report to wwrp/ssc november 2015 brian golding · report to wwrp/ssc november 2015 brian golding co...

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HIWeatherReport to WWRP/SSC

November 2015

Brian Goldingco‐chair

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Outline

• Review of HIWeather objectives• Highlights of the past year• Links• Plans for next year• Other

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Review of HIWeather aim & objectivesDespite recent advances in forecasting & emergency preparedness, weather‐

related disasters continue to kill, displace populations & damage property / infrastructure, while less severe weather events place an increasing strain on society, especially in countries with fragile economies and infrastructure

The potential of advanced weather‐related hazard forecasting has been demonstrated. There is a huge opportunity to protect lives and benefit communities if we can realise this potential across the world

Project aim:• Promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic

increase in resilience to high impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications. The importance of warning services as a means of raising resilience to weather‐related hazards was highlighted in the Sendai Framework. Success requires improvement to both production and communication of forecasts.

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HIWeather

Vulner‐ability & Risk

Multi‐scale

Forecasts

Eval‐uation

Commu‐nication

Predict‐ability & Processes

Impact Forecasting Verification

Knowledge TransferField campaigns & demonstrations

UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies

Benefits in Operational Forecasting

Data Management & Archiving

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Review of HIWeather aim & objectives

1. Improve knowledge and understanding of the processes that generate weather‐related hazards so as to assess their predictability. As well as leading to more accurate warnings, this objective underpins WCRP activity in extreme event projection and attribution in a changing climate.

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2. Develop multi‐scale coupled forecasting systems of weather‐related hazards, including new observation sources, advances in data assimilation and modeling and ensemble prediction, and definition of new products.Km‐scale regional NWP & coupled medium range global NWP continue to develop strongly, but coupling at km‐scale remains a niche activity.

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3. Improve knowledge, understanding and modeling of the exposure and vulnerability of society, businesses, environment and infrastructure to hazards; obtain data & develop tools & models to assess the resulting risk.Human impacts were a focus of the AMS2015 annual meeting, reflecting the growing recognition that warnings should be based on expected impact rather than on meteorological thresholds.

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4. Improve knowledge and understanding of the processes and variables that influence different stakeholders’ decisions using high impact weather forecasts and warnings, and of the characteristics of information communication that lead to effective responses.This was also a focus at AMS2015, recognising that a warning is only of value if acted on. More research studies are being published but recognition of the need for long term research still needs promotion.

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5. Develop improved methods of verifying forecasts, hazard warnings and people’s responses so as to permit evaluation of each stage in the complete production chain.Funders increasingly demand performance metrics but evaluation remains challenging and under‐resourced.

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6. HIWeather Scope is defined by a set of hazards: urban flood, wildfire, extreme local wind, disruptive winter weather, urban heat wave, urban air pollution.Some aspects of the research will need to focus on one particular hazard in order to make progress.

Urban Flood Wildfire

Extreme Local Wind

Disruptive Winter Weather

Urban Heat Wave & Air Pollution

© www.thamai.net

© www.energydigital.com

© Tommy Hindley/ Professional Sport

© Adrian Pearman/Caters

[email protected]

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Key HIWeather highlights of the past year

The highlight of the year was agreement ofthe Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reductionwhich identified early warning systems as key contributors to building disaster resilience

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• Administration– The Implementation Plan was accepted at the 2014 WWRP SSC and

the ten year project formally started in January 2015– Co‐chairs from the physical and social sciences were appointed,

together with four of the task team leaders– The communication theme is temporarily being led by the social

science co‐chair– Four quarterly Steering Group teleconferences were held– A US organizing committee for HIWeather, PPP & S2S was created

and meetings were held towards forming a UK HIWeather initiative

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Current/planned governance structure

HIWeather Steering GroupPhysical/Social Science co-chairsBrian Golding & David Johnston

(UK) (New Zealand)Task team leaders

P&P task teamGeorge Craig

(Germany)

MSCHF task teamJenny Sun (USA)

HIVR task teamBrian Mills (Canada)

C task teamtbd

E task teamBeth Ebert (Australia)

Stakeholders Advisory

Group

WWRP SSC and Secretariat through Paolo Ruti

ICO

WMO Commission for the Atmospheric Sciences

National / Regional Committees

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• Publications– Four HIWeather quarterly newletters were circulated to a large

mailing list of attendees at HIWeather workshops and other interested scientists

– A web site was created under the WMO/WWRP portal, providing access to the Implementation Plan, a recent HIWeather powerpointand the latest Newsletter

– Linked‐in posts have advertised newsletters– A HIWeather overview was published in the WWOSC book– High impact weather requirements featured in a Royal Society

review of environmental observing

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• Conferences and MeetingsHIWeather was presented at:– WMO high impact weather conference in Ningbo, China, January 2015.

Weather Ready Nation symposium & Town Hall meeting at AMS annual meeting in Phoenix, USA, January 2015

– IUGG high impact weather & climate symposium in Prague, July 2015– WCRP Grand Challenge on Extreme Events workshop in Oslo, Norway,

October 2015– In the UK, presentations to Met Office, Royal Met. Soc, NHP & DRG– In China, presentations to CAMS & NMC

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Key HIWeather highlights of the past year• Scientific Progress

– The NAWDEX international science plan was finalized and a web site has been set up.

– The German W2W (Waves to Weather) collaborative institute and WEXICOM project were launched, covering the scope of HIWeatherbetween them.

– Components of the Lake Victoria FDP (part of LVB‐HyNEWS) were proposed to the UK DfID WISER call.

– H2020 bids were supported. – Discussions were held with the Beijing Institute of Urban

Meteorology regarding their SURF project becoming a HIWeatherRDP. A proposal is being prepared.

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HIWeather links to WGs & ProjectsWWRP Working Groups: PDEF, DAOS, WGNMFR, JWGFVR & SERA: links

through cross membership with the HIWeather task teams. Good links were also established with WGTMR during the Ningbo workshop. The task teams are still spinning up their programmes, but it is anticipated that much of their work will be carried forward through the WWRP WGs.

GURME: links were established during the WWOSC conference and have been maintained through Veronique Bouchet, particularly with regard to the proposed Beijing SURF RDP.

PPP & S2S: links were established during WWOSC. Co‐chair Brian Golding is a member of the S2S Extreme Weather sub‐project committee.

WWRP FDP/RDPs: HIWeather has links to several including NAWDEX, Lake Victoria, La Plata,

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HIWeather links to International Initiatives

WCRP: a growing link. A joint session on the role of warnings in adaptation was unsuccessfully proposed to the Paris conference, “Our Common Future Under Climate Change”. Co‐chair Brian Golding contributed to a WCRP Grand Challenge on Extreme Events workshop & it is planned to build on this link.

CBS/SWFDPs: co‐chair Brian Golding has monthly meetings with Ken Mylne who is chair of the SWFDP Steering Group. The proposed Lake Victoria FDP is closely linked to the Southern & Eastern Africa SWFDPs.

IRDR: has similar aims to HIWeather but is rooted in the social sciences. HIWeather has particular synergies with the IRDR RIA (Risk Interpretation and Action) and FORIN (Forensic Investigations of Disasters) projects. Co‐chair David Johnston has recently stepped down as chair of the IRDR Science Committee, but remains closely connected. WWRP has a MoU with IRDR and co‐Chair Brian Golding held useful discussions with the IRDR CEO during the Ningbo conference.

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HIWeather plans for the next year• Kick‐off meeting, April 25‐29, 2016 Met Office, Exeter, UK

• Programme– days 1,2: HIWeather SG & WWRP WGs– days 3‐5: task teams workshop with stakeholders

• Attendance– HIWeather SG & Task Teams– WWRP WG members– Key stakeholders from WCRP, PPP, S2S, SWFDP, RDPs

• Workshop themes– understanding what makes a successful forecast: how it can be

measured & evaluated– observing, monitoring, modelling & verifying weather‐related

hazards, impacts & responses, including applications of social media– factors influencing communication, use & application of weather

information in decision making

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HIWeather task team plans for next year• Km‐scale uncertainty plan for 2017 workshop on km‐scale uncertainty, ensemble verification & ensemble hazard diagnostics

• Building trust develop forecaster guidance in use of km‐scale models• Wind hazard survey requirements & prepare review paper• Fire hazard attend Melbourne, April 2016 workshop with International Fire Management conference prepare fire weather review paper

• Very short range high impact weather forecasts organise 2016/7 workshop on km‐scale observations, nowcasting & NWP data assimilation (possibly attached to WMO Data Assimilation conference) intercomparison project on multi‐scale data assimilation.

• Observing hazards, impacts & responses survey applications of social media plan workshop

• Develop good practice in human impact modeling survey NHMS practices share practice, review survey results & plan follow‐up activities

• Develop good practice in communication collect examples of communication successes/failures share practice, review examples & plan follow‐up activities

• Develop good practice in evaluation Paper on good practice in spatial verification of ensemble forecasts in complex terrain (MESOVICT); share outcomes of JWGFVR user‐oriented verification competition

• NAWDEX field phase• Support for LVB‐HyNEWS field phase planning• Establish links with more FDP/RDPs

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Other HIWeather elements• Membership

– Appoint task team leader & members for Communications theme– Appoint Advisory Group (or share with S2S/PPP)

• Fund raising– UK DfID funding for Africa, including WISER & SHEAR funded projects that support

research in high impact weather relevant to Lake Victoria RDP– Horizon2020 Disaster Reduction call: Proposals are likely relevant to HIWeather.

We will seek to engage with the successful consortium– The co‐chairs will work with Paolo Ruti on Trust Fund income and support for ICO– HIWeather profile will be raised through suitable publication

• Meeting plan– HIWeather kick‐off workshop 25‐29 April, Exeter– WSN16: 25‐29 July, Hong Kong – co‐chair is on programme committee– Workshop on km‐scale model initialization, led by DAOS, possibly with 2016/7

WMO DA conference– UNISDR post‐Sendai science conference, Geneva, 27‐29 January – co‐chairs to

attend – AMS Annual Meeting, New Orleans, 10‐14 January – representation required– Fire Weather workshop, Melbourne, 11‐15 April – representation required– Royal Meteorological Society conference on High Impact Weather & Climate,

Manchester, 6‐8 July – co‐chair is on organising committee– Quarterly SG meetings by teleconference

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HIWeather

Vulner‐ability & Risk

Multi‐scale

Forecasts

Eval‐uation

Commu‐nication

Predict‐ability & Processes

Impact Forecasting Verification

Knowledge TransferField campaigns & demonstrations

UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies

Benefits in Operational Forecasting

Data Management & Archiving

report to wwrp/ssc november 2015 brian golding · report to wwrp/ssc november 2015 brian golding co...

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