sae okubo aline sekiguchi satoko takahara. background general timeline of the conflict un...
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R2P Case Study: SyriaSae Okubo
Aline SekiguchiSatoko Takahara
Background
General timeline of the conflict
UN Resolutions and actions taken by the
international community
R2P Criteria
Syria Now
Overview of the Presentation
President Bashar al-Assad
Son of Hafez al-Assad
Took over presidency
in June of 2000
Belongs to the
minority Alawite sect
of the population
en.wikipedia.org
Division within the Syrian population:
◦ 65% Sunni Arabs
◦ 12% Alawis(Alawite)
◦ 10% Christians
◦ 9% Kurds
Issue of having a secular government
Complicated nature of the war
http://eastchapelhillobserver.com
March: The protests begin May: Government’s military crackdown by the
army ➝ Shabiha July: Free Syrian Army (FSA) formed by this
point
◦ Government focuses on protests in Hama
August: Western leaders explicitly call for Assad to step down
November: the Arab League suspends Syria’s membership
General Timeline from Spring 2011
April: UN brokers ceasefire, sends monitors
June: UN suspends its mission in Syria
August: UN accuses the Syrian government of
war crimes
September: Rebels accused of crimes against
humanity
December: The US also formally recognizes
Syria’s opposition National Coalition as the
legitimate representative of the Syrian people
General Timeline (2012)
January: 65 bodies found in
Aleppo, shot execution style
April: Syria accused of using
chemical weapons
May: EU lifts the arms
embargo
June: US officials announce
that Assad used chemical
weapons
General Timeline (2013)
www.un.org
August: Syrian government accused of using chemical weapons◦ UN inspectors go to Damascus
◦ Obama considers a limited military strike against
Syria September
◦ Russia proposes for Syria to give up its chemical
arms
◦ UN finds ‘convincing evidence’ of chemical attack
General Timeline (2013 cont.)
The international community has had a
difficult time deciding what actions to take
because of the complexity of the situation
➝ Al-Qaeda linked groups aligning with
the opposition etc.
Possibility of ethnic cleansing after the war
Escalating sectarian violence
Recap
UN Resolutions and actions taken by the International Community
1st phase: Criticism and Economic sanction
2011. 4~U.S. & EU → asset freeze & prohibition on entry further pressure by EU ← & Turkey & LAS BAN on oil embargo & trading halts
Resulted in afflicting local people rather than exhausting the regime
1st draft resolution condemning Syria was rejected by the veto of Russia and China
International Response
2nd phase: League of Arab States (LAS) Response
2011. 11 decided to suspend Syria and impose sanctions
2011. 12 Syria agreed to LAS initiative to allow observers
2012. 1 LAS suspended its mission due to worsening
violence in Syria
International Response
3rd phase: UN Security Council Resolutions
2012. 2 draft resolution urged Syria to accept non-binding peace plan
→fell short of formal resolution 2012. 4 #2042, #2043 →Deployment of 30 military observers to Syria →Deployment of UNSMIS (300 civil observers)
International Response
2012. 6 Geneva 1 laid out a peace plan for Syria together with LAS and UN members →called for a Syrian-led political transition
2012. 7 #2059 → extended UNSMIS for a final period of 30 days
2012. 8 →UN General assembly demanded Assad resign
Obama warned use of chemical weapons is the ‘redline’
International Response
2012. 12 Syria's opposition National Coalition was recognized as the legitimate representative of Syrian people
2013. 8 UN weapons inspectors concluded the use of chemical weapons in August but did not allocate the responsibility of the attack 2013. 9 #2118 →Required scheduled destruction of Syria’s
chemical weapons
International Response
R2P Criteria March 2011 to September 2013
There was no real intervention.
Is it a real Responsibility to Protect situation?
Irwin Cotler (Canadian Deputy and Human Rights supporter) :
“if mass atrocities in Syria are not a case for R2P, there is no R2P”
A few things to consider
The international community (United Nations) and Regional organizations (Arab League) are taking care of it.
More chance for the intention to be humanitarian.
The international community has not violated any resolutions SO FAR.
Right Authority 5/5
Intervention in Syria is clearly a necessity.
Crimes against humanity. Ethnic cleansing.Violence against civilians.
Perfect violation of Human Rights from both sides.
Just Cause 5/5
Hypothetical Criteria
Various international actors involved.
Reaction should have been quicker.
Public against it.
Right Intention 2.5/5
One side : International Community.
Other side: a country which has hidden chemical weapons. Difficult to determine its military capacity.
If an intervention is decided Not enough means?
Proportional Means 2.5/5
Influence of past interventions (Iraq).
Not enough means to be able to intervene efficiently.
Lack of motivation.
Reasonable Prospects 1/5
Still trying to solve the problem without the use of force.
Inefficient sanctions.
Intervention necessary?
Last Resort 2.5/5
Public not feeling concerned.
Nations not willing to help.
Influence of former failures.
Russia and China’s continued vetoes.
Actual problems
Syria Now
120,000 deaths since the beginning of the war (according to the Syria Observatory for Human Rights). More than a third of them are civilians.
9 million refugees.
The United Nation Security Council has started to focus on the humanitarian crisis.
Syria Now
November 25th, 2013: UN Secretary General announced a Peace Conference to solve Syria’s situation on January 22nd, 2014.
Postponed by Russia to July 2014.
The Secretary General expects the participants to come to Geneva to end the conflict via Political Solutions.
Geneva 2
Bashar al-Assad will not participate.
Sees this conference only as a fight against terrorism.
Opposition’s Position
Expects this conference to lead to the demission of Bashar al-Assad.
Syrian Government’s Opinion
Iran, an ally of the Syrian government, may participate too.
Saudi Arabia, an ally of the opposition, may participate too.
Salim Idriss (General of the Free Syrian Army ) announced that he will not stop the fighting for this conference.
His main concern is to provide equipment for his soldiers.
Other participants
Destruction of 1000 tons of chemical weapons in the sea announced on September 30th, 2013
The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) confirmed that the Syrian government submitted the initial formal declaration of its chemical weapons program on October 24th .
Permitted the establishment of a destruction plan of the weapons and the installations of production and assembly.
Chemical Weapons
The UN’s Human Rights chief announced that Syrian War crimes implicating Bashar al-Assad were found.
According to an article published in early December 2013, it was the first time that the Syrian dictator was directly accused of committing these crimes.
Bashar al-Assad implicated in war crimes
http://icrtopblog.org/2011/10/07/un-security-council-fails-to-uphold-its-responsibility-to-protect-in-syria/
http://www.responsibilitytoprotect.org/index.php/crises/crisis-in-syria
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14703995
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24628442
http://www.lemonde.fr/proche-orient/article/2013/11/26/la-conference-geneve-2-se-fera-sans-bachar-al-assad_3520605_3218.html
Sources
http://www.lemonde.fr/proche-orient/article/2013/06/05/syrie-la-conference-de-geneve-2-officiellement-repoussee_3424678_3218.html
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/09/03/jonathan-kay-r2p-is-no-basis-for-bombing-syria/
http://nsnbc.me/2013/10/06/new-push-syria-intervention-responsibility-protect/
http://dspace.cigilibrary.org/jspui/handle/123456789/32656
http://syriahr.com/en/index.php?option=com_news&Itemid=2&nt=1
Sources
http://www.franceinfo.fr/monde/syrie-al-qaida-expulse-les-rebelles-d-une-ville-strategique-1148929-2013-09-20
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14703995
http://www.news.com.au/world/simple-points-to-help-you-understand-the-syria-conflict/story-fndir2ev-1226705155146
http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/08/31/3598729/understanding-the-roots-of-the.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/16/world/middleeast/syria.html?_r=0
Sources
http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/briefing_papers_and_reports/stolen_futures
http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/world/timeline-unrest-in-syria/207/
Sources
Thank you for listening!