Election 2012: A Brief Overview and Analysis

October 10, 2012

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Political Context………………………………………………………….………..3

2. Views of the Candidates..……………………………………………….…….6

3. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race ……………..….……...10

4. Battleground States……….……………………………………………...……15

5. Battle for Congress……………………….……………………….…………...23

6. The Debates……………………………………………………………………….27

Slide

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Political Context

NUMBER WHO THINK COUNTRY IS ON THE WRONG TRACK TRENDING DOWN; JOBS IS TOP ISSUE

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Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data

As of October 9, 2012

PROBLEM %

Unemployment and jobs 43

The federal deficit 14

Health care 11

Gas prices 7

The situation in the Middle East 6

Taxes 4

Immigration 3

Terrorism 3

Which of the following do you see as the most important issue facing the country right now?

Source: Bloomberg National Poll, September 21-24, 2012

WRONG TRACK 54.7%

RIGHT DIRECTION 38.4%

FOLLOWING DEBATE, ROMNEY’S SUPPORTERS FAR MORE ENGAGED IN THE CAMPAIGN THAN THEY WERE IN SEPTEMBER

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Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 4-7, 2012 Among Registered Voters

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Views of the Candidates

FOLLOWING CONVENTION, AMERICANS NOW APPROVE OF OBAMA’S OVERALL JOB PERFORMANCE

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Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue…

Issue NET APPROVE

NET DISAPPROVE

Standing up for the middle class 58% 39%

Taxes 51% 46%

Foreign policy 50% 45%

Medicare 50% 44%

The economy 48% 51%

The federal budget and spending

40% 57%

Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, Sept. 16-20, 2012

DISAPPROVE 47.4%

APPROVE 49.6%

Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data , as of Oct. 10

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JOB APPROVAL RATINGS FOR INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION

Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data

Presidential Job Approval January March June October

2012: Barack Obama 44% 46% 47% ?

2004 George W. Bush 60% 49% 49% 50%

1996: Bill Clinton 42% 54% 58% 58%

1992: George H.W. Bush 46% 41% 37% 33%

1984: Ronald Reagan 52% 54% 55% 58%

1980: Jimmy Carter 56% 43% 32%

1976: Gerald Ford 56% 43% 32%

1972: Richard Nixon 49% 56% 59%

1964: Lyndon Johnson 77% 77% 74%

Selected dates, as available, in year of re-election

President’s in red lost re-election

Obama Averages 49% Job Approval in September

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Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data

ROMNEY’S POPULARITY SEES IMPROVEMENT, OBAMA IS VIEWED MORE FAVORABLY

UNFAVORABLE 45.1% FAVORABLE 51.5%

UNFAVORABLE 48.5% FAVORABLE 46.3%

As of October 9, 2012

Barack Obama Favorable Rating Mitt Romney Favorable Rating

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Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race

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FOLLOWING DEBATE, OBAMA’S LEAD OVER ROMNEY HAS DISAPPEARED

Source: RCP Poll Average

October 10, 2008 %

Obama 49.4

McCain 42.8

Obama +6.6

October 9, 2008 %

Bush 48.0

Kerry 45.8

Bush +2.2

A Look Back Four Years Ago Today

Eight Years Ago Today

Source: Real Clear Politics

From Sept 26 to Oct 10

OBAMA 47.2%

ROMNEY 48.0% +0.8

October 3, 2012

+3.1

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AMONG LIKELY VOTERS

Note: “Other (vol),” and “Undecided” results are not shown.

45%

94%

42%

7%

49%

5%

46%

91%

All Democrats Independents Republicans

Obama Romney

ROMNEY HAS SLIGHT LEAD AMONG INDEPENDENTS

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, Oct 4-7, 2012

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ROMNEY PULLS EVEN AS “STRONG LEADER”

As I read a list of phrases, tell me if you think each phrase better describes Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, Oct 4-7, 2012 Note: “Both (vol.),” “Neither (vol.),” and “No opinion” results are not shown.

38% 44%

51% 44%

35% 42%

52% 45%

34% 39%

48% 44%

23% 30%

66% 59%

Is a strong leader Is willing to work with leaders from

the other party

Is honest and truthful

Connects well with ordinary Americans

Before Debate

After Debate

Before Debate

After Debate

Before Debate

After Debate

Before Debate

After Debate

Obama Romney

Among Registered Voters

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ROMNEY NOW LEADS ON JOBS, BUDGET DEFICIT

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, Oct 4-7, 2012

Who would do better on… June 28 – Jul 9 Sept 12-16 Oct 4-7

Reducing the federal budget deficit

Obama 36% 43% 36%

Romney 50% 46% 51%

R+14 R+3 R+15

Improving the job situation

Obama 42% 46% 41%

Romney 46% 45% 49%

R+4 O+1 R+8

Dealing with taxes

Obama 48% 48% 43%

Romney 40% 42% 47%

O+8 O+6 R+4

Dealing with Medicare

Obama -- 51% 46%

Romney -- 38% 43%

O+13 O+3

Dealing with health care

Obama 49% 52% 47%

Romney 41% 39% 43%

O+8 O+15 O+4

Statistically significant advantages in bold

Among Registered Voters

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Battleground States

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OR

AK

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

NH

3 12

7

55 6

4 3

6

11 5

9

3

3

5

4

3

4

38

29

6

7

10

6

10

6

8 6 9 16

29

9 15 13

11

20 11

10 16

18 20

8 5

THE ELECTORAL MAP

Electoral Count (as shown):

Romney: 181 Obama: 251 Toss-Up: 106

VT 3

NH 4

RI 4

NJ 14

CT 7

DE 3

MD 10

DC 3

MA 11

Source: Real Clear Politics (as of October 8, 2012)

OBAMA LEADS IN FIVE TOSS-UP STATES, ROMNEY LEADS IN THREE

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Source: Real Clear Politics, as of October 9, 2012

States Obama Romney Obama Romney

Colorado 47.4% 47.2% 9 0

Florida 47% 47% 0 29

Iowa 48.6% 45.4% 6 0

Missouri 43.8% 49% 0 10

Nevada 50.3% 45.7% 6 0

North Carolina 47.6% 48.4% 0 15

Ohio 49% 46% 18 0

Virginia 47.8% 47.5% 13 0

Swing State Voters 52 54

Leaning/Likely State Voters 251 181

Total Overall Votes 303 235

RCP POLL AVERAGE ELECTORAL VOTES

FLORIDA: WILL IT KEEP US HANGING IN 2012?

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29 Electoral Votes

Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator

2008 Results

Obama 50.9%

McCain 48.4%

Pre-Debate

Obama +.1

Obama: 47.3%

Romney: 47.2%

Post-Debate

Romney +1.3

Romney: 48.1%

Obama: 46.8%

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18 Electoral Votes

Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator

Pre-Debate

Obama +3.4

Obama: 48.2%

Romney: 44.8%

Post-Debate

Obama +2.2

Obama: 47.8%

Romney: 45.6%

OHIO: WILL IT BUCK THE TREND AS A SWING STATE?

2008 Results

Obama 51.2%

McCain 47.2%

VIRGINIA: BLUE AND RED GO HEAD TO HEAD

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13 Electoral Votes

Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator

Pre-Debate

Obama +.7

Obama: 47.3%

Romney: 46.6%

Post-Debate

Romney +.6

Romney: 47.4%

Obama: 46.8%

2008 Results

Obama 52.7%

McCain 46.4%

NORTH CAROLINA: WILL IT SHOCK US AGAIN?

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15 Electoral Votes

Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator

Pre-Debate

Romney +2.7

Romney: 48.5%

Obama: 45.8%

Post-Debate

Romney +4.2

Romney: 49.4%

Obama: 45.2%

2008 Results

Obama 49.9%

McCain 49.5%

COLORADO: CAN THEY GET IT RIGHT 4 TIMES IN A ROW?

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9 Electoral Votes

Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator

Pre-Debate

Obama +1.2

Obama: 47.6%

Romney: 46.4%

Post-Debate

Obama +.8

Obama: 47.5%

Romney: 46.8%

2008 Results

Obama 53.5%

McCain 44.9%

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Battle for Congress

2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH

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Likely Dem (6) Lean Dem (3) Toss-Up (11) Lean Rep (0) Likely Rep (1)

ME* (Open) – Republican FL (Nelson) – Democrat AZ (Open) – Republican NE (Open) – Democrat

HI (Open) – Democrat NM (Open) – Democrat CT (Open) – Democrat

MI (Stabenow) – Democrat PA (Casey) – Democrat IN (Open) – Republican

NJ (Menendez) – Democrat MA (Brown) – Republican

WA (Cantwell) – Democrat MO (McCaskill) – Democrat

WV (Manchin) – Democrat MT (Tester) – Democrat

NV (Heller) – Republican

ND (Open) – Democrat

OH (Brown) – Democrat

VA (Open) – Democrat

WI (Open) – Democrat

Source: Real Clear Politics, as of October 9, 2012 *Former Gov. Angus King is likely to caucus with the Democrats if he wins the open Maine seat

LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES

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Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of October 9, 2012)

OR

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NC

NH

OH

(8/20 – 9/19)

Rehberg : 46% Tester: 44%

MT

Heller: 45% Berkley: 43%

(9/18-9/27)

(9/16-10/6)

Baldwin: 49% Thompson: 44%

(9/16-10/3)

McCaskill: 46% Akin: 44%

Kaine: 49% Allen: 44%

(9/24-10/7)

Warren: 47%

Brown: 45%

(9/21-10/7)

WI

NV

MO VA

MA

AZ

Flake: 44% Carmona: 42%

(9/25-10/3)

ND

(5/3-7/11)

Berg: 49% Heitkamp: 44%

CT

(9/11-10/2)

Murphy: 44% McMahon: 41%

Brown: 48% Mandel: 43%

(9/27-10/4)

VOTERS NOW PREFER THE SAME PARTY TO HAVE CONTROL OF CONGRESS AND PRESIDENCY

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Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey, September 26-30, 2012

In general, do you think that it is better for the same political party to control both the Congress and the presidency, so they can work together more closely, or do you think that it is better to have different political parties controlling Congress and the presidency to prevent either one from going too far?

28% 23% 24%

39% 43% 41% 41% 31%

52%

64% 67% 67%

47% 44% 47% 48%

62%

39%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Better if same partycontrols Congressand the presidency

Better if differentparties controlCongress and thepresidency

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The Debates

DEBATE WATCHERS SAY ROMNEY DID BETTER

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Source: Gallup Poll, Oct 4-5, 2012

72%

97%

70%

49%

20%

2%

19%

39%

All Republicans Independents Democrats0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100% Romney Obama

Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in last/Wednesday night’s debate – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

AMONG DEBATE WATCHERS

Note: “Both,” “Neither,” and “No opinion” results are not shown.

UPCOMING DEBATE SCHEDULE

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Date Debate Focus

Thurs, Oct 11 Vice Presidential Debate Foreign and domestic topics

Tues, Oct 16 Second Presidential Debate Town meeting format

Mon, Oct 22 Third Presidential Debate Foreign policy

Source: Commission on Presidential Debates

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GPG Research

GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.

GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.

For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:

Joel Johnson (jjohnson@gpgdc.com) or David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com)