public opinion landscape - energy and the environment

Public Opinion Landscape: Energy and the Environment

April 2014

TABLE OF CONTENTS

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1.  Current Landscape………………………….……………………….………….2 2.  Energy Policy & Poli:cal Percep:ons…………………………….......12 3.  Energy Sources.……………………………………………………………….....22

Slide

Current Landscape

AMERICAN VIEWS ON QUALITY OF ENVIRONMENT REMAIN CONSISTENT OVER PAST 5 YEARS

3

36% 40%

33% 34% 29%

25% 25% 26%

41% 41% 42% 42% 41% 42%

57% 54%

57% 58% 63%

67% 67% 68%

51% 48% 48% 49% 49% 50%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Right now, do you think the quality of the environment in the country as a whole is geNng bePer or geNng worse?

Ge(ng worse Ge(ng be0er

Source: Gallup Poll, March 6-‐9, 2014 Note: “Same” and “no opinion” results not shown

MOST AMERICANS WOULD RATE THE QUALITY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AS EXCELLENT OR GOOD

4

46% 47%

41% 43% 41% 40% 40% 40% 39%

46% 45% 44% 48%

44%

6% 7% 10% 11% 10% 11% 11% 11%

16%

9% 11% 10% 8% 11%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Excellent/Good Poor

How would you rate the overall quality of the environment in this country today – as excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

Note: “Fair” results not shown

Source: Gallup Poll, March 6-‐9, 2014

A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS CONTINUE TO SAY THEY WORRY A GREAT DEAL OR A FAIR AMOUNT ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING

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58% 51%

62% 65% 66% 60%

52% 51% 55% 58% 56%

40% 47%

36% 34% 33% 39%

48% 48% 45% 43% 43%

2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

I’m going to read you a list of environmental problems. As I read each one, please tell me if you personally worry about this problem a great deal, a fair amount, only a liPle, or not at all. First, how much do you worry about [global warming]?


Worry a great deal/a fair amount Only a li0le/not at all

MOST AMERICANS SAY THERE IS EVIDENCE OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE OVER PAST DECADES

6 Note: “DK/ref” results not shown

From what you’ve read and heard, is there solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been geNng warmer over the past decades, or not? [If yes, why?]

Source: Pew Research Center, October 9-‐13, 2013

Sep/Oct 2009

Oct 2010

Feb/Mar 2011

Nov 2011

Oct 2012

Mar 2013

Oct 2013

Yes 57% 59% 58% 63% 67% 69% 67%

Mostly because of human ac:vity such as burning fossil fuels

36% 34% 36% 38% 42% 42% 44%

Mostly because of natural paPerns in the earth's environment

16% 18% 18% 18% 19% 23% 18%

No 33% 32% 34% 28% 26% 27% 26%

7

Human ac:vity 46%

Natural paPerns 34%

Global warming does not exist 14%

Caused by both 3%

Not sure what it's caused by

2% DK/ref 2%

Which statement comes closest to your view about global warming? 1. Global warming is caused mostly by human ac:vity such as burning fossil fuels. 2. Global warming is caused mostly by natural paPerns in the earth's environment. 3. Global warming does not exist.

Source: CBS News Poll, February 19-‐23, 2014

LESS THAN HALF OF AMERICANS BELIEVE GLOBAL WARMING IS CAUSED BY HUMAN ACTIVITY; 14% DISMISS EXISTENCE

YET AMERICANS ARE MORE LIKELY TO SAY THE SERIOUSNESS OF GLOBAL WARMING IS EXAGGERATED

8

31%

33%

38%

31% 30% 33%

35%

41%

48%

43% 42% 41% 42%

32%

29%

25%

29% 28% 29%

33% 29%

24% 26%

24% 24% 23%

32% 33% 33%

35% 38%

35%

29% 28% 25%

29% 31%

33% 33%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Thinking about what is said in the news, in your view is the seriousness of global warming – [generally exaggerated, generally correct, or is it generally underes:mated]?

Note: “DK/ref” results not shown

Exaggerated UnderesUmated Correct

AND A LARGE MAJORITY DOUBT GLOBAL WARMING WILL SERIOUSLY IMPACT THEIR WAY OF LIFE

9

65% 62% 58% 60%

67% 61% 64% 64%

33% 35% 40% 38%

32% 38%

34% 36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2002 2006 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014

Note: “No opinion” results not shown

Do you think that global warming will pose a serious threat to you or your way of life in your life:me?


No Yes

EVEN WHEN FRAMED AS A SCIENTIFIC STATEMENT, AMERICANS STILL UNDECIDED ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING

10

On the next few screens, you’ll see a series of statements about science and medicine. For each of them, please indicate how confident you are that the statement is correct. [The average temperature of the world is rising, mostly because of man-‐made heat-‐trapping greenhouse gasses]

Source: AP-‐GfK Poll, March 20-‐24, 2014

33%

28%

37%

Extremely/Very confident Somewhat confident Not too/Not at all confident

HOWEVER, MOST BELIEVE GLOBAL WARMING HAS ALREADY BEGUN, WITH EXCEPTION OF REPUBLICANS

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WHEN EFFECTS WILL OCCUR All Democrats Independents Republicans

Already begun 54% 73% 51% 36%

Will begin within a few years 3% 4% 2% 2%

Will begin within life:me 8% 6% 10% 4%

Will affect future genera:ons 16% 13% 14% 22%

Will never happen 18% 3% 19% 34%

Which of the following statements reflects your view of when the effects of global warming will begin to happen?

SERIOUS THREAT TO WAY OF LIFE All Democrats Independents Republicans

Yes 36% 56% 32% 19%

No 65% 44% 67% 81%


12

Energy Policy & Political Perceptions

33% 36%

42% 44%

36% 37% 37% 42%

51% 53%

43%

54% 49% 48%

41%

57% 54%

47% 49% 53% 52%

55% 49%

42% 38%

50%

36% 41% 43%

50%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Environment Economic Growth

AMERICANS NOW PRIORITIZE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION OVER ECONOMIC GROWTH

13 Note: “Equal priority” and “No opinion” results not shown.

Which one of these statements about the environment and the economy do you most agree – [ROTATED: protec:on of the environment should be given priority, even at the risk of curbing economic growth (or) economic growth should be given priority, even if the environment suffers to some extent]?


March May

BP oil spill occurred April 2010

DEMOCRATS & REPUBLICANS FAR APART ON ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH PRIORITIES

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59% 64% 70% 61%

74% 66% 68%

59%

34% 31% 22% 27%

19% 27% 27% 32%

2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Republicans’ Views of Priori:zing the Environment vs. Economic Growth

Democrats’ Views of Priori:zing the Environment vs. Economic Growth

Environment

Economic Growth

33% 44% 41% 34%

42% 42% 35% 27%

59% 50% 49%

61% 46% 50% 55%

66%

2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Environment

Economic Growth

Note: Equal priority and No opinion results not shown.

36% 40% 40%

44% 39% 42%

34% 41%

46%

50%

39%

50% 47% 46%

40%

52% 52% 49% 48% 52% 49%

58%

50% 47%

43%

55%

41% 44% 45%

51%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

AMERICANS NOW ALSO SAY ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION SHOULD BE GIVEN PRIORITY OVER ENERGY DEVELOPMENT

15


With which one of these statements about the environment and energy producUon do you most agree – [ROTATED: protec:on of the environment should be given priority, even at the risk of limi:ng the amount of energy supplies – such as oil, gas, and coal – which the United States produces (or) development of U.S. energy supplies – such as oil, gas, and coal – should be given priority, even if the environment suffers to some extent]?

Note: Equal priority and No opinion results not shown.

Environmental protecUon Energy development

AMERICANS STILL FAVOR ENERGY CONSERVATION OVER OIL, GAS, AND COAL PRODUCTION

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33% 30% 29% 31%

28%

35%

26% 29%

36% 41% 40%

36% 34%

56% 60% 60% 59% 61%

55%

64% 61%

52% 48%

51% 51% 57%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

More energy conservaUon More energy producUon

Which of the following approaches to solving the na:on’s energy problem do you think the U.S. should follow right now – emphasize produc:on of more oil, gas, and coal supplies or emphasize more conserva:on by consumers of exis:ng energy supplies?

Source: Gallup Poll, March 6-‐9, 2014 Note: No opinion results not shown.

17 DChart Title

Source: Pew Research Center, Jan 15-‐19, 2014

15%

2%

3%

20%

10%

7%

31%

41%

40%

29%

45%

49%

Dealing with global warming

Dealing with the na:on's energy problem

Protec:ng the environment

Top priority

Important but lower priority

Not too important

Should not be done

Note: “DK/ref” results not shown

PROTECTING THE ENVIRONMENT HIGHER PRIORITY THAN DEALING WITH GLOBAL WARMING

I’d like to ask you about priori:es for President Obama and Congress this year. As I read from a list, tell me if you think each should be a top priority, important but lower priority, not too important or it should not be done.

NEARLY HALF THINK THE GOVERNMENT IS DOING TOO LITTLE TO PROTECT THE ENVIRONMENT

7% 5% 5% 4%

15% 16% 17% 16% 17%

51% 55%

58% 62%

46% 49% 51% 47% 48%

37% 37% 34% 33% 35% 33%

30% 35% 34%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Too li0le About the right amount Too much

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Do you think the U.S. government is doing too much, too liPle, or about the right amount in terms of protec:ng the environment?

Note: “No opinion” results not shown


AMERICANS CONTINUE TO SEE OBAMA BETTER ON PROTECTING THE ENVIRONMENT THAN IMPROVING ENERGY POLICY

19

79%

52% 55% 56% 55% 51%

72%

43% 41% 43% 46% 42%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Do you think Barak Obama is doing a good job or a poor job in handling each of the following issues as president? [% good job}

ProtecUng the naUon’s environment Improving the naUon’s energy policy

Source: Gallup Poll, March 6-‐9, 2014 Note: No opinion results not shown.

MORE AMERICANS THINK DEMOCRATS HAVE BETTER APPROACH TO ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY

30%

15%

7%

16%

28%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Democrats Republicans Independents None Don't know

In your opinion, which poli:cal party has a bePer plan, policy or approach to the environment?

Source: Ipsos/ Reuters, March 9-‐18, 2014 Note: “Other” results not shown 20

AMERICANS FAVOR GREEN ENERGY PROPOSALS

Favor Oppose

Spending more government money on developing solar and wind power 67% 32%

Spending government money to develop alternate sources of fuel for automobiles 66% 33%

SeNng higher emission and pollu:on standards for business and industry 65% 35%

More strongly enforcing federal environmental regula:ons 64% 34%

Imposing mandatory controls on carbon dioxide emissions/other greenhouse gasses

63% 35%

SeNng higher auto emissions standards for automobiles 62% 35%

Opening up land owned by the federal government for oil explora:on 58% 41%

SeNng stricter standards on the use of techniques to extract natural gas from the earth, including “fracking”

58% 37%

Expanding the use of nuclear energy 47% 51%

21

I am going to read some specific proposals. For each one, please say whether you generally favor or oppose it. How about…


Energy Sources

SOLAR, WIND, AND GAS ARE MOST COMMONLY SEEN AS HAVING BENEFITS WHICH OUTWEIGH THEIR RISKS

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Benefits outweigh risks Risks outweigh benefits Not at all sure

Solar 78% 7% 15%

Wind 76% 9% 15%

Natural gas 68% 15% 17%

Geothermal 52% 8% 40%

Coal 41% 40% 19%

Nuclear 37% 40% 22%

Biomass 29% 9% 61%

There are many sources of electric power used in the U.S. To the best of your knowledge, would you say the benefits of each source outweigh the risks or do you believe the risks outweigh the benefits?

Source: The Harris Poll, February 12-‐17, 2014

A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS FAVORS KEYSTONE XL PIPELINE

24

Do you favor or oppose building the Keystone XL pipeline that would transport oil from Canada’s oil sands region through the Midwest to refineries in Texas?

Source: Pew Research Center, February 27 -‐ March 16, 2014

Approve 61%

Disapprove 27%

DK/Ref (vol.) 12%

AMERICANS SEE MORE JOB CREATION DUE TO PIPELINE VERSUS ENVIRONMENTAL RISK

25

85%

47%

10%

44%

Create a significant number of jobs Pose a significant risk to the environment

Would Would not

Do you think this pipeline would or would not [create a significant number of jobs/pose a significant risk to the environment]?

Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, February 27 – March 2, 2014

KEYSTONE XL PIPELINE DIVIDES DEMOCRATS

38%

9%

29%

49%

84%

61%

Democrat Republican Independent

Oppose Favor

26

Do you favor or oppose building the Keystone XL pipeline that would transport oil from Canada’s oil sands region through the Midwest to refineries in Texas?

Source: Pew Research Center, February 27 -‐ March 16, 2014

Oppose, 47%

Favor, 39%

Oppose, 34%

Favor, 53%

Non-‐college grad Dem

College grad + Dem

A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS FAVOR KEEPING OIL IN AMERICA; SPECIFICALLY, TO LOWER GAS PRICES

27

We should sell it to other countries to bolster the US economy 13%

We should keep it for American Consumers to lower US gas prices 77%

Don’t know 11%


We should keep it for American consumers so that the US never has to rely on foreign oil sources

72%

Don’t know 12%


We should keep the oil we are producing and build more refineries to produce more gasoline

62%

Don’t know 17%

The US Department of Energy has stated that by the year 2020, the US will be the world’s larges oil producer. What do you think that the United States should do with all the oil we are now producing?

Source: Ipsos/Reuters Poll March 15-‐19, 2015

MOST SUPPORT GOVERNMENT RESTRICTIONS ON GASOLINE EXPORTS TO PROTECT U.S. GAS PRICES

28

76%

57%

18%

39%

11%

24%

71%

39%

13%

19%

12%

22%

The US government should restrict gasoline exports to protect gas prices here in America

The US government should restrict gasoline exports

US oil producers should be allowed to export crude oil produced in the United States

overseas to other countries even if it means that gas prices in the US go up

US oil producers should be allowed to export crude oil produced in the United States

overseas to other countries

Agree Disagree Don't know

At the moment, crude oil exports are limited so that American companies are only allowed to export crude oil to Canada, and no other countries. Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements.

Source: Ipsos/Reuters Poll March 15-‐19, 2014

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GPG Research

GPG has a full-‐scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualita:ve and quan:ta:ve public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communica:on strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor cri:cal issues and track the effec:veness of strategic communica:on campaigns.

GPG has a deep experience conduc:ng research about complex economic and poli:cal topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innova:ve, projec:ve techniques to uncover key insights. The result is ac:onable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.

For more informaUon about this presentaUon or to find out more about GPG’s research capabiliUes contact:

Jason Boxt ([email protected])