ma?ng(1)� Theaccuracyofsingle-pointactivitydurationestimatesmaybeimprovedbyconsideringestimationuncertaintyandrisk�  Statisticallythereisaverysmallprobabilityofcompletingaprojectexactlyonschedule

� Thisconceptoriginatedwiththeprogramevaluationandreviewtechnique(PERT)

� Thereforeitismuchbettertoprovidethreepointestimates�  Estimatingwhatcangorightandwrongcanhelpestimatorsdetermineanexpectedrangeforeachactivity

�  AssiststhePMinunderstandingtheprojectedvolatilityofanactivity

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ToolsForEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons–Three-PointEs?ma?ng(2)�  PERTusesthreeestimatestodefineanapproximaterangeforanactivity’sduration:�  Mostlikely(M)-Thisestimateisbasedonthedurationofthe

activity,giventheresourceslikelytobeassigned,theirproductivity,realisticexpectationsofavailabilityfortheactivity,dependenciesonotherparticipants,andinterruptions.

�  Optimistic(O)-Theactivitydurationbasedonanalysisofthebest-casescenariofortheactivity

�  Pessimistic(P)-Theactivitydurationbasedonanalysisoftheworst-casescenariofortheactivity

�  Dependingontheassumeddistributionofvalueswithintherangeofthethreeestimatestheexpectedactivityduration,EAD,canbecalculatedusingaformula.ThemostcommonlyusedformulaisthebetadistributionfromthetraditionalPERTtechnique�  EAD=(O+4M+P)/6

�  Durationestimatesbasedonthreepointswithanassumeddistributionprovideanexpecteddurationandclarifytherangeofuncertaintyaroundtheexpectedduration

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ToolsForEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons–Three-PointEs?ma?ng(3)� Thestandarddeviationisanumericalvalueusedtoindicatehowwidelyestimatesvary�  Itisthemeasureofdispersionofasetofdatafromitsmean.Itmeasurestheabsolutevariabilityofadistribution

�  Thehigherthedispersionorvariability,thegreateristhestandarddeviationandgreaterwillbethemagnitudeofthedeviationofthevaluefromtheirmean.

�  StandardDeviationisalsoknownasroot-meansquaredeviationasitisthesquarerootofmeansofthesquareddeviationsfromthearithmeticmean.

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ToolsForEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons–Three-PointEs?ma?ng(4)�  Forourpurposesthestandarddeviationσisdefinedas:σ=(P-O)/6�  Therangeofanestimateisthereforerunsfrom(EAD–σ)to(EAD+σ)�  Wealsodefinevarianceasvar=σ2orvarianceisdefinedastheaverageofthesumofsquaresofthedifferencesfrommeanforasetofnumbersσ2 = Σ ( Xi – (Σ(Xi)/N) )2 / N Note: – (Σ(X)/N) is simply the average of the N numbers X1 … XN

�  Typicallystandarddeviationisfoundbytakingthesquarerootofthevariance

�  Thisisrequiredwhenyoubegintoanalyzeanentireprojectratherthanasingleactivity(seeexampletofollow

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ToolsForEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons–Three-PointEs?ma?ng(5)

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Activity P M O EAD STD Deviation

(σ)

Variance Range of The Estimate

A 47 27 14 28.167 5.500 30.250 22.667 to 33.667

B 89 60 41 61.667 8.000 64.000 53.667 to 69.667

C 48 44 39

D 42 37 29

Exercise:PleasefillthevaluesforactivitiesCandD

ToolsForEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons–Three-PointEs?ma?ng(6)

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Activity P M O EAD STD Deviation

(σ)

Variance Range of the Estimate

A 47 27 14 28.167 5.500 30.250 22.667 to 33.667

B 89 60 41 61.667 8.000 64.000 53.667 to 69.667

C 48 44 39 43.833 1.500 2.250 42.333 to 45.333

D 42 37 29 36.500 2.167 4.696 34.333 to 38.667

ToolsForEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons–Es?ma?ngTheProjectDura?on(1)

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Project Expected Project

Duration

Project STD

Deviation (σ)

Project Variance

Range of the Estimate

Project Duration Estimate

=sumofthedurations

=squarerootofthesumofthe

variances

=sumofthe

variances

=ExpectedDuration+/-the

StandardDeviation

Howlongshouldtheentireprojectwiththefouractivitiespreviouslydescribedtake?

ToolsForEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons–Es?ma?ngTheProjectDura?on(2)

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Project Expected Project

Duration

Project STD

Deviation (σ)

Project Variance

Range of the Estimate

Project Duration Estimate

170.167 10.060 101.196 160.107to180.227

Howlongshouldtheentireprojectwiththefouractivitiespreviouslydescribedtake?

ToolsForEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons–ReserveAnalysis(1)�  Durationestimatesmayincludecontingencyreserves,sometimesreferredtoastimereservesorbuffers,intotheprojectscheduletoaccountforscheduleuncertainty�  Contingencyreservesaretheestimateddurationwithintheschedulebaseline,whichisallocatedforidentifiedrisksthatareacceptedandforwhichcontingentormitigationresponsesaredeveloped

�  Contingencyreservesareassociatedwiththe“known-unknowns,”whichmaybeestimatedtoaccountforthisunknownamountofrework

�  Thecontingencyreservemaybeapercentageoftheestimatedactivityduration,afixednumberofworkperiods,ormaybedevelopedbyusingquantitativeanalysismethodssuchasMonteCarlosimulation

�  Contingencyreservesmaybeseparatedfromtheindividualactivitiesandaggregatedintobuffers

�  Contingencyreservesarenotpadding 29

ToolsForEs?mateAc?vityDura?ons–ReserveAnalysis(2)�  Asmorepreciseinformationabouttheprojectbecomesavailable,thecontingencyreservemaybeused,reduced,oreliminated.�  Contingencyshouldbeclearlyidentifiedinscheduledocumentation.

�  Estimatesmayalsobeproducedfortheamountofmanagementreserveoftimefortheproject�  Managementreservesareaspecifiedamountoftheprojectdurationwithheldformanagementcontrolpurposesandarereservedforunforeseenworkthatiswithinscopeoftheproject

�  Managementreservesareintendedtoaddressthe“unknown-unknowns”thatcanaffectaproject

�  Managementreserveisnotincludedintheschedulebaseline,butitispartoftheoverallprojectdurationrequirements

�  Dependingoncontractterms,useofmanagementreservesmayrequireachangetotheschedulebaseline

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SpecialTopic–SoXwareEs?ma?onTechniques

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SoXwareEs?ma?ons-Introduc?on� Thegoalofsoftwareestimationistodeterminethedurationofasoftwareprojectsothatitcanbeproperlycosted

� Modelsexistthatareusedbyestimatorstoobtaintheprojecteddurationseachdeliverable,andtheprojectasawhole

� Themodelhelpsdefinelowerlevelactivities� Theseestimatesarethenfedintocostmodels�  ForthistoworkestimatorsmustbeabletosizethesoftwareusingeithersoftwareLinesofCodeorFunctionPointanalysis�  Theywillusethetechniquesofexpertexperience,analogousestimating,parametricestimating,three-pointestimatingetc.,todeveloptheseinputs

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SEERSEMEs?ma?ons(1)�  SEERforSoftware(SEER-SEM)isanalgorithmicprojectmanagementsoftwareapplicationdesignedspecificallytoestimate,planandmonitortheeffortandresourcesrequiredforanytypeofsoftwaredevelopmentand/ormaintenanceproject.�  SEER,whichcomesfromthenoun,referringtoonehavingtheabilitytoforeseethefuture

�  Itreliesonparametricalgorithms,knowledgebases,simulation-basedprobability,andhistoricalprecedentstoallowprojectmanagers,engineers,andcostanalyststoaccuratelyestimateaproject'scostschedule,riskandeffortbeforetheprojectisstarted.

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SEERSEMEs?ma?ons(2)�  SEERforSoftware(SEER-SEM)iscomposedofagroupofmodelsworkingtogethertoprovideestimatesofeffort,duration,staffing,anddefects.

�  Thesemodelscanbebrieflydescribedbythequestionstheyask,whichbecomesthedialsthataresettofinetunethemodel:�  Sizing-Howlargeisthesoftwareprojectbeingestimated(LinesofCode,FunctionPoints,UseCases,etc.)

�  Technology-Whatisthepossibleproductivityofthedevelopers(capabilities,tools,practices,etc.)?

�  EffortandScheduleCalculation-Whatamountofeffortandtimearerequiredtocompletetheproject?

�  ConstrainedEffort/ScheduleCalculation-Howdoestheexpectedprojectoutcomechangewhenscheduleandstaffingconstraintsareapplied?

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SEERSEMEs?ma?ons(3)�  ActivityandLaborAllocation– Howshouldactivitiesandlaborbeallocatedintotheestimate?

�  CostCalculation-Givenexpectedeffort,duration,andthelaborallocation,howmuchwilltheprojectcost?

� DefectCalculation-Givenproducttype,projectduration,andotherinformation,whatistheexpected,objectivequalityofthedeliveredsoftware?�  Rememberthatthereisacosttoquality

� MaintenanceEffortCalculation-Howmucheffortwillberequiredtoadequatelymaintainandupgradeafieldedsoftwaresystem?

�  Progress-Howistheprojectprogressingandwherewillitendup.Alsohowtoreplan?

�  Validity-Isthisdevelopmentachievablebasedonthetechnologyinvolved?

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SoXwareSizingTechniques(1)�  Softwaresizeisakeyinputtoanyestimatingmodelandacrossmostsoftwareparametricmodels�  Supportedsizingmetricsincludesourcelinesofcode(SLOC),

functionpoints,function-basedsizing(FBS)andarangeofothermeasures

�  Theyaretranslatedforinternaluseintoeffectivesize(Se).isaformofcommoncurrencywithinthemodelandenablesnew,reused,andevencommercialoff-the-shelfcodetobemixedforanintegratedanalysisofthesoftwaredevelopmentprocess.

�  ThegenericcalculationforSewhenestimatingsoftwarelinesofcode(SLOCs)is:

Se = NewCodeSize + ExistingCodeSize*(0.4*Redesign + 0.25 * Reimplementation + 0.35*Retest)

�  Asindicated,Seincreasesindirectproportiontotheamountofnewsoftwarebeingdeveloped

�  Seincreasesbyalesseramountaspreexistingcodeisreusedinaproject.Theextentofthisincreaseisgovernedbytheamountofrework(redesign,re-implementation,andretest)requiredtoreusethecode.

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SoXwareSizingTechniques(2)�  WhileSLOCisanacceptedwayofmeasuringtheabsolutesizeofcodefromthe

developer'sperspective,metricssuchasfunctionpointscapturesoftwaresizefunctionallyfromtheuser'sperspective.

�  Thefunction-basedsizing(FBS)metricextendsfunctionpointssothathiddenpartsofsoftwaresuchascomplexalgorithmscanbesizedmorereadily.�  FBSistranslateddirectlyintounadjustedfunctionpoints(UFP),thatis,existingcodeis

notnecessarilytakenintoaccount.�  InSEER-SEM,allsizemetricsaretranslatedtoSe,includingthoseenteredusing

FBS�  Thisisnotasimpleconversion,i.e.,notalanguage-drivenadjustment�  Rather,themodelincorporatesfactors,includingphaseatestimate,operating

environment,applicationtype,andapplicationcomplexity�  AlltheseconsiderationssignificantlyaffectthemappingbetweenfunctionalsizeandSe

�  AfterFBSistranslatedintofunctionpoints,itisthenconvertedintoSe Se = Lx * (AdjFactor * UFP) (Entropy/1.2) Lxisalanguage-dependentexpansionfactorAdjFactoristheoutcomeinvolvingthefactorsmentionedaboveEntropyrangesfrom1.04to1.2dependingonthetypeofsoftwarebeingdeveloped(embedded,critical,business,etc.)

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MeasuringEffortandDura?on(1)�  Aproject'seffortanddurationareinterrelated,asisreflectedintheircalculation

withinthemodel.�  Effort(K)drivesduration,notwithstandingproductivity-relatedfeedbackbetween

durationconstraintsandeffort.Thebasiceffortequationis:

K = D0.4 * (Se/Cte)E

�  Se-Alreadydefinedforthedifferentmodels�  Cteiseffectivetechnology-acompositemetricthatcapturesfactorsrelatingtothe

efficiencyorproductivitywithwhichdevelopmentcanbecarriedout.�  Anextensivesetofpeople,process,andproductparametersfeedintotheeffective

technologyrating�  Ahigherratingmeansthatdevelopmentwillbemoreproductive

�  Disstaffingcomplexity-aratingoftheproject'sinherentdifficultyintermsoftherateatwhichstaffareaddedtoaproject.

�  Eistheentropy�  Originallyentropywasfixedat1.2�  Nextitevolvedto1.04to1.2dependingonprojectattributeswithsmallerIToriented

projectstendingtowardthelower�  Currentlyentropyisobservedas1.0to1.2dependingonprojectattribute�  SEERwillallowanentropylessthan1.0ifsuchacircumstanceisobservedaswell

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MeasuringEffortandDura?on(2)�  Onceeffortisobtained,durationissolvedusingthefollowingequation:

td = = D-0.2 * (Se/Cte)0.4 �  Thedurationequationisderivedfromkeyformulaicrelationships�  Itsexponentindicatesthatasaproject'ssizeincreases,durationalsoincreases,though

lessthanproportionally�  Thissize-durationrelationshipisalsousedincomponent-levelschedulingalgorithms

withtaskoverlapscomputedtofallwithintotalestimatedprojectduration.

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DevelopSchedule

40

DevelopSchedule6.6DevelopSchedule� DevelopScheduleistheprocessofanalyzingactivitysequences,durations,resourcerequirements,andscheduleconstraintstocreatetheprojectschedulemodel�  Thekeybenefitofthisprocessisthatbyenteringscheduleactivities,durations,resources,resourceavailabilities,andlogicalrelationshipsintotheschedulingtool,itgeneratesaschedulemodelwithplanneddatesforcompletingprojectactivities

� Remember,thescheduleisapartoftheProjectPlan,itisnottheProjectPlan

41

Inputs,ToolsandOutputsForDevelopSchedule

42

PMBOKFigure6-16



6


.1 Schedule management plan .2 Activity list .3 Activity attributes .4 Project schedule network diagrams .5 Activity resource requirements .6 Resource calendars .7 Activity duration estimates .8 Project scope statement .9 Risk register .10 Project staff assignments.11 Resource breakdown structure.12 Enterprise environmental factors.13 Organizational process assets

.1 Schedule network analysis.2 Critical path method.3 Critical chain method.4 Resource optimization techniques.5 Modeling techniques.6 Leads and lags.7 Schedule compression.8 Scheduling tool

.1 Schedule baseline

.2 Project schedule

.3 Schedule data

.4 Project calendars

.5 Project management plan updates.6 Project documents updates

Figure 6-16 Develop Schedule: Inputs, Tools & Techniques, and Outputs


6.6DevelopSchedule

6.7Control

Schedule

A

A

A

P

P

Project

Projectt

ProjectDocuments

r

P

12.2Conduct

Procurements

9.2Acquire

Project Team

11.2IdentifyRisks

5.3DefineScope


7.3Determine

Budget

7.2Estimate

Costs

4.2Develop ProjectManagement

Plan

12.1Plan Procurement

Management


Durations


Resources

6.3SequenceActivities

6.2Define

Activities

e


Figure 6-17. Develop Schedule Data Flow Diagram


FlowDiagramForDevelopSchedule

43PMBOKFigure6-17



6


.1 Schedule management plan .2 Activity list .3 Activity attributes .4 Project schedule network diagrams .5 Activity resource requirements .6 Resource calendars .7 Activity duration estimates .8 Project scope statement .9 Risk register .10 Project staff assignments.11 Resource breakdown structure.12 Enterprise environmental factors.13 Organizational process assets

.1 Schedule network analysis.2 Critical path method.3 Critical chain method.4 Resource optimization techniques.5 Modeling techniques.6 Leads and lags.7 Schedule compression.8 Scheduling tool

.1 Schedule baseline

.2 Project schedule

.3 Schedule data

.4 Project calendars

.5 Project management plan updates.6 Project documents updates

Figure 6-16 Develop Schedule: Inputs, Tools & Techniques, and Outputs


6.6DevelopSchedule

6.7Control

Schedule

A

A

A

P

P

Project

Projectt

ProjectDocuments

r

P

12.2Conduct

Procurements

9.2Acquire

Project Team

11.2IdentifyRisks

5.3DefineScope


7.3Determine

Budget

7.2Estimate

Costs

4.2Develop ProjectManagement

Plan

12.1Plan Procurement

Management


Durations


Resources

6.3SequenceActivities

6.2Define

Activities

e


Figure 6-17. Develop Schedule Data Flow Diagram


RefiningProjectSchedules�  Thescheduleisonlyasgoodastheinputsgeneratedforit�  Theschedulemayberefinedasapartofrollingwaveplanningandprogressiveelaboration-itisoftenaniterativeprocess.�  Theschedulemodelisusedtodeterminetheplannedstartand

finishdatesforprojectactivitiesandmilestonesbasedontheaccuracyoftheinputs

�  Scheduledevelopmentcanrequirethereviewandrevisionofdurationestimatesandresourceestimatestocreatetheprojectschedulemodeltoestablishanapprovedprojectschedulethatcanserveasabaselinetotrackprogress

�  Oncetheactivitystartandfinishdateshavebeendetermined,itiscommontohaveprojectstaffassignedtotheactivitiesreviewtheirassignedactivitiesandconfirmthatthestartandfinishdatespresentnoconflictwithresourcecalendarsorassignedactivitiesinotherprojectsortasksandthusarestillvalid

�  Asworkprogresses,revisingandmaintainingtheprojectschedulemodeltosustainarealisticschedulecontinuesthroughoutthedurationoftheproject

�  OnceascheduleisbaselineditcanonlybeupdatedthroughaformalChangeManagementprocess

44

Star?ngDevelopmentOfAProjectSchedule� Todevelopaprojectscheduleyouneedthefollowinginformation:�  Anunderstandingoftheworkrequiredtodeveloptheprojectincludingassumptions,milestonesandconstraints

�  Theactivitylist�  Thenetworkdiagram�  Anestimateofthedurationofeachactivity�  Anestimateofrequiredresourcesforeachactivity�  Anunderstandingoftheavailabilityofresources–theresourcecalendar

�  Acompanycalendar

45

HowDoYouDevelopAProjectSchedule�  Todevelopaprojectschedulethatisboughtinto,approvedrealisticandformalyouneedtodothefollowing�  Workwithstakeholderpriorities�  Lookforalternativewaystocompletethework�  Understandimpactsonotherprojects�  Negotiateforresources�  Applyleadsandlagstotheschedulewhereappropriate�  Compresstheschedulebycrashing,fast-trackingandreestimating

wherenecessary�  AdjusttheProjectManagementPlanwherenecessary–i.e.adjust

theWBSbecauseofplannedriskresponses�  Inputdataintoaschedulingtoolandperformcalculationsto

optimizetheschedule�  SimulatetheprojectusingMonteCarloanalysistodeterminethe

likelihoodofcompletingtheprocessontime�  Levelresourceswherenecessary�  Utilizepeer/teamreviews�  Obtainstakeholderbuy-inandmanagementapproval

46

ToolsForProjectManagement–ScheduleNetworkAnalysis�  Schedulenetworkanalysisisatechniquethatgeneratestheprojectschedulemodel�  Itemploysvariousanalyticaltechniques,suchascriticalpathmethod,criticalchainmethod,what-ifanalysis,andresourceoptimizationtechniquestocalculatetheearlyandlatestartandfinishdatesfortheuncompletedportionsofprojectactivities.

�  Somenetworkpathsmayhavepointsofpathconvergenceorpathdivergencethatcanbeidentifiedandusedinschedulecompressionanalysisorotheranalyses

47

ToolsForProjectManagement–Cri?calPathMethod-Overview�  ACriticalPathisacombinationofactivitiesthat,ifanyaredelayed,willdelaytheproject’sfinish

�  TheCriticalPathMethod(CPM)isananalysistechniquewiththreemainpurposes�  Calculatetheproject’sfinishdate�  Identifyhowmuchindividualactivitiesintheschedulecanslip

withoutchangingtheprojectfinishdate�  Identifytheactivitieswiththehighestriskthatcannotslipwithout

changingtheprojectfinishdate�  TheCPMentailsdeterminingtherangeoftimeswithinwhichtheactivitiescanoccur�  Thisisdonebydeterminingtheearlystartandfinishdatesfor

eachactivityandthelatestartandfinishdatesforeachactivity�  Theserepresenttherangeofdatesthateachactivitycanstart.

�  Nextsectiondescribesthedetailedtechniquesusedinthecriticalpathmethods,anddemonstratesthosetechniques

48

ToolsForProjectManagement–Cri?calChainMethod(1)�  Thecriticalchainmethod(CCM)isaschedulemethodthatallowstheprojectteamtoplacebuffersonanyprojectschedulepathtoaccountforlimitedresourcesandprojectuncertainties�  Itisdevelopedfromthecriticalpathmethodapproachandconsiderstheeffectsofresourceallocation,resourceoptimization,resourceleveling,andactivitydurationuncertaintyonthecriticalpathdeterminedusingthecriticalpathmethod.

�  Todoso,thecriticalchainmethodintroducestheconceptofbuffersandbuffermanagement�  Thecriticalchainmethodusesactivitieswithdurationsthatdonot

includesafetymargins,logicalrelationships,andresourceavailability

�  Insteadstatisticallydeterminedbufferscomposedoftheaggregatedsafetymarginsofactivitiesatspecifiedpointsontheprojectschedulepathtoaccountforlimitedresourcesandprojectuncertainties

�  Theresource-constrainedcriticalpathisknownasthecriticalchain

49

ToolsForProjectManagement–Cri?calChainMethod(2)�  Thecriticalchainmethodaddsdurationbuffersthatarenon-workscheduleactivitiestomanageuncertainty�  Onebuffer,placedattheendofthecriticalchain,asshowninthenextfigureisknownastheprojectbufferandprotectsthetargetfinishdatefromslippagealongthecriticalchain

�  Additionalbuffers,knownasfeedingbuffers,areplacedateachpointwhereachainofdependentactivitiesthatarenotonthecriticalchainfeedsintothecriticalchain

�  Feedingbuffersthusprotectthecriticalchainfromslippagealongthefeedingchains�  Thesizeofeachbuffershouldaccountfortheuncertaintyinthe

durationofthechainofdependentactivitiesleadinguptothatbuffer

�  Oncethebufferscheduleactivitiesaredetermined,theplannedactivitiesarescheduledtotheirlatestpossibleplannedstartandfinishdates

�  Consequently,insteadofmanagingthetotalfloatofnetworkpaths,thecriticalchainmethodfocusesonmanagingtheremainingbufferdurationsagainsttheremainingdurationsofchainsofactivities 50

FlowDiagramForTheCri?calChainMethod

51PMBOKFigure6-19



6.6.2.3 Critical Chain Method

The critical chain method (CCM) is a schedule method that allows the project team to place buffers on any project schedule path to account for limited resources and project uncertainties. It is developed from the critical path method approach and considers the effects of resource allocation, resource optimization, resource leveling, and activity duration uncertainty on the critical path determined using the critical path method. To do so, the critical chain method introduces the concept of buffers and buffer management. The critical chain method uses activities with durations that do not include safety margins, logical relationships, and resource availability with statistically determined buffers composed of the aggregated safety margins of activities at specified points on the project schedule path to account for limited resources and project uncertainties. The resource-constrained critical path is known as the critical chain.

The critical chain method adds duration buffers that are non-work schedule activities to manage uncertainty. One buffer, placed at the end of the critical chain, as shown in Figure 6-19, is known as the project buffer and protects the target finish date from slippage along the critical chain. Additional buffers, known as feeding buffers, are placed at each point where a chain of dependent activities that are not on the critical chain feeds into the critical chain. Feeding buffers thus protect the critical chain from slippage along the feeding chains. The size of each buffer should account for the uncertainty in the duration of the chain of dependent activities leading up to that buffer. Once the buffer schedule activities are determined, the planned activities are scheduled to their latest possible planned start and finish dates. Consequently, instead of managing the total float of network paths, the critical chain method focuses on managing the remaining buffer durations against the remaining durations of chains of activities.

Activity A

Critical Chain LinkNon-Critical Link

Activity CStart Finish

Activity G

Activity B

Activity D

FeedingBuffer

FeedingBuffer

Activity E Activity F ProjectBuffer

KEY

Figure 6-19. Example of Critical Chain Method


ToolsForProjectManagement–ResourceOp?miza?onTechniques(1)

�  Thereareseveralmethodsthatcanbeusedtooptimizetheuseofresources

�  ResourceLeveling�  Atechniqueinwhichstartandfinishdatesareadjustedbasedonresourceconstraintswiththegoalofbalancingdemandforresourceswiththeavailablesupply

�  Resourcelevelingcanbeusedwhensharedorcriticallyrequiredresourcesareonlyavailableatcertaintimes,orinlimitedquantities,orover-allocated,suchaswhenaresourcehasbeenassignedtotwoormoreactivitiesduringthesametimeperiod,asshowninthenextfigure,

�  Alsousedtokeepresourceusageataconstantlevel�  Resourcelevelingcanoftencausetheoriginalcriticalpathtochange,usuallytoincrease

52

ToolsForProjectManagement–ResourceOp?miza?onTechniques(2)

� ResourceSmoothing�  Atechniquethatadjuststheactivitiesofaschedulemodelsuchthattherequirementsforresourcesontheprojectdonotexceedcertainpredefinedresourcelimits

�  Inresourcesmoothing,asopposedtoresourceleveling,theproject’scriticalpathisnotchangedandthecompletiondatemaynotbedelayed

�  Inotherwords,activitiesmayonlybedelayedwithintheirfreeandtotalfloat

� Thusresourcesmoothingmaynotbeabletooptimizeallresources.

53

ToolsForProjectManagement–ResourceOp?miza?onTechniques(3)–Example1

54PMBOKFigure6-20



6

6.6.2.4 Resource Optimization Techniques

Examples of resource optimization techniques that can be used to adjust the schedule model due to demand and supply of resources include, but are not limited to:

Resource leveling. A technique in which start and finish dates are adjusted based on resource constraints with the goal of balancing demand for resources with the available supply. Resource leveling can be used when shared or critically required resources are only available at certain times, or in limited quantities, or over-allocated, such as when a resource has been assigned to two or more activities during the same time period, as shown in Figure 6-20, or to keep resource usage at a constant level. Resource leveling can often cause the original critical path to change, usually to increase.

Start

Activity A Tom: 8 hrsSue: 8 hrs

Activity B Sue: 8 hrs

Activity C Tom: 8 hrs

Tom: 8 hrsSue: 16 hrs

Tom: 8 hrs

Day 2 Day 3Day 1

Start

Activity A Tom: 8 hrsSue: 8 hrs

Activity B Sue: 8 hrs

Activity C Tom: 8 hrs

Tom: 8 hrsSue: 8 hrs

Sue: 8 hrs Tom: 8 hrs

Day 2 Day 3Day 1

Activities Before Resource Leveling

Activities After Resource Leveling

Figure 6-20. Resource Leveling



55

Snyder, Cynthia Stackpole. A User's Manual to the PMBOK Guide (2). Somerset, US: John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, 2013. ProQuest ebrary. Web. 1 May 2017.Copyright © 2013. John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

InitialResourceUtilization


56


ResourcesLeveledOverTime


57


WorkLeveledAcrossResources–Week1

ToolsForProjectManagement–ModelingTechniques(1)�  Thereareseveralmethodsthatcanbeusedtomodelaschedule

� What-IfScenarioAnalysis�  What-ifscenarioanalysisistheprocessofevaluatingscenariosinordertopredicttheireffect,positivelyornegatively,onprojectobjectives

�  Thisisananalysisofthequestion,“Whatifthesituationrepresentedbyscenario‘X’happens?”

�  Aschedulenetworkanalysisisperformedusingthescheduletocomputethedifferentscenarios,suchas:�  Delayingamajorcomponentdelivery�  Extendingspecificengineeringdurations�  Introducingexternalfactors,suchasastrikeorachangeinthe

permittingprocess�  Theoutcomeofthewhat-ifscenarioanalysiscanbeusedtoassessthefeasibilityoftheprojectscheduleunderadverseconditions,andinpreparingcontingencyandresponseplanstoovercomeormitigatetheimpactofunexpectedsituations

58

ToolsForProjectManagement–ModelingTechniques(2)

�  Simulation�  Simulationinvolvescalculatingmultipleprojectdurationswithdifferentsetsofactivityassumptions,usuallyusingprobabilitydistributionsconstructedfromthethree-pointestimatestoaccountforuncertainty

�  ThemostcommonsimulationtechniqueisMonteCarloanalysisinwhichadistributionofpossibleactivitydurationsisdefinedforeachactivityandusedtocalculateadistributionofpossibleoutcomesforthetotalproject.

59

ToolsForProjectManagement–ModelingTechniques(3)

60PMBOKFigure11-17


11 - PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT

Modeling and simulation. A project simulation uses a model that translates the specified detailed uncertainties of the project into their potential impact on project objectives. Simulations are typically performed using the Monte Carlo technique. In a simulation, the project model is computed many times (iterated), with the input values (e.g., cost estimates or activity durations) chosen at random for each iteration from the probability distributions of these variables. A histogram (e.g., total cost or completion date) is calculated from the iterations. For a cost risk analysis, a simulation uses cost estimates. For a schedule risk analysis, the schedule network diagram and duration estimates are used. The output from a cost risk simulation using the three-element model and risk ranges is shown in Figure 11-17. It illustrates the respective probability of achieving specific cost targets. Similar curves can be developed for other project objectives.

This cumulative distribution, assuming the data ranges in Figure 11-13 and triangular distributions, shows that the project is only 12 percent likely to meet the $41 million most likely cost estimate. If a conservative organization wants a 75% likelihood of success, a budget of $50 million (a contingency of nearly 22 % ($50M - $41M)/$41M)) is required.

Total Project CostCumulative Chart

Cost

100%

75%

50%

25%

0%

Prob

abili

ty

$30.00M $38.75M $47.50M $56.25M $65.00M

12%

Mean = $46.67M

$41M $50M

Figure 11-17. Cost Risk Simulation Results


ToolsForProjectManagement–LeadsandLags�  LeadsandLags

� Whenappliedduringschedulingthesearerefinementsappliedduringnetworkanalysistodevelopaviableschedulebyadjustingthestarttimeofthesuccessoractivities

�  Leadsareusedinlimitedcircumstancestoadvanceasuccessoractivitywithrespecttothepredecessoractivity

�  Lagsareusedinlimitedcircumstanceswhereprocessesrequireasetperiodoftimetoelapsebetweenthepredecessorsandsuccessorswithoutworkorresourceimpact

61

ToolsForProjectManagement–ScheduleCompression(1)�  Schedulecompressiontechniquesareusedtoshortenthescheduledurationwithoutreducingtheprojectscope,inordertomeetscheduleconstraints,imposeddates,orotherscheduleobjectives

�  Schedulecompressiontechniquesinclude,butarenotlimitedtocrashingandfasttracking

�  Crashing�  Atechniqueusedtoshortenthescheduledurationfortheleast

incrementalcostbyaddingresources�  Examplesofcrashinginclude

�  Approvingovertime�  Bringinginadditionalresources�  Payingtoexpeditedeliverytoactivitiesonthecriticalpath

�  Crashingworksonlyforactivitiesonthecriticalpathwhereadditionalresourceswillshortentheactivity’sduration

�  Crashingdoesnotalwaysproduceaviablealternativeandmayresultinincreasedriskand/orcost�  Ifonepersoncantaketendaystowriteaunititdoesn’tmeanthatten

peoplecandoitinoneday62

ToolsForProjectManagement–ScheduleCompression(2)

�  FastTracking�  Aschedulecompressiontechniqueinwhichactivitiesorphasesnormallydoneinsequenceareperformedinparallelforatleastaportionoftheirduration

�  Anexampleisconstructingthefoundationforabuildingbeforecompletingallofthearchitecturaldrawings

�  Fasttrackingmayresultinreworkandincreasedrisk�  Fasttrackingonlyworksifactivitiescanbeoverlappedtoshortentheprojectduration

63

ToolsForProjectManagement–ScheduleCompression(3)

64

CompleteDrywall

PaintExterior

InstallCarpet

CompleteDrywall

PaintExterior

InstallCarpet

15Days

15Days

8Days 8Days

9Days

10Days

OriginalDuration31Days

FastTrackedDuration31Days

ToolsForProjectManagement–SchedulingTools�  Automatedschedulingtoolscontaintheschedulemodelandexpeditetheschedulingprocessbygeneratingstartandfinishdatesbasedontheinputsof�  Activities�  Networkdiagrams�  Resourcesandactivitydurationsusingschedulenetworkanalysis

�  Aschedulingtoolcanbeusedinconjunctionwithotherprojectmanagementsoftwareapplicationsaswellasmanualmethods

�  Examplesofschedulingtoolsinclude�  MicrosoftProject�  FastTrackSchedule9�  PrimaveraP6–usedonlargeprojects�  Workfront�  GanttProject–freebutnotforbeginners�  Bittrix24–alsofree 65

OutputsForProjectManagement–ScheduleBaseline� Aschedulebaselineistheapprovedversionofaschedulemodelthatcanbechangedonlythroughformalchangecontrolproceduresandisusedasabasisforcomparisontoactualresults

�  Itisacceptedandapprovedbytheappropriatestakeholdersastheschedulebaselinewithbaselinestartdatesandbaselinefinishdates

� Duringmonitoringandcontrolling,theapprovedbaselinedatesarecomparedtotheactualstartandfinishdatestodeterminewhethervarianceshaveoccurred

� Theschedulebaselineisacomponentoftheprojectmanagementplan

66

OutputsForProjectManagement–ProjectSchedule(1)�  Theoutputsfromaschedulemodelareschedulepresentations�  Theprojectscheduleisanoutputofaschedulemodelthatpresentslinkedactivitieswithplanneddates,durations,milestones,andresources�  Ataminimum,theprojectscheduleincludesaplannedordefined

startdateandplannedfinishdateforeachactivity�  Ifresourceplanningisdoneatanearlystage,thentheprojectscheduleremainspreliminaryuntilresourceassignmentshavebeenconfirmedandscheduledstartandfinishdatesareestablished.�  Thisprocessusuallyoccursnolaterthanthecompletionofthe

ProjectManagementPlan�  Theprojectschedulepresentationmaybepresentedinsummary

form,sometimesreferredtoasthemasterscheduleormilestoneschedule,orpresentedindetail.

�  Althoughaprojectschedulemodelcanbepresentedintabularform,itismoreoftenpresentedgraphically,usingoneormoreofthefollowingformatsdescribedinthenextfewpages

67

OutputsForProjectManagement–ProjectSchedule(2)� GanttCharts,alsoknowasBarCharts

�  Ganttchartsrepresentscheduleinformationwhereactivitiesarelistedontheverticalaxis,datesareshownonthehorizontalaxis,andactivitydurationsareshownashorizontalbarsplacedaccordingtostartandfinishdates

�  Barchartsarerelativelyeasytoread,andarefrequentlyusedinmanagementpresentations

�  Forcontrolandmanagementcommunications,thebroader,morecomprehensivesummaryactivity,sometimesreferredtoasahammockactivity,isusedbetweenmilestonesoracrossmultipleinterdependentworkpackages,andisdisplayedinbarchartreports

68

OutputsForProjectManagement–ProjectSchedule(3)

69

SampleSummarySchedulePresentedInWBSFormat



6

Project Schedule Time Frame

Period 5Period 1 Period 2 Period 3Activity

Identifier

1.1.MB Begin New Product Z

Period 4Calendar

units

Calendarunits

Calendarunits

Complete Component 1


Finish New Product Z

0

0

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Activity Description



Identifier

1.1.MB 0

120

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Period 4Activity Description

1.1.1.M1

1.1.2.M1

1.1.3.MF

Complete Integration of Components 1 & 2 01.1.3.M1



Identifier

1.1 Develop and Deliver New Product Z

Period 4

Work Package 1: Component 1


Work Package 3: Integrated Components 1 and 2

120

67

53

53


1.1.1

1.1.2

1.1.3

Milestone Schedule

Data Date

Data DateDetailed Schedule

1.1.1.T

1.1

1.1.1

1.1.1.D

1.1.1.B

1.1.2.T

1.1.1.M1

1.1.2

1.1.2.D

1.1.2.B

1.1.3.M1

1.1.2.M1

1.1.3

1.1.3.G

1.1.3.T

Data Date

SS

FS

1.1.3.P

1.1.3.MF

Summary Schedule

Begin New Product Z

Develop and Deliver Product Z


Design Component 1

Build Component 1

Test Component 1



Design Component 2

Build Component 2

Test Component 2



Integrate Components 1 and 2 as Product Z

Complete Integration of Components 1 and 2

Test Integrated Components as Product Z

Deliver Product Z


Figure 6-21. Project Schedule Presentations —Examples


PMBOKFigure6-21

OutputsForProjectManagement–ProjectSchedule(4)� Milestonecharts

�  Thesechartsaresimilartobarcharts,butonlyidentifythescheduledstartorcompletionofmajordeliverablesandkeyexternalinterfaces.

70


71



6



Identifier


Period 4Calendar

units

Calendarunits

Calendarunits




0

0

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Identifier

1.1.MB 0

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1.1.1.M1

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Identifier


Period 4




120

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1.1.1

1.1.2

1.1.3

Milestone Schedule

Data Date


1.1.1.T

1.1

1.1.1

1.1.1.D

1.1.1.B

1.1.2.T

1.1.1.M1

1.1.2

1.1.2.D

1.1.2.B

1.1.3.M1

1.1.2.M1

1.1.3

1.1.3.G

1.1.3.T

Data Date

SS

FS

1.1.3.P

1.1.3.MF

Summary Schedule

Begin New Product Z



Design Component 1

Build Component 1

Test Component 1



Design Component 2

Build Component 2

Test Component 2






Deliver Product Z




SampleMilestoneChartPMBOKFigure6-21

OutputsForProjectManagement–ProjectSchedule(6)�  ProjectScheduleNetworkDiagrams

�  Thesediagramsarecommonlypresentedintheactivity-on-nodediagramformatshowingactivitiesandrelationshipswithoutatimescale,sometimesreferredtoasapurelogicdiagram,aswehavepreviouslydiscussed

�  Alsopresentedinatime-scaledschedulenetworkdiagramformatthatissometimescalledalogicbarchart,asshownforthedetailedscheduleinthenextfigure�  Thesediagrams,withactivitydateinformation,usuallyshowboth

theprojectnetworklogicandtheproject’scriticalpathscheduleactivities

�  Thisexamplealsoshowshoweachworkpackageisplannedasaseriesofrelatedactivities

�  Anotherpresentationoftheprojectschedulenetworkdiagramisatime-scaledlogicdiagram�  Thesediagramsincludeatimescaleandbarsthatrepresentthe

durationofactivitieswiththelogicalrelationships�  Itisoptimizedtoshowtherelationshipsbetweenactivitieswhere

anynumberofactivitiesmayappearonthesamelineofthediagraminsequence 72


73

SampleProjectScheduleNetworkChart



6



Identifier


Period 4Calendar

units

Calendarunits

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0

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Identifier

1.1.MB 0

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1.1.2.M1

1.1.3.MF




Identifier


Period 4




120

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1.1.1

1.1.2

1.1.3

Milestone Schedule

Data Date


1.1.1.T

1.1

1.1.1

1.1.1.D

1.1.1.B

1.1.2.T

1.1.1.M1

1.1.2

1.1.2.D

1.1.2.B

1.1.3.M1

1.1.2.M1

1.1.3

1.1.3.G

1.1.3.T

Data Date

SS

FS

1.1.3.P

1.1.3.MF

Summary Schedule

Begin New Product Z



Design Component 1

Build Component 1

Test Component 1



Design Component 2

Build Component 2

Test Component 2






Deliver Product Z




PMBOKFigure6-21

OutputsForProjectManagement–ScheduleData�  Thescheduledatafortheprojectschedulemodelisthecollectionofinformationfordescribingandcontrollingthescheduleincludingatleast�  Schedulemilestones�  Scheduleactivities�  Activityattributes�  Documentationofallidentifiedassumptionsandconstraints

�  Theamountofadditionaldatavariesbyapplicationarea.Informationfrequentlysuppliedassupportingdetailincludes,butisnotlimitedto:�  Resourcerequirementsbytimeperiod,oftenintheformofa

resourcehistogram�  Alternativeschedules,suchasbest-caseorworst-case,not

resource-leveled,orresource-leveled,withorwithoutimposeddates

�  Schedulingofcontingencyreserves�  Scheduledatacouldalsoincludesuchitemsasresourcehistograms,cash-flowprojections,andorderanddeliveryschedules

74

OutputsForProjectManagement–ProjectCalendarsandProjectUpdates� TheProjectCalendaridentifiesworkingdaysandshiftsthatareavailableforscheduledactivities�  Itdistinguishestimeperiodsindaysorpartsofdaysthatareavailabletocompletescheduledactivitiesfromtimeperiodsthatarenotavailable

�  Aschedulemodelmayrequiremorethanoneprojectcalendartoallowfordifferentworkperiodsforsomeactivitiestocalculatetheprojectschedule

� Updatesmayoccurtoanyofthefollowingasaresultofprojectscheduling�  ProjectManagementPlan�  ActivityResourceRequirements�  Activityattributes�  Calendars�  RiskRegister 75

DevelopScheduleADetailedLookAttheCri?calPathMethod

76

ToolsForProjectManagement–Cri?calPathMethod(1)�  Thecriticalpathmethod(CPM)isamethodusedtoestimatetheminimumprojectdurationanddeterminetheamountofschedulingflexibilityonthelogicalnetworkpathswithintheschedulemodel�  Thisschedulenetworkanalysistechniquecalculatestheearlystart,

earlyfinish,latestart,andlatefinishdatesforallactivitieswithoutregardforanyresourcelimitationsbyperformingaforwardandbackwardpassanalysisthroughtheschedulenetwork

�  Thecriticalpathisthesequenceofactivitiesthatrepresentsthelongestpaththroughaproject,whichdeterminestheshortestpossibleprojectduration

�  Theresultingearlyandlatestartandfinishdatesarenotnecessarilytheprojectschedule,rathertheyindicatethetimeperiodswithinwhichtheactivitycouldbeexecuted,usingtheparametersenteredintheschedulemodelforactivitydurations,logicalrelationships,leads,lags,andotherknownconstraints.

�  Thecriticalpathmethodisusedtocalculatetheamountofschedulingflexibilityonthelogicalnetworkpathswithintheschedulemodel

77

ToolsForProjectManagement–Cri?calPathMethod(2)

�  Onanynetworkpath,thescheduleflexibilityismeasuredbytheamountoftimethatascheduleactivitycanbedelayedorextendedfromitsearlystartdatewithoutdelayingtheprojectfinishdateorviolatingascheduleconstraint,andistermed“totalfloat.”

�  ACPMcriticalpathisnormallycharacterizedbyzerototalfloatonthecriticalpath.�  However,asimplementedwithPrecedenceDiagramModeling(PDM)

sequencing,criticalpathsmayhavepositive,zero,ornegativetotalfloatdependingonconstraintsapplied

�  Anyactivityonthecriticalpathiscalledacriticalpathactivity.�  Positivetotalfloatiscausedwhenthebackwardpassiscalculatedfroma

scheduleconstraintthatislaterthantheearlyfinishdatethathasbeencalculatedduringforwardpasscalculation.

�  Negativetotalfloatiscausedwhenaconstraintonthelatedatesisviolatedbydurationandlogic.

�  Schedulenetworksmayhavemultiplenear-criticalpaths.�  Adjustmentstoactivitydurations(ifmoreresourcesorlessscopecanbe

arranged),logicalrelationships(iftherelationshipswerediscretionarytobeginwith),leadsandlags,orotherscheduleconstraintsmaybenecessarytoproducenetworkpathswithazeroorpositivetotalfloat.

�  Oncethetotalfloatforanetworkpathhasbeencalculated,thenthefreefloat—theamountoftimethatascheduleactivitycanbedelayedwithoutdelayingtheearlystartdateofanysuccessororviolatingascheduleconstraint—canalsobedetermined.

78

ToolsForProjectManagement–Cri?calPathMethod–BasicDefini?ons(1)�  EarlyStartDate(ES)

�  IntheCPM,theearliestpossiblepointintimewhentheuncompletedportionsofascheduleactivitycanstartbasedontheschedulenetworklogicandanyscheduleconstraints

�  EarlyFinishdate(EF)�  IntheCPM,theearliestpossiblepointintimewhenthe

uncompletedportionsofascheduleactivity(ortheproject)canfinishbasedontheschedulenetworklogicandanyscheduleconstraints

�  LateStartDate(LS)�  IntheCPM,thelatestpossiblepointintimewhenthe

uncompletedportionsofascheduleactivitycanstartbasedupontheschedulenetworklogic,theprojectcompletiondate,andanyscheduleconstraints

�  LateFinishDate(LF)�  IntheCPM,thelatestpossiblepointintimewhenthe

uncompletedportionsofascheduleactivitycanfinishbasedontheschedulenetworklogic,theprojectcompletiondate,andanyscheduleconstraints

79

ToolsForProjectManagement–Cri?calPathMethod–BasicDefini?ons(2)� TotalFloat

�  Thetotalamountoftimethatascheduleactivitymaybedelayedorextendedfromitsearlystartdatewithoutdelayingtheprojectfinishdate,orviolatingascheduleconstraint(suchasamandatorymilestonedate)

�  Thisissimplythemathematicaldifferencebetweentheearlyandlatestart(orfinish)dates�  TotalFloat=LS-ESorTotalFloat=LF-EF

�  Anactivitywithfloathassomeschedulingflexibility�  Onceyouknowthecriticalandnearcriticalpathsyoucanusefloatasanassettoachieveabetterallocationofresources

�  However,keepinmindthatthefutureactivitiesmaybeaffectedbyshiftingthestartorfinishdatewithinthefloat

�  Youwillhavetounderstandtheimplicationstootheractivitiesthatsharethepathtoensureyouarenotcreatingresourceissues

80

ToolsForProjectManagement–Cri?calPathMethod–BasicDefini?ons(3)� Thoseactivitieswithnofloatareonthecriticalpath.

�  Thecriticalpathusuallyhaszerofloat,butitcanalsobeinterpretedasthatpathwiththeleastamountoffloat

�  Thatmeansthattherecanbenegativefloat�  Negativefloatoccurswhenanactivity’sstartdatacomesbeforetheprecedingactivity’sfinishdate–obviouslyaproblem

�  Thecementismixedbeforetheholetopouritinhasbeencompleted

�  Inthissituation,youmustfindawaytocompresstheschedule,ortheproject

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ToolsForProjectManagement–Cri?calPathMethod–BasicDefini?ons(4)�  FreeFloat

�  Theamountoftimethatascheduleactivitycanbedelayedwithoutdelayingtheearlystartdateofanysuccessororviolatingascheduleconstraint

�  Freefloatisthemathematicaldifferencebetweentheearlyfinishofapredecessortask,andtheearlystartofthesuccessortask�  Thishappenswhentherearemultiplepathsconvergingintoone

�  Thelastactivitybeforeconvergingonthepath(s)thatarenotcriticalhavefreefloat

�  Activitieswithfreefloathavethemostflexibilitybecauseiftheystartwithinthefreefloattime,thereshouldbenoscheduleimplicationsforanyotheractivitiesintheschedule

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TheCri?calPathMethod–Example1(1)

83

A

2

B

1

C

4

D

6

E

3

F

3

Start Finish

Path Activities Duration

Start-A-B-C-Finish 2+1+4 7

Start-D-C-Finish 6+4 10

Start-D-E-F-Finish 6+3+3 12 (Critical Path)

TheCri?calPathMethod–Example1(2)–ForwardPass

84

A

2

B

1

C

4

D

6

E

3

F

3

Start Finish

0 2 2 3 6 10

0 6 6 9 9 12

•  TocalculatetheES/EFyouusetheforwardpass•  BeginatStart=0andcalculatetheESbasedontheEFofthe

predecessor•  NotethefreefloatbetweenBandCis3

TheCri?calPathMethod–Example1(3)–BackwardPass

85

•  TocalculatetheLS/LFyouusethebackwardpass•  BeginatEnd=EFandcalculatetheLFbasedontheLSofthe

successor•  NodifferencebetweenES/LSandEF/LFpairsonthecritical

path•  Thereisnofloatfortasksonthecriticalpath

A

2

B

1

C

4

D

6

E

3

F

3

Start Finish

0 2 2 3 6 10

0 6 6 9 9 12

9 12

8 12

6 9 0 6

7 8 5 7

TheCri?calPathMethod–Example2(1)–NetworkWithDura?ons

86


TheCri?calPathMethod–Example2(2)–ForwardPass

87


TheCri?calPathMethod–Example2(3)–BackwardPass

88


TheCri?calPathMethod–Example2(4)–WithCalculatedFloat

89


•  Total Float = LS-ES or Total Float = LF-EF •  Free float is the mathematical difference between

the early finish of a predecessor task, and the early start of the successor task

TheCri?calPathMethod-AlternateFormat

90PMBOKFigure6-18



6

On any network path, the schedule flexibility is measured by the amount of time that a schedule activity can be delayed or extended from its early start date without delaying the project finish date or violating a schedule constraint, and is termed “total float.” A CPM critical path is normally characterized by zero total float on the critical path. As implemented with PDM sequencing, critical paths may have positive, zero, or negative total float depending on constraints applied. Any activity on the critical path is called a critical path activity. Positive total float is caused when the backward pass is calculated from a schedule constraint that is later than the early finish date that has been calculated during forward pass calculation. Negative total float is caused when a constraint on the late dates is violated by duration and logic. Schedule networks may have multiple near-critical paths. Many software packages allow the user to define the parameters used to determine the critical path(s). Adjustments to activity durations (if more resources or less scope can be arranged), logical relationships (if the relationships were discretionary to begin with), leads and lags, or other schedule constraints may be necessary to produce network paths with a zero or positive total float. Once the total float for a network path has been calculated, then the free float—the amount of time that a schedule activity can be delayed without delaying the early start date of any successor or violating a schedule constraint—can also be determined. For example the free float for Activity B, in Figure 6-18, is 5 days.

Critical Path LinkNon-Critical Path Link

ActivityNode

Start FinishA

1 5 5

1 0 5

C

6 10 15

6 0 15

B

6 5 10

11 5 15

D

16 15 30

16 0 30

Activity Name

EarlyStart Duration

EarlyFinish

LateStart

TotalFloat

LateFinish

Path A–B–D = 25

Path A–C–D = 30(Critical Path)

KEY

Figure 6-18. Example of Critical Path Method
