quan ly rui ro du an xd cho sasco 19-5-2016

7/26/2019 Quan Ly Rui Ro Du an Xd Cho SASCO 19-5-2016

1/61

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn 1

QUN L RI RO DNU TXY DNG

Ti liu lu hnh ni bGing vin: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn, IU VNU HCM


2/61


QUN L RI RO DNXY DNG

Ti liu lu hnh ni bGing vin: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn, IU VNU HCM


3/61


4/61

1.1. CC KHI NIM CBN



5/61


RUI RO LA G ?

o Cha c nh ngha thng nht vri roo Theo trng phi truyn thng, ri ro c xem l

skhng may mn, stn tht mt mt, nguyhim.o Ri roc xem l iu khng lnh, iu khng tt, bt

ngxy n.o Ri ro l stn tht vti sn hay l sgim st li

nhun thc tso vi li nhun dkin.o Ri ro cn c hiu l nhng bt trc ngoi mun

xy ra trong qu trnh kinh doanh, sn xut cadoanh nghip, tc ng xu n stn ti v phttrin ca mt doanh nghip


6/61


RUI RO LA G ?

o Theo trng phi hin i, ri ro (risk) l sbttrc c tho lng c, va mang tnh tch

cc, va mang tnh tiu cc.o Ri ro c thmang n nhng tn tht mt mt cho

con ngi nhng cng c thmang li nhng li ch,nhng chi.

o Nu tch cc nghin cu ri ro, ngi ta c thtm ranhng bin php phng nga, hn chnhng ri rotiu cc, n nhn nhng chi mang li kt qutt

p cho tng lai


7/61


RUI RO LA G ?

o Ri ro phthuc vo ngcnh, nu con ngi khngc khi nim hoc khng lin quan n th hkhng c

ri ro.oV dtri ma sl ri ro vi ngi i ng

nhng ngi trong phng ng kn ca, khng b

nh hng th khng c ri ro.o Ri ro phthuc vo cm nhn ca tng ngi

oNgi ny thchnh bi, ngi khc li khng thch


8/61


RUI RO DN LA G ?o Ri r o dn l mt skin c the dov cn

trvic thc hin dn theo tin thi gian vtrong khun khngn sch (http://voer.edu.vn/c/xac-dinh-rui-ro/10d828a4/16f382b1)


9/61


QUN L RUI RO DNo Qun l ri ro dn l qu trnh

o nhn dng,

o xc nh, phn tch, o lng mc ri ro,

o trn cs la chn, trin khai v qun l cc hot

ng i ph vi ri ro m c thxy ra trong sutvng i dn


10/61


QUN L RUI RO DNo Qun l ri ro nhm ngn chn v gim thiu

nhng tn tht do ri ro gy ra cho dn

o Qun l ri ro l qu trnh lin tc trong tt ccc giai on ca vng i dn


11/61

1.2. QUY TRNH QUN LRI RO DN



12/61

QUY TRNH QUN L RI RO DN

4. Phn tchnh lngri ro

5. Lp khochi ph ri ro

6. Kimsot riro

1. Lp khoch qun lri ro

2. Xc nhri ro

3. Phntch nhtnh ri

ro

Qu trnhqun l riro

12Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn


13/61

1.3. KHOCH QUN LRI RO DN



14/61


LPKHOCH QUN L RI RO DN

(KHQLRRDA)

o KHQLRRDA nh r lm thno m cc ri

ro lin quan n dn .. sc nhn dng ,phn tch v qun l.

o

N trnh by cc hot ng qun l ri ro sc thc hin, c ghi li v c theodi xuyn sut vng i dn v cung cp

cc thc hnh ng ph theo thtu tinvi cc ri ro


15/61


LP KHOCH QUN L RI RO DN

o L bcu tin nhngc bit quan trng

bi v n quytnh s thnh cng ca 5 bccn li

o

Ti sao quan trng?


16/61

CU TRC CA MT KHOCH QUN

L RI RO DN1. MU1.1 Mcch caKhoch qun l ri ro dn

(KHQLRRDA)

2 THTC QUN L RI RO DN2.1 Quy trnh

2.2 Nhn dng ri ro2.3 Phn tch ri ro

2.3.1 Phn tchnh tnh

2.3.2 Phn tchnh lng2.4 K hoch phnng vi ri ro2.5 Theo di, kim sot v bo co ri ro



17/61

CU TRC CA MT KHOCH QuN

L RI RO DN

3 CC CNG C

PH DUYT KHOCH QUN L RI RO DN

CC PH LC



18/61

1.4. XC NH RI RO



19/61


Nhndng riro

Nhnthc riro

Xc nh

ri ro


20/61


1.4. XC NH RI RO - NHN

THC RI RONHN THC RI RO

Ban qun l dn tnh gi: c hay chng dnm hang qun l si din vi cc ri ro Nu cu trli l c, th dn ca bn sc thgp

ri ro v bn nn nhanh chng thc hin bc ktip. Kinh nghim v trc gic l cha kha ca bcny

Pht trin RBS (Risk Breakdown Structure) nhnng ngun ca ri ro


21/61



22/61

Bin son & ging: TS. Lu Trng Vn 22


23/61



24/61



25/61


RBS for Construction Design (Chapman, 2001)


26/61


1.4. XC NH RI RO - NHN DNG RI RO

Ban qun l dn cn cvo:

Kinh nghim QLDA

Tnh cht dn Mi trng xung quanh dn

Cc bn tham gia dn Quy nh ca a phng

Xc nh cc ri ro m dn c thgnh chu


27/61


1.4. NHN DNG RI RO - cc cng c

Danh mc ca c c ri ro

Snhn qu

Phng vn

NHN DNGRI RO


28/61

Bien soan va giang: Luu Truong Van, Ph.D candidate, PKNU, Busan, Korea 28


Mt danh mc ca nhng ri ro

Bn c thtxy dng checklist t: Cc bi bo khoa hc cng b

Cc sch v

QLDA v qu

n l r

i ro Csdliu ca cng ty QLDA kin chuyn gia


29/61

Bien soan va giang: Luu Truong Van, Ph.D candidate, PKNU, Busan, Korea 29


V dDanh mc kim traKieu cua rui ro Nha thau Chu au t T van

ieu kien a chat

S thay oi cua khoi lng

Kh hau

Sai lam ve tai chanh

Sai lam cua thau phuTai nan tai cong trng

S thieu kha nang cua quan ly

Lam phat

S tr hoan trong cong viecKiem soat ve moi trng

nh cong

Mau thuan trong tai lieu thit k

Thiet ke co sai sot


30/61

Bin son & gi

ng: TS. L

u Tr

ng V

n 30

1.4. NHN DNG RI RO - cc cng c S

nhn qu


31/61

Bin so

n & gi

ng: TS. L

u Tr

ng V

n 31

1.4. NHN DNG RI RO - cc cng c Phng

vn

Phng vn cc nhn vt chcht ca

cc bn tham gia dn lun ranhng ri ro tim nng m dn c thi din.

Thit kbng cu hi => Mt cng vickhng n gin


32/61

Bin so

n & gi

ng: TS. L

u Tr

ng V

n 32

1.4. NHN DNG RI RO - cc cng c Cc

kthut khc

Brainstorming:nhn dng SWOT (chi/nguy cv im mnh/im yu) cadn


33/61

Bin son & ging: TS. Lu Trng Vn33

Ma trn SWOTS iem manhS1- Ban giam oc co nhieu kinh nghiem trong

quan ly thi cong, co moi quan he rongrai vi khach hang.

S2 Co uy tn vi khach hang truyen thongS3 Co kha nang canh tranh ve giaS4 Co lc lng thi cong nhieu kinh nghiem

W iem yeuW1 Thiet b thi cong lac hauW2 Cha co giai phap quan ly chat

lng, tien o, cung ng vat t toandien.

W3 Lc lng can bo ky thuat ke tha t,cha co nhieu kinh nghiem

W4 Hieu qua s dung von cha caoO C hoiO1 Von au t cho XDCB tangO2 Tang trng kinh te mc caoO3 Nhng thay oi cac qui nh phap

luat ve quan ly va au t trong xaydng

O4 Qua trnh hoi nhap kinh te khu vc

Ket hp S/ OSO-1: Gi vng va phat trien toi a th trng

truyen thong trong tnh(O1,O2,S1,S2,S3,S4)

SO-2: M rong th trng ra cac tnh lan can(O1, O2, O4, S3, S4)

Ket hp W/ OWO-1: au t thiet b thi cong e ap ng

yeu cau khach hang ve chat lng,tien o. (O1, O2, W1)

WO-2: Tng bc xay dng he thong quanly chat lng theo tieu chuan ISO

9001:2000 (O1, O2, O4, W2)WO-3: Thu hut va ao tao lc lng can

bo ky thuat (O1, O2, O4, W3)WO-4:Tang cng hieu qua cong tac thu

hoi von (O1, O2, O3, W4)

T Nguy cT1 Tnh trang giai ngan von cham

T2 Canh tranh khong lanh manh trongau thau

T3 Canh tranh trong nganh ngay canggay gat.

T4 Cac cong ty t nhan, co phan trongkhu vc ngay cang phat trien lnmanh.

Ket hp S/ TST-1: ay manh cong tac tiep th, quang ba

thng hieu. (T2, T3, S1, S2, S3, S4)

Ket hp W/ TWT-1: Han che nhan thau cac cong trnh

cha co san ve von (T1, W4)


34/61

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn34

1.4. XC NH RI RO - cc cng c Cc k

thut khc

Nghin cu nhng dn tng t hon

thnh, t nhn ra nhng ri ro tim nngcho dn ca chng ta

Phn tch cc ginh v cc rng buc cadn lun ra nhng ri ro tim nng m dn c thi din

Phn on ca chuyn gia


35/61

1.5. PHN TCH RI RO



36/61


1.5. Phn tch nh tnh ri ro y l giai on nh tnh 2 thuc tnh chnh ca ri ro: kh

nng xut hin (probablity) v tc ng (impact)

Thng thng, khnng xut hin (probablity) c chia ra3 mc: thp (low), trung bnh (medium) v cao (high).

Thng thng, tc ng (Impact) c chia ra 4 mc: c thbqua (nil), thp (low), trung bnh (medium) v nghim trng

(severe). Cng c khi chia lm 3 mc: thp, trung bnh v cao. Tch hp khnng xut hin (probablity) v tc ng

(Impact) thnh 1 ma trn (cc ti liu English gi l PI

matrix)


37/61


V dvnh ngha mc khnng

xy ra ri roKha nang

rui ro xayra

Mc o Mo ta

Kha nang t (low) Hon ton khong thexay ra hoc Khong thexay ra nhng co the nhan

biet cCo kha nang(Medium)

Co the xay ra

Kha nang cao (High) Xay ra thng xuyen


38/61


V dvnh ngha mc nh gi tc ng ca

r

i ro ti

n

ch

mMc o anhhng

Mc o Mo ta

Co the bo qua c (Nil) Khong tang chi ph, tien o tre

khong ang ke

Thp (Low) Gia tang mot t ve chi ph, va lamtre mot t tien o d an

Anh hng (Medium) Tre nhieu va gia tang chi ph

Anh hng cao (Severe) Tre cc nhieu va gia tang chi phrat cao, khong tuan thu tieuchuan ky thuat


39/61

Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

39

1.5. Phn tch nh tnh ri ro


40/61

Bin son & ging: TS. Lu Trng Vn

40

1.5. nh tnh ri ro cc cng c

Kinh nghim

Phn tch csdliu

ca nhng dn tng t

Dliu thng k c cng b

Khnng xuthin ca ri ro


41/61


1.5. nh tnh ri ro cc cng c

kin chuyn gia / kinh nghim

Csdliuca nhng dn tng t

hon thnh

Dliu thng k c cng b

Tc ng cari ro

Stt Ri M T kt Gii h i h


42/61


Stt Ri ro Mc Tc ng n kt qudn

Gii php i ph ccri ro

1 Kt qukhost a cht sailch vi thct

Trungbnh

Nn mng cng trnh lnst;

Tng cng gim st

2Hskthutsai st,thiu

hng mc

Trungbnh

Phi iu chnh trongqu trnh thi cng, phtsinh kinh ph

La chn nh thu cnhiu kinh nghim, nh gi hsthit k

ngay tlc ban u thamgia u thu

3 Khng hongkinh t Nghimtrng Gi cleo thang, nhthu gp kh khn trongti chnh, khng thchin cam kt theo hp

ng

Dn ko di nhiu nm,cn tnh n hstrtgi, xc nh cc phngthc hp ng kinh t

ph hp


43/61


1.5. Phn tch nh lng ri ro Dng phng php chm im xp hng ri ro

Thang im l ty chn, nhng thng thng chn thangim 10 hay 5.

Thang im 5:

Ty theo khnng xut hin ca ri ro m ngi nh gischn mc (1 l thp v 5 l cao)

Ty theo mc tc ng ca ri ro m ngi nh gi schn mc ph hp (1 l thp v 5 l nghim trng)

im ca ri ro = im khnng xut hin * im tcng


44/61


1.5. Phn tch nh lng ri ro

ST

T M tri ro

Khnngxut

hin

Tc

ng

Xp hng

ri ro

Bn gnhchu

chyu

1

Kt qukhost a cht

sai lch vithc t 5 3 15 Chdn

2

Hskthutsai st, thiu

hng mc 3 3 9 Chdn


45/61


1.5. Phn tch nh lng ri ro ma

trn nh lng ri ro


46/61


Trung Cao Cao

Thp Trung Cao

Thp Thp Trung

Thp TB Cao

Mc nh hng

Xcsu

txyrariro Cao

TB

Thp

1 5 Ph h h l i


47/61


1.5. Phn tch nh lng ri ro

cc cng ckhc Cc cng c khc nh lng nhng ri roc

th:

Phng php EMV (Expected Monetary Value): ltrng hpc bit ca PP cy quytnh; dngra quytnh.

Cy quytnh (decision tree): dng ra quytnh

Phn tch nhy: M phng (simulation): thngc dng

lng ha cc ri ro ti chnh kin chuyn gia


48/61

1.6. LP KHOCH NGPH RI RO



49/61


1.6. Lp khoch i ph ri ro

K hochiphri ro l tp hp cc binphp phnng khi ri r o xy ra

QUTRNH

LA CHN

LP KHOCH

I PHRI RODN

QUTRNH

XUT

CC HOT NG NHM TNDNG CHI V GIM BT HIMHA CA RI RO I VI DN


50/61


1.6. Lp khoch i ph ri ro Nguyn l:

Tp trung cc nlc qun l vo nhng ri ro cim xp hng cao.

a ra cc gii php ng ph nu nhng ri ro

ni trn xut hinu tin nhn lc sn sng ng ph vi ri ro

C thbqua hoc khng tp trung vo cc ri ro

c im xp hng thp


51/61



52/61


1.6. Lp khoch i ph ri ro Cn nhc thi i vi ri ro a ra cc

phng thcphhp

Thng thng, c 4 phng thci ph riro:

1.6. Lp k hoch i p h ri r o


53/61

1.6. Lp k hochi p h ri r o

Phng thci p h ri ro

Text Text

TextTextCHUYNGIAORI RO

CHP

NHN RIRO

N TRNH RI RO

GIM NHRI RO 53Bin son & ging: PGS.TS. Lu Trng Vn

1 6 Lp k hoch i ph ri ro V d v cc phng


54/61


1.6. Lp khoch i ph ri ro V dvcc phng

thc i ph ri roTrnh n ri ro:

Mc d khng th loi tr c mi ri ro, con ngi

thng tm cch trnh n mt s ri ro no V d:

Thay v chn 1 nh thu mi vi kinh nghim km, bnc th chn nh thu c uy tn v tin cy. Tt nhin gic s cao hn. chnh l s nhi khi trnh n riro.

Gim phm vi hotng trnh cc hotngc riro cao

1.6. Lp k hoch i ph ri ro V d v cc


55/61


1.6. Lp khoch i ph ri ro V dvcc

phng thc i ph ri roChuyn giao ri ro:

Thng lin quann khon ph m bn th 3 phi

gnh chu ri ro Cc bin php thng dng:

- M ua bo him

- Bo lnh tin tmng

- Bom thc hin hpng

- Hpng trn gi-


56/61


Dng iu khon hp ng chuyn ri ro



57/61


.6. p oc p o V d v cc

phng thc i ph ri roGim nh ri ro:

L tm cch gim bt xc sut hoc mc tcng

bt lin mt ngng chp nhn no Cc bin php thng dng:

- Khos tk lng

- La chn nh cung cpnnh

- D phng thi gian

- D phng chi ph-



58/61


p p

phng thc i ph ri roChp nhn ri ro:

Ban QLDA quytnh khng thay k hoch d

n ip h vi mt ri ro no hoc l khng ckh nng xy dng bt cchin lngi ph phhp no

Chp nhn tch cc: pht trin mt k hochng phChp nhn tiu cc: Khng lm g ht chon ri ro

xut hin


59/61


1.7. Kim sot ri ro y l qu trnh duy tr vic kim sot cc ri ro

xc nh bc 2, phn tch li cc ri ro xy ra, hiu chnh cc hnh ng trong khochng ph.

Nu ri ro thc txy ra khng nm trong danhmc ri ro c xc nh ttrc bsungv iu chnh danh mc ri ro bc 2

Rt ra cc bi hc kinh nghim ri tliu ha vlu trcc bi hc kinh nghim.

Bi tp nhm v Qun l ri ro


60/61

Bi tp nhm vQun l ri ro

Hy thit lp KHOCH QUN L RI RO cho 01d n ti cng ty ca cc anh/ch

Xcnh cc ri r o t im nngm d n c th chm trn Phn tchnh tnh v phn tchnh lng cc ri ro

nhn dng

Theo gc nhn ca ch u t d n, hy xut ccbin phpi phvi c c ri ro


Xin cam n!


61/61


Xin cam n!

Chuc cac ban, cac SV at nhieu thanh

qua tot trong cong tac !

quan ly rui ro du an xd cho sasco 19-5-2016

Documents