1

() * 2016 11

20151231(AEC)6.3

GDPATM

() 1() 40%(CDS)2008

: *

2

Summary () Key words: 2015 12 31 --(ASEAN Economic Community, AEC)1 6.3 (GDP) 2.4

2025 1 (TheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations,ASEAN)1967

3

5 2015 806 15.4%1952 2015 908.4 145 3 4 ; 318.8 11.8 3 7 2016 6 3 1 1 22015 10 806 15.4%;516(18.1%)290(12.2%) 4.7%( 2.7%)( 2.3%)( 1.9%)( 1.8%)( 1.7%) 1 :;% 2015 2016 1-9

( )

( )

522,562.

7

(100)

285,343.

6

(100)

237,219.

1

(100)

48,124.4 369,302.

5

(100)

202,632.

6

(100)

166,669.

9

(100)

35,962.6

80,678.0

(15.4)

51,639.4

(18.1)

29,038.7

(12.2)

22,600.7

56,763.9

(15.4)

37,194.2

(18.4)

19,569.7

(11.7

17,624.6

372.7

(0.1)

23.9

(0.0)

348.8

(0.1)

-324.8 131.3

(0.0)

10.6

(0.0)

120.6

(0.1)

-110.0

750.9

(0.1)

683.3

(0.2)

67.6

(0.0)

615.7 548.8

(0.1)

489.2

(0.2)

59.6

(0.0)

429.6

9,073.9

(1.7)

3,106.3

(1.1)

5,967.5

(2.5)

-2,861.2 5,178.7

(1.4)

2,007.0

(1.0)

3,171.6

(1.9)

-1,164.2

17.5 3.3 14.2 -10.9 18.2 2.7 15.5 -12.7

4

(0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0)

13,930.8

(2.7)

7,197.3

(2.5)

6,733.5

(2.8)

463.9 10,264.2

(2.8)

5,739.4

(2.5)

4,524.8

(2.8)

1,214.6

276.5

(0.1)

222.8

(0.1)

53.7

(0.0)

169.2 203.8

(0.1)

155.0

(0.1)

48.8

(0.0)

106.2

9,609.0

(1.8)

7,514.2

(2.6)

2,094.8

(0.9)

5,419.4 7,629.1

(2.1)

5,977.8

(3.0)

1,651.3

(1.0)

4,326.5

24,577.3

(2.7)

17,406.5

(2.5)

7,170.8

(2.8)

10,235.7 16,935.0

(4.6)

11,803.3

(5.8)

5,131.7

(3.1

6,671.5

9,813.7

(1.9)

5,770.4

(2.0)

4,043.3

(1.7)

1,727.1 6,875.4

(1.9)

4,022.5

(2.0)

2,853.0

(1.7)

1,165.5

12,255.8

(2.7)

9,711.3

(2.5)

2,544.6

(2.8)

7,166.7 8,979.5

(2.4)

6,986.7

(3.4)

1,992.7

(1.2)

4,994.0

4,947.4

(0.9)

3,036.2

(1.1)

1,911.3

(0.8)

1,124.9 3,481.3

(0.9)

2,113.2

(1.0)

1,368.1

(0.8)

745.1

: htttp://www.trade.gov.tw.

: (.)

: htttp://www.trade.gov.tw. 1 (2015 %)

2015

5

: htttp://www.trade.gov.tw.

2 (2016 1-9 %)

(EU)

AEC (2016) 1. (Common Effective Preferential Tariff, CEPT) 2. AEC 2015 ASEAN Single Window 3.

2016

6

70% 2012ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement, ACIA 4. Roadmap for Integration of Air Travel Sector, RIATSFTAChiang Mai Initiative(2016) 2 2013 2016 2013 2015 3% 3.3% 5% 6%5%() 2 :% CPI

/GDP

/GDP

/GDP

/GDP

/GDP

/GDP

2013 2014 2015 2016

(

)

-2.1 -2.3 -0.6 0.4 -0.4 12.0 - 2.8 - - -

7.5 7.1 7.0 6.9 1.2 -7.9 -4.1 32.5 46.5 7.9 18.9

5.6 5.0 4.8 4.9 6.4 2.0 2.6 27.3 35.4 5.6 12.0 8.0 7.5 7.6 7.5 5.3 -5.9 -3.9 63.0 79.9 5.6 -

4.7 6.0 5.0 4.1 2.1 2.89 -3.2 57.4 66.0 31.7 31.7

7.7 7.6 7.3 7.1 10.8 -4.2 -3.5 34.3 12.4 1.1 13.9 7.1 6.2 5.9 6.0 1.4 2.9 -0.9 34.8 26.6 6.0 25.3

7

4.7 3.3 2.0 1.7 -0.5 19.7 -1.2 104.7 429.6 348.9 84.6

2.7 0.8 2.8 2.9 -0.9 7.8 -1.9 43.1 33.6 15.2 38.3 5.4 6.0 6.7 6.2 0.6 4.7 -5.8 58.3 41.6 7.4 14.3 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.7 4.9 -1.1 -3.9 69.1 23.3 3.9 17.1 : Global Insight, EIU

: (2013-2016 ) 2015

2015 0.6%4.8%7.3% 10.8% 3 GDP GDP GDP 4 7 2013 2015 GDP GDP GDP

8

: 1 : CPI : GDP

3 (2015 )

: 1: CPI :

GDP 4

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

10

0

10

20

30

40

2013 2014 2015 2016

9

: 1: CPI :

GDP 5

: 1: CPI :

GDP 6

012345678

2013 2014 2015 2016

1210864202468

10

2013 2014 2015 2016

10

: 1: CPI :

GDP 7 (financial inclusive)ATM ()()()() 3 ATM 43.77 114.3 ;(78.64 )(60.94 )(52.10 )(49.48 ) 1.93 ()8.94 ( 20.68 )(2.90 )

ATM 8 ATM()(per capita GDP)(PPP) ATM ()

4

2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2013 2014 2015 2016

11

3 ATM /

/

/

/

2015 78.64 20.68 1984.62 776.91 2014 10.88 5.67 216.16 42.43 2014 49.48 10.95 901.40 220.54 2014 19.92 2.90 465.57 82.68 2015 52.10 10.86 2,354.56 731.38 2015 1.93 3.32 220.95 3.37 2015 25.77 9.02 570.68 - 2015 60.94 9.48 - - 2015 114.30 12.71 1,547.33 432.07 2014 23.76 3.86 - - 43.77 8.94 1,032.6 327.05 : IMF, Financial Access Survey.

: -

12

:(GDP)(PPP)::2015

: ATM () X(GDP)(PPP):www.cia.gov

8 ATM ()(GDP) (Islamic finance) 4 CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio)

III(BASEL III)8%;11.68%

'

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000

ATM

percapitalGDP(PPP) : USD

2015ATMGDP

13

(Tier 1 Ratio)2 III(BASEL III) 6%; 9.83%(NPL Ratio)2016 8 0.29%; 4 (2015 )

CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio) (%)

(Tier 1 Ratio) (%)

(NPL Ratio) (%)

(ROA) (%)

(NIM) (%)

(%)

22.9 21.7 4.9 1.3 - 42.96 - - 1.99 1.96 - 102.6 21.16 19.0 2.49 2.26 5.39 91.95 - - 3.01 - - - 16.1 13.8 1.6 1.3 2.1 87.5 - - - - - - 15.25 - 2.09 1.16 3.26 70.71 15.8 13.6 1.0 1.0 1.7 110.36 17.12 13.92 2.69 1.18 2.65 107.44 12.95 - 2.55 0.52 - 87.96 13.0 - 4.27 0.81 2.64 73.0 : Bloomberg,

: NA:

(Return on Assets, ROA)20150.75% (Net Interest Margin, NIM)

2 :1.(

)2.(

)

14

20151.37%5.39% (Loan-to-Deposit Ratio, LTD Ratio)2016772.5%72.5% 5- (Standard & Poor)(Moody)(Fitch Ratings) 5 Standard

& Poor Moodys Fitch Ratings

- - - - B2 - BB+ Baa3 BBB- - - - A- A3 A- - - - BBB Baa2 BBB- AAA Aaa AAA BBB+ Baa1 BBB+ BB- B1 BB- BBB- Baa3 BBB- : Bloomberg.

2 GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP

15

()1 ( 1)() 140% 40%() 40% (CDS) 9 2008 2016 10 20 8 5 (CDS)10 20 112.46 121.50 151.33 96.65 185.5 133.99 2008 2015

16

17

Bloomberg 2013 10 CDS : Bloomberg 9 8 5 (CDS) () 2016 2 9 7 105 ( 72 ) 29 141

2 1 11 9 5 2 1 2016 11 8 5 2 12 20 10

18

: 1

::

10 20151231(AEC)6.3

20132016()GDPATM

() 1() 40%(CDS)2008

05

101520253035

0 5 10 15

19

(2016)1760-71 (2016)AEC 2016 1 5 (2015)? 2015 11 11 http://www.trade.gov.tw Caporale , Guglielmo Maria and Mohamad Husam Helmi (2016), Islamic Banking,

Credit and Economic Growth Some Empirical Evidence, DIW Discussion Paper 1541.

Demetriades, Panicos O., Peter L. Rousseaub (2016),The Changing Face of Financial Development, Economics Letters, 141, 87-90.

Holmstrom, Bengt and Jean Tirole (1997), Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds, and the Real Sector, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(3), 663-691.

Pongsaparn, Runchana and Olaf Unteroberdoerster (2011), Financial Integration and Rebalancing in Asia, IMF Working Paper WP/11/243.