PMC N=4 PMC N=2 INDICE

AÑO 1

I trimestre 1500

II trimestre 45002800

III trimestre 4200 2862.5 1.467248912925

IV trimestre 1000 3000 0.333333333075

AÑO 2

I trimestre 2000 3212.5 0.622568093350

II trimestre 5100 3400 1.53450

III trimestre 5300 3587.5 1.477351923725

IV trimestre 1400 3900 0.358974364075

AÑO 1

I trimestre 3100 4256.25 0.728340684437.5

II trimestre 6500 4575 1.420765034712.5

III trimestre 6750 4850 1.391752584987.5

IV trimestre 2500 5200 0.480769235412.5

AÑO 1

I trimestre 4200 5612.5 0.748329625812.5

II trimestre 8200 5975 1.372384946137.5

III trimestre 8350 6275 1.330677296412.5

IV trimestre 3800 6781.25 0.560368667150

AÑO 1

I trimestre 5300 7643.75 0.693376948137.5

II trimestre 11150 8187.5 1.361832068237.5

III trimestre 12300

IV trimestre 4200

α= 0,3s T I PRONOSTICO

AÑO 0

0.698153831.413745511.41675767

β = 0.1 ϒ = 0,05

AÑO 0

1500 0 0.4333614

AÑO 1

I trimestre 1500 1694.55709 194.657086 0.70750549II trimestre 4500 2277.36012 758.094408 1.44185683III trimestre 4200 3014.1728 1419.19765 1.41559065IV trimestre 1000 3795.62218 2058.82726 0.4248664

AÑO 2

I trimestre 2000 4946.16456 3003.58692 0.69234791 1889.92168II trimestre 5100 6625.95774 4383.1214 1.408249 3036.89638III trimestre 5300 8829.56146 6148.51299 1.37482393 4434.78604IV trimestre 1400 11473.1982 8177.3984 0.40972425 5854.8743

AÑO 3

I trimestre 3100 15098.6729 10985.2333 0.66799631 7950.44382II trimestre 6500 19643.4327 14431.5697 1.35438152 11010.4874III trimestre 6750 25325.4175 18670.4976 1.31940927 14979.4493IV trimestre 2500 32627.64 24105.7703 0.39306915 19651.0063

AÑO 4

I trimestre 4200 41599.6252 30667.2785 0.63964462 26084.5742II trimestre 8200 52403.1598 38404.1852 1.2944864 34076.3567III trimestre 8350 65463.7184 47624.4254 1.25981638 43997.2346IV trimestre 3800 82061.9537 59460.3181 0.37573102 56733.8034

AÑO 5

I trimestre 5300 101551.346 73003.7782 0.61027191 72267.5433II trimestre 11150 124772.623 88924.7778 1.2342302 90808.6395III trimestre 12300 152517.179 107776.956 1.20085789 113089.404IV trimestre 4200 185559.357 130041.539 0.35807618 141522.648

174555.734213698.635260295.336315601.254

TRIMESTRE 1TRIMESTRE IITRIMESTRE 3TRIMESTRE IV1.46724891 0.33333333

0.62256809 1.5 1.47735192 0.358974360.72834068 1.42076503 1.39175258 0.480769230.74832962 1.37238494 1.33067729 0.560368660.69337694 1.361832060.69815383 1.41374551 1.41675767 0.4333614

suavizacion exponencial simpleα= 0,1 α= 0,7

año demanda pronostico pronostico2004 195000 195,000 195,0002005 248000 195,000 195,0002006 275000 200,300 232,1002007 168000 207,770 262,1302008 300000 203,793 196,2392009 120000 213,414 268,8722010 270000 204,072 164,6622011 330000 210,665 238,3982012 160000 222,599 302,5202013 210000 216,339 202,7562014 140000 215,705 207,8272015 208,134 160,348

suavizacion exponencial doble . Metodo de Brownα= 0,1

año demanda S S´ a b Pronostico2004 195000 195,000 195,0002005 248000 195,000 195,000 195,000 02006 275000 200,300 195,530 205,070 530 195,0002007 168000 207,770 196,754 218,786 1,224 205,6002008 300000 203,793 197,458 210,128 704 220,0102009 120000 213,414 199,053 227,774 1,596 210,8322010 270000 204,072 199,555 208,589 502 229,3702011 330000 210,665 200,666 220,664 1,111 209,0912012 160000 222,599 202,860 242,338 2,193 221,7752013 210000 216,339 204,207 228,470 1,348 244,5312014 140000 215,705 205,357 226,052 1,150 229,8182015 227,2022016

suavizacion exponencial doble . Metodo de Browbα= 0,7

año demanda S S´ a b Pronostico2004 195000 195,000 195,0002005 248000 195,000 195,000 195,000 02006 275000 232,100 220,970 243,230 25,970 195,0002007 168000 262,130 249,782 274,478 28,812 269,2002008 300000 196,239 212,302 180,176 -37,480 303,2902009 120000 268,872 251,901 285,843 39,599 142,696

2010 270000 164,662 190,833 138,490 -61,067 325,4422011 330000 238,398 224,129 252,668 33,296 77,4222012 160000 302,520 279,002 326,037 54,873 285,9642013 210000 202,756 225,630 179,882 -53,373 380,9102014 140000 207,827 213,168 202,486 -12,462 126,5092015 190,024

α= 0,1año demanda S T pronostico

2004 186,000 186,000 0.00002005 335,000 200,900 4,470.0000 186,0002006 215,000 206,333 4,758.9000 205,3702007 430,000 232,983 11,326.1430 211,0922008 285,000 248,378 12,546.8774 244,3092009 600,000 294,832 22,719.1321 260,9252010 300,000 315,796 22,192.5873 317,5512011 715,000 375,690 33,502.9194 337,9892012 500,000 418,274 36,227.1306 409,1932013 950,000 504,051 51,092.1069 454,5012014 610,000 560,629 52,737.8223 555,1432015 613,366

α= 0,3año demanda S T pronostico

2004 186,000 186,000 0.00002005 335,000 200,900 4,470.0000 186,0002006 215,000 206,333 4,758.9000 205,3702007 430,000 232,983 11,326.1430 211,0922008 285,000 248,378 12,546.8774 244,3092009 600,000 294,832 22,719.1321 260,9252010 300,000 315,796 22,192.5873 317,5512011 715,000 375,690 33,502.9194 337,9892012 500,000 418,274 36,227.1306 409,1932013 950,000 504,051 51,092.1069 454,5012014 610,000 560,629 52,737.8223 555,1432015 613,366

β = 0.3

β = 0.1