1/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Invited Lecture, Royal Aeronautical Society, Canberra, August 14, 2001

A8−312

Regional Air Power Developmentand RAAF Force Structure Options

Carlo Kopp, BE(Hons), MSc, PhD, PEngDefence Analyst & Consulting Engineer, Email: Carlo.Kopp@aus.net

c© 2001, Carlo Kopp

2/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Regional Proliferation

3/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Su-30MKI & Su-30MKK Flanker

Sukhoi Su−30K/MK/MKI IAF 24SQN

Sukhoi Su−30MKK PLA−AF

(C) 1997, Carlo Kopp

SB 007

AWK

4/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

NIIP N-011M Phased Array

• NIIP’s phased array has a 1 metre diameter and was designed for

the Su-35 and Indian Su-30MKI (NIIP Photo).

5/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Vympel R-73 Archer & R-77 Adder

Vympel R−77M RVV−AE−PD (AA−12 Adder)

Vympel R−73/R−73M/R−74 (AA−11 Archer)

Vympel R−77 RVV−AE (AA−12 Adder)

(c) 2000, Carlo Kopp

6/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Tu-22M-3 Backfire C

Kh−31R (AS−17) Anti−Radiation Missile (TBD)

3M−54E1 Alfa Anti−Ship Cruise Missile (TBD)

3M−54E Alfa Mach 2.9 Anti−Ship Cruise Missile (TBD)

Kh−22/Kh−22M Burya (AS−4) Anti−Ship Cruise Missile (1 x C/L, 2 x Pylon)

3M−14E Alfa Land Attack Cruise Missile (TBD)

Kh−22/Kh−22M Burya (AS−4) Land Attack Cruise Missile (1 x C/L, 2 x Pylon)

Tupolev Tu−22M−3 Backfire C Strategic Bomber

(c) 2000, Carlo Kopp.NAVY

7/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Tupolev Tu-142M Bear F Upgrades

ASM Loadout Growth Options

2 x Kh−22M (AS−4 Kitchen)2 x KSR−5 (AS−6 Kingfish)

2 x Kh−41 (SS−N−22 Sunburn)4 x Kh−35 (AS−20)4 x 3M−54E (SS−N−27 Alfa)4 x 3M−54E1 (SS−N−27 Alfa)

2 x 3K−55 (SS−N−26 Yakhont)

External:

2 x Kh−22M (AS−4 Kitchen)2 x KSR−5 (AS−6 Kingfish)

External:

6 x 3K−55 (SS−N−26 Yakhont)6 x Kh−41 (SS−N−22 Sunburn)10 x Kh−35 (AS−20)10 x 3M−54E (SS−N−27 Alfa)10 x 3M−54E1 (SS−N−27 Alfa)

Bear H−16 Pylon Configuration Bear G Pylon Configuration

6 x Kh−35 (AS−20)4−6 x 3M−54E (SS−N−27 Alfa)6 x 3M−54E1 (SS−N−27 Alfa)

Internal:

Bomb Bay

LauncherMKU−5−6

4−6 x ASM

Tu−142M Bear F

8/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Russian Cruise Missiles

(c) 2000, Carlo Kopp.

3M−14E Alfa Land Attack Cruise Missile (~160 NMI Range Subsonic)

3M−54E1 Alfa Anti−Ship Cruise Missile (~160 NMI Range Subsonic)

Kh−22/Kh−22M Burya (AS−4) Anti−Ship Cruise Missile (220−270 NMI Range Mach 3)

Kh−22/Kh−22M Burya (AS−4) Land Attack Cruise Missile (220−270 NMI Range Mach 3)

Kh−22/Kh−22M carried by Tu−22M−2/Tu−22M−3 Backfire B/C, Tu−95K−22 Bear G

BGM−109C/D Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (~600 NMI Range Subsonic)

3M−54/3M−14 0.533 Tube Launched From Kilo SSK (or FFG/DDG VLS)

(c) 2000, Carlo Kopp.

3M−54E Alfa Mach 2.9 Anti−Ship Cruise Missile (~120 NMI Range Subsonic Cruise)

Air Launched Version for Su−30MK, Su−32FN, Tu−142M (TBD)

9/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Beriev A-50/A-50E/A-50I AWACS

10/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

The Project 1143 Aircraft Carrier

11/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Regional Power Projection Radii

Tu−22M3

Combat Radius 2 x AARSu−27SK/30MKK FlankerSu−30MKI Flanker

Combat Radius

Su−30MKI FlankerCombat Radius 2 x AAR

Andaman Islands

IslandsCocos

IslandChristmas

of MalaccaStraits

StraitsSunda

Combat Radius − No AAR

0

20S

20S

0

Learmonth

Curtin

DarwinTindal

HalimSurabaya

Iswahyudi

Palembang

Pekanbaru

Singapore

Butterworth

Kuala Lumpur

100 120

120100

Regional Striking Radii (FOB Andaman Islands, Hainan Dao, Java)

Tu−142M Bear F

Tu−22M3 BackfireKh−22M ASM

Combat Radius − Hainan−Dao FOB

Combat Radius − Port Blair FOB

Combat Radius − Iswahjudi/Halim FOB

Su−27SK/30MKK Flanker

(Hainan−Dao)

12/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Vulnerability of Pilbara/Timor Sea

Lloyd

18°

16°

14°

12°

20°

22°

118° 120° 122°

22°

20°

18°

16°

114° 116°

14°

126° 128°

OCEAN

INDIAN

NORTH

WEST

SHELF

Roti

Sumba

BROOME

DAMPIERKARRATHA

PORT HEDLAND

Gwydion

BrewsterScott Reef

Brecknock

BlinaWest Terrace

CossackWanaea

Sawu

Lambert/Hermes

Zone ofCooperation

Cornea

LaminariaBuffalo

Petrel

Tern

Cartier Islands (N.T.)Territory of Ashmore and

Timor

200 NMI

300 NMI

400 NMI

EXMOUTH

PLATEAU

NORTH WEST CAPE

North Rankin WestNorth RankinGoodwyn

WandooStag

CampbellHarrietTanami

Barrow Island

SinbadRosetteAlkimos

East SparBARROW ISLAND

South PepperNorth HeraldChervil

SaladinCowle

Skate

CrestYammaderryRoller

Tubridgi

GriffinChinookScindian

Macedon

Gorgon

Scarborough

WYNDHAM

NEWMAN

RAAF LEARMONTH

DERBYBoundarySundown

RAAF CURTIN

500 NMI

200 NMI RANGE CRUISE MISSILE LAUNCH FOOTPRINT300 NMI RANGE CRUISE MISSILE LAUNCH FOOTPRINT

AWH8

RAAF FIGHTER OPERATING RADIUS3M−54E/3M−14E (SUB) LAUNCH FOOTPRINT

NORTH WEST SHELF AND TIMOR SEA AIR DEFENCE ENVIRONMENT200 km

GAS DISCOVERIES

OIL DISCOVERIES

TahbilkMontaraPuffin Talbot

SkuaChallisJabiru

OliverTenacious

MapleSwan

Krill

JahalElang/Kakatua

Kelp

ChuditchHingkipBayu−Undan

Greater Sunrise

BluffLaminaria

BuffaloBuller

Cornea

SparkleTern

Petrel

Evans Shoal

Barnett

13/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Force Structure Responses

for the ADF

14/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Defence 2000 White Paper - OCA/DCA

8.39 ‘... Australia must have the capability to protect itself from air

attack, and control our approaches to ensure that we can operate

effectively against any hostile forces approaching Australia.’

8.42 ‘This is critical for covering our extended maritime approaches, in-

cluding offshore territories such as the Christmas and Cocos (Keel-

ing) Islands, and for providing air support to surface ship deploy-

ments including amphibious task forces and land forces deployed in

our immediate neighbourhood.’

15/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Defence 2000 White Paper - Strike

8.47 ‘... five new generation AAR aircraft, which would have the capac-

ity to refuel not only our F/A-18 aircraft but also our F-111 and

AEW&C aircraft over a wide area of operations.’ ‘These aircraft

will also provide a substantial air cargo capability, ...’

8.71 ‘... that we have the capability to contribute to the defence of Aus-

tralia by attacking military targets within a wide radius of Australia,

against credible levels of air defences ...’ ‘...our capability would be

focussed on an ability to attack those militarily significant targets

that might be used to mount or support an attack on Australia.’

‘... have the capacity to mount sustained strike campaigns against

a significant number of such targets.’

16/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Offensive/Defensive Counter Air

AERIAL REFUELLING

SUPERIOR PILOTS

COUNTER−AIRAIRFIELD TARGETING & STRIKE

SUPERIOR ELECTRONIC COMBAT

ACHIEVING AND MAINTAINING AIR SUPERIORITY

SUPERIOR FIGHTERSSUPERIOR RADARSUPERIOR MISSILES

LONG RANGE SURVEILLANCE (JORN)

SUPERIOR TACTICS

SUPERIOR DOCTRINE

AIRBORNE EARLY WARNING & CONTROL

17/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Maritime, Strategic & Battlefield Strike

SUPERIOR PILOTS

STRATEGIC RECONNAISSANCE & TARGETING

DEFENSIVE JAMMERS

FIGHTER ESCORT, AEW&C

PRECISION MUNITIONS

SUPERIOR DOCTRINE

SUPERIOR TACTICS

CAPABILITIES FOR DETERRENCE, STRATEGIC AND MARITIME STRIKE

LONG RANGE SURVEILLANCE (JORN)

STRIKE FIGHTERS

DEFENCE SUPPRESSION

SUPERIOR ELECTRONIC COMBAT

AERIAL REFUELLING

18/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

AIR 5402 - What are the Issues?

1. Tanker extended range/long duration over-water operations?

2. Tanker aircrew numbers?

3. Tanker offload performance for a small fleet?

4. Tanker dash speed?

5. Tanker airlift capacity?

6. Airfield fuel replenishment capacity?

7. Airfield runway strength?

8. Tanker fleet funding models?

9. Available flight tested conversions 2001-2005?

19/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Heavy Tankers vs Medium Tankers

With tanker numbers capped to 5 aircraft, White Paper capability goals

will be difficult to meet with medium sized tankers.

20/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Electronic Combat - Support Jammers

• 32 EF-111A aircraft mothballed at AMARC since 1998.

• ALQ-99E Tactical Jamming System with up to 10 jammer modules.

• Retains supersonic performance and combat radius of F-111C/G.

• TF30-P-109 engines, DFCS and AMP avionics common to F-111C/G.

• ALQ-99 ICAP-III includes jamming, ELS and HARM capability.

21/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

AIR 6000 Issues

22/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Su-27/30 Flanker vs F/A-18A Hornet

Size Comparison− Su−30MK, F/A−18A and F−111C

23/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Su-27/30 Flanker vs F/A-18A Hornet

Thrust/Weight ApertureRadarCombat

(Clean in Reheat)

Comparison of Su−27/30 vs F/A−18A

Combat Radius(Clean)

24/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Su-27/30 Flanker vs F/A-18A Hornet

AAM Cued by Radar AAM Cued by HMD

20021999AAM Cued by HMS

Comparison of Close−in Combat Capabilities Pre and Post HUG / AIR 5400

180 Degrees Off Boresight

>25 NMI RangeASRAAM

AIM−132

R−73M20 NMI Range

16.2 NMI RangeR−73

> 45 DegreesOff Boresight

> 60 DegreesOff Boresight

6.5 NMI Range

Sidewinder

AIM−9M

25 Degrees Off Boresight

25/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Su-27/30 Flanker vs F/A-18A Hornet

N−011 RadarPlanar Antenna

N−011M RadarPhased Array

APG−65 Radar

Planar Antenna Planar AntennaAPG−73 Radar

AA−12 Adder

R−77Active Radar Semi−Active Radar

AIM−7MSparrow

~24 NMI Range

Active Radar

AIM−120B

AMRAAM>30 NMI Range

R−77M

Active Radar

Ramjet Adder

~48.6 NMI Range

1999 2005

~86.5 NMI Range

2003−2005

Comparison of Beyond Visual Range Combat Capabilities Pre and Post HUG / AIR 5400

26/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Regional Proliferation vs AIR 6000

• The clear priority in A6K should be the replacement of the F/A-18A

as its small size makes it ill suited to long range combat.

• Conversely, the F-111’s 34,000 lb internal fuel capacity makes life

extension attractive, against replacement with a smaller fighter.

• Combat radius performance and agility in long range combat con-

figuration should be a high priority.

• Radar aperture size and missile load in BVR combat and bomber

cruise/missile intercept roles should be a high priority.

• The growth potential of the Su-27/30 BVR suite and S-300/400

family SAMs makes stealth capability a high priority.

• Robust supersonic cruise is a force multiplier for a small fighter force.

27/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

The F/A-18A Replacement?

In terms of lethality, productivity, size, growth potential and deterrent

credibility, the F-22A has an unassailable lead over all other A6K alterna-

tives. At a flyaway cost≈ 50% higher than older technology alternatives,

the F-22 is not a ‘one-for-one’ replacement, despite claims otherwise.

28/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Implementation Strategies for AIR 6000

1. Write a new White Paper and pretend that 500 regional Su-27/30s

do not matter!

2. Single type F/A-18A + F-111 replacement with F-22, accept a

smaller force size against current force structure.

3. Two type F/A-18A + F-111 replacement with F-22 + ‘cheaper

fighter’, retain force size similar to current force structure.

4. Extend the life of the F-111 to 2040 and replace the F/A-18A with

a smaller number of F-22s.

29/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Extending the F-111 to 20401. Apply structural fixes as per DSTO Sole Operator Program findings.

2. Replace honeycomb skins with CFC as per DSTO Sole Operator

Program findings.

3. 2002-2004 replace analogue cockpit with AMLCD glass cockpit.

4. 2003-2006 replace analogue radar with digital solid state phased

array.

5. 2015-2020 replace the TF30-P-109 with the F119-PW-100 series

supercruising engine common to the F-22 (exploit A6K funding).

6. Adopt F-22 style internal weapon carriage to reduce RCS and exploit

supercruising transit speeds, apply RCS reduction techniques.

7. 2015-2020 perform block upgrade of core avionics with F-22/JSF

generation integrated avionic suite (exploit A6K funding).

30/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Example F-111C/G Glass Cockpit

TGT

WPT6

WPT6

XXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

MIDS A/G A/A MAP FUSENG

IFI

S

E

IFI

MIDS A/G A/A MAP FUSENG

XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX

� �� �

100

200

250.5

103

25

−50

1−10

40

60

80

20

COMMANDKNOTSMACHG

1.0 .45 130

15

12

49400

6

3

2992

400

500

600

700

800

1

0

1

50

49

48

51

52

N 090COURSEMILES

−3−33

N

N

��

E

30

33

W24

21S

000

FF 0900FF 0900

T/S000

FQTY000

UTL000

PRI000

R OILL OIL000000

R PRL PR000RPM 85% RPM 85%

TIT 018TIT 018

EPR 001EPR 001

NOZ 001NOZ 001

F18

UNK

Track/Target/Fuel/Time JTIDS TracksDigital Moving Map

FUSION DISPLAY (14−15"):TJS Derived Threat Footprint

SA11

SA10

SA2UNK

SU−46 HUD OPTICS/MECHANICALS AND PILOT DCC ADAPTED FROM EXISTING F−111D HARDWARE

SU30

AMLCD MULTIFUNCTION PANEL

F/RF−111C/G Digital Glass Cockpit

HUD

ADI/HSI

SENSORS/

SENSOR

ARS

ECM

AMLCD MULTIFUNCTION PANEL

AUP MFD/

RADARDISPLAY

ATTACK

AMLCD

STDBY INSTTFR/RADAR

TACAN

CSPI

FUSION

WEPSAUX

TACKPAVE

CONTROLS

PANEL

Cockpit Layout

CARA

SCAISENS

AUPMFD

AMLCD

AMLCDGR

WFS

RHAWSCONTROLS

STATUSPANEL

STATUS

PRIMARYCMP

SU−46 HUD OPTICS/MECHANICALS (F−111D)

DESIGNATION

(c) 2001, Carlo Kopp

CONTROLCURSOR

(F−111D)

N

321

W

10

BO

MB

/NA

V/S

TA

TU

S

31/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Example Low RCS AESA Installation

A8−271

A8−271

A8−271

Internal Mounting Frame (Not Drawn)

Faceted Antenna Shroud (8 Faces)

(Not Drawn)

FEB ARS Rack − Available for Redundant Channel~ 740 x 480 Truncated ESA

RAM Tiles

(c) 2001, Carlo Kopp

Level 45 deg Toss 30 deg Dive

(ESA tilt angle optimised for A/A uplook into turn as a primary requirement)

APG−80 Installation − F−111C/G AUP

APG−80 LRU Rack

APG−80 ESA

APG−80 Field of Regard (−20 deg Tilt)

32/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

F119-PW-100 Supercruise Engine

Forward Engine Bay Lower Clearance Line

Forward Tailboom Support Crossover Point

Upper Rim

F119−PW−100 Fan/Core

6.0−8.0 inch offset

Upper Clearance Line of F−111 Forward Engine BayClearance

Tailpipe Extension Plug

For

war

d E

ngin

e B

ay B

ulkh

ead

Accessory Package

0.0−0.3 inch centreline offset

1.3 inch

TF

30 R

im O

.D. =

37.

4 in

chT

F30

Rim

I.D

. = 3

6.6

inch

Inlet Adaptor Pitch/Yaw Balanced Beam Nozzle

(c) 2001, Carlo Kopp(c) 2001, United Technologies P&W

1. F-111 swing wing and internal bomb bay allows exploitation of F-22

engine technology, possibly doubling transit speed and optempo.

2. F119 more durable and cheaper to operate than current F100/F110

thus reducing long term ownership cost.

3. Reduce inlet integration costs by leveraging NASA/USAF IPCS F-

111E FADEC flight test results.

33/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

F119-PW-100 Supercruise Engine

Comparison of F/RF−111C/G TF30−PW−108/9 vs F119−PW−10XNominal Thrust Ratings Only − Assumes Inlet Massflow Allows Full F119 Thrust Rating

(Static SL)Military Thrust

RATINGF−111F A/B

(Static SL)(c) 2001, Carlo Kopp

Afterburning ThrustSustained Speed (Dry)(Internal Weapons)

34/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Supercruising ‘F-111S’1. F119 engine, internal weapons, phased array radar, glass cockpit and

RCS reduction => ‘Ersatz F-22’ for lower threat environments.

2. With AMRAAM and supercruise provides a credible capability for

long range bomber/cruise missile intercept, in addition to existing

strike roles.

3. Incremental block upgrades avoid ‘spikes’ in funding profile - bone-

yard F-111s are cheaper than any new fighter.

4. High return on existing RAAF investments in infrastructure and per-

sonnel.

5. Domestic upgrade program keeps funding in Australia.

6. Risks confined mostly to aspects of engine integration program and

weapon clearances.

35/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Force Structure Alternatives

F/A−18 REPLACEMENT BY 18 x F−22, LIFE EXTENDED 54 x F−111S ‘LIGHT’ FORCE STRUCTURE MODELALL FIGHTERS WITH SUPERCRUISING POWERPLANTS, F−111S WITH AESA/AMRAAM

F/A−18 REPLACEMENT BY 36 x F−22, LIFE EXTENDED 54 x F−111S ‘BALANCED’ FORCE STRUCTURE MODEL

COUNTER AIR ASSETSSTRIKE ASSETS

ALL FIGHTERS WITH SUPERCRUISING POWERPLANTS, F−111S WITH AESA/AMRAAM (c) 2001, Carlo Kopp

COUNTER AIR ASSETSSTRIKE ASSETS

36/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

Conclusions1. Implementing the White Paper capability goals will present serious

funding challenges over the new two decades.

2. Aerial refuelling, electronic combat and fighter capabilities should be

implemented robustly, in addition to Wedgetail and Global Hawk.

3. Funding pressures indicate that ‘lateral’ rather than ‘conventional’

solutions may be the only affordable answers.

4. Single type A6K solutions may not provide a good balance in capa-

bility vs numbers.

5. Life extension of the F-111, leveraging F-22/JSF generation tech-

nology, should be seriously explored as an A6K option.

6. Orthodox strategies in system acquisition may become an unafford-

able luxury.

37/37

�

�

�

�

�

�

End Presentation