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WeatherPredict Consulting Inc.

IPCC 5th Assessment Report:

am cat ons or t e nsurance n ustry

Dail Rowe, PhD

RAA: Cat Modeling 2014February 11-13, 2014



The Plan

What is the IPCC?

What is in the latest IPCC report?

2Proprietary and Confidential Information

What is not in the latest IPCC report?



What is the IPCC?

Established by the United Nations in 1988

From the “Principles Governing IPCC Work”

The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive,objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technicaland socio-economic information relevant to understanding thescientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, itspotential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.


In taking decisions, and approving, adopting and accepting reports,the Panel, its Working Groups and any Task Forces shall use allbest endeavours to reach consensus .

Volunteer scientists and experts

– For the latest Physical Science Basis report

– 259 authors from 39 countries

– 54677 contributed comments

Summary for Policy Makers subject to line-by-line approval by allparticipating governments



What is the latest IPCC report? Physical Science Basis

– Released September 27, 2013

– 2216 pages – 33 page Summary for Policymakers

– Observations, theory and simulations


–

– Why?

Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

– Expected March 25, 2014

Mitigation of Climate Change

– Expected April 7, 2014

Synthesis

– Expected October 27, 2014



What is in the latest IPCC report?

Observation Forecast

Milky Way 2


Over 3 million cores34, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000 operations per second



IPCC Observations: It’s hotter

Globally Averaged Temperature


IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. The Physical Science Basis.



IPCC Observations: Ice Sheets are Melting





IPCC Observations: Sea Level is Rising

Global average sealevel change


Change in globalaverage upper oceanheat content




IPCC Observations: More Carbon in the Air

Atmospheric CO2

More carbon than atany time in the past800,000 years


Rate of increase ishigher than at any timein the past 22,000years




IPCC Forecasts for 2100 0.3 – 4.8 degrees Celsius warmer

– Poles warm more than tropics

– More heat waves Drier dry areas and wetter wet areas

– More extreme precipitationevents


– More droughts

Ice free Arctic summers

0.26 – 0.82 meter sea level rise

Forecast uncertainty

– Natural variability: next fewdecades

– Human activity: many decades

IPCC, 2013: Summary for

Policymakers. The PhysicalScience Basis.



IPCC: Silent on catastrophic weather


Associated Press

NASA

NASA

Penn State

not?



Tropical Cyclones

Knutson et al. (2010 – Nature Geoscience)

– Higher intensity; Lower frequency

– Decades before clear statistically

Some recent studies challenge this view

– Emanuel (2013 – Proceedings of the


– Higher frequency and intensity

– Camargo (2013 – Journal of Climate)

– No change in frequency

– Tory et al. (2013 – Journal of Climate) – Confirms Knutson view

– Holland and Bruyère (2013 – ClimateDynamics

– Hurricanes more intense today



Arctic Ice and Atmospheric Blocking

“Blocking” caused Sandy to turnleft

Francis and Vavrus (2012 – Geophysical Research Letters)


– Blocking has become morefrequent due to the changingArctic

Barnes (2013 – GeophysicalResearch Letters)

– Strongly disagrees



IPCC: Silent on the next few decades

Over years to decades, natural climate variability is the most important driverof changes in catastrophic weather

– Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation

– El Nino and the Southern Oscillation

–


– Pacific Decadal Oscillation

– …

– …



Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation and Hurricanes

WW II

Number of Cat 3+ Hurricanes

R2 -• 0.7 (1900-2012)• 0.8 (1950-2012)


Both the AMO Index and Number of Major Hurricanes

have been smoothed using a 5-year running-mean.

Atlantic SST



Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Tornados

Weather Radar

EF 2+ Tornado Counts


-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

1 9 2 2

1 9 2 4

1 9 2 6

1 9 2 8

1 9 3 0

1 9 3 2

1 9 3 4

1 9 3 6

1 9 3 8

1 9 4 0

1 9 4 2

1 9 4 4

1 9 4 6

1 9 4 8

1 9 5 0

1 9 5 2

1 9 5 4

1 9 5 6

1 9 5 8

1 9 6 0

1 9 6 2

1 9 6 4

1 9 6 6

1 9 6 8

1 9 7 0

1 9 7 2

1 9 7 4

1 9 7 6

1 9 7 8

1 9 8 0

1 9 8 2

1 9 8 4

1 9 8 6

1 9 8 8

1 9 9 0

1 9 9 2

1 9 9 4

1 9 9 6

1 9 9 8

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 2

2 0 0 4

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 8

2 0 1 0

PDO

Smooth PDO

Warm

Epoch

Cold

Epoch

Warm

Epoch

Cold



Implications for Risk Management?

The climate is changing

Limited scientific guidance on

implications for naturalcatastrophes

Natural variability modulatesnatural catastrophe risk




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