Published: 12:02 AM, 03 May 2020

Keep the lockdown or lift it?

https://dailyasianage.com/news/228301/keep-the-lockdown-or-lift-it

M S Siddiqui

The number of deaths officially attributed to the new coronavirus has topped 200,000 globally and at least 2.9 million people have been infected, according to a recent tally by Johns Hopkins University. Those figures understate the true toll of the pandemic, due to limited testing, problems in counting the dead and some governments' moves to underplay their outbreaks. Bangladesh has a total of 46,589 samples were tested so far in the country, with the latest, the total number of infected has reached 5,416 and death toll is about 150 (while writing this article). This statistics is on the basis of test at few testing facilities around the country. The tests are also inadequate and the actual death toll is not reflecting in the report. Never the less, the government report can be treated as sample test similar to any standard research. The selection of person to test (population) is not randomly selected but the test conducted on the symptomatic people, who came to centre with specific complain. The statistics revealed the lowest positives result. It may be conclude that the number of death and infection is less than other infected countries around the world. Many observers looking for such low infection, while citizen are not in a position to follow the strict rule of social distance. The poor section of the society and lower middle class living in small houses and sharing common washroom and even a family consist of 4/5 members are living in one single room. It may be a good news for Bangladesh that, high temperature and humidity condition can reduce the transmission of the novel coronavirus or COVID-19, which has so far affected 162 countries and territories including Bangladesh, according to a study by Chinese researchers. The finding is consistent with the fact that high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. Different studies already predicted that with the onset of monsoon the spread of the novel coronavirus would slow down in many Asian countries. This is potentially reflecting other factors such climate, exposure to malaria, or even high tuberculosis vaccination rates. Demography of population also favours South Asia. India,

Pakistan and Bangladesh are among the youngest countries in the world, with 5-8 per cent of their populations aged over 60 and 2-3 per cent aged over 70. Countries in the West have great numbers of elderly population. However, Bangladesh has more than 80 percentage people under 40 years age and average age is 25.7 years (2015 statistics) and definitely our health mathematics will not work with theirs. It is worth comparison that with Italy's age distribution of about 16 per cent aged over 60, and 10 per cent aged over 70. With around 85-90 per cent of Covid-19 deaths in the over 60 demographic this may make for a smaller population at risk. Apart from demography, many reports have credited the widespread use of tuberculosis vaccine Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) in playing a role in inhibiting the spread of COVID-19. On the other hand, Bangladesh is going through the fourth stage of infection means many people will be infected and many patients have to go to hospital and many people presume to die. At this stage, there is a demand from many stakeholders for gradually re-open the economy. Economists also in favour of gradual opening of economy. It is presume that PPE, appropriate masks, gloves can reduce the spread of the virus and still allow people to work can be an option especially with working sectors for the marginalized and poor communities. Although many people cannot afford buy these protective instruments. World Bank reports on April 12, on South Asia's economies revised its regional GDP growth forecast for 2020 from 6.3 percent to between 1.8 and 2.8 percent. A slowdown of that magnitude would be South Asia's worst annual economic performance in forty years. The report also warns that the pandemic will exacerbate inequality and disproportionately impact the poor. Bangladesh already started feeling the impacts of coronavirus on the economy. The Chottagram port is almost full with containers laying for release and about 40 ships are waiting at outer anchor for berth to unload imported goods. The small and medium entrepreneurs in the port city would face a loss of Tk 370 billion during Ramadan due to the lockdown. Shipping lines are reluctant to book containers for Chattagram port. Out RMG export are most hit by the coronavirus. The famous brands have cancelled or held up billions of dollars in orders due to the pandemic, crippling an industry that accounts for country's export earnings. More than four million people work in thousands of garment factories across Bangladesh, which last year shipped out $35 billion of apparel to retailers such as H&M, Inditex and Walmart last year -- second only to China. Factories shut their doors in late March and but some factories said they were now being pushed by retailers to fulfil outstanding export orders. They were under pressure from the foreign buyers to reopen 865 factories. The $35 billion sector has seen orders of as much as $3 billion cancelled due to the pandemic. The exporters claimed that coronavirus as part of life and shall accept the reality of the situation. A group of businesses, industrialists and economists have demanded that the big industrial units and small and medium factories reopen on a limited scale following health guidelines to "save the economy". They asked the government to look at the decisions made by countries that are competitors of Bangladesh in exports, such as China, Vietnam, India and Cambodia, and follow the same path. The chief of WHO in Dhaka differ with the proposal referring to country's ability to detect, isolate, test and treat the people, which should be in place before anything.

The lock down was very necessary but many vital other issues are absolutely needed and is still needed. The strategy plan to re-open the economy is very much need as well. Within the debate on different media, the Ministry of Public Administration announced the move on outlining fresh directives for the latest shutdown period upto 5th May. The shutdown order does not apply to essential services or projects involving agriculture, fertiliser, pesticide, food industries, industrial goods, raw materials for national projects, kitchen markets, drug stores, hospitals and other emergency services. Some industrial units, agriculture and production and supply-related sectors will reopen gradually considering the present situation. Drug makers and exporters will also allowed to run their factories as long as they take steps to protect the health and safety of workers. Trucks, lorries and cargo vessels transporting goods will continue plying the roads and waterways, the order said. Government also relaxed the lockdown rule and gradually allow RMG industries and related support business and services. The public transports are still not allowed till 5th May. By this time many other industries such as jute and other commodities has started limited operations to meet the crisis of demand and supply. Bangladesh now stands at the juncture of the greatest public policy debate of whether to continue the lock down or let the economy open and stop the millions from starving. The question is not of coronavirus infection and also starvation of millions of people particularly who are working in the informal sectors. Bangladesh is now your turn to make the right decision and save the country from economic ruin. Let us see the outcome of the gradual opening of the economy and impact on spread of coronavirus. The prestigious US magazine Forbes has highly praised Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and placed her in the list of successful women leadership for her sincere efforts to contain the coronavirus pandemic in Bangladesh. The writer is a legal economist Email: mssiddiqui2035@gmail.com