Prepared by Prishtina Institute for Political StudiesPrishtina, September 2016

Citizens' general knowledge

and perception on SAA Research Report

Citizens' general knowledge and perception on SAA

Research Report

Prepared by Prishtina Institute for Political Studies

Prishtina, September 2016

Executive Summary

This research report provides an analytical overview of findings of public opinion polling conducted by the Prishtina Institute for Political Studies measuring citizens' perceptions and knowledge on theStabilisationand Association Agreement. This research has been conducted as part of the “Promoting the Stabi l isat ion Associat ion Agreement and launching a publicdiscourse for Kosovo's European Future'' project currently implemented by PIPS.

The results indicate that in general people are uninformed on the content of the SAA. The general perception is that Kosovo is unprepared to implement the SAA. However the majority of the citizens believe that Kosovo should join EU.

Methodology

Data interpretation reflects a set of political and social factors influencing citizens' opinions, covering all Kosovo's territory. The questionnaire was composed mostly of closed type questions, observing Likert's five-grade scale. However, there were four open questions as well, where the citizens had the opportunity to express their opinions on certain issued regarding SAA. PIPS staff composed of 17 field researchers conducted the sampling and interviews. Prior to conducting the interviews on the ground, the questionnaire was tested internally to check its feasibility, and the research team encountered no problems. Data collection, through interviews with the respondents selected

randomly, was done from the end of June to the beginning of July.

National sample, on the basis of which the research was designed, comprised 1,070 households, following a representative sample of the population over the age of 18 in Kosovo. The ethnic composition of the citizens was as follows: 90.9% Albanians, 4.7% Kosovar Serbs and 3.3% others (of which 1.4% Turks, 1.3% Bosniak, 0.9 % Roma, Ashkali and Egyptian, and others included Gorani, Croats and Montenegrins). The sampling frame is based on telephone area codes and as such included seven regions: Ferizaj, Gjakova, Gjilan, Mitrovica, Peja, Prishtina, and Prizren. The first phase of geographical grouping was based on the 2012 Kosovo Census Report, while the second phase included grouping samples according to the municipal areas of village/city stratified sample, according to the number of households. In the last phase the random sampling method was implemented using closest “birthday method”. Random sampling ensures that each resident in Kosovo has equal opportunity to be selected for interview. With the sample used for this study, the survey results reflect trends in attitudes and perceptions of the entire adult population of Kosovo in general. The margin of error is 3 percent, with a confidence interval of 95 percent.

Data processing and analysis was made using STATA software.

Background

The Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) between the Republic of Kosovo and the European Union has entered into force on 1 April 2016, and it is the first comprehensive agreement that has advanced Kosovo's European integration process to a framework of contractual obligations. As such, the SAA requires from Kosovo to implement comprehensive reforms in allpolicy areas and to approximate its legislation with the EU acquis, prioritizing areas of internalmarket, trade and rule of law. The SAA is composed of 10 titles, 7 annexes and 5 protocols. Despite its importance in terms of the content and changes it seeks to bring aboutto Kosovo, there's little understanding by average citizens at to what the SAA entails. Through this research PIPS has measuredcitizens' general knowledge on the SAA.

Perceptions on EU

Generally, people in Kosovo are pro-European. When asked whether Kosovo should become a member of the European Union, the majority of citizens polled, 93%, said that Kosovo should do so; only 4.2% of them said it shouldn't join the EU; while 3% didn't have an opinion (see table 1).

Table 1. Kosovo's membership to the European Union

There's a general perception that the EU presence in Kosovo, has helped the latter.More than one third of citizens said that the European Union presence in Kosovo has helped it towards its democratic development to a great extent; 50.1% of them said that EU presence has helped somewhat, and only 7.3% said that it hasn't helped at all (see table 2).

Should Kosovo become an EU member state?

Total

I don't know

Yes

No

31 3.02 %

952 92.79%

43 4.19%

1,026 100

Table 2. EU's help in Kosovo's democratic development

To what extent do you believe EU has helped democratic development in Kosovo?

Has helped

I don't know

Hasn't helped at all

Somewhat

30 2.92%

75 7.30%

520 50.63%

402 39.14%

Total 1,027 100

On the other hand, when asked whether SAA has strengthened Kosovo's sovereignty, only 27.5% believe that it has strengthened Kosovo's sovereignty to a great extent; 43.8% to some extent; 21.8 % little and 7% believe that SAA hasn't strengthened Kosovo's sovereignty at all (see table 3).

Table 3. SAA and strengthening of the Kosovo's sovereignty

To what extent has SAA strengthened Kosovo sovereignty?

To a great extent

Hasn't strengthened it at all

Little

To some extent

71 6.91%

224 21.81%

450 43.82%

282 27.46%

Total 1,027 100%

General knowledge on SAA

Only a small percentage (3%) claim that they know about the SAA fully. Almost 10% claim that they don't have any information on SAA. The majority of citizens 69.4% claimed that they know 10-50% about the SAA, while only 20.8% claimed that they have 60-100% knowledge on the SAA (see figure 1).

Figure 1.Citizen's self-declared general knowledge on the SAA

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 %

5 %

10 %

15 %

Knowledge on SAA

Despite the fact that people claim that they know about the SAA, the mean of knowledge index on it is .53, which is less than 50% on the scale of knowledge (measured by 7 knowledge based questions; see Knowledge index) and it's relatively low. The results indicate that in general, people are unaware what the SAA entails. When asked whether it guarantees Kosovo's membership to the EU, more than 78% of the citizens replied differently than it doesn't guarantee or doesn't guaranty at all (see table 4); these two answers were coded as the correct answers, because SAA doesn't contain any provision which guarantees the next phase. Any other answer (from the provided options) different than It doesn't guarantee or doesn't guaranty at all were coded as wrong answers.

Table 4. SAA and Kosovo's membership to EU

To what extent does the implementation of the SAA guarantees Kosovo's membership to EU?

Neutral

I don't know

To a great extent

To some extent

7.21%

8.76%

30.57%

31.94%

It doesn't guarantee 16.55%

Total

It doesn't guarantee at all 4.97%

27.46%

On the second knowledge question, namely on what will happen after the implementation of SAA, more than half of the citizens said that Kosovo will become a candidate country for EU membership, while more than 40% stated that they believe that Kosovo will become an EU member state (see Figure 2); this means that 40% of the people believe that Kosovo will become a EU member state in the next 10 years.

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

What will happen after the implementation of SAA

Figure 2. Aftermath of SAA implementationWrong Answer Right Answer

Majority of the citizens believe that the enactment of the SAA is merit of the EU; that European Union pushed Kosovo towards this agreement. More than 20% believe that it was the merit of the government of Kosovo; followed by those who believe that it was the right time (see figure 3).

I don’ knowKosovo Governmant and EUKosovo Gov and CitizensEu and It was the right timeKosovo GovernmentKosovo Gov, EU and it was the right timeEuEu and citizensCitizens

In your opinion, whose merit was the enactment of the SAA

10

0

20

30

Figure 3. Merits on the enact of the SAA

Table 5, indicates that there's a positive significant correlation between education and knowledge on SAA: the higher the level of education the higher the knowledge. People higher levels of education tend to know more about the content of the SAA, compared to people who have lower level of education or no education.There's no correlation between knowledge on SAA and income.

Education

Knowledge index

Coef. Std. Err. t [95% Conf. Interval]P>t

1.03 0.13 8.13 0 0.78 1.28Table 5. Correlation between education and knowledge index

To measure their knowledge on political aspects of the SAA, citizens were asked whether they believe that the dialogue with Serbia is anobligation deriving fromthe SAA. More than one third claimed that dialogue with Serbia is not important in the implementation of the SAA, 9.3% said that they do not know, while 28% said that it is an important aspect of the SAA implementation.

Knowledge on political aspects of the SAA:

To measure this variable, an average of the two knowledge based dummy variables was created.More than 40% of the citizens polled have no knowledge on economic aspects of the SAA; 23.4% have some, and32% have extensive knowledge on economic aspects of this agreement.

Knowledge on economic aspects of the SAA:

There's a great percentage (66%) of people who are dissatisfied with the current economic direction that Kosovo is heading towards (see table 6).

General Perceptions and Satisfaction

Table 6.Satisfaction with economic direction

Freq.

Nor satisfied, neither unsatisfied

I don't know

Very Satisfied

Satisfied

12 1.17%

15 1.46%

109 10.62%

218 21.25%

Dissatisfied 270 26.32%

Percent

Very dissatisfied 402 39.18%

Total 1,026 100

To measure their knowledge on political aspects of the SAA, citizens were asked whether they believe that the dialogue with Serbia is anobligation deriving fromthe SAA. More than one third claimed that dialogue with Serbia is not important in the implementation of the SAA, 9.3% said that they do not know, while 28% said that it is an important aspect of the SAA implementation.

Table7 .Kosovo's economic preparedness to implement SAA

Freq.

Neither prepared, nor unprepared

I don't know

Very prepared

Prepared

58 5.65%

11 1.07%

177 17.25%

350 34.11%

Unprepared 260 25.34%

Percent

Very unprepared 170 16.57%

Total 1,026 100

Likewise, the dissatisfaction with the political situation is quite high - over 60% (see table 8).

Table 8.Satisfaction with the government

Freq.

Nor satisfied, neither unsatisfied

I don't know

Very Satisfied

Satisfied

16 1.56%

13 1.27%

79 7.7%

254 24.76%

Dissatisfied 214 20.86%

Percent

Very dissatisfied 450 43.86%

Total 1,026 100

Furthermore, the percentage of people that believe that Kosovo has the necessary capacities to implement the SAA inquired reforms is not higher than 12%. In this case too, the correlation analyses indicate that those who are dissatisfied with the political situation believe that Kosovo is unprepared politically to implement SAA (see table 9). This correlation is positive and significant. The correlation coefficient is .26 (p=.00).

Freq.

I don't know

Strongly agree

Agree

71 6.93%

57 5.56%

118 11.51%

Percent

Table 9.Kosovo has capacities to implement the inquired reforms through SAA

Neither agree, nor disagree 254 24.76%

Disagree 245 23.9%

Strongly disagree 100 9.76%

Total 1,025 100

Despite the high dissatisfaction with the current political and economic situation; and the general opinion that Kosovo is unprepared to implement the SAA, more than half of the citizens believe that the presence of EU in Kosovo will help Kosovo to implement SAA. Also, more than one third of the citizens are satisfied with the work of the EU office in Kosovo (see table 10), while the other one third is neither satisfied nor dissatisfied.

Table 10.Satisfaction with the work of the EU office in Kosovo

To what extent are you satisfied with the work of the EU office in Kosovo?

Dissatisfied

I don't know

Satisfied

Nor satisfied neither dissatisfied

36 3.51%

377 36.74%

357 34.8%

256 24.95%

Total 1,026 100%

As an indicator of the perception on the SAA, the respondents were asked whether the SAA brings Kosovo political and economic benefits.

More than one third (37%) of the citizens polled believe that Kosovo

will benefit from the SAA economically; whereas 19% of them believe that it will not benefit economically; the remaining 39% were neutral, and 5% said they didn't know (see figure 4).

When it comes to political benefits, 21% of citizens believe that the SAA brings Kosovo political benefits while 33% believe that there are no political benefits; the remaining 36 were neutral, and 10% claimed they didn't know (see figure 5).

When asked about challenges that hinder Kosovo from implementing the SAA, most respondents mentioned corruption; rule of law; unemployment; and the current political situation in the country.

Figure 4. Perception on economic benefits that derive from SAA

Perception on economic

benefits that drive from SAA

Will benefit economically 37.7%

Will not benefit economically 18.81%

Neutral 38.5%

Figure 5. Perception on political benefits that derive from SAA

Perception on political

benefits that derive from SAA

Will benefit politically 32.9%

Will not benefit politically 20.9%

Neutral 36.2%

The main economic benefits that identified by the citizen's responses are the following: economic development, higher employment opportunities, tax-free trade, FDI, and freedom of movement. On one hand: suppression of public enterprises by private ones; tax-free trade; inhibiting local enterprises to export their products; greater import rates; higher prices on goods; were the major economic harms identified by the citizens. On the other hand 44% of the citizens believe that Kosovo's goods can compete with those of European Union countries; while 22.6% believe that Kosovo good are not able to compete with those of EU countries.

Calculation of Indexes

Knowledge index is a composite average based on the seven knowledge based questions which were coded as binary variables (right/wrong). The knowledge index is composed of seven knowledge based questions: 1. does the implementation of the SAA guarantees Kosovo's membership to EU?; 2. What do you believe will happen after the implementation of the SAA?; 3. Will custom duties and tariffs repeal with the SAA coming into force?; 4. Will all quantity limitations on goods and products, repeal with the SAA coming into force?; 5. What kind of an agreement is SAA?; 6. Which institution ratified the SAA?; and 7. What was the role of the EU member states on ratification of the SAA?

Conclusions

Although there is a great percentage of people who think that Kosovo should become member of the European Union, there's a great dissatisfaction with the current economic and political situation in Kosovo which leads people to believe that Kosovo government is unprepared to implement the SAA and undertake the necessary reforms. Although to some extent people know and share the perception that there are benefits that accompany the SAA, the major concerns are economic - that the local economy and the local enterprises will be harmed.

Prepared by Prishtina Institute for Political StudiesPrishtina, September 2016

Citizens' general knowledge

and perception on SAA Research Report

Prepared by Prishtina Institute for Political StudiesPrishtina, September 2016

Citizens' general knowledge

and perception on SAA Research Report