queensland chinese news issue #244

p.02!!!Queensland Chinese News!!!www.qcn.net.au! 244 01.04.2011

!Queensland Chinese News www.qcn.net.au!!! 244 01.04.2011 !!p.03


Ian Rintoul

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Lord Mayor unveils anti-graffi ti campaignLord Mayor Campbell Newman today unveiled a new anti-

graffi ti campaign, calling on residents and visitors to help tackle graffi ti by being the eyes and ears of Brisbane.

Cr Newman and Crime Stoppers Queensland launched the Tag Them Back anti-graffi ti campaign at Brisbane City Councils Sparkes Hill Reservoir at Stafford today to encourage people to report taggers and suspicious activities to Crime Stoppers on 1800 333 000.

Since I launched Brisbanes fi rst dedicated graffi ti taskforce two years ago more than 200 graffi ti vandals have been caught and charged with 6600 offences, he said.

Council has a zero tolerance approach to the crime of graffi ti and spends a whopping $3.6 million per year on graffi ti removal,

quest to rid Brisbanes suburbs of illegal graffi ti once and for all. The graffi ti taskforce has been so successful because they

re working one step ahead of these vandals and catching them before they have a chance to strike again, he said.

Im also committed to removing this unsightly vandalism from our streets quickly and have tripled the number of Councils graffi ti clean up crews from four to 12 since in the last six years.

Last fi nancial year Council spent more than $2 million responding to 140,324 tags and removing 190,363 square metres of graffi ti from council property.

Council also commits $1.5 million each year to the Taskforce Against Graffi ti program, working alongside Queensland Police offi cers to detect and apprehend graffi ti offenders.

There are three ways to Tag Them Back anonymously report online at www.tagthemback.com.au, call the 1800 333 000 Crime Stoppers hotline or SMS the word TAG to 1800 333 000 for more information.

prevention and education.Thats money that could be

spent on parks, cycle paths, playgrounds and all sorts of improvements in the community.

There is still a long way to go and we need the publics help. Cr Newman said Brisbane residents were telling him they

wanted to get rid of all graffi ti from their park benches, bus stops, basketball courts and other public surfaces.

Thats why Im calling on people to get involved in Tag Them Back and report graffi ti taggers and suspicion of tagging to Crime Stoppers, he said.

Crime Stoppers will pass all information received onto the Taskforce Against Graffi ti and offi cers will use this information along with proactive policing strategies to detect and apprehend graffi ti offenders.

Cr Newman said the taskforce had been a major success since its inception and Council would continue to support them in their


House pricesI am increasingly asked if I think the Australian residential property

market will follow overseas markets where values have fallen sharply (by over 20% in many European countries and parts of the United States) since the GFC.

According to Global Property Guides latest survey see table 1below -house prices across the world continued falling, down another 2% in real terms (after allowing for infl ation) during 2010. The rate of decline, however, is slowing, with world house values having fallen 3.5% during 2009. Australias house values, by way of comparison, rose, in real terms, by 11.6% during 2009 and 3.1% last calendar year.

Being out of step with other housing markets across the world is causing some to be quite nervous. The property bears believe it is only a matter of time before house values plummet here. But I wonder.

With a strong all things being equalcaveat, here are my seven reasons why I believe we will not see major falls in home values across Australia any time soon.

1. Population growth.Whilst it has slowed in recent years, we maintain strong population growth. Our domestic population is aging, but our migrant intake is largely in the 20s to late-30s cohort, which means increasing household formation and greater demand for dwellings down the line.

2. Tight lending practices. Our interest rates have room to fall in many countries they dont. We have full recourse loans, giving lenders the right to take any assets of the borrowers if repayment is not made. Many overseas markets which experienced a housing crash have non-recourse loans, which essentially allow borrowers to walk away from debt if things get too tough.

3. High equity. According to mortgage broker AFG, current loan-to-value ratios are around 53%, refl ecting our current conservative position towardsdebt. The long-term average is around 65%. According to the latest offi cial statistics, Australias housing debt to housing assets is 29%, and our debt to overall assets isjust 19%. So in other words, we, as a nation, own around 70% of our homes a far cry from the jingleloans that typifi ed the US housing market collapse.In addition, household balance sheets are being strengthened by additional savings. We are currently saving 10% of our disposable income, which amounted to a staggering $74 billion last year alone. This improved state of our personal fi nances further reduces the risk of house prices collapsing.

4. Undersupply. Not for every dwelling type, but at the bottom third of the market. This helps p l ace a fl oo rboa rd unde r property values. Due to a range of reasons, mostly political, there is an undersupply of basic, affordable housing across our capital cities and now in our major regional centres too.

5. Economy growth. Whilst many of us would like to earn more money, and some feel poorer today than a few years back, nearly all of us can fi nd work. Housing markets usually crash in concert with large falls in employment.

6. Low unemployment. As long as our unemployment rate stays below 8%, then wholesale falls in property values are unlikely. It is currently 5.1%.

7. Few mortgage defaults. Whilstrecent headlines screamed, Rising mortgage arrears, latest fi gures show just 1.37% of home loans across Australia

are 30-days in arrears and 0.54% are three months behind in mortgage payments. The trend is upward, from 1.30% and 0.48% respectively on the previous quarter, but the number of home loans technically in default across Australia is very low.

It pays to take a long-term view. Residential property values when looking at resale performance rather than simplistic medians have risen across Queensland by just over 10% each year over the last decade. Over the last fi ve years this has dropped to about a 6% annual gain and during the last 12 months, values have declined slightly by about 1%.

There is little doubt that values are now falling. How far theywill continue to fall is unknown but I dont think it will be anywhere near as far as most property bears believe.

Harbour wave Lets hope that the Japanese tragedy is the last disaster for a

while.It is hard to comprehend the horror of Japans current trauma and

the enormous task that lies ahead. All the physical damage can be repaired and all the buildings rebuilt, but it is the lives saved that count the most whether by the organized stoicism of the Japanese or the proactive way in which the Japanese have fortifi ed their cities as best they could against earthquakes and tsunamis.

The hysterical ramblings of some of the media highlighted by an ABC host during the peak of the event who pondered on air that the earth might be sending us a message doesnt help. Without diminishing our sympathy or our horror at the shocking loss of life, earthquakes and tsunamis are much the way of Japanese life, just as bushfi res, droughts and fl ooding rains are part of ours. It is no accident that tsunami is a Japanese word. In English it means harbour wave.

The difference between us and the Japanese is that the Japanese actually do lots to mitigate against natural events. We seem to just talk about them. The loss of life would have been far greater if no levee banks were built or evacuation plans werent practiced and enforced. They are a resilient citizenship; where charity begins at home; they think generations ahead, not just for the now or the me, and posers arent that welcome. There is a lot to learn here.

No doubt, given that Japan is the third largest national economy in the world, this event will have an economic impact. How much of an impact depends on how global markets react. The immediate impacts on Japan and the world are hard to quantify, but easier to sketch productivity will suffer, recovery will be delayed, and maybe they will need to switch to gas and coal whi lst they rebuild/repair their nuclear power plants. Hopefully, the nuclear situation will not be a repeat of Chernobyl but more like Three Mile Island, where there was no loss of life, the reactor was decommissioned and a nuclear power plant continues to operate today. Fingers crossed.

D o u g M c Ta g g a r t , C h i e f

Executive of QIC, reminded me late last week that the area affected wasnt as industrialised as elsewhere in Japan and the worst hit area accounts for around 2% of the countrys GPD. He believes that the normal (well, if anything can be counted on as being normal these days) short-run dislocation and interruptions will be quickly replaced by increased economic activity as wealth re-building begins. The silver lining (my words, not Dougs, and without wanting to sound callous) is that any switch from nuclear to coal for power delivery, will be good for Australias thermal coal exports. Given that over half (56% in 2010) of Australias coal and coke exports originate from Queensland, this places us in an attractive position.

History shows that in the economic aftermath of natural disasters, rich countries rebound more strongly, and often faster than anticipated. Look what happened after the Kobe earthquake. At the time, it was predicted to take ten years to rebuild, but it only took 15 months for manufacturing in the area to return to pre-quake levels. This current event, it must be said, is much worse than Kobe and will take longer to recover. But again, rich countries recover and in time most try to rebuild their lost wealth. The economic cost will not be nearly as dreadful as the human toll.

On the home front and in relation to tourism, 367,000 Japanese tourists visited Australia last year. Two thirds came to Queensland. Of the 223,000 who visited Queensland during 2010, most (116,000) went to the Gold Coast and/or the Cairns region (106,000). Japanese tourists account for 7% of Australias overall overseas market and 11% of Queenslands. When factoring in domestic tourism, the Japanese market share is around one percent in Queensland and much less across Australia. Their share of the total Gold Coast tourist market (4.2 million visitors last year) is 3% and 5% in far north Queensland, which attracted over two million visitors in 2010.

Japan hasnt been contributing much to global growth, nor Australian tourism, for some time now. Whilst any fall off in tourists will be felt, it shouldnt be that bad.

Finally and at the risk of sounding, or appearing insensitive to the tragedy that is overtaking Japan it would be reasonable to suggest that many Japanese will be looking for a safe haven. According to the latest offi cial statistics, the Japanese were the fi fth largest overseas buyer of residential property across Queensland last year. They mostly bought on the Gold Coast and in the Cairns region. New developments, with strong FIRB credentials such as Sanctuary Cove, are likely to attract more offshore attention from Japanese buyers in the future.

FINAN

CE

Matusik Property Insights

p.46!!!Queensland Chinese News!!!www qcn net au! 244 01.04.2011

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queensland chinese news issue #244

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