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1 IEEJ:20077月掲載 Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について) Kokichi Ito Managing Director The Institute of Energy Economics, JAPAN (IEEJ) June 18, 2007 EAS Energy Efficiency and Conservation Conference

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Page 1: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

1

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement

(省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

Kokichi ItoManaging Director

The Institute of Energy Economics, JAPAN (IEEJ)

June 18, 2007EAS Energy Efficiency and Conservation Conference

Page 2: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

2

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Impact of Asian Growth on the Global Energy Demand

and Energy-Saving Potential in Asia

Page 3: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

3

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mtoe

World Primary Energy Demand by Region

Middle East

Africa Oceania

0.7%2.4%OECD

2.8 %5.4%Asia

1.7 %3.1%World

EnergyGDP

Annual growth’04-‘30

In 2030, primary energy demand of Asia achieves twice as much as current level, reflecting on highly economic growth. 3.1billion toe(2004) → 6.2 billion toe (2030)

200410.2 billion toe

203015.9 billion toe(1.6-fold increase)

World

Asia

20043.1 billion toe

20306.2 billion toe (2.0-fold increase)

Asia

N.America

OECD Europe

Non-OECD Europe

L.America

Source: IEEJ, ASIA/WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2006 (Sept. 2006)

Page 4: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

4

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Incremental Increase in World Primary Energy Demand

18%11%0%26%13%

Other AsiaIndiaJapanChinaN.America

Share in total incremental increase, 2004-2030

Approximately half of incremental increase in primary energy demand is coming from Asia

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2004-2030

MTOE

NorthAmerica

LatinAmerica

OECDEurope

India

Other Asia

Others

Japan

China

Non-OECDEurope

50% of incremental increase driven by Asia

Page 5: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

5

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Asian Primary Energy Demand by Region

20043.1 billion toe

↓2030

6.2 billion toe

20041.4 / 0.4 bil. toe

↓2030

2.9 / 1.0 bil. toe

Asia

China/India

Source: IEEJ, ASIA/WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2006 (Sept. 2006)

Based on strong economic growth, share of China in Asia significantly increases to 46%, China and India 62%. Japan’s energy share in Asia, with its slower-paced economic growth and depopulation, will decline from 17% in 2004 to 9% in 2030.

4.0%0%2.8%2004-2030

IndiaJapanChinaAnnual growth

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1971 1980 1990 2004 2010 2020 2030

China JapanSouth Korea IndiaIndonesia TaiwanSingapore MalaysiaPhilippines ThailandVietnam Hong KongOther Asia

China

Japan

S KoreaIndia

Mtoe

45%

46%

9%

17%

7%

6%

16%

12%

Page 6: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

6

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Incremental Increase in Asian Primary Energy Demand

4%Korea21%India0%Japan

47%China

Share in incremental increase,2004-2030

Of total incremental increase in Asia, China and India, as prominent consumers, will account for approximately 70%.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2004-2030

MTOE

China

India

KoreaIndonesia

Taiwan

Singapore

MalaysiaThailand

Vietnam

Japan

Other Asia

Philippines

Hong-Kong

Page 7: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

7

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1971 1980 1990 2004 2010 2020 2030

Mtoe

Asian Primary Energy Demand by Fuel

2.6%3.6%Oil

2.2%4.8%Coal

4.3%10.5%Gas

2.8%4.7%Total

’04-’30’71-’04

Annual growth

Oil35%→34%

Coal48%→42%

Gas10%→14%

Nuclear4.4%→5.7%Renewables

0.9%→3.0%Hydro

1.8%→1.6%

Coal and Oil will continue to maintain its centrality over Asian energy demand by 2030The share of natural gas is forecast to grow substantially, driven mainly by power generation

Page 8: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

8

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1971 1990 2010 2030

%

Oil

Coal

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Renewables

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1971 1990 2010 2030

%

Oil

Coal

Gas

Nuclear

HydroRenewables

Comparison of Primary Energy Mix by Fuel

World Asia

In Asia, coal remains the largest of primary energy due to electrical power demand increasing for 2030.(Coal share in Asia: 2004:48%→2030:42%)Nuclear share in Asia gradually increases with active building-up of nuclear power plants in China, India, Japan and South Korea.

Page 9: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

9

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Fuel Mix in Electricity Generation

Asian region need to address rapid growth of electricity demand mainly by coal and gas

World Asia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1971 1980 1990 2004 2010 2020 2030

%

Oil-fired

Coal-fired

Gas-fired

Nuclear

Hydro

Renewables0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1971 1980 1990 2004 2010 2020 2030

%

Oil-fired

Coal-fired

Gas-fired

NuclearHydro

Renewablesetc.

Page 10: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

10

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1971 1980 1990 2004 2010 2020 2030

million cars

Other Asia

China

India

Japan

46%

25%

16%

30%

14%

15%

9%

45%

340mil.

170mil.

510mil.

Vehicle Ownership in Asia

China will register substantial growth of vehicle ownership, with Japan representing shallow rising trend

200427 mil.

↓2030

230 mil.(8.6-fold growth)

China

200415 mil.

↓2030

73 mil.(4.9-fold growth)

India

Incremental increase,2004-2030

59 76

206

4Japan China India Other

Asia

60%17% 22%

Page 11: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

11

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

CO2 Emissions Forecast in Asia

CO2 emissions of China and India will steadily increase driven by coal consumption, the share accounting for 66% together in Asia.

20041.3 Gt-C

↓2030

2.4 Gt-C(1.8–fold growth)

20040.31 Gt-C

↓2030

0.79 Gt-C(2.5–fold growth)

China

India

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1971 1980 1990 2004 2010 2020 2030

Mt-

Other Asia

China

India

Japan

50%

27%

52%

22%

16%

6%

12%

14%

2.3 Gt-C

2.5 Gt-C

4.8 Gt-C

Incremental increase,2004-2030

▲ 47

1134748

482

Japan China India OtherAsia

49%21% 32%

Page 12: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

12

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Advanced Technology Scenario of Asia - Energy-Saving Potential -

Page 13: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

13

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Assumed Technologies for Energy Conservation

Energy conservation in industry and residential/commercial sectorHigh efficiency boiler, Coke Dry Quenching equipment(CDQ),       Top Pressure Recovery Turbine(TRT)、Demand side management,   Thermal insulation, High efficiency heat pump etc

Energy-efficiency in transport sectorHybrid-vehicle, ITS(Intelligent Transport System) etc.

Energy-efficiency in power generation sectorCoal-fired IGCC/IGFC、Gas-fired MACC etc.

RenewablesBio-fuel for automobile, photovoltaic, Wind-power,            Biomass power generation etc.

NuclearBuilding new nuclear power plant, Enhancement of operating ratio and safety control etc.

Page 14: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

14

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Potential Areas for Energy Saving in China

34%

43%39%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Present 2030

Tech

. Adv

ance

dRe

fere

nce

750

626564

0

200

400

600

800

Present 2030

(kg-ce/t)

Tech

. Adv

ance

d

Refe

renc

e

Efficiency of fossil-fired

Power Production

Fuel Efficiency

of Vehicles

Energy Efficiency

in Steel Production

Capacity EnhancementTechnological AdvanceImprovement in fuel mix

Innovative Technologies, like Hybrid EngineDownsizingClean Diesel Engine Implementation

Scale ExpansionLarge-scale waste energy recovery (TRT, CDQ)Enhanced recovery of by-product gas

11.0

17.2

14.5

0

5

10

15

20

Present 2030

(km/l)

Tech

. Adv

ance

d

Refe

renc

e

Page 15: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

15

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

3,636

5,2664,460

1,0601,684

669

3,828

6,209

3,063

5,007

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mtoe

Reference

Technologicaladvanced

Primary Energy Demand in Asia

940Mtoe(15% decline)2.8%Reference

2.1%Tech. Advanced

3.9%GDP

2004-2030Annual Growth

In 2030, aggregate primary energy demand is reduced by around 15% (940 Mtoe, 1.8 times scale of Japan’s current primary energy demand )

Page 16: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

16

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

-487

-45 -31 -42 -59

-187

-70

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0China Japan Malaysia S Korea Indonesia India Other

Mtoe-17%

-8% -18% -12% -19%

-19%

-12%

Change in Total Primary Energy Demand in Asia

Change of Total Primary Energy Demand in 2030

China2.9 bil. toe

↓2.4 bil. toe

(17% decr.)

India1.0 bil. toe

↓0.8 bil. toe

(19% decr.)

Potential of energy conservation is large in both China and India through enhancing energy consumption efficiency

Page 17: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

17

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

2,954

3,7483,396

9141,422

589

3,157

4,843

2,526

4,015

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt-C

Reference

Technologicaladvanced

CO2 Emissions in Asia

1.09 Gt-C

(23% decline)2.5%Reference

1.6%Tech. Advanced

3.9%GDP

2004-2030Annual Growth

In 2030, mitigation of CO2 emissions achieves about 22% (1.09 Gt-C)、roughly equivalent to the emissions of whole China or 3.2 times of Japan

Page 18: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

18

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Energy Consumption per capita

        2004 2030World 1.6 → 1.9OECD 4.9 → 5.4China 1.1 → 1.9India 0.3 → 0.7

In 2030, energy consumption per capita in China and India will still be below that in developed countries, which means that China and India have a huge potential to grow in energy demand

2004

7.9

4.2

1.1

0.30.9 0.8

4.9

1.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

US Japan China India Asia Non-OECD

OECD World

toe per capita 2030

8.4

4.5

1.9

0.71.4 1.3

5.4

1.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

US Japan China India Asia Non-OECD

OECD World

toe per capita

Page 19: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

19

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Economic Development and Energy Demand

Economic Development

Energy Demand

Technical Progress

A

B

B'

Take Off EconomicMaturity

EconomicGrowth

Technology Transferhelp curve energyconsumption witheconomic growth

Page 20: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

20

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Energy Conservation in Japan- Policy and Experience -

Page 21: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

21

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

100168 201

321

790

912

Japan EU15 U.S. Korea China India

Japan = 100

Total Primary Energy Supply per GDP

Japanese primary energy consumption per GDP is the lowest among major country in the worldAsian countries have potential to improve energy efficiency, making full use of Japan’s experience and technology

Commercial Energy

Page 22: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

22

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

International Comparison of Energy Efficiency

100 105 110120 120 125

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Japan Korea EU USA China Russia

Energy Consumption/Steel Production

Source: JISF

Steel Cement

Energy Consumption/Clinker

100

130 131145 152

177 178

0

50

100

150

200

Japan EU Korea LatinAmerica

China US Russia

Source: Battelle

Japan = 100(2003) Japan = 100

(2003)

Page 23: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

23

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Key Features of Japan’s Energy Conservation Policy

Objective– In the 1970’s, efforts to improve

energy efficiency were made to ensure energy security

– In recent years, energy efficiency is one of the important measures to reduce CO2 emissions

Key Features– In close cooperation with private

sector, Japanese government takes advantage of its self-initiative and business vitality

– Carefully crafted policy on a sector by sector basis

– Contributed to competitiveness in the market, improving productivity and developing innovative technologies

Energy SecurityClimate Change

Government

Business

• Energy Conservation Frontrunner Plan

• Set Standards and Product Labeling

• Support R&D

• Optimization in energy use

• Develop innovative technologies

• Voluntary Action Plan

Page 24: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

24

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Combination of Regulations and Effective Measures

【Policy System for Energy Efficiency 】

1. Regulations by Government (Energy Conservation Law)2. Support and subsidy system (finance, tax, subsidiary aid)3. Voluntary Action (Keidanren Voluntary Action Plan on

Environment, Cost reduction efforts)

Regulations

Subsidy

Sector

Page 25: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

25

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

High Dependence on Imported Energy and Middle East OilHigh Crude oil pricesHigh Share of heavy industries in energy structure

Japan’s Energy Conservation Policies & Measures

Energy Conservation Law was established in 1979 with Industry Sector as its primary target.

Review and Revision Energy Conservation LawAdditional measures (Top Runner Program, Periodical Report on Energy Consumption, Energy Manager System) Expanded sector coverage (Transportation, Residential/ Commercial)

Secure Energy Security

Urgent need for drastic “Energy Conservation”

After 1979

Page 26: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

26

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Historical Development of Energy Conservation Law

ResidentialCommercial

1979 EstablishmentDesignated Energy Management FactoriesGuidance for Buildings and Appliances

1983 AmendmentLicensed energy manager system

1992 AmendmentPeriodical reporting

1998 AmendmentExpand coverage of factories

2002 AmendmentEnergy Management of Office Buildings 2005 Amendment

Reporting System on Energy by Carriers

2005 Amendment Integration of Heat and Power Control

TransportationIndustry

1998 AmendmentTop Runner Program

Page 27: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

27

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Sectoral Policy and Measures for Energy Conservation

• Improve energy intensity of power generation • Develop clean and efficient technologies (e.g. IGCC)

Energy Conversion

• Energy-Saving Labeling System promotes energy efficient appliances

• Improved efficiency of appliances in line with the “Top Runner Program”

• Energy Efficient Product Retailer Assessment System

Household

• Improvements in energy efficiency of buildings, incl. promotion of High-Efficiency Air Conditioning Systems

• Expanding ESCO Market • Improved efficiency of appliances in line with the “Top Runner

Program”

Buildings

• The “Top Runner Program” is a key driver to improve fuel efficiency of vehicles

• Promotion of clean energy automobiles• Energy conservation measures for cargo owners and carriers

Transportation

• Voluntary Action Plan on the Environment• Introduction of energy efficient equipment (e.g. High-

performance industrial furnace, High-performance boiler, and Next-generation coke oven)

• Energy Management System in factory

Industry

Specific MeasuresSector

Page 28: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

28

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Philosophy Positive involvement in environmental issues is essential to thesurvival of companies as well as their activities.

Participants 35 industries (CO2 Coverage Ratio : 83% in 1990)

Overall Target in FY2010Reduce CO2 emissions from Industrial and Energy- conversion sectors below the amount in 1990

Implementation of Energy Conservation Measures Each industry sets the target respectively. The progress is jointly reviewed with the government and third party at the regular follow-up meetings

Industry Sector

KEIDANREN :Japan Federation of Economic Organizations

KEIDANREN, Voluntary Action Plan on Environment

Page 29: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

29

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Industry Sector

KEIDANREN, Voluntary Action Plan on Environment (Cont.)

Total CO2 emissions in 1990 : 1,144.1 million t-CO2 Total CO2 emissions in the Industrial and Energy-conversion sectors in 1990 : 612.7 million t-CO2

CO2 emissions below 1990 level

All Industry

▲20% CO2 Intensity below 1990 by 2010Power

▲10% Energy Intensity below 1990 by 2010

Paper and Pulp

▲10% Energy Intensity below 1990 by 2010Chemical

▲ 10% Energy Consumption below 1990 by 2010

Steel

TargetSectorTarget and Current Status

of All Industry

Target508.2

CurrentStatus505.1

450

500

550

2005 2010

Mt

Page 30: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

30

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Energy Intensity in Basic Material Industry

Basic material industries such as Steel, Paper / Pulp and Cement Industries have improved their energy intensity after the 1st Oil Crisis

(Source) IEEJ, EDMC Handbook of Energy & Economic Statistics in Japan 2007

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

1965 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05

Energy Intensity(×103Kcal/Ton) 1st Oil Crisis 2nd Oil Crisis

3,640

2,870

1,430

4,830

4,170

1,550

5,950

4,540

1,870

Cement

Steel

Paper

Page 31: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

31

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003

(100 million yen)

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

(GJ/t)

Investment and Energy Consumption in Steel Sector

Energy Saving MeasuresProcess continuationEnhanced recovery of by-product gasLarge-scale waste energy recovery (TRT, CDQ)Expand utilization of soft coking coal (PCI)

Source: JISF, IEEJ

Investment

Energy Consumption

per Steel Production

Subsidy facilitates investment in energy saving facilities

Page 32: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

32

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Top Runner Program: Overview

Example of the Top Runner Program

Standard set year Target year

15km/L

14km/L

13km/L

12km/L

19km/L

18km/L

17km/L

15km/L

Achievement is judged by a weighted average by product category.

Fuel efficiency

(km/L)

16

Top Runner ProgramThe top runner program was introduced in 1999 based on the Energy Conservation Law for home / office appliances and automotives. Under this system, targets are set based on the value of the most energy-efficient products on the market at the time of the value setting process. Standard values are set by considering potential technological improvements added as efficiency improvements. Manufacturers who have not achieved the standards are given advise, publicly announced, given an order, or fined (one million yen or less).DVD recorders

Microwave ovens

Electric rice cookers

2006

Transformers

Vending machines

Electric toilet seats

Oil water heaters

Gas water heaters

Gas cooking appliances

Space heaters

2002

Electric freezers

Electric refrigerators

Freight vehicles

Passenger vehicles

Video cassette recorders

Magnetic disk units

Computers

Copying machines

Television sets

Fluorescent lights

Air conditioners

1999

21 AppliancesEnforcement

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IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Top Runner Program, Target and Actual Results

67.8% (2004)66.1% (2004)Air-Conditioner(COP)

73.6% (2003)58.7% (2003)Videotape Recorder

Improvement of Efficiency

23.0% (2010)

22.9% (2004)

30.5% (2004)

16.4% (2003)

Target

25.7% (2003)TV Set

22.8% (2004)Gasoline-powered Passenger Car

29.6% (2004)Freezer

55.2% (2004)Refrigerator

ActualAppliance

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IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

919

1492

0

400

800

1200

1600

1995 2005

kWh

Air Conditioner Refrigerator

As a result of efforts made by manufacturers, etc. the efficiency of each piece of equipment has been improved to a level higher than it was initially expected.

Energy Efficiency Improvement of House Appliances

2.25

0.49

0

1

2

3

1995 2005

kWh/L-Year

-38.4%

-78.2%

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IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Sapporto Tokyo

kcal/h

Without Insulation

50mm

100mm

150m

Building Insulation

Effect of InsulationFor Cooling

thickness of grass wool

Effect of InsulationFor Heating

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Tokyo Naha

kcal/h

Without Insulation

50mm100mm

150mm

60-74% 63-77%

35-44% 28-32%

Insulation reduces heat flow through the building, which improves energy efficiency. The appropriate amount of insulation depends on the building design, climate, price of energy, and cost of materials.

Page 36: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

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IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

0

20

40

60

80

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mtoe

ForecastActual

-30%23Mtoe

-24%17Mtoe

-8%5Mtoe

Energy Consumption in Residential Sector

Effect of Top Runner Program in Residential Sector

Conserved EnergyBy Top Runner

Energy Saving Labeling helps consumer choose energy efficient products, which facilitate implementation of Top Runner Program

58 Mtoe(TPES)

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IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Fuel Efficiency of Passenger Cars (Shipment Base)

Transportation Sector, Top Runner Program

Improvement of fuel efficiency is one of the most effective strategies to curve energy demandThe Top Runner fuel efficiency standard was introduced in April 1999 with the target year of FY 2010. Approximately 80% (shipment base) of gasoline passenger vehicles achieved the 2010 standard in 2004

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

1975 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10 15

22.8%UP

KM/L 10.15mode, Gasoline-Powered Passenger car

1999Top Runner

Achieved Targetahead of schedule

New Target

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IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mtoe

-26%15Mtoe

-17%10Mtoe

-5%3Mtoe

ForecastActual

Effect of Top Runner Program in Transportation Sector

In total, the Top Runner Program currently in place in Japan had an effect to save a 2700ktoe in 2004, or 3.3% of the consumption of gas to that yearAs time passes, the effect becomes bigger and bigger due to the replacement effect

Energy Consumption in Road Transport

Conserved EnergyBy Top Runner

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IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Comparison of Fuel Efficiency

Combination of fuel economy standard, including Top Runner Program, and green taxation system helped improve energy efficiency of vehiclesIntensive competition between Japanese manufactures were another factor

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000

km/l

weight (kg)

GermanyUnited States

Prius

Japan

China

Hybrid

Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (2006), IEEJ

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IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Coal23%

Hydro10%

Oil8%

Nuclear29%Gas

29%

Coal13%

Hydro24%

Oil60%

Nuclear2%

Gas1%

Electricity Production and CO2 Emission in Power Sector

Coal13%

Hydro24%

Oil60%

Nuclear2%

Gas1%

Source: IEEJ

Source: The Federation of Electric Power Companies

CO2 Emission Intensity shows lasting improvement mainly by fuel switching and efficiency gain in generation and transmission

CO2 emissions Intensity

CO2 Emissions in Power Sector

1970

2004

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IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Electricity Production and CO2 Emission in Power Sector

25

30

35

40

45

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

%

China

Japan

CO2 emissions intensity

of thermal power plants (2003)Efficiency of thermal power plants

Source: IEA, IEEJ

Efficiency of thermal power generation keeps improving, which contributed to CO2 emissions reduction from power sectorJapan’s electric power industry achieved the lowest CO2 emission intensity among major countries

33.2%

41.1%

Source: ECOFYS

100 99

117 117

130

152

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Japan UK USA Germany China India

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IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Necessity of Data Collection toward the goals and action plan

Page 43: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

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IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Energy Statistics: Very Important tool

Understanding energy supply/ demand balance is essential for “Energy Security” strategy designing as well as monitoring the achievement of “Energy Conservation (Efficiency Improvement) Policies”.“Energy Data” AND related “Activity Data” are essential tool for energy demand & supply analyses.Analytical models and outlook can be designed and estimated based on such data.

Accurate, consistent, thorough and timelyenergy, economic and social data should be collected via sound national statistical system.

Page 44: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

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IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

CoalCrude

OilOil

ProductsNatural Gas

TownGas

Hydro Nuclear Electricity Total

Domestic ProductionImportExportStock ChangeTPESPower GenerationOil RefiningCokes ProductionOther ConversionOwn Use & LossesFinal Energy Demand Industry Residential & Commercial Residential Commercial Transportation Passenger Freight Non- Energy

Energy Statistics in Japan

Supply

Conversion

DemandEnergy Consumption Survey

Resource & Energy Statistics

Electricity Statistics

Town Gas Statistics

Demand-Supply Statistics

Energy Balance Table

Page 45: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

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IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Capacity Building on Energy Data and Analysis

APEC Energy Statistics WorkshopJODI (Joint Oil Data Initiative) Training Seminars (as APEC with EUROSTAT, IEA, OLADE and UN)China-Japan Economic Statistics WorkshopAPEC Energy Supply & Demand Outlook Seminar (1993- )Training on Energy Demand Outlook Model in ASEAN (with ESSPA, 2003-)

…. and many others

Page 46: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

46

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Toward the Goals and Action Plan

Page 47: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

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IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Action Plan towards Energy Saving

Target setting (Sectoral Approach)

Action Plan preparation to achieve the target

Pledge and Review process

National policies and measures to be chosen

Regional cooperation to reach the target together and take a step further

Page 48: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

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IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Setting Goals and Action Plan

Development of statistical system and Data collection

Setting Goals (Country/Sector-wise)

Policy Options

Development of Action Plan

Implementation

Review & Evaluation

Lessons fromOther Nations

Indicators

Existing Legal System

ExistingApproaches

Lessons fromOther Nations

Page 49: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

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IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Basic Ideas for setting goals

Country Level

Sector Level

Gross Energy Consumption

Energy Intensity (GDP, per capita)

GDP Elasticity

As the size of economy increases, gross energy consumption could grow even if efficiency improves

Sector-wise Target

To promote energy efficiency, country-wise goal setting would be effective. Following items can be considered as a goal.

Indicators of energy efficiency consistent with economic growth

Measured as the percentage change in energy consumption that occurs in response to a percentage change in GDP. Difficulty in comparison with other countries.

To accelerate energy saving in energy intensive industries, setting sector specific targets would be effective

Page 50: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

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IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Policy Options for Energy Conservation 1

Energy Standards for plant facilities

Energy Management System

Energy Efficiency Law

Incentives for investment in energy saving facilities

(Subsidy, Tax benefits, Preferential Interest Rate)

Research and Development

Sector Initiative for voluntary actions

Industry

Labeling Systems for Buildings and Appliances, including Top Runner Program

Energy Efficiency Law

Incentives for purchase of energy efficient appliances (Subsidy,Tax Benefits)

Consumer Awareness

Development of ESCO business

Government procurement of energy efficient products

Residential/Commercial

Page 51: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

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IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Policy Options for Energy Conservation 2

Energy Standards (incl. Top Runner Program) and Labeling

Energy Management System for Carriers

Energy Efficient Law

Incentives for purchase of vehicles with higher fuel efficiency

Government procurement of fuel efficient vehicles

Transportation

Energy Prices (Market Price System)

Development of Energy Statistics

Capacity Buildings in policy-implementation organization and development of support system for energy efficiency

All Sectors

Page 52: Setting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency …eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/1507.pdfSetting Goals and Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Improvement (省エネ推進のための目標及び行動計画の設定について)

52

IEEJ:2007年7月掲載

Image of Goals and Action Plan Development

Improve energy efficiency X% or Y ktoe/$ (Energy Consumption per GDP) by 20XX

In Z sector, improve energy efficiency X% or Y ktoe/production by 20XX (Set goals in energy intensive industries)

Goals

Action Plan

Enhance Energy Efficiency Law with Energy Management System and Energy Standards by 20XX.

Establish Subsidy system (Tax benefits or Low interest loan) for energy efficient facilities/appliances by 20XX

Establish X policy-implementation organizations across the country by 20XX

Develop voluntary action plan of private sectors by 20XX

Review energy subsidy system by 20XX

Develop energy statistics with the coverage of major energy intensive sectors by 20XX

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