public opinion landscape – the economy

The Economy – American Public Opinion Landscape

April, 2014

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1

1.  Current Economic Indicators…………………………………………….....2

2.  Percep<ons of Economic Condi<ons / Views of the Future…………………………………………………………………………………..3

3.  President Obama, Congress and the Economy…………….……..10

4.  Views on Job Situa<on.….....…….……………………………..……….…15 5.  Views on Personal Financial Situa<on…………………………………21 6.  Views on Taxes………………………………………………...………………..27

Slide

CURRENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS SHOW IMPROVEMENT OVER ONE YEAR AGO

2

INDICATOR A YEAR AGO April 2013

NOW April 2014

Unemployment Rate 7.6% 6.7%

Infla<on Rate 1.5% 1.5%

Stock Market (DJIA) 14,839.80 16,173.24

Consumer Confidence Index 78.6 82.6

U.S. Interest Rates .25% .25%

Consumer Price Index (CPI) 231.485 235.17

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Sta<s<cs, Trading Economics

3

Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future

MAJORITY OF AMERICANS CONTINUE TO FEEL THE NATION IS ON THE WRONG TRACK

4

Source: Huffpost Pollster Aggregate Data, as of April 14, 2014

RIGHT DIRECTION 29.5%

WRONG TRACK 60.4%

REPUBLICANS ARE LESS SATISFIED WITH THE WAY THINGS ARE GOING

5

In general, how sa<sfied are you with the way things are going in the na<on today; are you very sa<sfied, somewhat sa<sfied, somewhat dissa<sfied, or very dissa<sfied?

Source: Quinnipiac University Poll, January 15-‐19, 2014

0%

10%

29%

59%

Very sa<sfied

Somewhat sa<sfied

Somewhat dissa<sfied

Very dissa<sfied

4%

43%

36%

18%

Very sa<sfied

Somewhat sa<sfied

Somewhat dissa<sfied

Very dissa<sfied

REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS

Note: “Don’t know” results are not shown.

A MAJORITY CONTINUES TO RATE THE CONDITION OF THE ECONOMY AS BAD

6

Source: CBS News Poll, March 20-‐23, 2014

How would you rate the condi<on of the na<onal economy these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad?

19%

32% 37% 37% 37%

80%

66% 61% 62% 61%

Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Dec 2013 Feb 2014 Apr 2014

Bad

Good

7

During the next twelve months, do you think that the na<on’s economy will get beier, get worse, or stay about the same?

Will stay the same

Will get worse

Will get beMer

Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, March 5-‐9, 2014

AND, INCREASING NUMBERS OF AMERICANS THINK THAT THE ECONOMY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY THE SAME IN THE NEXT YEAR

37%

40%

38% 33% 35% 27%

36%

42% 44% 45%

38%

32% 31% 27%

17%

23%

29% 26%

17%

23% 19% 19% 20%

25%

18% 18% 13%

9%

28%

18% 21%

24%

42%

34%

24% 25%

44%

35%

42% 46%

41% 45%

38%

32%

35% 34% 33%

49% 47% 48%

38%

42% 46% 48%

Jan 2012

Mar 2012

Apr 2012

May 2012

Jun 2012

Jul 2012

Aug 2012

Sept 2012

Sept 2012

Oct 2012

Dec 2012

Jun 2013

Jul 2013

Sept 2013

Oct 2013

Oct 2013

Dec 2013

Mar 2014

Note: “Unsure/Refused” results are not shown.

YET, A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS FEELS THE ECONOMY IS RECOVERING

8

Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, February 27 -‐ March 2, 2014

Regardless of whether or not the recession is over, in terms of your own personal experience, do you feel the economy has or has not begun to recover?

Has begun to recover

Has not begun to recover 44%

50% 45%

34%

41% 46%

42% 36%

45% 49%

53% 53% 56%

59% 56% 54%

49% 53%

63% 57%

53% 57%

63%

54% 49%

45% 46% 43% 39%

42%

Nov 09 Dec 09 Feb 10 Oct 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jun 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Mar 12 Dec 12 Mar 13 May 13 Dec 13 Mar 14

Note: “Unsure/Refused” results are not shown.

PESSIMISM SURROUNDING THE NATIONAL DEBT AND HEALTH CARE COSTS FOR THE COMING YEAR

9

Source: Bloomberg Poll, March 7-‐10, 2014

I’m going to men<on some aspects of the na<onal economic situa<on. For each, please tell me if you expect things to be beier in the next 12 months, worse, or about the same as the last 12 months.

BeMer Worse About the same

Not sure

The housing market 42% 16% 37% 5%

America’s economic standing in the world

19% 37% 42% 2%

The size of the na<onal debt 13% 59% 25% 3%

Health care costs 21% 52% 24% 3%

10

Obama, Congress, and the Economy

OBAMA ENTERING THE SPRING WITH AN OVERALL JOB APPROVAL IN THE MID 40S

11

DISAPPROVE 51.5%

APPROVE 44.2%

Source: Huffpost Pollster, Aggregate Data as of April 14, 2014

A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS DISSAPROVE OF OBAMA’S HANDLING OF THE ECONOMY

12

Approve Disapprove

Terrorism 53% 38%

Afghanistan 40% 45%

Health Care 40% 56%

Economy 39% 56%

Foreign Policy 36% 49%

Immigra<on 35% 56%

Source: CBS News Poll, March 20-‐23, 2014

ONE IN THREE AMERICANS PLACE MOST RESPONSIBILITY ON OBAMA FOR THE STATE OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY

13

Who do you think is most responsible for the current state of the na<onal economy? Would you say it is:

Source: Baileground Poll, March 16-‐20, 2014 Note: “Unsure/Refused” results are not shown.

3%

18%

4%

4%

9%

12%

13%

32%

None (VOL)

Combina<on/Other (VOL)

Big Labor Unions

Wealthy People

Big Companies

Republicans in Congress

Democrats in Congress

President Obama

AMERICANS SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENT WITH GOP ON ECONOMIC ISSUES

14

I am going to read you a list of issues. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for each one, whether you have more confidence in the Republican Party or the Democra<c Party to deal with this issue.

Source: Baileground Poll, March 16-‐20, 2014

39%

36%

37%

39%

47%

47%

45%

48%

35%

47%

52%

54%

51%

49%

42%

44%

45%

41%

43%

43%

Represen<ng the middle class

Standing up for the middle class

Medicare

Social Security

Foreign Policy

Taxes

Jobs

The federal budget and spending

Solving problems

The Economy Republican Party DemocraTc Party

Note: “Both Equal”, “Neither” and “Unsure” results are not shown.

15

Views on Job Situation

UNEMPLOYMENT/JOBS SEEN AS THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM FACING THE COUNTRY

16

Source: Gallup Poll, March 6-‐9, 2014

What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?

A PLURALITY THINKS THAT THE NATION’S JOB SITUATION IS CURRENTLY GETTING WORSE

17

Source: Fox News Poll, March 23-‐25, 2014

36%

28%

46% 42%

44%

39%

48%

56%

46% 44%

39%

48%

11% 13%

6% 10%

13% 9%

May -‐10 Jul-‐10 Oct-‐12 Apr-‐13 Jul-‐13 Mar-‐14

Genng beier

Genng worse

Staying the same

Do you think the na<on’s job situa<on is genng beier or genng worse?

HOWEVER, A MAJORITY THINKS THAT IT WILL BE BETTER OR ABOUT THE SAME IN A YEAR

18

I’m going to men<on some aspects of the na<onal economic situa<on. For each, please tell me if you expect things to be beier in the next 12 months, worse, or about the same as the last 12 months.

38% 37%

24%

Beier About the same Worse


75% of Americans think that job growth will be beier or about the same in the next year.

Note: “Not sure” results are not shown.

FEW AMERICANS RATE THE CURRENT JOB MARKET IN THEIR REGION AS GOOD

19

Source: Harris Poll, March 12 -‐ 17, 2014

Good 20%

Neither good nor bad 32%

Bad 47%

How would you rate the current job market of your region of the na<on?

AND MOST AMERICANS BELIEVE THAT THE JOB MARKET IN THEIR REGION WILL STAY THE SAME

20

Source: Harris Poll, March 12 -‐ 17, 2014

7%

16%

55%

21%

2%

Will be much worse

Will be somewhat worse

Will remain the same

Will be somewhat beier

Will be much beier

How do you think that the job market in your region of the na<on will change over the next 6 months?

21

Views on Personal Financial Situation

A PLURALITY OF AMERICANS SAYS THEY ARE BETTER OFF THAN THEY WERE AT THE BEGINNING OF 2009

22

Are you personally beier off or worse off than you were at the beginning of 2009?


About the same

Worse off

Beier off

17%

36%

46%

Note: “Not Sure” results are not shown.

BUT A PLURALITY SAYS THAT THEIR HOUSEHOLD INCOME IS JUST ENOUGH TO PAY THE BILLS

23

Source: CBS News Poll, March 20 -‐ 23, 2014

Thinking about your household income, would you say that it is more than enough so that you can save money or buy some extras, just enough to meet your bills and obliga<ons, or is it not enough to meet your bills and obliga<ons?

Don't know/No answer 2%

Not enough to pay bills

23%

Just enough to pay bills

45%

Can save and buy extras 30%

A SLIM MAJORITY SAYS THEIR STANDARD OF LIVING IS HIGHER THAN WHEN THEY WERE A CHILD

24


Is your current standard of living higher, lower or about the same as your parents’ standard of living when you were a child?

Note: “Not Sure” results are not shown.

54%

23% 21%

Higher About the same Lower

BUT A MAJORITY THINK THEIR FAMILY’S INCOME IS FALLING BEHIND THE COST OF LIVING

25

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, January 15 -‐ 19, 2014

Do you think your family’s income is going up faster than the cost of living, staying about even with the cost of living, or falling behind the cost of living?

Going up faster 7%

Staying about even

34%

Falling behind 57%

Don't know/Refused

2%

MOST AMERICANS SAY THE RECENT GROWTH IN THE STOCK MARKET HAS HAD LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON THEM

26

Would you say the recent growth in the U.S. stock market has made you feel more financially secure, or has it had liile or no effect on your personal financial situa<on?

More financially secure 21%

Liile or no effect 77%

Not sure 2%


27

Views on Taxes

ONE IN TWO AMERICANS SAY THAT THEIR TAXES ARE TOO HIGH

28

Too high About right

Too low

52%

42%

3%

Do you consider the amount of federal income taxes you have to pay as too high, about right, or too low?

Note: “Refused/Not answered” results are not shown. Source: Gallup Poll, April 3-‐6, 2014

YET, WHEN ASKED ABOUT THEIR “FAIR SHARE,” MOST AMERICANS SAY THE AMOUNT THEY PAY IN INCOME TAXES IS ABOUT RIGHT

29

42%

56%

1%

More than your fair share About right Less than your fair share

Do you feel you pay more than your fair share in federal income taxes, less than your fair share, or is the amount you pay about right?

Note: “Refused/Not answered” results are not shown. Source: McClatchy-‐Marist Poll, April 7-‐10, 2014

30

GPG Research

GPG has a full-‐scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualita<ve and quan<ta<ve public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communica<on strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor cri<cal issues and track the effec<veness of strategic communica<on campaigns.

GPG has a deep experience conduc<ng research about complex economic and poli<cal topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innova<ve, projec<ve techniques to uncover key insights. The result is ac<onable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.

For more informaTon about this presentaTon or to find out more about GPG’s research capabiliTes contact:

Jason Boxt ([email protected])

public opinion landscape – the economy

Economy & Finance