real estate market overview of kv.ee 3rd quarter 2011 · 2013-03-06 · unemployed unemployment...
TRANSCRIPT
Real Estate Market Overview of KV.EE3rd Quarter 2011
Prepared by: Tõnu Toompark, Adaur Grupp OÜ, www.adaur.ee
Contents
Price - annual price change of apartment ownership transactions,%Deals - annual change in number of apartment ownership transactions %,
Tallinn (P9)
Rakvere (P28)Jõhvi (P23)
Kohtla-Järve (P22) Narva (P21)
Jõgeva (P25)
Paide (P26)
Viljandi (P33)Pärnu (P20)
Rapla (P30)
Haapsalu (P27)Kärdla(P24)
Kuressaare (P31) Tartu (P19)
Valga (P32)
Võru (P34)
Põlva (P29)
Haabersti (P10) Kesklinn (P11) Kristiine (P12) Lasnamäe (P14) Mustamäe (P15) Nõmme (P16) Pirita (P17) Põhja-Tallinn(P18)
Deals 0.0%
Prices -4.0%Prices -5.0%Prices +37.0%Prices +3.0%Prices -5.0%Prices +32.0%Prices +3.0%Prices +9.0%
Deals +12.0%Deals -27.0%Deals +10.0%Deals +1.0%Deals +75.0%
Prices +1.0%Prices +17.0% Prices +12.0% Prices +12.0% Prices +41.0% Prices +25.0%Prices +18.0%
Prices -1.0% Prices +18.0%
Prices NA
Prices +13.0% Prices 0.0% Prices -11.0% Prices +3.0% Prices -9.0% Prices +4.0%
Prices +12.0%
Deals -28.0%Deals +51.0% Deals +9.0% Deals -28.0% Deals -9.0% Deals -16.0%Deals +22.0%
Deals +17.0% Deals +4.0%
Deals -20.0%
Deals +25.0% Deals +220.0% Deals -14.0% Deals -3.0% Deals +13.0% Deals -17.0%
Deals +6.0%
Deals -18.0% Deals -24.0%
3
CommentsPurchase Opportunities Missed Due To Poor Economic ConditionsEstonia’s real estate market is leading an active life and moving in a positive direction, regardless of the
events unfolding in the global economy, particularly in Greece, and making consumers insecure. Today can
be deemed a good and right time to buy real estate, assuming that South Europe’s economic problems,
which daily bring us contradictory news, will be solved someday.
The high ratio between earnings, meaning the purchasing power, and the prices of real estate, particularly
the prices of residential premises, is paradoxical. Unfortunately, often this potential is not fulfilled because
massive unemployment and non-rising real wages do not allow people to make transactions in the real
estate market.
Accordingly, many people are forced to pass up the current good purchase opportunities and head for the
rental market as tenants. After a while, when the family has achieved economic stability and is able to buy a
home, the prices of residential premises have already significantly increased, i.e. the purchasing power has
reduced, meaning that the earnings will buy less apartment square meters than today.
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Employed Unemployed
Unemployment falling.In 2011 Q2, unemployment declined mainly for sea-sonal reasons. However, unemployment was lower in this Q2 than a year ago. The number of employed peo-ple was 603,000 and that of unemployed people was 92,000 in 2011 Q2
Number of employed people (left axis, 1,000) and unemployed people (right axis, 1,000)
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Comments
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Average salary Salary change
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Volume Change
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Acquiring Construction
Wages on a steady rise. Following a decline that began in 2009 and lasted for five quarters, the average wages have been rising for the fifth quarter in a row. Average wages in Estonia in 2011 Q2 were 857 euros, which symbolizes an annual growth of 4.2%. Yet the rise in the consumer price index exceeding the increase in wages shows that the real wages are falling.
More construction work done again. The amount of construction work in money has been increasing for the second consecutive quarter. The in-creased amount of construction work is in part due to the higher construction prices that continue to rise. In 2011 Q2, construction work totaling 567 million euros was done in Estonia, that is, over 17% more than a year ago.
Fixed asset investments have increased substan-tially.In 2011 Q2, Estonian enterprises contributed 172 mil-lion euros, or 91% more than a year ago, in the con-struction and reconstruction of buildings and facilities. 30 million euros were spent on the acquisition of build-ings and facilities, which makes 10% more than a year ago.
Volume of construction works (left axis, million EUR) and change, Compared to the same period last year (right axis, %)
Company investments into construction and reconstruction of buildings and facilities and into construction of buildings and facilities, million EUR
Average salary (left axis, EUR) and salary change, compared to the same period last year (right axis, %)
5
Comments
0%
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8%
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12%
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2011
EEK EUR Euribor
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Home loans Home loans
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No of loans Balance
Mortgage interest rate remained the same. The average mortgage interest rate in both 2011 Q2 and Q3 was 3.4%. The average Euribor in both months was 1.7%. Accordingly, the average risk margin of loans was also on the same level. The latter should also in part indicate the risks of Estonia’s real estate market.
Mortgage balance declining. Mortgage balance, or the amount of mortgages being repaid, is falling for the eighth quarter in a row at a very stable rate of 2% per quarter. At the end of 2011 Q3, Estonia’s mortgage balance was 5.9 billion euros. This means that banks are consistently giving out fewer new mortgages than they will get back from the amortiza-tion of the loans already granted.
Stronger growth in mortgage turnover. After many years, mortgage turnover achieved a stron-ger and considerable growth of 27%. We have not seen a growth rate that high for four and a half years. In 2011 Q3, new mortgages totaling 144 million euros were issued, which is the second best result in the last three years.Number of loan payers falling. The number of people burdened with a mortgage is very slightly decreasing. In 2011 Q3, a total of 157,491 mortgages had been is-sued, which is just 0.3% less than a year ago, while the balance of an average loan being repaid was 37,495 eu-ros, or 1.4% less than a year ago.
Interest rates of home loans and Euribor, %
Remaining balance of home loans and private person loans, million EUR
Turnover of home loans and private person loans, million EUR
6
Comments
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Remaining balance Turnover
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Balance of loan / GDP GDP Growth
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Number Space
Balance of commercial loans continues to fall. The balance of commercial loans continues to fall for the tenth consecutive quarter. As the loan periods in the commercial loan sector are shorter than in the mortgage sector, the falls are greater also. In 2011 Q3, the balance of loans issued to companies was 6.2 billion euros, which is 9% less than a year ago. However, new loans totaling 547 million euros were issued to compa-nies or 19% more than a year ago.
Loan burden of private persons 50% of gross do-mestic product. The decline in the mortgage balance has led to a situ-ation where the ratio between the loan balance and gross domestic product (GDP) is decreasing, that is, the loan burden of private persons is diminishing. The last time the loan burden of private persons was 50% of the GDP was in 2008 Q4, following which it rose to a record-breaking 56% for 2010 Q1.
Number of completed residential premises in-creasing. The new apartment building projects started last year are being completed one after another. In 2011 Q3, 470 residential premises got a permit for use, i.e. were completed. Compared to last year, this figure has in-creased by 44%. The number of residential premises to be completed in the next year is increasing. The current high construction prices and amounts of con-struction decreasing accordingly will probably cause the number of completed residential premises to fall in a year.
Remaining balance (left axis) and turnover (right axis) of loans given to business associations, million EUR
Share of private person loans in gross domestic product (left axis), and economic growth (right axis), %
Number (left axis) and space (right axis) of residential rooms with usage permit, 1,000 m2)
7
Comments
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Number Value
Fewer business premises completed. Unlike the residential premises market with increas-ingly more premises being completed, trends on the non-residential premises market are reversed. In 2011 Q3 a total of 163 non-residential premises were com-pleted, which is 7% less than a year ago.
Number and value of real estate transactions in-creased. In 2011 Q3, 11,231 real estate transactions were made all over Estonia, which is 6% more than last year. The value of real estate transactions was 484 million euros. The last time the number of real estate transactions was on the same level was in 2008 Q4.
Number (left axis) and space (right axis) of non-residential buildings with usage permit, 1,000 m2)
Number (left axis) and value (right axis) of real estate transactions, million EUR)
Already for the second consecutive quarter, Estonia’s macroeconomic indicators show that the worst part of the economic and real estate crisis is over. The majority of figures are positive compared not only to the last period but also to the last year.
Factors critical to the future of Estonia’s real estate market are located not in Estonia but in South Eu-rope. Let us hope that the problems there will find a positive solution one day and that we are not crawl-ing out of a crisis only to be hit by a new and graver one.
Tõnu ToomparkAdaur Grupp OÜwww.adaur.ee
Sources of data presented in the comment: Land Board, Statistical Office, Bank of Estonia
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9
Tallinn
Average offer price, EUR/m2 (left axis) and number of offers (right axis) in the KV.EE portal
Number (left axis) and average price, EUR/m2 (right axis) of apartment ownership transactions
Total value (left axis) and average value (right axis) of apartment owner-ship transactions, million EUR
Total value (left axis) and number of transactions (right axis) of land with-out buildings, million EUR
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Total value (left axis) and number of transactions (right axis) of land with-out buildings, million EUR
Total value, million EUR (left axis) and number of transactions (right axis) of land with buildings
Value, million EUR (left axis) and number (right axis) of real estate transac-tions
11
Kesklinna distric
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12
Kristiine distric
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Total value, million EUR (left axis) and number of transactions (right axis) of land with buildings
Value, million EUR (left axis) and number (right axis) of real estate transac-tions
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14
Lasnamäe distric
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15
Mustamäe distric
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Number (left axis) and average price, EUR/m2 (right axis) of apartment ownership transactions
Total value (left axis) and average value (right axis) of apartment owner-ship transactions, million EUR
Total value, million EUR (left axis) and number of transactions (right axis) of land with buildings
Value, million EUR (left axis) and number (right axis) of real estate transac-tions
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16
Nõmme distric
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29
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2009
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2011
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34
Võru
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2005
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2009
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2011
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2005
2006
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2011
Average offer price, EUR/m2 (left axis) and number of offers (right axis) in the KV.EE portal
Number (left axis) and average price, EUR/m2 (right axis) of apartment ownership transactions
Total value (left axis) and average value (right axis) of apartment owner-ship transactions, million EUR
Total value, million EUR (left axis) and number of transactions (right axis) of land with buildings
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8
10
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2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Total value (left axis) and number of transactions (right axis) of land with-out buildings, million EUR
The sources of the data used in this market overview are Estonian National Bank, Estonian Statistical Office, Land Board, KV.EE.
This overview has been prepared as a co-operation of the KV.EE real estate portal and Adaur Grupp OÜ. The preparers of the overview have made their best effort to ensure high quality of the information presented in the overview. We consider the information sources used in preparing this overview to be trustworthy, but this does not exclude a possibility of error. Thus, the preparers of this overview will not accept any responsibility for any direct or indirect damages resulting from using the informa-tion presented in this overview.
Real estate portal KV.EE has been active since year 1999. Today, more than 300 real estate companies and ca. 1,500 brokers have joined the portal. Currently there are more than 45,000 ads from brokers and owners registered in the portal. The portal is maintained by the company Diginet OÜ which belongs to the Moonfish Media Group together with the auction portal Osta.ee and three Lithuanian portals.
Adaur Grupp OÜ was established in year 2002. The company is active in real estate market monitoring, preparing prognoses, overviews, analyses, training and real estate consultations.
KV.EE+372 671 8103
[email protected]://www.kv.ee
Adaur Grupp OÜ+372 525 [email protected]
http://www.adaur.eecallto://toompark