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Shift Happens! How to think like Steve Jobs and be a Shift Disturber in the HD Aftermarket Presented by Rick Funston Heavy Duty Aftermarket Conference Las Vegas, January 2017

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  • Shift Happens!How to think like Steve Jobs

    and be a Shift Disturberin the HD Aftermarket

    Presented by Rick Funston

    Heavy Duty Aftermarket ConferenceLas Vegas, January 2017

  • Steve Jobs Chief Shift Disturber1997 Jobs returns to APPL Microsoft had won PC WWI 1981-1997 MSFT had worlds 3rd biggest market cap ($160B) Apple was Fortune #496 lost $1 billion in 1996 APPL market share had fallen from 16% to 4% APPL stock price had fallen from $70 to $14 - 90 days from bankruptcy MSFT loaned APPL $150 million to help keep them afloat By 2012, APPL had become #1 market cap MSFT had fallen to #9 to $224B (from 1999 high of $586 B)

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC 2

  • WW2 1997-2012

    3

    Think Different Pirates Hippies Change the world Control the entire experience Integrated devices /software (not PCs) Consumer goods Mobile Touch Cannibalize Closed system A team only Concentric hierarchy

    Microsoft/IBM PC compatible Apple

    Think The Navy Nerds/Geeks A computer on every desk Synergy thru 3rd parties Windows / software only Business only Desktop / stationary Type Never cannibalize Open system Stacked ranking Divisional pyramid

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

  • Forces of Creative Destruction are always at work Sooner or later the industry leading business model will be replaced Will you see it coming? Will you be prepared? Will you survive and thrive? Will you have your shift together? Will you be a shift disturber? Will you be the Steve Jobs of the HD Aftermarket?

    4

    The future aint what it used to be Yogi Berra

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

    Shifts in Strategic Business Models

  • Hindsights Easy

    Is it possible to see these shifts prospectively? Drum shift to ADB? Rear view mirror shift to rear cameras?

    How valuable would this foresight be? Offensively? Defensively?

    Challenge is to get alignment on the bold moves needed to create and sustain competitive shift and advantage

    5Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

    The farther back you look, the farther forward you can see Winston Churchill

    How to see the next

    shift coming

  • Not First nor Last!

    Life short Art long

    Opportunity fleetingExperience misleading

    Judgment difficult

    Hippocrates 400 B.C.

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC 6

  • Overview

    Big shifts are happening quickly in the HD Aftermarket Its business model warfare Adapt, wither or die! Need to think out of the box - radical innovation Takes exceptional leadership

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC 7

  • HD Aftermarket Intelligence

    Received input from a lot of people: Tim Kraus and HDMA team Commercial Vehicles Solutions Network HDMA Education Committee Dave Slaman Survey of HD Distributors and Suppliers

    8Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

  • Presentation in Two Parts

    1. HD Aftermarket Survey Results2. How to wage Business Model WARFARE

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC 9

  • Business Model

    The way an organization creates, delivers

    and captures value

    10Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

  • Leadership, Vision,

    Strategy & Organization

    Value Proposition

    Profit System

    Product / ServiceSystem

    Business Model

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

    Create

    DeliverCapture

    Value

    21st Century HD AftermarketBusiness Model?

    Competitive Ecosystem

  • Heres What You Said HD Aftermarket Survey 2016

    77 responses (quantitative and Verbatims) 38 Distributors

    16% over $100 million in sales 47% have more than 100 employees Target market - 82 % not first truck owner

    39 Suppliers 56% over $100 million in sales 68% have more than 100 employees Target market - 73% not first truck owner

    12Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

  • Shifts in Competitive EcosystemInteractive, Complex, Fast Legislative, Regulatory, Tax & Policy Uncertainty Fast and accelerating tech shifts / faster obsolescence Growth of Private Brands Increasing Channel Consolidation & Co-Opetition

    Suppliers Customers Dealer Competition / Pricing Imports (Quality / Price / Volume)

    Influx of low cost, low quality? import parts Parts / Number Proliferation Same Day Delivery

    OEMs coming on very strong Vertical Integration of OEM's

    OEM stronghold on part replacement

    OEMs are coming after our business

    Increasing proprietary parts at OEM level

    Direct competition at fleet level

    Driving original purchaser to return to dealership for parts

    Fleets pushed to the OEMs network due to technology.

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC 13

  • Shifts in Competitive EcosystemDistributors

    Traditional distribution channels are blurring

    Technology is at the OEM now. Not an Aftermarket item

    OEMs already gaining market share

    Telematics is the next OEM dominant position

    Some suppliers will sell direct which opens the floodgates.

    Internet = reduced service at lower cost

    Tech Savvy distribution channels will be an alternate source of components (Amazon like)

    Suppliers All participants will have to prove their value.

    Efficiency in the supply chain will be an ongoing focus. Keep up with technology or you lose.

    White box high tech products will change the market structure

    All Makes programs will compete in Aftermarket

    Telematics require humans to interpret and act upon the resulting data.

    At the current time, the HD industry doesn't have the human brain power to make use of Telematics on a wide basis.

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC 14

  • Shifts in Products / Services

    Increased durability/longer replacement cycles Imported knock-offs

    Quality is improving or equal

    Channel conflicts Distributor Consolidation Direct Supplier to Customer - bypassing Distribution On line sales

    Demand for Product Knowledge Understanding features & benefits of products

    Rising costs of Inventory and Asset Management

    Obsolescence / Inventory Turn / Value Having inventory to quickly satisfy fleet needs

    Availability of parts for late model engines/truck from suppliers

    Branded OEM based

    Aftermarket parts for European platforms

    15Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

    All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. Arthur Schopenhauer

  • Shifts in Profit System

    Margin Erosion Especially if competing on price

    only Supply chain / inventory

    management challenges with part proliferation

    Cost of keeping up with technology / obsolescence

    Pricing Internet Dealers Overseas knockoffs

    16Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

    Value / Quality vs Price tradeoffs

  • Profit System Distributors

    Quality products, great service, low prices, everybodys dream. Pick the two you want to have

    Need the inventory. Price doesnt matter if you dont have it

    Accounts, where only pricing matters, are typically not very profitable

    We make our biggest profit on obsolete parts Need to be more proactive promoting the

    value of parts availability and service we provide

    Push technology boundaries - be part of it, not a bystander

    Suppliers Price is a consideration but technology is the

    goal for our products

    Depends on the product line. Some will command a premium, and others will become increasingly commoditized

    Uptime and cost per mile drives the fleets. If you dont contribute to improvement you are going to be replaced

    Lower cost is dependent upon the area and the number of competitors. There is also online ordering

    Being the highest value supplier Service is as important as price

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC 17

  • Profit SystemDistributors OEM dealers have a better

    infrastructure to supply parts.

    Margins for distribution are not high enough to support the amount of inventory required to compete with OEMS

    The only way to combat the OEMs is to have it on the shelf

    Suppliers Cant sell out of an empty basket Suppliers have a responsibility to turn

    orders around quickly.

    There are enough methods for shipping that make the info regarding WHERE the part is more important than possession of the part.

    Customers will have to deal with more shipping costs in their businesses

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC 18

  • Shifts in Value Proposition

    Suppliers are valuing the OEM dealerships over the Aftermarket Distributors need aggressive market strategy / value added programs Cant compete just on price Have to modernize the industry. Make it more relevant Value: Sell benefits you bring to a customer Build brand equity Distributors must expand product portfolio beyond commodity products. Need to change our Business Model

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC 19

    Everything is moving so fast, what worked yesterday will not work for tomorrow

  • Shifts in Leadership and Organization

    Need strong, bold leadership Find and keep good people with skills & experience

    Ongoing people changes / turnover Aging knowledgeable workforce Need people who know parts

    Recruit / retain new young, qualified talent into the industry Need qualified and trained staff / competent Service Techs

    Train and develop people and the next generation Transferring the knowledge from the existing aging staff to the next generation

    (SOPs) Proximity to local College for training /retraining

    Succession Planning

    20Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

  • Shifts in Vision and Strategy

    Growth Strategy? Portfolio? Add value thru features and

    benefits to product?

    Loyalty Strategy? Brand Loyalty Vendor loyalty Customer Loyalty People Loyalty

    Price / Value / Profit Strategy? Pricing battles over junk products to

    save a penny?

    IP Strategy? Proprietary information causing

    exclusion from sales

    Fleet Strategy/ Priorities? Sell Direct Strategy?

    Embrace? Defend?

    Leadership Strategy? People

    21Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

    What is your vision and strategy to create, deliver and capture Value?

  • Denial aint just a river in EgyptMark Twain

    22Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

  • Business Model Wars Computer wars MSFT vs. APPL Dell vs. IBM Salesforce vs. Siebel Travel agencies vs. on-line Bookstores and music stores vs.

    eBooks and streaming

    Retail stores vs. Amazon Blockbuster vs. Netflix Yellow Pages vs. Google

    Education vs. On-line education Banking vs. Bitcoin Taxicabs & Limos vs. Uber Hotels vs. Air BnB Real estate agents vs. FSBO Heavy Duty Aftermarket

    DISINTERMEDIATION

    23Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

  • WarfareSymmetric = Sameness / Uniform / UnvaryingAsymmetric = Differentness / Irregular / VariableSynthetic = Best of both

    Applies to strategies and tactics Symmetric Alpha players usually initially disregard, ridicule or dismiss asymmetric

    attacks

    24Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

  • Waging Business Model Warfare

    Better yet to attack their business model assumptions Alpha leaders business model is known Attack weakness of sameness with differentness Think the unthinkable out of the box Simple but not simplistic If you are the Alpha, do it yourself or have others do it to you

    25

    The acme of military strategy is to attack the enemys plans, next is to disrupt their alliances, third is to attack their army and

    worst of all is to attack their fortified cities. Sun Tzu

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

  • Symmetric Warfare

    Standing military French / English / Spanish Single line of battle WW1 trench warfare Geneva Convention

    Sports rules of the game (RPO) Oligopolies regulation

    26

    Generals always prepare to fight the last war

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

  • Asymmetric WarfareWeaker actors must attack weakness not strength have no choice

    David vs. Goliath Maginot Line Nelson at Trafalgar Colonial Wars American Revolution Vietnam vs. U.S. 9/11 attack on World Trade Center Stuxnet cyber warfare vs. Iran plus economic sanctions ISIS / Iraq / Syria Afghanistan

    27

    Hit em where they aint Willie Keeler

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

  • Intelligence is the ability to adaptAlfred Einstein

    28Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

    Adapt to what?Shifts!!!

  • Thinking Out of the Box

    Think the box / describe the box Its the hardest thing to do

    Then describe the opposite By definition, its out of the box

    Radical Innovation!!!

    29Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

    A fish doesnt know it is swimming in water

  • From Alpha Leaders to Losers

    Encyclopedia Britannica Siebel Nokia Apple?

    Kodak Xerox RIM Blockbuster

    30

    Every object will remain at rest or in uniform motion in a straight line unless compelled to change its state by the action of an external force.

    Newtons First Law

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

  • WW3 2012-2017APPL Lags in Command

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC 31

    Think Different Pirates Hippies Change the world Control the entire experience Integrated devices /software Consumer goods Mobile Touch Cannibalize Closed system A team only Concentric hierarchy

    APPL

    Inertia has set in Voice-activated intelligence

    Siri was first but now lags Amazon Echo Alphabet

    Quality slipping Macs neglected Cloud services undifferentiated Missed ship dates Product bugs APPL exec comp cuts Lack autonomy

  • Leadership, Vision,

    Strategy & Organization

    Value Proposition

    Profit System

    Product / ServiceSystem

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

    Create

    DeliverCapture

    Value

    How will you do it?21st Century

    HD AftermarketBusiness Model

    Competitive Ecosystem

  • Now What?

    Major shifts happening quickly in HD Aftermarket ecosystem Need proactive strategy (value, products, profit, leadership) Need very fast reaction to shifts velocity matters

    How fast can it happen? How fast can you respond?

    What signals a shift? Whats real? Whats not? Requisite conditions?

    Even if you are on the right track, youll get run over if you just sit there Will Rogers

    33Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

  • Be a Shift Disturber

    When industry life or death assumptions change, who will be the first to know?

    Who will be the first to develop and execute a superior business model?

    Requires exceptional leadership and vision

    34Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

  • Shift Disturbers Motto:

    Do unto others before they do it to you!!!

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC 35

  • For further information:

    Rick FunstonManaging PartnerFunston Advisory Services [email protected]

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC 36

    mailto:[email protected]

  • HD Aftermarket Survey Highlights

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC 37

  • D SSmaller distributors will continue to be rolled up into larger groups 87 98Customers will merge and consolidate 65 97Continuing regulatory change (emissions/autonomous vehicles) with increased cost impacts.

    90 87

    V2V (vehicle to vehicle) and V2I (vehicle to infrastructure) technologies will bring new competitors to the HD Aftermarket

    84 89

    Co-opetition, i.e., competition between suppliers and customers, will increase.

    95 92

    Channel competition will increase as OEMs and their dealers increasingly emphasize Parts and Service

    97 97

    Telematics will create a big change in the future 92 90More suppliers will go direct to customers and by-pass distributors. 56 55

    % Agreement

    Shifts in Competitive Ecosystem

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC 38

    Sheet1

    DS

    Smaller distributors will continue to be rolled up into larger groups8798

    Customers will merge and consolidate6597

    Continuing regulatory change (emissions/autonomous vehicles) with increased cost impacts.9087

    V2V (vehicle to vehicle) and V2I (vehicle to infrastructure) technologies will bring new competitors to the HD Aftermarket8489

    Co-opetition, i.e., competition betweensuppliers and customers, will increase.9592

    Channel competition will increase as OEMs and their dealers increasingly emphasize Parts and Service9797

    Telematics will create a big change in the future9290

    More suppliers will go direct to customers and by-pass distributors.5655

    Vision / Value PropositionDS

    In the future, we will increasingly have to compete primarily on the basis of price4841

    The HD Aftermarket will need to be more responsive to customer requirements and rapidly changing OEM specifications.10098

    The HD Aftermarket will need to maintain high availability of parts due to the proliferation of new components.10095

    Managing inventory assets cost effectively9892

    Avoiding obsolesence9578

    Being the lowest cost provider4427

    Service level requirements will increase the need for more capable staff and ongoing training.10089

    The right to repair could create value for the independent aftermarket distributor.9584

    Expand into service6453

    Broaden our product / service offering9297

    Work with marketing to develop a national fleet program4874

    Develop a group of customers who see the value of doing business with us9292

    We have a program to measure the success of our strategies6687

    Leadership, Strategy and OrganizationDS

    Distributors will need to develop their leadership capacity to respond to the rate and magnitude of change.95100

    Ability to attract and retain skilled people9595

    Continuous training and development9584

    Planning (strategic, tactical, financial, technology)9290

    Succession planning8682

    Product / Service SystemDS

    eCommerce8184

    Inventory management8992

    Tooling6634

    Profit SystemDS

    Access capital /credit5951

    Manage inventory8670

    Prevent margin erosion8973

    Provide the highest value added9792

  • Product / Service System D SeCommerce 81 84Inventory management 89 92Tooling 66 34

    % Agreement

    39Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

    To deal with change, distributors must be willing and able to acquire / invest in:

    Shifts in Products / Services

    Sheet1

    Competitive EcosystemDS

    Smaller distributors will continue to be rolled up into larger groups8798

    Customers will merge and consolidate6597

    Continuing regulatory change (emissions/autonomous vehicles) with increased cost impacts.9087

    V2V (vehicle to vehicle) and V2I (vehicle to infrastructure) technologies will bring new competitors to the HD Aftermarket8489

    Co-opetition, i.e., competition betweensuppliers and customers, will increase.9592

    Channel competition will increase as OEMs and their dealers increasingly emphasize Parts and Service9797

    Telematics will create a big change in the future9290

    More suppliers will go direct to customers and by-pass distributors.5655

    Vision / Value PropositionDS

    In the future, we will increasingly have to compete primarily on the basis of price4841

    The HD Aftermarket will need to be more responsive to customer requirements and rapidly changing OEM specifications.10098

    The HD Aftermarket will need to maintain high availability of parts due to the proliferation of new components.10095

    Managing inventory assets cost effectively9892

    Avoiding obsolesence9578

    Being the lowest cost provider4427

    Service level requirements will increase the need for more capable staff and ongoing training.10089

    The right to repair could create value for the independent aftermarket distributor.9584

    Expand into service6453

    Broaden our product / service offering9297

    Work with marketing to develop a national fleet program4874

    Develop a group of customers who see the value of doing business with us9292

    We have a program to measure the success of our strategies6687

    Leadership, Strategy and OrganizationDS

    Distributors will need to develop their leadership capacity to respond to the rate and magnitude of change.95100

    Ability to attract and retain skilled people9595

    Continuous training and development9584

    Planning (strategic, tactical, financial, technology)9290

    Succession planning8682

    Product / Service SystemDS

    eCommerce8184

    Inventory management8992

    Tooling6634

    Profit SystemDS

    Access capital /credit5951

    Manage inventory8670

    Prevent margin erosion8973

    Provide the highest value added9792

  • Profit System D SAccess capital /credit 59 51Manage inventory 86 70Prevent margin erosion 89 73Provide the highest value added 97 92

    % Agreement

    40Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

    Success in the HD Aftermarket will require:

    Shifts in Profit System

    Sheet1

    Competitive EcosystemDS

    Smaller distributors will continue to be rolled up into larger groups8798

    Customers will merge and consolidate6597

    Continuing regulatory change (emissions/autonomous vehicles) with increased cost impacts.9087

    V2V (vehicle to vehicle) and V2I (vehicle to infrastructure) technologies will bring new competitors to the HD Aftermarket8489

    Co-opetition, i.e., competition betweensuppliers and customers, will increase.9592

    Channel competition will increase as OEMs and their dealers increasingly emphasize Parts and Service9797

    Telematics will create a big change in the future9290

    More suppliers will go direct to customers and by-pass distributors.5655

    Vision / Value PropositionDS

    In the future, we will increasingly have to compete primarily on the basis of price4841

    The HD Aftermarket will need to be more responsive to customer requirements and rapidly changing OEM specifications.10098

    The HD Aftermarket will need to maintain high availability of parts due to the proliferation of new components.10095

    Managing inventory assets cost effectively9892

    Avoiding obsolesence9578

    Being the lowest cost provider4427

    Service level requirements will increase the need for more capable staff and ongoing training.10089

    The right to repair could create value for the independent aftermarket distributor.9584

    Expand into service6453

    Broaden our product / service offering9297

    Work with marketing to develop a national fleet program4874

    Develop a group of customers who see the value of doing business with us9292

    We have a program to measure the success of our strategies6687

    Leadership, Strategy and OrganizationDS

    Distributors will need to develop their leadership capacity to respond to the rate and magnitude of change.95100

    Ability to attract and retain skilled people9595

    Continuous training and development9584

    Planning (strategic, tactical, financial, technology)9290

    Succession planning8682

    Product / Service SystemDS

    eCommerce8184

    Inventory management8992

    Tooling6634

    Profit SystemDS

    Access capital /credit5951

    Manage inventory8670

    Prevent margin erosion8973

    Provide the highest value added9792

  • Vision / Value Proposition D SIn the future, we will increasingly have to compete primarily on the basis of price 48 41Being the lowest cost provider 44 27The HD Aftermarket will need to be more responsive to customer requirements and rapidly changing OEM specifications. 100 98The HD Aftermarket will need to maintain high availability of parts due to the proliferation of new components. 100 95Managing inventory assets cost effectively 98 92Avoiding obsolesence 95 78Service level requirements will increase the need for more capable staff and ongoing training. 100 89The right to repair could create value for the independent aftermarket distributor. 95 84Expand into service 64 53Broaden our product / service offering 92 97Work with marketing to develop a national fleet program 48 74Develop a group of customers who see the value of doing business with us 92 92We have a program to measure the success of our strategies 66 87

    % Agreement

    41Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC

    Value Proposition

  • Leadership, Strategy and Organization D SDistributors will need to develop their leadership capacity to respond to the rate and magnitude of change. 95 100Ability to attract and retain skilled people 95 95Continuous training and development 95 84Planning (strategic, tactical, financial, technology) 92 90Succession planning 86 82

    % Agreement

    Shifts in Leadership, Vision, Strategy Organization

    Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. Funston Advisory Services LLC 42

    Future success will depend on:

    Sheet1

    Competitive EcosystemDS

    Smaller distributors will continue to be rolled up into larger groups8798

    Customers will merge and consolidate6597

    Continuing regulatory change (emissions/autonomous vehicles) with increased cost impacts.9087

    V2V (vehicle to vehicle) and V2I (vehicle to infrastructure) technologies will bring new competitors to the HD Aftermarket8489

    Co-opetition, i.e., competition betweensuppliers and customers, will increase.9592

    Channel competition will increase as OEMs and their dealers increasingly emphasize Parts and Service9797

    Telematics will create a big change in the future9290

    More suppliers will go direct to customers and by-pass distributors.5655

    Vision / Value PropositionDS

    In the future, we will increasingly have to compete primarily on the basis of price4841

    The HD Aftermarket will need to be more responsive to customer requirements and rapidly changing OEM specifications.10098

    The HD Aftermarket will need to maintain high availability of parts due to the proliferation of new components.10095

    Managing inventory assets cost effectively9892

    Avoiding obsolesence9578

    Being the lowest cost provider4427

    Service level requirements will increase the need for more capable staff and ongoing training.10089

    The right to repair could create value for the independent aftermarket distributor.9584

    Expand into service6453

    Broaden our product / service offering9297

    Work with marketing to develop a national fleet program4874

    Develop a group of customers who see the value of doing business with us9292

    We have a program to measure the success of our strategies6687

    Leadership, Strategy and OrganizationDS

    Distributors will need to develop their leadership capacity to respond to the rate and magnitude of change.95100

    Ability to attract and retain skilled people9595

    Continuous training and development9584

    Planning (strategic, tactical, financial, technology)9290

    Succession planning8682

    Product / Service SystemDS

    eCommerce8184

    Inventory management8992

    Tooling6634

    Profit SystemDS

    Access capital /credit5951

    Manage inventory8670

    Prevent margin erosion8973

    Provide the highest value added9792

    Shift Happens!How to think like Steve Jobs and be a Shift Disturberin the HD AftermarketSteve Jobs Chief Shift DisturberWW2 1997-2012Shifts in Strategic Business ModelsHindsights EasyNot First nor Last!OverviewHD Aftermarket IntelligencePresentation in Two PartsBusiness ModelBusiness ModelHeres What You Said HD Aftermarket Survey 2016Shifts in Competitive EcosystemShifts in Competitive EcosystemShifts in Products / ServicesShifts in Profit SystemProfit System Profit SystemShifts in Value PropositionShifts in Leadership and OrganizationShifts in Vision and StrategySlide Number 22Business Model WarsWarfareWaging Business Model WarfareSymmetric WarfareAsymmetric WarfareSlide Number 28Thinking Out of the BoxFrom Alpha Leaders to LosersWW3 2012-2017Slide Number 32Now What? Be a Shift Disturber Slide Number 35For further information:HD Aftermarket Survey HighlightsShifts in Competitive EcosystemSlide Number 39Slide Number 40Slide Number 41Shifts in Leadership, Vision, Strategy Organization