r3 2015 china media inflation trend report

IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS & EFFICIENCY OF MARKETERS & THEIR AGENCIES

R3 2015 China Media Inflation Trend Report

2015 年中国媒体价格增长趋势报告

胜三发布March-2015


Background 背景

• This is the fifth annual edition of the R3 China Media Inflation Report covering actual inflation for Y2014 and inflation forecasts for Y2015 in all key national and local. 胜三自 2010 年开始，连续五年持续对中国媒介市场价格涨幅情况进行研究。我们本次报告覆盖了对 2014 年中国各主要媒体价格的实际涨幅回顾，以及对 2015 年中国各主要媒体价格增长的预测，研究对象包含全国性媒体及地方性媒体。

• In compiling this Report, R3 consulted 50 leading Marketers and Media agencies and we are grateful for their participation. 此次，我们联系了 50 位国内领先的市场主及行业内知名的媒介代理公司协助我们一同完成此报告，我们非常感谢他们对于此份报告所作出的贡献。

• Forecasts from participants have been aggregated into an overall media inflation forecast. Because we do not rely on any one single data source we believe that the R3 Inflation forecasts give one of the the most objective and independent views of media inflation. 我们报告的基础主要是将参与者的调研数据进行整理并分析，从而对中国媒体价格增长情况进行一个全面的预测。我们旨在带给您一个客观的、独立的年度媒体价格增长情况的报告。

2


• We have analyzed all key media in China: TV, Newspapers, Magazines, Radio, OOH, Digital and Mobile. 我们主要针对电视，报纸，杂志，广播，户外媒体，网络以及手机移动终端等几大类媒体进行全方位的研究。

• Inflation forecasts have been divided into 2 sections - national inflation and local inflation for the top 24 cities in China. 我们将中国媒体市场分为全国性媒体及地方性媒体进行深入研究。对于地方性媒体，我们选取了中国市场上最为重要的 24 个城市作为研究对象。

• For OOH we have included: Building LCD’s, Railway media, Bus Transit, etc. For Digital we have included: Portals, Search Engines, Video, SNS, Weibo,

Network Community, IM, AD Alliance/Network and Vertical channels, etc. 对于户外媒体来讲，我们主要考察了网络型户外媒体，包括楼宇液晶视频，地铁媒体，公交车身，候车厅等媒体形式。对于网络媒体而言，我们主要考察了门户网站、搜索引擎、视频类、社交媒体、微博、网络社区、即时通讯、广告联盟以及垂直类网站等几种网站类型• For each media, both the Rate Card Inflation and the forecast Nett Inflation are

shown. 我们的研究报告分别针对媒体刊例价格和市场主的媒介净花费。

Methodology方法论

3


• China marketers have traditionally suffered one of the highest media inflation rates of any developing market and whilst inflation will continue to be a significant factor in media budget setting – the good news is that 2015 should see media costs growing at slower rate than last year. 市场主已经习惯了高涨幅的中国媒体市场。与此同时，媒体价格涨幅指数也是各市场主做年度预算时候需要考虑的重要因素。然而令人欣慰的是，2015 年媒体价格涨幅较往年有所放缓。

• Marketers remain optimistic and are continuing to invest in China but slower GDP growth and lower consumer price inflation should help slow the rate of growth in media costs. 虽然市场主对中国市场仍旧保持较为乐观的态度，持续进行媒体投放；但是随着 GDP 放缓、 CPI 指数近年来持续下降等大环境的影响，预算增加的趋势日趋减缓。

• Digital is now growing smooth and steady meanwhile On-line video is still growing at rapid speed. Radio, Mobile and Movies should all see steady growth with opportunities outside of more mainstream heavily demanded media. 数字媒体价格随着市场发展趋于成熟而整体价格涨幅有所放缓，与此同时视频媒体价格仍持续走高。其次，广播、手机和影院媒体作为更贴近受众生活的非主流性媒体的价格，也随着市场的需求稳定增长。

R3 2015 Media Inflation Forecasts Summary 胜三 2015 年媒介价格涨幅总结

4

TV电视

Digital网络

Magazines杂志

Newspapers报纸

Radio广播

Moblie手机类

OOH户外

MOVIE影院媒体

14%9%

6% 8%

24%

10%7% 8%11%

8%5% 6%

25%

10%6% 8%

2014 2015National Media Net Inflation 2015 vs. 2014

Data Source : Survey to 50 marketers and Agencies, March 2015


Contents

1 2 National Media Inflation

Forecasts全国性媒体价格增长预测3 Local Media Inflation

Forecasts地区性媒体价格增长预测 4 Top Markets – Detailed

Analysis 分市场媒体价格增长分析

Inflation Factors 媒介增长驱动因素分析

5


1 Inflation Factors 媒介增长驱动因素分析


Background of Inflation Forecasts 媒介价格增长预测背景资料

• R3 have identified 4 key factors driving media inflation: 基于调研的反馈信息来看，广告主及广告代理公司，在进行媒介价格增长的预测时，所看重的几个主要因素包括：− Macro economic factors： GDP growth and consumer price index growth 宏观经济因素 : 中国 GDP 增长， CPI 增长。− Projected growth in overall ad spending due to increases in demand 媒介投放量变化− Proliferation and expansion of media scene 媒介环境的不断变化− Continual growth of enterprises in China, and their driving demand for

advertising 企业发展状况及对媒介传播诉求• In the following slides we highlight some of these key factors and recent

news reports. 在接下来的报告中，我们将着重分析这些重要因素，并附上最新的新闻报告 7


Y2008 Y2009 Y2010 Y2011 Y2012 Y2013 Y2014 Y2015e

9.6% 9.1%10.4%

8.9%7.7% 7.7% 7.4% 7.0%

China GDP growth rate 中国 GDP 增长率

• In “Blue Book of China’s Economy” published on Dec. 15th 2014, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released a new forecast on the country’s economy. The predicted GDP growth rate is 7% in 2015. 中国社会科学院 2014 年 12月 15 日发布 2015 年《经济蓝皮书》 ,GDP 增速预测值为 7% 。

1. GDP Projected Growth Scaled Back To 7% GDP 年增长率预计 7%

Data Source 数据来源 : 中国社会科学院发布 2015 年《经济蓝皮书》 ,

CASS Prediction - 2014Dec.7 %

8


2. Economy in China Today – Slowing Growth中国经济现状 - 增速放缓 •Figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Jan 20 2015, that China GDP grew 7.3% in 2014 Q4, lower than 7.7% in 2013 Q4. Higher than the prediction 7.2%. 国家统计局 2015 年 1月 20 日公布的最新数据显示， 2014 年四季度，中国国内生产总值（ GDP）同比增长 7.3% ，低于去年同期的 7.7% ，但高于此前预计的 7.2% 。•China GDP has totaled 10 trillion US$ in 2014, to be the second-largest economy in the world. However, due to the large population and unbalanced stages in regions, China GDP per capita is still far behind the developed world. 中国经济总量在 2014 年约合 10 万亿美元，成为全球第二个经济总量突破 10万亿美元的大国。尽管如此，中国人均 GDP 与发达国家依然相距甚远。•The economic transformation, to varying degrees, will slow down ad demand and ad spending from both domestic and international brands. 从某种程度上，中国经济结构调整和增速放缓，将影响广告主未来的广告预算需求。

9


• In the China Government service Report, China’s consumer prices growth rate should be controlled within 3%.2014 年度政府工作报告提出， 2015 年中国把居民消费价格涨幅控制在 3%左右。• Economic growth and CPI go hand in hand – both helping to fuel the boom in advertising spending – a viscous cycle and serious challenge for controlling media costs. 经济增长和 CPI 是关联的 – 并且都刺激了广告花费的增长

3. CPI Projected Growth Rose Up To 3%CPI 年增长率预计为 3%

Data Source 数据来源 :2014 年政府工作报告

Y2006 Y2007 Y2008 Y2009 Y2010 Y2011 Y2012 Y2013 Y2014 Y2015e

1.5%

4.8%5.9%

-0.7%

3.3%

5.5%

2.7% 2.6%2.0%

3.0%

China CPI growth rate 中国 CPI 增长率

10


TV 电视 NEWSPAPER报纸 MAGAZINE杂志 RADIO广播 DIGITAL网络 OOH户外 MOBILE移动-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2.0%-9.0% -11.0%

12.0%

30.0%

10.0%

50.0%

2015 Media Planning Budget Growth Rate 2015 年各媒体预算增长情况

• “From 2013 to 2016, 36% of the world’s increased advertising revenue will come from Mobile media. And the mobile media will be the fourth largest advertising platform in 2016.” predict by Zenithoptimedia global. 根据实力传播全球的预测数据，从 2013 年到 2016 年，全球新增广告支出总额的 36% 将来自移动广告 ; 移动端将在 2016 年成为世界第四大广告平台。• There will be slower but sustained growth in traditional media. Print is still show a negative growth. 传统媒体的预算增幅相对减缓 , 平面媒体预算持续出现负增长。

4. Media Planning Budget Growth Rate% In Y20152015 年各媒体预算增长情况

11



12

TV电视 RD广播 NP报纸 MG杂志 Traditional OOH传统户外广告

Office LCD商务楼宇视频 Movie影院视频 BUS/Metro LCD 交通类视频

Network OOH网络

-0.5%

10.6%

-18.3%-10.2%

9.5%25.6%

62.3%

-1.8%

36.5%

Y2014 VS Y2013

Y2014 By Media Advertising Revenue 2014 年度各媒体广告收入同比变化

Data Source 数据来源 :CTR

5. Y2014 By Media Advertising Revenue2014 年度各媒体广告收入情况

•According to CTR forecast, 2014 China advertising revenue only increased by 2.2%, traditional media advertising revenue decreased 1.7%.根据央视市场研究预测， 2014 年中国广告增长仅为 2.2% ，其中传统媒体下降 1.7% 。• TV and print ad revenue growth has been negative phenomenon while radio OOH media spending trend is positive. Cinema screen media revenue has significantly improved . 传统媒体中除广播和户外有所增长外，电视和平面媒体均已呈负增长状态。另外，影院视频媒体收入急剧增加。


13

6. Y2015 CCTV &Satellite TV Bidding Revenue2015 年央卫视招标收入回顾

•2015 CCTV Prime Time total bid rate is RMB4.96 billion, premium rate is 76% compared with the bottom rate RMB2.818 billion(not including the failed bidding) .• 2015 年央视黄金资源广告招标现场招标额为 49.6亿，总中标额与标底价总额

28.18亿相比，平均溢价率约为 76%（不包含流标）。•2015 Hunan Satellite TV Prime Time total bid rate is RMB2.23 billion, premium rate is 30% compared with the bottom rate RMB1.85 billion.• 2015 年湖南卫视黄金资源广告现场招标额为 22.3亿，总中标额与标底价总额

18.5亿相比，平均溢价率约为 30% 。 •2015 Zhejiang Satellite TV Prime Time total bid rate is RMB0.6 billion, premium rate is 61% compared with the bottom rate RMB0.374 billion .• 2015 年浙江卫视黄金资源广告现场招标额为 6亿，总中标额与标底价总额 3.74亿相比，平均溢价率约为 61% 。


14

Data Source 数据来源 :Iresearch.cn 艾瑞咨询报告

7. Digital Advertising Revenue Share2013 年第一季度至 2014 年第三季度互联网媒体收入份额

•According to the data revealed by iResearch, 2014 Q3 China digital advertising revenue was 42.22 billion, 37.9% higher than 2013 Q3. 根据艾瑞咨询最新发布数据显示， 2014 Q3 中国网络广告市场规模达到422.2亿元，同比增长 37.9%•Market share of Search ads(Search Engine and Vertical Search) was 58.7%, display ads(Branding Picture, Textlink, Video.etc.)was 41.3%. Search ads remain stable market share, vs display ads slowing growth. 2014 Q3 中国网络广告市场从广告形式来看，搜索类广告占比为 58.7% ，展示类广告占比为41.3% 。效果类广告市场市场规模保持稳定，展示类广告增速相对放缓。

2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3

33.8% 31.8% 31.3% 29.8% 34.3% 33.9% 34.1%

24.9% 27.3% 29.4% 31.9% 27.1% 26.2% 24.6%

22.1% 21.6% 20.8% 20.3% 21.0% 20.7% 22.9%

6.4% 7.2% 7.4% 7.2% 6.9% 8.4% 8.2%12.8% 12.1% 11.1% 10.8% 10.7% 10.8% 10.2% Others其他广告形式

Video视频类广告Branding Picture 品牌图形广告Vertical Search垂直搜索Search Engine搜索引擎

Y2013 Q1 - 2014 Q3 Digital Advertising Revenue Share

2013 年 Q1至 2014 年 Q3互联网媒体收入份额


2 National Media Inflation Forecasts

全国性媒体价格增长预测


National Media Nett Inflation YOY Comparison全国性媒体净价涨幅年度对比

• Slower GDP growth and lower consumer inflation should impact on media prices rises this year - forecasts indicate media inflation will still be significant but lower than previous years. 考虑到整体经济环境的影响 2015 年全国传统性媒体的净价涨幅预测，相对往年变小。

• Car ownership in China reached 154 million in 2014, with a growth of 12.4% over the end of 2013. There is an average annual increase of over 1.1 million cars in recent ten years. With the car ownership sustainable growth and sales target increased, Radio prices growths outstrip all other media in China. 2014 年中国汽车保有量达到 1.54亿，比 2013 年末增长 12.4% 。近十年中国汽车年均增加 1,100多万辆。随着汽车保有量的不断增长、媒体销售目标的不断增长以及广告主对于广播媒体的投放越来越高，使得广播媒体价格持续上涨。

TV电视

Digital网络

Magazines杂志

Newspapers报纸

Radio广播

Moblie手机类

OOH户外

MOVIE影院媒体

15% 13%

8% 8%

21%

13%9%

15%14%

9%6%

8%

24%

10%7% 8%

11%8%

5% 6%

25%

10%6%

8%

Y2013 Nett Inflation% - 2013Y2014 Nett Inflation% - 2014Y2015 Nett Inflation% - 2015 e

National Media Nett Inflation全国性媒体净价价格增长

16



Y2014 Actual VS. Forecast Result Review2014 年媒体实际价格与预测价格涨幅对比

• Forecasts based on aggregated responses from leading Marketer and Media Agency participants. 预测数据来自参与调研的市场主和媒介代理商。

• Y2014 actual VS. forecast result show a declination in media inflation. 对比结果显示 2014年媒体实际价格与预测价格涨幅有差异。• Compare with last round research, most of national media inflation is reduced but 2%

increased inflation in Radio. 与上一次调研结果相比，大多数的全国性媒体价格的涨幅值有所下降，广播媒体却是高于上次调研预期结果 2% 。

TV电视

Digital网络

Magazines杂志

Newspapers报纸

Radio广播

Moblie手机类

OOH户外

MOVIE影院媒体

14%11%

6% 7%

22%

11%8%

15%14%

9%6%

8%

24%

10%7% 8%

Nett Inflation %2014 Forecast

Nett Inflation %2014 Actual

National Media Net Inflation全国性媒体净价价格增长


17


Y2015 Media Inflation Forecasts - National 2015 年媒体价格增长预测–全国性媒体

TV电视

Digital网络

Magazines杂志

Newspapers报纸

Radio广播

Moblie手机类

OOH户外

MOVIE影院媒体

12%14%

10%8%

28%

14%10% 9%

11%8%

5% 6%

25%

10%6%

8%

Ratecard Inflation %刊例价格涨幅 Nett Inflation %净价格涨幅National Media Inflation

全国性媒体价格增长

18

• Nett Inflation is generally lower than Rate card Inflation across all media, due to the increasing discount and bonus rate. 因折扣和赠送资源增加，净价涨幅普遍低于刊例价涨幅。

• According to the marketers and agencies said, Radio ad’s saturation condition of media resource and the revenue target of radio stations is sustained growth are the key attributed factors to higher growth in both Rate card and Nett price. 根据参与调研的广告主和代理公司所讲述，广播媒体因其媒体资源紧张 · 近乎于饱和的状态、媒体主销售目标增长的驱使等原因，广播广告的刊例价与净价涨幅明显于其他媒体。



CCTV 1中央电视台 - 1



CCTV others中央电视台 - 其它

Hunan Satellite

TV湖南卫视

Jiangsu Satellite TV江苏卫视

Anhui Satellite TV安徽卫视

Zhejiang Satellite TV浙江卫视

Dragon TV 东方卫视 Tianjin TV 天津卫视 Beijing TV 北京卫视 Other PSTV 其它省级卫视

4% 5%7%

14%

22%

10%7%

16%

11% 12%

21%

13%

3% 3%

8%10%

17%14% 14%

21%

11% 11%

16%

10%

Ratecard Inflation %刊例价格涨幅 Nett Inflation %净价格涨幅

• The revenue target of national/regional TV stations is sustained growth. 电视台收入目标的持续增长• After 2014 World Cup, CCTV pricing in 2015 tends to be relatively flat. 2014 年因世界杯和招标段的影响，导致价格上涨。 2015 年趋于平缓。• With the price rise of night TV plays and popularity of reality shows, HNTV and ZJTV have a

higher growth. 2015 年晚间电视剧价格上升，以及真人秀节目的火爆，导致湖南卫视、浙江卫视价格涨幅增高。

Y2015 Media Inflation Forecasts - CCTV, PSTV2015 年媒体价格增长预测–央视及省级卫视

National TV Media Inflation全国电视媒体价格增长

Nett Ave. 11%

19



• All digital ad opportunities should see double digit increases in unit costs in Y2015, as more marketers increase their digital marketing spending. 由于广告主对于网络媒体投放效果的认可以及预算的增加，各类型的网络媒体价格均呈现出两位数水平的增长。

• YouTu holds a overall increase in 5-15%, and in non-key markets, iQiyi rises by 15-30%. YouTu 整体涨幅在 5-15% ， iQiyi 非重点市场涨幅较大，涨幅达 15%-30%

Y2015 Media Inflation Forecasts - Digital2015 年媒体价格增长预测–全国性网络媒体

19%14% 13%

18%

10%15%

13% 13% 12% 13%12%

8%11%

13%

5% 6%10%

7%3% 4%

Ratecard Inflation %刊例价格涨幅 Nett Inflation %净价格涨幅National Digital Media Inflation全国网络媒体价格增长

Nett Ave. 8%

20



• The Mobile Market is finally taking off in China, over the last 3 years mobile internet traffic has increased from 1% over the total internet traffic to 10%. Numerous APPs and Wap site emerged. 随着智能移动终端的普及，上网速度的提升，以及涌现的各类APP和移动网站，中国已进入移动媒体与移动营销时代。

• WeChat launched feeds ads in Moments in 2014, and its price can be negotiated case by case from 2015, without rate card. 2014年微信在朋友圈推出信息流广告，2015年开始可以case by case的洽谈，但没有刊例。

Y2015 Media Inflation Forecasts - Mobile2015 年媒体价格增长预测–全国性移动媒体

We Chat 微信营销 Wap site 手机版网站及客户端 App 手机应用程序 Push 主动推送类（短彩信，手机报）

21%

13%15%

5%

19%

10%8%

3%

Ratecard Inflation %刊例价格涨幅 Nett Inflation %净价格涨幅National Mobile Media Inflation

全国移动媒体价格增长

Nett Ave. 10%

21


r3 2015 china media inflation trend report

Marketing