rei-indonesia property industry prosfect 2009
TRANSCRIPT
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Prospek Prospek Industri Properti Indonesia Industri Properti Indonesia
tahun 2009tahun 2009
Persatuan Perusahaan RealEstat Indonesia (REI)Dewan Pengurus Pusat (DPP)
F. TEGUH SATRIA
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PROPERTIPROPERTI
� Perumahan
� Perkantoran� Pusat Belanja� Resort / Hotel
Subsidi
Non Subsidi
RSH
Rusunami
Landed Houses
Vertical Houses/High Rise
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SEGMENTASI PASAR SEGMENTASI PASAR PERUMAHANPERUMAHAN
� ATAS
� MENENGAH
� BAWAH
2000jt
1000jt
500jt
150jt
55jt
ATAS
ATAS
MENENGAH
BAWAH
RUSUNAMI SUBSIDI & RS NON SUBSIDI
RSH SUBSIDI
RENTAL
SOCIAL
FORMALSECTOR
INFORMALSECTOR
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PREDIKSI 2009 PREDIKSI 2009 –– SEKTOR SEKTOR PERUMAHANPERUMAHAN
� INDIKATOR EKONOMI◦ Subsidi: Tahun 2008 = 800 M
Tahun 2009 = 2.500 M◦ ASUMSI APBN tahun 2009
- Growth Tahun 2009 = 6,2 %
- Inflasi Tahun 2009 = 6,5 %- BI Rate Tahun 2009 = 8,5 %
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10
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Agst Sep Okt Nov Des
Tahun 2008
%
9
8
7
BI Rate tahun 2008
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Low Cost Low Cost ApartmentDevelopmentsDevelopments
7
� Government of Indonesia’s Vision: New 1000 towers of low cost apartments in the next 5 years
◦ 60% in the Greater Jakarta� High rise apartment towers
◦ 40% outside the Greater Jakarta
� Walk up apartments (Low Rise/Medium Rise)
� More than 500 hectare of land bank required for these new developments
◦ Government/state land� PP 06/2006: state land selling price must be higher than NJOP
� PP 38/2008: state land selling price could be lower than NJOP as long as for low cost apartment developments
◦ Land consolidation/urban renewals
◦ Private land
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Development ProgressDevelopment Progress
8
PROGRESS OF LOW COST APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM31 September 2008
I. GREATER JAKARTA
NO. LOCATION DEVELOPER Area ( ha ) TOWER UNIT
1 Pulo Gebang PT. Primaland Internusa Development 0,4 1 390
2 Cawang PT. CHD 0,5 1 731
3 Penggilingan Cakung PT. Nusuno Karya 1,1 3 444
4 Cibubur Jaktim PT. Rajawali Core Indonesia 0,46 4 471
5 Cipayung PT. Bina kualita Teknik 6,8 6 2400
6 Jl. Arjuna, Kebun Jeruk Jakbar PT. Anggana Development 0,5 1 684
7 Kebagusan, Jakarta Selatan PT. Perdana Gapura Prima, Tbk 5 5 2000
8Perumahan Modernland, Tanggerang
PT. Modernland Realty, Tbk 1,7 3 1200
9 Jl. Pegangsaan II Kelapa Gading PT. Tiara Metropolitan Jaya 4 17 6380
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Development ProgressDevelopment Progress
9
NO. LOCATION DEVELOPER Area ( ha ) TOWER UNIT
10 Ciledug PT. Binakarya Jaya Abadi 0,74 1 1000
11 Pulo Gebang PT. Bakrieland Development 3 6 2300
12 Daan Mogot km.14 Jakbar PT. Inten Cipta Sakti 4,7 3 3200
13 Pulo jahe, Jatinegara, Jaktim PT. Cakra Sarana Persada 3,5 6 3070
14 Megacity PT. Mahkota Kemayoran Realty 22 68 24000
15 Pancoran Residence, Jaksel PT. Graha Reyhan Triputra 6 7 5400
16 Jababeka PT. Graha Buana Cikarang 10 20 3000
17 Apartemen Bintaro hijau PT. Bintaro Hijau Lestari 2 3 2000
18 Gading icon PT. Mahardika 3,3 6 3000
19 Pesanggrahan PT. Esta Sarana Lestari 1,7 8 1500
20 Kelapa Gading PT. Mahardika Propertindo 3 8 3200
21 Menara Latumeten PT. Anggana Margahayuland 1,1 2 1400
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Development ProgressDevelopment Progress
NO. LOCATION DEVELOPER Area ( ha ) TOWER UNIT
22 Cengkareng PT. Reka Rumanda Agung 3,7 10 3946
23 Menara Pekayon PT. Kasama Ganda 2,4 6 2400
24 Kalibata Residence PT. Pradani Sukses Abadi 12,7 45 16100
25 PT. Satwika Permai Indah 2 4 576
26 Ciledug PT. Sari Indah Lestari 1,2 3 1200
27 Depok PT. Mahardika Propertindo 1 3 990
28 Bintaro PT. Bahama Development 1,8 3 1550
29 PT. Arsidinamika Cipta 1,4 2 864
30 PT. Bangun Megah Pratama 2 3 2990
TOTAL 109,7 258 98386
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Development ProgressDevelopment Progress
I. OTHER CITIES
NO. LOCATION DEVELOPER Area ( ha ) TOWER UNIT
1 Batam PT. Dimas Pratama Indah 14 36 5000
2 Bandung 23 5000
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� Hak pakai 25 tahun � 70 tahun� Hunian Baru� Batasan Harga Minimal ( USD 100,000 )� Batasan Jumlah per Kawasan @ tower
(max.49%)◦ POTENSI :�10.000 unit/tahun @ USD 250,000 / unit
- USD 2,500 million/tahun�Expenses/year� TAX� Penyerapan tenaga kerja� Dll… 12
KEPEMILIKAN HUNIAN UNTUK KEPEMILIKAN HUNIAN UNTUK ORANG ASINGORANG ASING
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� LEGISLATIF- 200.000 Caleg @ Rp. 200 jt/caleg = 40 T- PARTAI
� PILPRES
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PEMILU 2009PEMILU 2009
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Jakarta CBD Office MarketJakarta CBD Office Market
� Construction of new office buildings has been active since 2005, spurred by tenant expansions.
� Average occupancy increased from 79% in 2004 to 88% as of end April 2008.� Average base rental rates in USD increased by 4 % per year during that period.� The market is cautious due to high level of future supply of 530,000 sqm, to be
completed by end 2009.
JAKARTA CBD OFFICE MARKET CUMULATIVE SUPPLY, DEMAND, OCCUPANCY
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 08Q1 2008P 2009P
70%
72%
74%
77%
79%
81%
83%
86%
88%
90%
Cumulative Supply Cumulative Demand Occupancy Rate
Cumulative Supply, Demand (in sq.m) Occupancy Rate
Procon Indah/Savills Research, April 2008
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� Strong consumer spending post economic crisis 1997-2001 has enticed developers to build new retail centers.
� Massive new strata title retail space completed since 2003 has push down the average occupancy from 86 % in 2003 to 78% in 2007.
� Prime shopping malls with strong retail concept and tenancy mix,however, managed to maintain beyond 90% occupancy levels
Jakarta Retail MarketJakarta Retail Market
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 08Q1 2008P 2009P
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
Cumulativ e Supply Cumulativ e Demand Occupancy Rate
Cumulativ e Supply and Demand (in sq.m) Occupancy Rate
Procon Indah/Savills Research, April 2008
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� New supply continues to enter the market. Total cumulative existing supply was 60,313 units at the end of March 2008, of which 95% have been sold
� Middle price segment dominated the market.
� Despite large amount of future supply, developers continue to launch new projects
� Average occupancy level decreased, but more Indonesian currently lives in strata title apartments.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009P
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sales Rate
Cumulative Supply Cumulative Demand Sales Rate
Cumulative Supply & Demand (in units)
Jakarta Strata Title Apartment Jakarta Strata Title Apartment MarketMarket
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� Landed residential developments remain active, evidenced by the increase of developed area as a result of new housing clusters launched.
� Tangerang/West Jakarta continued to enjoy the highest monthly take up due to better accessibility and good supporting infrastructure.
� Land price, sales rate and occupancy rate remained stable over the past 6 months.
Greater Jakarta Residential Estate Greater Jakarta Residential Estate MarketMarket
JABOTABEK RESIDENTIAL MARKET PLANNED AND DEVELOPED AREA
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 08Q1
hectares
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
Planned Area Developed Area
Propotion of Developed Area (%) Sales Rate
Procon Indah/Savills Research, April 2008
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0
50
100
150
200
250
Hon
g K
ong
Tok
yo
Sin
gapo
re
Seo
ul
HC
MC
Sha
ngha
i
Bei
jing
Tai
pei
Han
oi
Gua
ngzh
ou
She
nzhe
n
Jaka
rta
Kua
laLu
mpu
r
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
US$ per sq.m. net per mth.
Prime Offices Rents, 1 Jan 2008
Regional Property Market Regional Property Market OverviewOverview� Rents of office and retail space in Jakarta are considered low compared
to those located in other Asian major cities.
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900T
okyo
Hon
g K
ong
Sin
gapo
re
Tai
pei
Gua
ngzh
ou
Sha
ngha
i
Seo
ul
Bei
jing
HC
MC
Kua
laLu
mpu
r
Jaka
rta
Han
oi
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
US$ per sq.m. net per mth. Prime Retail Mall Rents, 1 Jan 2008
Regional Property Market Regional Property Market OverviewOverview
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New Trends: New Trends: Retail Center Developments Retail Center Developments Outside JavaOutside Java
� Growing middle income segment of Indonesian population
� Good potential for new retail centers in the cities outside Javawith 500,000 – 1,000,000 population
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Per
cen
tag
e
A (Above Rp2 mil/month)
B (Rp1.5-2 mil/month)
C1 (Rp1.0-1.5 mil/month)
C2 (Rp 0.7-1.5 mil/month)
D (Rp0.5-0.7 mil/month)
E (Below Rp 0.5 mil/month)
Socio-Economic Survey * in Indonesia, 2001-2006
*AC Nielsen Socio-Economic Survey is based on monthly household expenditure, not actual income.
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KESIMPULANKESIMPULAN
� Memperhatikan indikator yang ada maka diprediksi industri properti Indonesia tahun 2009 akan tumbuh cukup signifikan terutama sektor perumahan, lebih khusus sub sektor perumahan bersubsidi.
� Sektor komersial, khususnya pusat belanja akan tumbuh di kota-kota sedang (500.000 – 1.000.000) baik di Jawa maupun di luar Jawa.
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KESIMPULANKESIMPULAN
� Bila kepemilikan hunian bagi orang asing bisa disetujui mendapat kemudahan, maka bisa diharapkan beberapa kota akan mendapat dampak positif yang cukup signifikan, misalnya Jakarta, Bali dan Batam.
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TERIMA KASIHTERIMA KASIH
23
ersatuan Perusahaan RealEstat Indonesia (REI)
ewan Pengurus Pusat (DPP)
F. TEGUH SATRIA