slides+notes (pdf) for 100yss 2012 session on vessel archives

Existential Risk, Human Survival,and the Future of Life in the Universe:

Interstellar Civilization through Vessel Archives

Heath Rezabek, [email protected]

100 Year Starship SymposiumSeptember 13-‐16, 2012. Houston, Texas.

ORIGINS / © Lucy West 2012 / Used by Permission

Heath Rezabek is the Teen Services Coordinator at the Austin Public Library, where he works with his staff to empower at-‐risk youth through media literacy. A librarian by career and calling, his session suggests a key role for archives in the 100 Year Starship Mission. However, Heath is here today as an individual and enthusiast: A writer, artist, and advocate for the 100YSS Mission. His other interests include community building, sustainable architecture, the mission of art, cosmology, the importance of the humanities, and the prospects for life in the universe. He unites these themes in his session: Existential Risk, Human Survival, and the Future of Life in the Universe: Interstellar Civilization through Vessel Archives.

( … Thank you. … )


Session slides available.

slideshare.net/heathrezabek

biota.cc/vessel-slides.pdf

Thank you.

Some quick notes before we begin.

Session slides available both on Slideshare and as a PDF from my own server.

( … These break-‐out slides will mention Brief highlights. … )

biota.cc/vessel.pdf

Exploring further...

Brief highlightsOnly a few key ideas could be covered in this 20 minute session. To save time, topics in breakout slides will not be explored in depth.

Refer to paper for detailsThe working Paper is 50 pages, and covers all key elements of this proposal. References are also cited there.

ContactInquiries and collaboration [email protected]

ORIGINS (Detail)

© Lucy West 2012 / Used by Permission

[email protected]

These break-‐out slides will mention Brief highlights.

Working Paper is longer -‐ 50 pages -‐ with more background than I can cover in 20 minutes. A link to the PDF is at bottom of these slides.

I welcome contact, inquiries, and collaboration via email.

( … As early as the January 2011 100 Year Starship Workshop, the mission had identified human survival as a key factor in its work. … )

EXOPLANET TRANSIT / ESA / Illustration by AOES Medialab 2003

As early as the January 2011 100 Year Starship Workshop, the mission had identified human survival as a key factor in its work.

The workshop recommended exploration of "ideas related to creating a legacy for the human species, backing up the Earth’s biosphere, and enabling long-‐term survival in the face of catastrophic disasters on Earth."

I hope to contribute a means for addressing all three of these goals in one effort.

So let’s begin with two key questions. The first of which is:

( … Are we alone? … )

The Fermi Paradox and The Great Silence


Are we alone?

Are we alone?

… Is life -‐-‐ living matter, whether simple or complex -‐-‐ common, or is it rare, in the observable universe?

( … The Kepler Mission and others tell us that there is no shortage of rocky worlds to be detected … )



Kepler and 0ther observations tell us that there is no shortage of worlds to be detected.

Billions of years for worlds to develop.Radiant life or von Neumann probes would need < 1 million years.Where are they?

This is the Fermi Paradox.The quiet in place of any other signs of life: the Great Silence.

The Kepler Mission and others tell us that there is no shortage of rocky worlds to be detected.

There’ve been billions of years for worlds to develop.

Radiant life or von Neumann probes would need as little as 1 million years to colonize the Galaxy.

Where are they?

This is the Fermi Paradox.

The quiet in place of any other signs of life has been termed the Great Silence.

biota.cc/vessel.pdf


Possible answers to the Fermi Paradox

Responsibility to strive,regardless of the unknown status of other life

EXOPLANET TRANSIT

ESA / Illustration by AOES Medialab 2003

Exploring further in the paper we have some Possible answers to the Fermi Paradox

... and we discuss our Responsibility to strive, regardless of the unknown status of other life

( … Is life widespread, or as uncommon as we seem to be? … )


EXOPLANET TRANSIT / ESA 2003 / Illustration by AOES Medialab

Is life widespread, or as uncommonas we seem to be?

Learning the truth through interstellar travel will take time.

We must foster a supporting—and surviving—interstellar civilization.

Is life widespread, or as uncommon as we seem to be?

Learning the truth through interstellar travel will take time.

In order to achieve our goal of interstellar travel, we must foster a supporting and surviving interstellar civilization.

( … This brings us to second key question … )

MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASA

This brings me to our second key question

( … Will we endure? … )


Existential Risk

Will we endure?

This brings me to our second key question

Will we endure?

( … We have given ourselves 100 years to achieve our primary goal, yet our endeavor could be cut short before that time has passed. The risk that we may not endure is termed Existential Risk. … )


Existential Risk

100 years to achieve our primary goal.Our endeavor could be cut short before that time has passed.

The risk that we may not endure is termed Existential Risk.

An existential risk is one that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-‐originating intelligent life or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development.

-‐ Nick BostromExistential Risk Prevention as the Most Important Task for Humanity (2011)

We have given ourselves 100 years to achieve our primary goal, yet our endeavor could be cut short before that time has passed. The risk that we may not endure is termed Existential Risk.

Nick Bostrom, Director of the Future of Humanity Institute, defines -‐

An existential risk is one that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-‐originating intelligent life, or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development.

The paper quoted here is an excellent treatment, found on his site, called “Existential Risk Prevention as the Most Important Task for Humanity.”

( … Now let’s notice that fragment -‐ “... destruction of its potential for desirable future development.” … )


Existential Risk

“... the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development.”

Survival alone is not enough.

In some cases, a surviving society may be brutalized, stagnant, or diminished irreparably. Bostrom’s 2011 classification sets aside discussion of particular causes.

Strict focus on outcomes helps us envision possible recovery scenarios.

Now let’s notice that fragment -‐ “... destruction of its potential for desirable future development.”

Survival alone is not enough. In some cases, a surviving society may be brutalized, stagnant, or diminished irreparably.

Bostrom’s 2011 classification sets aside discussion of particular causes.

( … Its strict focus on outcomes helps us envision possible recovery scenarios. … )


Existential Risk

Classification of Existential Risk

Human Extinction Humanity goes extinct prematurely, i.e., before reaching technological maturity.

Permanent StagnationHumanity survives but never reaches technological maturity. Subclasses: Unrecovered Collapse, Plateauing, Recurrent Collapse

Flawed RealizationHumanity reaches technological maturity but in a way that is dismally and irremediably flawed. Subclasses: Unconsummated Realization, Ephemeral Realization

Subsequent RuinationHumanity reaches technological maturity in a way that gives good future prospects, yet subsequent developments cause the permanent ruination of those prospects.


Its strict focus on outcomes helps us envision possible recovery scenarios.

Bostrom’s classification is notable for not being a laundry-‐list of extinction events. It points out two key outcomes in particular. I call these Dystopian Outcomes, as they’re unfavorable outcomes which continue indefinitely:

Permanent Stagnation -‐ Humanity survives but never reaches technological maturity or interstellar civilization.

Flawed Realization -‐ Humanity reaches technological maturity but in a way that is irredeemably flawed.

[ -‐-‐ I joke that, in the realm of Existential Risk, Dystopian outcomes are ones that only an existentialist could love. -‐-‐ ]

But What of the other two classes?

( … Human Extinction is exactly as it sounds, no different whether the cause is a sterilizing asteroid, a pandemic, or an unforeseen technology. … )


Existential Risk







Human Extinction is exactly as it sounds, no different whether the cause is a sterilizing asteroid, a pandemic, or an unforeseen technology.

( … Subsequent Ruination is a Far-‐future catch-‐all. Extinction at some point after we become interstellar is the least of our worries over the next 100 years. … )


Existential Risk







Subsequent Ruination is a Far-‐future catch-‐all. Extinction at some point after we become interstellar is the least of our worries over the next 100 years.

( … That leaves us the challenges of today: the risk of a deeply diminished legacy, to pass on to the stars. … )


Existential Risk







That leaves us the challenges of today: the risk of a deeply diminished legacy, to pass on to the stars.

Avoiding this outcome is the focus of my proposal.

( … So, Reminded of the need to foster our cultural capabilities beyond mere survival, let’s restate the January 2011 Workshop goal as an imperative: … )


Existential Risk

Imperative

To achieve an interstellar civilization while

addressing existential risk, we must do more than

survive: we must preserve our aspirations, our

capabilities, our cultural resources, and our

biodiversity.

So, Reminded of the need to foster our cultural capabilities beyond mere survival, let’s restate the January 2011 Workshop goal as an imperative:

To achieve an interstellar civilization while addressing existential risk, we must do more than survive: we must preserve our aspirations, our capabilities, our cultural resources, and our biodiversity.

( … What type of archive would answer to our Dystopian Outcomes -‐-‐ Permanent Stagnation or Flawed Realization? … )

DIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert)

Photo via Bradbury J: Nature's Nanotechnologists: Unveiling the Secrets of Diatoms. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e306. (CC-BY-2.5) 2004

What type of archive would answer to Permanent Stagnation or Flawed Realization?

Gregory Benford suggested one example in 1992, addressing catastrophic loss of biodiversity.

What type of archive would answer to our Dystopian Outcomes -‐-‐ Permanent Stagnation or Flawed Realization?

Gregory Benford suggested one example in 1992, addressing catastrophic loss of biodiversity.

( … The Library of Life proposal is a thought experiment on avoiding irreversible. … )

The Library of Life



The Library of Life proposal is a thought experiment on avoiding irreversible loss.

( … In it, he details... )

The Library of Life



The Library of Life: A thought experiment on avoiding irreversible loss of biodiversity.

A broad program of freezing species in threatened ecospheres could preserve biodiversity for eventual use by future generations. Sampling without studying can lower costs dramatically. […] Much more information than species DNA will be saved, allowing future biotechnology to derive high information content and perhaps even resurrect then-‐extinct species.

-‐ Gregory BenfordAbstract for “Saving the Library of Life” (1992)

In it, he details...

A broad program of freezing species in threatened ecospheres [that] could preserve biodiversity for eventual recovery by future generations. [Believing even then that we had no more time for the slow luxury of taxonomy, he recommended freezing flora and fauna in situ, their complex relationships as predator and prey intact. “Much more information than species DNA will be saved,” he wrote, “allowing future biotechnology to derive high information content -‐-‐ and perhaps even resurrect then-‐extinct species.”

( … The proposal was controversial, but galvanizing. Carl Sagan wrote in a letter to Benford … )

The Library of Life



Controversial, but galvanizing.

My main concern is that people will conclude that scientists have given up on preserving living biodiversity, or that future species extinctions are not so worrisome because we can always reconstitute the species and genera that we render extinct. But […] these potential obstacles can be circumvented: by stressing [...] that the very fact that such steps are being taken is an indication of how serious the problem is.

-‐ Carl SaganLetter to Benford in Deep Time (1999)

The Library of Life proposal was one of the deepest and earliest influences on my Vessel Archives proposal. It taught: We cannot be afraid to galvanize our efforts, when confronting existential risk.

The proposal was controversial, but galvanizing. Carl Sagan wrote in a letter to Benford

My main concern is that people will conclude that scientists have given up on preserving living biodiversity, or that future species extinctions are not so worrisome because we can always reconstitute the species […] that we render extinct. But […] these potential obstacles can be circumvented: by stressing [...] that the very fact that such steps are being taken is an indication of how serious the problem is.

When I first encountered the The Library of Life proposal, I was stunned by a glimpse of very-‐long-‐term thinking. It eventually contributed to my becoming a Librarian. So one of the deepest and earliest ideas to shape the Vessel Archive proposal comes from the Library of Life, and can stated by saying:

( … We cannot be afraid to galvanize our efforts, in confronting existential risk. … )

The Library of Life



What type of facility would be needed to carry a Library of Life, or house a cultural equivalent, over the very-‐long-‐term?

Cultural archives would require different methods, and the facility itself could take on as many different forms as there are cultures...

We cannot be afraid to galvanize our efforts, in confronting existential risk.

So, can we envision the type of facility would be needed to carry a Library of Life, or house a cultural equivalent, over the very-‐long-‐term?

Cultural archives would require different methods, and the facility itself could take on as many different forms as there are cultures.

( … Here I propose the Vessel Archive, a recombinant idea, drawing many efforts into one. … )

Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008

Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008 LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis

Vessel Archives

Here I propose the Vessel Archive, a recombinant idea, drawing many efforts into one.

In illustrating the Vessel Archive proposal, I am especially thankful to Philippe Steels, who granted permission to use his design visualizations for Lilypad, an oceanfaring hyperstructure by architect Vincent Callebaut.

( … These structures also share much in common with the original Arcology concepts of Paolo Soleri. … )



Vessel Archives

These structures also share much in common with the original Arcology concepts of Paolo Soleri.

Most hyperstructure projects, including Paolo Soleri’s Arcology proposals, are designed for large numbers of inhabitants (from 10,000 to millions). I propose applying these strategies on a more practical scale, in a limited-‐scope project.

So what is a Vessel Archive?

( … A Vessel Archive is a self-‐contained, sustainable habitat which fosters the traces of Earth's cultures and biomes. … )



Vessel Archives

A Vessel Archive is a self-‐contained, sustainable habitat, which harbors the traces of Earth's cultures and biomes.

These installations would serve in the near-‐term as examples of sustainability and as ambassadors for society's understanding of the 100 Year Starship Mission, and would serve in the long-‐term as protective vessels for humanity's aspirations, knowledge, and the traces of life itself.

Vessel Archives would be dedicated to their twin goals of education, and preservation.

A Vessel Archive is a self-‐contained, sustainable habitat which harbors the traces of Earth's cultures and biomes.

These installations would serve in the near-‐term as examples of sustainability and as ambassadors for society's understanding of the 100 Year Starship Mission, and would serve in the long-‐term as protective vessels for humanity's aspirations, knowledge, and the traces of life itself.

( … Vessel Archives would be dedicated to their twin goals of education, and preservation. … )



Vessel Archives

Vessel Archives would be dedicated to their twin goals of education, and preservation.

( … The term "vessel" describes our focused-‐purpose habitat in part through its several meanings. … )



Vessel Archives

Vessel (noun.)

The term vessel describes our focused-‐purpose arcology in part through its several meanings.

A vessel is a ship; a vehicle meant to ply the waters (on Earth), or the space between the stars.

A vessel is a container into which is poured something meant to be stored or carried.

A vessel is a conduit or a medium for transmission.

The term "vessel" describes our focused-‐purpose habitat in part through its several meanings.

A vessel is a ship; a vehicle meant to ply the waters (on Earth), or the space between the stars.

( … A vessel is a container into which is poured something meant to be stored or carried. … )



Vessel Archives

A vessel is a container into which is poured something meant to be stored or carried.

A vessel is a conduit or a medium for transmission.

( … The installation as a whole should be designed as self-‐sufficient, sustainable, and resilient in case of existential catastrophe. … )



Vessel Archives

The installation as a whole should be designed as self-‐sufficient, sustainable, and resilient in case of existential catastrophe.

Each Vessel Archive should be designed to harbor a diverse and interdisciplinary crew and staff of just a few thousand, per archive.

They would be colonies on Earth, dedicated to the legacy of life.

The installation as a whole should be designed as self-‐sufficient, sustainable, and resilient in case of existential catastrophe.

Each Vessel Archive should be designed to harbor a diverse and interdisciplinary crew and staff of just a few thousand, per archive.

( … They would be colonies on Earth, dedicated to the legacy of life. … )



Vessel Archives

They would be colonies on Earth, dedicated to the legacy of life.

( … One habitat for a few thousand will not solve our societal challenges or safeguard life on Earth. … )



Vessel Archives

One habitat for a few thousand will not solve our societal challenges or safeguard life on Earth. Connected communities of hundreds or thousands of Vessel Archives around the world, each sharing concrete methods for sustainable design with society at large, may do better...

One habitat for a few thousand will not solve our societal challenges or safeguard life on Earth.

( … But connected communities of many Vessel Archives around the world, each sharing concrete methods for sustainable design with society at large, may do better... ... )



Vessel Archives

But connected communities of many Vessel Archives around the world, each sharing concrete methods for sustainable design with society at large, may do better...

( … A Vessel Archive’s outer exhibits, clearly visible to a curious public, would house resources and environments introducing the 100 Year Starship Mission. … )



Vessel Archives

A Vessel Archive’s outer exhibits, clearly visible to a curious public, would house resources and environments introducing the 100 Year Starship Mission.

At the heart of a Vessel Archive would be labs for research and development, core collections, and sample banks of the cultural and biological records.

This core archive (like a Library of Life) could be replicated, and transferred in whole or in part to a 100 Year Starship, to serve as its memory of Earth.

A Vessel Archive’s outer exhibits, clearly visible to a curious public, would house resources and environments introducing the 100 Year Starship Mission.

At the heart of a Vessel Archive would be labs for research and development, core collections, and our sample banks of cultural and biological records.

( … This core archive (like a Library of Life) could be split or sampled, and transferred in whole or in part to a 100 Year Starship, to serve as its memory of Earth. … )



Vessel Archives

This core archive (like a Library of Life) could be split or sampled, and transferred in whole or in part to a 100 Year Starship, to serve as its memory of Earth.

But Vessel Archives themselves would remain after all other ships had launched, to ensure that humanity’s essence endured.

( … The Vessel Archive, carried out in many forms, would address the debilitating outcomes of existential risk: … )



Vessel Archives

The Vessel Archive, carried out in many forms, would address the debilitating outcomes of existential risk:

Permanent Stagnation; (Unrecovered Collapse; Plateauing; Recurrent Collapse)

Flawed Realization; (Unconsummated Realization; Ephemeral Realization)

Vessel Archives would also address the other two outcome classes.

The Vessel Archive, carried out in many forms, would address the Dystopian Outcomes of existential risk:

Permanent Stagnation and Flawed Realization.

Vessel Archives would also address the other two outcome classes, through Bruce Sterling’s concept of Deep Archival. This is detailed in the paper.

( … While the Lilypad habitat is an oceanfaring vessel, the example is for illustration only: A Vessel Archive does not need to be floating, or have any other single form. … )



Vessel Archives

While the Lilypad habitat is an oceanfaring vessel, the example is for illustration only: A Vessel Archive does not need to be floating, or have any other single form.

( … Many other approaches inform the Vessel Archive proposal, starting with the need to encourage hybrid vigor through an open specification … )

STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission

Many other approaches inform the Vessel Archive proposal, starting with the need to encourage hybrid vigor through an open specification...

biota.cc/vessel.pdf

Many other approaches inform the Vessel Archive proposal, starting with the need to encourage hybrid vigor through an open specification...

( … I propose the use of Creative Commons to seed an open specification on Vessel Archive designs. … )


Creative CommonsSeed several instances of open specification and resource sites to explore, detail, and document the creation of Vessel Archives, encouraging hybrid vigor.

biota.cc/vessel.pdf

I propose the use of Creative Commons to seed an open specification on Vessel Archive designs. A separate, licensed branch could allow for proprietary developments in parallel to public efforts. If you’re interested in helping either effort, or hosting such a site at your organization, please make contact.

( … Given the time, I’d explore how we could inspire the public with the 100 Year Starship Mission, through interactive exhibits at existing, familiar institutions: Museums, Planetariums, Arboretums, Observatories, Universities, Libraries... … )

The 100 Year Starship: Inviting Humanity

DAEDALUS ARRIVES / © Adrian Mann 2012 / Used by Permission

Given the time, I’d explore how we could inspire the public with the 100 Year Starship Mission, through interactive exhibits at existing, familiar institutions: Museums, Planetariums, Arboretums, Observatories, Universities, Libraries...

Given the time, I’d explore how we could inspire the public with the 100 Year Starship Mission, through interactive exhibits at existing, familiar institutions: Museums, Planetariums, Arboretums, Observatories, Universities, Libraries...

( … I’d discuss the many forms and formats we could use to convey the story of the 100 Year Starship Mission. … )

DAEDALUS SEPARATED

© Adrian Mann 2012 / Used by Permission

biota.cc/vessel.pdf


Many Forms and Formats possible for conveying the 100YSS Mission Story

Scenario-‐Gaming, Simulations, and Role-‐Play

I’d discuss the many forms and formats we could use to convey the story of the 100 Year Starship Mission.

I’d present immersive gaming as one way to engage people ...

( … in envisioning an interstellar civilization, and redetermining our role in the universe. … )

biota.cc/vessel.pdf


Becoming an Interstellar Civilization

Redefining our Cosmology

STAR MAP

© Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission

… in envisioning an interstellar civilization, and redetermining our role in the universe.

( … I’d detail architectural approaches we could use to build Vessel Archives as dedicated, multipurpose facilities. … )

EDEN PROJECT: TROPICAL BIOME / Photo via Steve Keiretsu (CC-BY-1.0) 2001

Biophilia and Biophilic Design: A Pattern Language

I’d detail architectural approaches we could use to build Vessel Archives as dedicated, multipurpose facilities.

I’d detail architectural approaches we could use to build Vessel Archives as dedicated, multipurpose facilities.

( … I’d propose possible applications of new dense archival methods, like the digital DNA sequencing recently developed by Church/Gao/Kosuri. … )

biota.cc/vessel.pdfDIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert)



Binary DNA Data SequencingRecent work (Church/Gao/Kosuri 2012) is discussed, along with possible applications.

I’d propose possible applications of new dense archival methods, like the digital DNA sequencing recently developed by Church/Gao/Kosuri.

( … I’d discuss the influence of architect Paolo Soleri’s architectural ecologies -‐-‐ or Arcologies -‐-‐ on the concept of Vessel Archives. … )

biota.cc/vessel.pdf

In the Paper...

Arcology (Paolo Soleri, 1969)Compact and integrated installations as self-‐contained cities.

biota.cc/vessel.pdfFrom ARCOLOGY: The City in the Image of Man

© Paolo Soleri 1969 / Used by Permission

I’d discuss the influence of architect Paolo Soleri’s architectural ecologies -‐-‐ or Arcologies -‐-‐ on the concept of Vessel Archives.

( … And the possibilities of Biophilic Design and Pattern Languages for very-‐long-‐term habitats on Earth and in space. … )

biota.cc/vessel.pdfbiota.cc/vessel.pdf THORNCROWN CHAPEL (E. Fay Jones)

Photo via Bobak (CC-BY-SA-2.5) 2006


The Biophilia Hypothesis and Biophilic Design

Pattern Languages (Christopher Alexander)

And the possibilities of Biophilic Design and Pattern Languages for very-‐long-‐term habitats on Earth and in space.

( … I’d cover the implications for Icarus Interstellar’s Project Hyperion and Project Persephone, both devoted to interstellar habitats. … )

biota.cc/vessel.pdfbiota.cc/vessel.pdfLILYPAD /


Visualization © Philippe Steels 2008

Visualization Used by Permission


100YSS: Icarus Interstellar Project HyperionResearch on very-‐long-‐term habitat design factors.

100YSS: Icarus Interstellar Project PersephoneResearch on evolving architecture for very-‐long-‐term and extrasolar habitat design.

(Biophilic Design, Pattern Languages, Arcology / habitats: All applicable.)

I’d connect these approaches to Icarus Interstellar’s Project Hyperion and Project Persephone, both devoted to interstellar habitats.

( … And introduce solutions preserved in vernacular architecture, as a form of embedded cultural archival. … )

biota.cc/vessel.pdf


Preservation of Cultural Architecture and Vernacular Pattern LanguagesCase study: Traditional Japanese architectural solutions and patterns.

BAMBOO

Photo via Alijava (CC-BY-SA-2.5) 2012


And introduce solutions preserved in vernacular architecture, as a form of embedded cultural archival.

( … I’d look at precursors to very-‐long-‐term thinking, such as the 10,000 Year Clock of the Long Now Foundation, or Bruce Sterling’s entreaty towards Deep Archival. … )

biota.cc/vessel.pdf


The Long Now Foundation10,000 Year Clock to encourage very-‐long-‐term thinking.

Deep ArchivalBruce Sterling on very-‐long-‐term archival.

CLOCK OF THE LONG NOW (Long Now Foundation)


I’d look at precursors to very-‐long-‐term thinking, such as the 10,000 Year Clock of the Long Now Foundation, or Bruce Sterling’s entreaty towards Deep Archival.

( … And I’d pose the ultimate design challenge, of launching an interstellar starship from a Vessel Archive installation, with a core Vessel Archive as its memory of Earth. … )

biota.cc/vessel.pdf


Mission launch capability as deep design goal

Core Vessel Archives as cargo on 100YSS ships

biota.cc/vessel.pdf


And I’d pose the ultimate design challenge, of launching an interstellar starship from a Vessel Archive installation, with a core Vessel Archive in its cargo.

( … All of these things are explored in the working paper for this session. … )


biota.cc/vessel.pdf

All of these things are explored in the working paper for this session.

( … But none of these things matter, in the absence of a 100 year answer -‐-‐ to this: … )


But none of these things matter,in the absence of a 100 year answer

to this:

But none of these things matter, in the absence of a 100 year answer -‐-‐ to this:

PALE BLUE DOT / NASA / JPL 1990

We recognize this as the Pale Blue Dot -‐-‐ our fragile self-‐portrait, Earth as captured by Voyager I, looking back towards home, in 1990.

( … After 20 years of searching and synthesis, the Vessel Archive proposal, is the very best I have to give, in answer. But I hope that, together, we can do still better, because the Great Silence awaits our response. … )



After 20 years of searching and synthesis, the Vessel Archive proposal, is the very best I have to give, in answer. But I hope that, together, we can do still better, because the Great Silence awaits our response.

( … )

James Webb Space Telescope Mirror 37 / NASA / MSFC / David Higginbotham / Emmett Given 2010

( … We began with the Great Silence, and so we will end, by considering the Great Filter. … )

The Great Filter


( … We began with the Great Silence, and so we will end, by considering the Great Filter. … )


The Great Filter

We began with the Great Silence, and end by considering the Great Filter.

The Great Silence implies that one or more of these steps [from organic stellar material to expansive interstellar life and colonization] are very improbable; there is a “Great Filter” along the path between simple dead stuff and explosive life. The vast majority of stuff that starts along this path never makes it. [...] The fact that our universe seems basically dead suggests that it is very hard for advanced explosive lasting life to arise.

-‐ Robin HansonThe Great Filter -‐ Are We Almost Past It? (1998)

We began with the Great Silence, and so we will end, by considering the Great Filter.

The Great Filter is a kind of probability barrier.

As Robin Hanson describes, this idea follows from the Great Silence and implies that some step or series of steps -‐-‐ from the dawn of organic material to the spread of expansive life -‐-‐ is highly unlikely -‐-‐ If it weren’t, traces of life beyond Earth should be commonplace.

( … If the Great Filter is an apt analogy, we do not know whether it is in our past, in our future, or whether we are still being tested -‐-‐ strained and filtered -‐-‐ by it. It may be that the Great Filter is a technological step, or series of them. … )


The Great Filter

If the Great Filter is an apt analogy, we do not know whether it is in our past, in our future, or whether we are still being tested -‐-‐ strained and filtered -‐-‐ by it. It may be that the Great Filter is a technological step, or series of them.

Perhaps it is the passage from control of fire to interstellar flight. We should hope that it lies far further back than that, in the transition to simpler life forms.

( … For finding even simple life beyond the Earth might imply that the Great Filter is not so far behind us. Whatever the case, we must do our best to endure. … )

STEM CELLS / © Douglas B. Cowan 2012 / Used by Permission

For finding even simple life beyond the Earth might imply that the Great Filter is not so far behind us. This argument, made by Nick Bostrom, is explored in the paper.

Whatever the case, we must do our best to endure.

( … The stakes are high, but the possible future benefits of our work are also vast, when considering the long-‐term potential of our interstellar civilization. … )

Countless Generations to Come


The stakes are high, but the possible future benefits of our work are also vast, when considering the long-‐term potential of our interstellar civilization.

( … Nick Bostrom explains that, in order to understand the loss of an existential catastrophe, we’d have to understand the value of its absence. … )

Countless Generations to Come


The stakes are high, but the potential future benefits of undertaking this work are also vast, when considering the long-‐term potential of our interstellar civilization.

To calculate the loss associated with an existential catastrophe, we must consider how much value would come to exist in its absence. It turns out that the ultimate potential for Earth-‐originating intelligent life is literally astronomical. […] The relevant figure is not how many people could live on Earth but how many descendants we could have in total. ... Even if we use the most conservative of […] estimates, […] we find that the expected loss of an existential catastrophe is greater than the value of 1018 human lives. This implies that the expected value of reducing existential risk by a mere one millionth of one percentage point is at least ten times the value of a billion human lives.


Nick Bostrom explains that, in order to understand the loss of an existential catastrophe, we’d have to understand the value of its absence. He calculates the number of descendants the human race could have. Even the most conservative estimates show the value as greater than 10^18 human lives. He concludes “...that the expected value of reducing existential risk by a mere one millionth of one percentage point...” is at least ten billion human lives.”

( … And just thinking of these things, as we are here today, must surely count for something. … )



And just thinking of these things, as we are here today, must surely count for something.

My hope is that we will have reduced the chances of existential catastrophe—and increased the chances of humanity fulfilling its potential—by at least one millionth of one percent.

I have detailed one model—the Vessel Archive—among, perhaps, many.

( … I hope that this work, and others like it, unleash a flood of collaborative efforts to piece together as many paths to interstellar civilization as we can imagine. … )



I hope that this work will help spark others like it, unleashing a flood of collaborative efforts to piece together as many paths to interstellar civilization as we can imagine.

Thank you.

Questions?

( “The most astounding fact ... is the knowledge ... )


“The most astounding fact ... is the knowledge that the atoms that comprise life on Earth, the atoms that make up the human body, are traceable to the crucibles that cooked light elements into heavy elements in their core ... under extreme temperatures and pressures. These stars ... went unstable in their later years. They collapsed and then exploded, scattering their enriched guts across the galaxy. Guts made of carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, and all the fundamental ingredients of life itself. These ingredients become part of gas clouds that condense, collapse, form the next generation of solar systems—stars with orbiting planets—and those planets now have the ingredients for life itself. So that when I look up at the night sky, and I know that—yes—we are part of this universe, we are in this universe... But perhaps more important than both of those facts, is that the universe is in us. When I reflect on that fact, I look up—many people feel small, because they're small and the universe is big; but I feel big. Because my atoms came from those stars.”

-‐ Neil deGrasse TysonTIME: 10 Questions for Neil deGrasse Tyson.


“The most astounding fact ... is the knowledge that the atoms that comprise life on Earth, the atoms that make up the human body, are traceable to the crucibles that cooked light elements into heavy elements in their core ... under extreme temperatures and pressures. These stars ... went unstable in their later years. They collapsed and then exploded, scattering their enriched guts across the galaxy. Guts made of carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, and all the fundamental ingredients of life itself. These ingredients become part of gas clouds that condense, collapse, form the next generation of solar systems—stars with orbiting planets—and those planets now have the ingredients for life itself. So that when I look up at the night sky, and I know that—yes—we are part of this universe, we are in this universe... But perhaps more important than both of those facts, is that the universe is in us. When I reflect on that fact, I look up—many people feel small, because they're small and the universe is big; but I feel big. Because my atoms came from those stars.”

-‐ Neil deGrasse TysonTIME: 10 Questions for Neil deGrasse Tyson.

slides+notes (pdf) for 100yss 2012 session on vessel archives

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