public finances and monetary policy first deputy governor svante Öberg saco 26 april 2010
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Public finances and
monetary policy
First Deputy Governor
Svante ÖbergSACO 26 April 2010
Public finances in the OECD countriesPercentage of GDP
Source: OECDNote. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
Expenditure
Revenue
General government net lending in the OECD countriesPercentage of GDP
Source: OECDNote. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
98 00 02 04 06 08 10
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Gross public debt in the OECD countriesPercentage of GDP
Source: OECDNote. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
98 00 02 04 06 08 10
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
General government net lending in the United States and the euro areaPercentage of GDP
Source: OECDNote. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10Euro area
USA
Average general government net lendingPercentage of GDP
Source: OECD
1998-2007OECD -2.0USA -2.0Euro area -1.9
Gross public debt in GreecePercentage of GDP
Source: OECDNote. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast
90
100
110
120
130
140
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
90
100
110
120
130
140
Difference between Greece’s and Germany’s government bond rates Percentage points
Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Gross public debt in Portugal, Ireland, Italy and SpainPercentage of GDP
Source: OECDNote. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Portugal
Ireland
Italy
Spain
General government net lending in Portugal, Ireland, Italy and SpainPercentage of GDP
Source: OECDNote. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Portugal
Ireland
Italy
Spain
Government bond rates of Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain, compared with those of GermanyPercentage points
Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
06 07 08 09 10 11
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0Portugal
Ireland
Italy
Spain
Unit labour costs compared to the euro areaPercentage points
Source: OECDNote. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
00 02 04 06 08 10
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35PortugalIrelandItalyGreeceSpainGermany
Current account deficitsPercentage of GDP
Source: IMFNote. Broken line represents IMF’s forecast
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Portugal
Ireland
Italy
Greece
Spain
General government net lending in the United KingdomPercentage of GDP
Source: OECDNote. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
General government net lending in SwedenPercentage of GDP
Source: OECDNote. Broken line represents OECD’s forecast
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 10
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Sweden’s central government debt and gross public debtPercentage of GDP
Sources: Swedish National Debt Office and OECD
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Central government debt
Gross public debt
General government net lending in Sweden, the euro area and the United KingdomPer cent of GDP
Sources: OECD and the Riksbank
Note. Red broken line represents the Riksbanks’s forecast, blue and yellow broken lines represent OECD’s forecast.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10Sweden
Euro area
United Kingdom
Government bond rates of different countriesPercentage points
Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
06 07 08 09 10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10SwedenGermanyPortugalIrelandItalyGreeceSpain