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Scenarios for the future energy system in Denmark

Ashtrans Europe 2015

2015-09-07

Anders Bavnhøj Hansen, Chief consultant MSc

Energinet.dk

E-mail: [email protected]

2015-09-07 Scenarios for the future energy system

Denmark situated in a windpower area

Electricity transmission

Gas transmission


Energy strategy in Denmark

Political targets:

2020: 50% of traditional electricity consumption covered by windpower

(decision supported by 95% of parliament)

2035: All electricity and heat based on renewable energy

(Obs. the previous governmental position)

2050: The total* energy supply based on renewable energy

(target supported by 95% of parliament)

*Total energy system incl. transport, industry etc.


A need for a flexible energy system - to combine energy services with ressources

Wind

Photovoltaic

Wave..

Solar heat

Geothermal

Electric

(light, it,

process..)

Transport

Industry

proces energy

Heating

Cooling

Power

Liquid

fuels

District

heat

Biomass

Bio residues

Waste

Energy ressources (RE)

RE-gas

Energy system Energy services

1.Competitive and stable prices on energy services

2.Security of supply

1.Renewable ressources

2.Sustainable use

1. Handling fluctuating RE-power 2. Stabilizing variable ressource prices 3. Delivering RE fuels for transport 4. Integrating of new energy-technology


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Energy services – towards 2025, 2035 and 2050


Heating Proces Light, it cooling etc

Light transport

Heavy transport

Railway Aviation Sea

Energ

y s

erv

ice (

PJ/

year)

• Boilers • District heating • Proces heat pumps • Surplus heat from fuel production

Proces heat temperatures


RE-electricity ressources DK (potential and socio-economic cost of energy 2030 excl. integration)


Gode råd: Find inspiration til præsentationer på InSite under Værktøjer – Kommunikation Du kan finde billeder og grafiske elementer i Energinet.dk’s billeddatabase (Cumulus) på InSite under Værktøjer – Kommunikation

Ressources and cost for fuels (2030 if all biomass is allocated to fuels)


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

RE

gas p

rce (

DK

K/

GJ)

excl.

cle

an

ing

an

d u

pg

rad

e

Fuel production (PJ)

Waste mun.

Energy- crops

Wood

Slurry etc.

Marg. bio etc.

Electrolysis (power 2 gas)

2013 2035 2050

Consumption of fuels (gas+liquids)

Natural gas + CO2 (2035)

Gasoil + CO2 (2035)

Straw

Today primary used for heat and CHP

A significant demand for fuels – biomass is essential for producing high amount of fuels

Fuels demand today would require more than 30 GW extra windpower if power-to-gas should deliver


Integration with heat is essential - building heating and proces heat


District heating demand (120 PJ)

Proces heating demand (60-65 PJ)

Sector Total

Low and medium

high temp proces

(PJ)

Very high temp

(PJ)

Cement 9116 5782 3329

Agriculture 7961 5840 183

Milk products 3330 2769 0

Paint and soap 3081 2778 0

Mining and quarrying 2850 2375 164

Sugar 2733 2455 0

Wood 2724 2041 93

Green houses etc. 2601 2172 0

Concrete, bricks etc. 2291 1512 472

Food/slaughterhouses 1848 1207 471

Paper 1784 1602 0

Mineral wool 1670 0 1666

Other food 1636 1235 201

Metal 1470 0 1448

Bitumen etc. 1331 1317 0

Tiles/bricks etc. 1310 375 935

Beverages 1309 1153 0

Bakery 1287 1212 0

Medicin 1258 1039 0

Glass and ceramics 1250 158 1066

Feed production 1160 1160 0

Furniture 1086 283 0

Fish industry etc. 1022 963 0

Metal products 955 402 330

Enzymes and fertilizers 671 505 59

Basic chemicals 527 442 0


Simple projection of the thermal capacity


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

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46

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20

49

20

50

MW

Forventes nyt

Biomassebaseret produktion

Konverteres til biomasse

Kulkraft

Gas

Decentrale kraftvarmeværker

Residualt

Forbrug

5 GW

Import eller

reservebehov

1,7 GW

New capacity

Biomass CHP units

Coal-units to Biomass

Coal CHP

Gas centralized CHP

Gas decentralized CHP

Import or new capacity


Fuel consumption – power and heat



RE-gas as feedstock for fuels etc.

2015-09-07 Scenarios for the future energy

system

Methan

Syntesis gas

Methanol

DME

Electrolysis

Alkal./SOEC

Synt. Gasoline/

diesel

Hydrogen

Methan

PE plast etc.

Fertilizer

RE-gas

H20

Legend:

CH4

H2

CO

Transport Industry

etc.

Power/heat Industry Transport

etc.

Biogas

Anaerob

Thermal

gasification

400-600 °C

200-300 °C

200-300 °C

>200 °C

>800 °C

>500 °C

Fertilizer (N,P,K, carbon etc.)

Fertilizer (P, K, carbon etc.)

http://www.google.dk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAMQjRw&url=http://ec.europa.eu/danmark/eu-politik/alle_emner/konkurrence/2010/100914_lego-dom_da.htm&ei=08iDVankAsT9ygOJ16q4DQ&bvm=bv.96042044,d.bGQ&psig=AFQjCNFJc1myax1SeBzURBZSCq-AqDk97A&ust=1434786387094416

http://www.google.dk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRxqFQoTCL2B-9-Dv8cCFQMYLAodYtUJ6Q&url=http://arstechnica.com/cars/2015/02/batteries-are-so-passe-toyota-unveils-its-fuel-cell-car-production-line/&ei=36TZVf2VDIOwsAHiqqfIDg&psig=AFQjCNGk1y6GHXKgY6uBnWw7P9d-JK0fLw&ust=1440413264687775

http://www.google.dk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRxqFQoTCKfS4NWEv8cCFcEVLAod2ugJ4Q&url=http://www.larousse.fr/encyclopedie/divers/tige/97300&ei=1qXZVaePDsGrsAHa0aeIDg&psig=AFQjCNF_6Z8d3yBAQdFdWvL2huIze24ybA&ust=1440413516026954

http://www.google.dk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRxqFQoTCIrVvpuFv8cCFUMFLAodmz0J2g&url=http://energinet.dk/DA/GAS/Hvad-skete-der-i-2014/Gasforsyningssituationen-i-2013-2014/Sider/Vedligehold-af-gaslageret-i-Lille-Torup.aspx&ei=aKbZVYqBHcOKsAGb-6TQDQ&psig=AFQjCNHINX6uHlmh5DHlXssVn0SZgKlCdA&ust=1440413649795920


Integration of local and national gas-system


New types of RE gasses to be integrated – essential to handle sub-nets with other gas-specification


A scenario example towards RE-based energy supply


P2G

HP Industry-

HP

EV/PHEV

HP


2014


Heat systems (DH and block heat)

Wind

Wave

Natural gas

Fossil Oil

Coal

Power-system

Thermal gasification

Anaerob digestion

Export power

El-proces Light, it

Proces-heat

Building heating

Road-transport

Railway- transport

Sea-transport

Aviation

Gas storage

HeatP.

Boiler

EV/PHEV

CE/FC

Import power

Gassystems (methan/synthesisgas/H2)

Electrolysis Heat pump and electric

boiler

Gas CHP

Ethanol

Solar

HT-HP.

Bio, waste etc.

Coal and bio CHP and boiler

Gas- cathalysis

etc.

Transit

Transit

Liquid fuels fossil/RE (Gasoline, Diesel, Ethanol etc.)

10 TWh=36 PJ


2035 - Reference with fossil free power and heat system


Wind

Natural gas

Fossil oil

Power-system

Anaerob digestion

Export power

El-proces Light,it,cool

Proces-heat

Building heating.

Road-transport

Railway-transport

Sea-transport

Aviation

Gas storage

HeatP.

Boiler

EV/PHEV

CE/FC

Import power

Gassystems (methan/synthesisgas/H2) incl. local systems

Electrolysis Central

Heat pumps Gas

CHP/boiler

Ethanol

Solar

HT-HP.

Bio, waste etc.

Bio CHP and

boiler

Gas- cathalysis

etc.

Transit

Bio-plast etc.



High temp

Transit

Liquid fuels fossil/RE (Gasoline, Diesel, Ethanol, Methanol, DME etc.)

10 TWh=36 PJ 14 mio ton CO2


Feasibility study 2035+ – reduced fossil oil demand


Heat systems (DH and block)

Wind

Natural gas

Power system


Anaerob digestion

Export power

El-proces Light, it,cool.

Proces-heat

Building heating.

Road-transport

Railway-transport

Sea-transport

Aviation

Gas storage

Varmep.

Kedel

EV/PHEV

FM/FC

Import power

Gas-systems (methan/synthesisgas/H2) incl. local systems

Electrolysis Central heat

pumps

Gas CHP and

boiler

Ethanol

Solar

HT-VP.

Gas- cathalysis etc.

Transit

Bio-plast etc.

High temp

Transit

Bio, waste etc.


Bio CHP and

boiler

10 TWh=36 PJ

6 mio ton CO2


Storage capacity and system balancing – case 2035


Gas storage (11 TWh methan-gas) Energy input to power-to-gas

Interconnectors yearly accumulated case 2035 (2,3 TWh)

El- og plugin hybrid case 2035

Indivi. heat pump

District heat+storage

2,3 TWh

Interconnectors (MW) Accumulated (GWh)

http://www.google.dk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http://www.energinet.dk/DA/ANLAEG-OG-PROJEKTER/Anlaegsprojekter-gas/Vedligeholdelse-af-gaslager/Sider/Presse.aspx&ei=lxj8VMflA4fGPYfLgKAC&bvm=bv.87611401,d.ZWU&psig=AFQjCNG19b5RFistKALHpH5L2ZZ4KBzkAw&ust=1425893897822021

http://www.google.dk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http://www.climateminds.dk/index.php?id%3D728&ei=CjH8VOPVOYKvPaX6gOgI&bvm=bv.87611401,d.ZWU&psig=AFQjCNEX3PTfnBylaC6fqlPSONepiZCxBg&ust=1425900166953498


Summing up


The vision is to make the total energy system independent of fossil fuels A high degree of electrification and much more wind- and solar will be essential. A high integration with heat- and gas-system is mandatory to get flexibility and energy efficiency. Biomass to be used for CHP and boiler is the short term solution. The long term solution is to use biomass for fuel production (thermal gasification, anearob gasification) The integration of residues (fertilizer, char etc.) from RE-fuel production is a key activity in a sustainable use of biomass



Thank you for attention

Link: www.energinet.dk/energianalyser

Gode råd: Vælg en kort og enkel overskrift. En kombination af tekst og billeder/diagrammer eller faktabokse gør præsentationen mere dynamisk. Brug de foruddefinerede Energinet.dk farver i stedet for standardfarver. Undgå for mange effekter. Du kan finde billeder og grafiske elementer i Energinet.dk’s billeddatabase (Cumulus) på InSite under Værktøjer – Kommunikation

International Scenario Framework ENTSO-E


4

E-Highway 2050

ENTSO-E TYNDP

• Internationale scenarier for Europa indgår i energisystem analyse og robusthedstest

• Energinet.dk styrker indsats med scenarier for udviklingen i Europa


0 - 0,14

0,14 - 0,33

0,33 - 0,55

0,55 - 0,81

0,81 - 1

Andel af effekt

Vindkraft i NordEuropa i uge med ”Worst case i DK”

Fra 12/12 kl. 24.00 og 7 dage frem

12. kl. 00 13. kl. 08 14. kl. 16 16. kl. 00 17. kl. 08 18. kl. 16 20. kl. 000

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Start: Onsdag d. 12. december 2007 kl. 12

GW

Sammenhængende periode på 1 uge med højeste residualforbrug

Forbrug

Landvind

Havvind

Kystnære

Sol

Elforbrug

Vind og sol

• Vigtigt med international udnyttelse af vindkraftens geografiske spredning



Production and consumption of heat – example 2035+


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

District- and block heat

Dis

tric

t/b

lock h

eat

pro

du

cti

on

(P

J) Heat

pumps

Excess heat biofuel and electrolysis

Solar/ geo etc.

Boilers

CHP

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Building heating

Bu

ild

ing

heat

(P

J)

Boiler

Heat pump

- individual

District/bloc

k heat

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Process heat

Pro

cess h

eat

(P

J)

Biomass boiler

Gas boiler

Heat pump -process

District/block

heat



Table 3. Gross Energy Consumption Adjusted for Climate variations and

Fuels for Net Electricity Exports

Unit: PJ 1990 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Total 819 839 851 813 805 782 763 761

Oil 355 376 352 312 304 289 278 280

Natural Gas 82 192 192 176 160 149 138 128

Coal 327 175 166 147 149 147 143 144

Waste, Non Renewable 8 14 17 16 18 17 17 17

Renewable Energy 48 81 123 162 174 180 186 192

Gode råd: Vælg en kort og enkel overskrift. En kombination af tekst og billeder/diagrammer eller faktabokse gør præsentationen mere dynamisk. Brug de foruddefinerede Energinet.dk farver i stedet for standardfarver. Undgå for mange effekter. Du kan finde billeder og grafiske elementer i Energinet.dk’s billeddatabase (Cumulus) på InSite under Værktøjer – Kommunikation

Analysis of 10 years wind/solar data for DK and North Europe

12. kl. 00 13. kl. 08 14. kl. 16 16. kl. 00 17. kl. 08 18. kl. 16 20. kl. 000

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Start: Onsdag d. 12. december 2007 kl. 12

GW

Sammenhængende periode på 1 uge med højeste residualforbrug

Forbrug

Landvind

Havvind

Kystnære

Sol


𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛= 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 − 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑑 − 𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑎𝑟 − (𝑤𝑎𝑣𝑒)

Maksimum average residual consumption in periods

1 week with low wind/solar and high consumption


2035 - Reference with fossil free power and heat system


Wind

Natural gas

Fossil oil

Power-system

Anaerob digestion

Export power

El-proces Light,it,cool

Proces-heat

Building heating.

Road-transport

Railway-transport

Sea-transport

Aviation

Gas storage

HeatP.

Boiler

EV/PHEV

CE/FC

Import power

Gassystems (methan/synthesisgas/H2) incl. local systems

Electrolysis Central

Heat pumps Gas

CHP/boiler

Ethanol

Solar

HT-HP.

Bio, waste etc.

Bio CHP and

boiler

Gas- cathalysis

etc.

Transit

Bio-plast etc.



High temp

Transit


10 TWh=36 PJ


Scenarios for the

future energy system

2035

Vindproduktion ud over klassisk elforbrug kan nyttiggøres via: 1. Udlandsforbindelser 2. Nyt (fleksibelt) elforbrug

Manglende vindproduktion til at dække det klassiske elforbrug kan tilvejebringes via: 1. Udlandsforbindelser 2. Indenlandsk (fleksibel) elproduktion

Vindproduktion og elforbrug i hele Danmark Tre uger i november

Nyt elforbrug (Typisk langt mere fleksibelt) Eksempelvis • Procesvarme (elektrificering af

industri) • Individuelle varmepumper • Store vamepumper (fjernvarme) • El til transport • Elektrolyse (Power2gas)

Indenlandsk (fleksibel) elproduktion

Eksempelvis • Centrale kraftvarmeværker

(gas og biomasse) • Decentrale kraftvarmeværker

(gasmotorer og CCGT)

2015-09-07

Vind

El- forbrug


Affalds-forbrændings-anlæg – eksempel på udviklingsforløb

2015-09-07

Scenarios

for the

future

energy

system

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.00020

10

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Esti

mer

et a

ffal

dsfo

rbræ

ndin

gska

pac

itet

[PJ

aff

ald

per

år]

over 30 år

20-30 år

10-20 år

5-10 år

Under 5 år


Forskning – Demonstration - Implementering


http://www.google.dk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http://www.tvsyd.dk/artikel/217530:Denne-plakat-skal-faa-dig-til-at-saenke-farten&ei=Uij8VPTHGoPaPOKkgcgO&bvm=bv.87611401,d.ZWU&psig=AFQjCNElO0K-StNfYaZxJmr_rZ5PXNKBAg&ust=1425897914553002


Energy system performance evaluated by simulation


Energy system Energy service Energy ressource

Minimised, low and stable costs

Sustainable ressources Integrated energy system Robust, flexible and efficient

Fjern- og blokvarme systemer

Vind

Sol-

Bølge

Bio, affald mv.

Naturg

Olie

Kul

El-system

Flydende brændstoffer (Benzin, Diesel, Metanol, DME etc.)

Termiskforgasnin

Anaerob

Export el

El-proceslys, it, køl

Proces-varme

Bygn opvarmn.

Vej-transport

Bane-transport

Sø-transport

Fly-transport

Gaslagre

Varmep

Kedel

EV

ICE/FC

Import

Import el

Gas-systemer (metan/syntesegas/H2)

Bio ElektrolyseDecentral varmep.

GasKraftvarme

Ethanol

Central varmep.

Gas-behandling

Electricity

Gasses

Liqued fuels

Heat

Total performance for system evaluated.

System property to ”damp” step on ressource prices (low -faktors) Price inkl. hedging = Price excl. hedging + Price hedging = Price exc. hedging + n x (Ressource price hedging– Ressource price excl. hedging)

• Building heating

• Proces-heat

• Cooling

• Light, IT etc.

• Transport

• Wind

• Solar

• Biomass

• Natural gas

• Fossil oil

• Coal

• Etc… 0,

20,

40,

60,

80,

100,

120,

140,

160,

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

$/b

arr

el

Historisk oliepris

Oil-price

Wind-variation

Electricity price

Heat price

Combination of heatpump+CHP+heat storage gives a low B-factor (from electricity to heat)

CHP HP

Stort udfaldsrum for gasproduktionen

2015-09-07 Scenarios for the future energy

system 34


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Wind Sun Wave Heat(sun, geo. and

heat pump)

Biomass andwaste (incl.

slurry)

PJ

per

ye

ar

Used today (2008)

Potential

2050 (recommendation)

Domestic renewable resources to reach 100% renewable energy by 2050

Fluctuating

power production

Gross energy consumption in

Denmark2011

Gross energy consumption 2050

Energinet.dk analysed high wind scenario

Wind scenario


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