Studije mira, FPN, 3. mart 2016.

Mapiranje

savremenihsukobaitroškovinaoružanja

NemanjaDžuverović

Oružani sukobi

Mir – sukob – nasilje Definicija oružanih sukoba

Vrste sukoba (po akterima, uzrocima i teritoriji) Novi ratovi

Trendovi u sukobima Broj sukoba po akterima

Sukobi po vrsti nekompatibilnosti Distribucija oružanih sukoba po regionima

Zone rata i mira Žrtve sukoba

Poginuli u oružanim sukobima Troškovi naoružanja Izdavanja za naoružanje

Porast troškova za naoružanje Izvoz i uvoz naoružanja

Oružani sukobi

Svet u 2011

Mir–nasilje–sukob

MIR�  nega3van-pozi3van�  trajni(samoodrživ)-privremeni�  kazneni-velikodušniNASILJE�  direktno(fizičkonasilje)�  strukturalno(eksploatacija,represija,dominacija,siromaštvo)�  kulturno(simboličkoopravdanjedirektnogistrukturalnognasilja)SUKOB�  simetrični-asimetrični�  latentni-manifestni�  oniokojimasemože/nemožepregovara3

Definicije oružanih sukoba

Oružanisukobizmeđudvedržavekojiuključujeangažovanjevojnihsnaganaobestraneinajmanje1000poginulihkaoposledicavojnihaktivnosti.

(SingeriSmol1972)Oružanisukobkaoposledicanekompatibilnostikojasetičeteritorijeilivlasti,gdesuangažovanedvestranepričemujejednaodnjihobaveznodržavaigdejekrajnjiishodnajmanje25poginulihkaoposledicavojnihaktivnosti

(ValerstiniSolenberg2001)

Vrste sukoba (po akterima)

Tradicionalnapodela

I.MeđunarodnisukobiA.SukobiizmeđudržavaB.Ekstra-sistemskisukobi 1.kolonijalni 2.imperijalni

II.Civilniratovi(Sarkes2010)

Proširena(nova)2pologijaI.SukobiizmeđudržavaII.Ekstrasistemskisukobi

A.SukobsakolonijomB.Imperijalnisukob(državavsnedržavnien3tet)

III.SukobiunutardržavaA.Civilnisukobi 1.kontrolacentralnevlas3 2.nekomp.lokalnogkarakteraB.Regionalno-unutrašnjisukobiC.Inter(među)komunalni

IV.Nedržavnisukobi

A.Nanedržavnojteritoriji B.Izmeđudržavnihgranica

Vrste sukoba (po uzrocima)

I.Revolucionarno-ideološkisukobiA.kapitalizam-socijalizam(Nikaragva,Nepal)B.diktatura-demokra3ja(Libija)C.sekularska-islamskadržava(Iran,Avganistan)

II.Sukobiokoiden2tetailiteritorijeA.pristupcentralnojvlas3(Sirija,Mali)B.autonomija(Sudan,SriLanka,Pakistan)C.secesija(Nigerija,Indonezija)

III.FrakcionalnisukobiA.poli3čkamoć(Liberija,SijeraLeone)B.ekonomskiresursi(DRKongo) (Ramsbothametal.2011)

Vrste sukoba (prema teritoriji koju zahvataju) - 1

�  Totalniratovi(čitavodruštvouratu;ratpro3včitavogdruštva)

�  Prvisvetskirat(rathemičara)�  32državei20milionažrtava�  novaoružja(tenkovi,podmornice…)�  opštaregrutacija,kontrolanadmedijimainaukom�  opšteuništavanjeprirodnihspomenika

�  Drugisvetskirat(ratfizičara)�  60milionažrtava�  strateškobombardovanjegradova(Drezden,Tokio,Roterdam…)�  koncetracionilogori�  nuklearnabomba,pobedačovekanadprirodom�  upotrebanaukeuvojnesvrhe�  propaganda

Vrste sukoba (prema teritoriji koju zahvataju) - 2 �  Hladnirat

�  sukobdvablokabezdirektnekonfrontacije,proxywars�  stalnapripremazarat�  trkaunaoružanju,naročitonuklearnom�  strahodspoljnjegneprijatelja,blokovskiiden3tet�  težnjazaglobalnimprimatom�  psihološkeposlediceodnuklearnepretnje,strahodnestanka.

�  Ograničeni/pravedniratovi�  ograničenizadržavekojeneučestvuju(Korejskopoluostrvo)�  vladajuodređenapravila(jusadbellumijusinbello)�  savremenikontekst

�  pravedanrazlog(samoodbrana)�  odlukuoratudonosinadležnotelo(SB)�  nasiljesekoris3kaoposlednjesredstvo�  ratneproizvodivećezlo�  responsibilitytoprotect-R2P

Novi ratovi - 1

�  Postmodernirat�  mašinezamenjujuvojnike�  ubijanjesadistance,nemaborbeprsauprsa�  većaubojitost,brzina,preciznost,oružja�  Informacijakaoključnivojniresurs/stratosferapostaječetvr3front�  manipulacijamedijama(CNN,Fox)

�  Ratpro2vglobalnogterorizma�  akterinisuvezanizadržavuiodređenuteritoriju�  organizovanisuuglobalnumrežu�  upotrebanajsavremenijegoružja�  polaganjesopstvenihživota�  ćelijespavači�  intervencijeuAvganistanuiIraku�  trajnirat?

Novi ratovi - 2

�  Ratovitrećevrste-KaleviHolsO,MeriKaldor�  novaciresursikaomo3v�  nove,tribalne,ideologije�  mobilizacijapomoćustraha,religijeikorupcije�  decavojnici,plaćenici�  podrškamafije,dijasporeiregionalnihsila�  novaratnaekonomija�  greedandgrievence

�  Kapilarnirat-HansMagnusEncesberger�  bezideologijeiliprograma�  spontaniunutrašnjisukobibandi,nacistahuliganaisl.�  praznaagresijabezpravila�  životgubivrednost

Trendovi u sukobima

Broj konflikata po vrsti aktera, 1946-2010

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No.

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Armed Conflict by Type, 1946-2014 Extrastate Interstate Internationalised Intrastate

© UCDP 2015

Sukobi po vrsti nekomatibilnosti, 1946-2010

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Armed Conflicts by Incompatibility, 1946-2014 Territory&Government Territory Government

© UCDP 2015

Broj oružanih sukoba po regionima, 1946-2010

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Armed Conflict by Region, 1946-2014

Europe Americas Middle East Africa Asia

© UCDP 2015

Zone rata i mira

Bezbednosnezajednice�  jakedržave�  SevernaAmerika,ZapadnaEvropa

Zonemira

�  stabilnedržave�  Karipskaostrva,Okeanija,IstočnaEvropa

Zonene-rata

�  nestabilnedržave�  JugoistočnaiistočnaAzija,JužnaAmerika

Zonerata

�  neuspeledržave �  Afrika,bivšiSSSR,BliskiIstok,CentralnaAmerika,JužnaAzija,Balkan

(HolsO1996)

Žrtve sukoba

Poginuli u oružanim sukobima, 1946-2005

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

1946

1948

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Battle-deaths

Poginuli u oružanim sukobima, 1900-2005

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

4500000

5000000

1900

1903

1906

1909

1912

1915

1918

1921

1924

1927

1930

1933

1936

1939

1942

1945

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2005

Battle-deaths

Bethany&Gleditsch

(Bethany&Gleditsch2005)

Kineskigrađanski 1946–1949 1,200,000Korejskirat 1950–1953 1,254,811Vijetnam 1955–1975 2,097,705Avganistan 1978–2002 562,995Iran–Irak 1980–1988 644,500

Troškovi naoružanja

Izdvavanja za naoružanje

Naoružanje u brojkama

�  U2014.nijedošlodoznačajnijerpovećanjatroškova(padod2012)�  Troškoviukupnoiznose1776milijardidolara,

�  2.3%svetskogBDP�  245dolarapoosobi

�  PorastprodajezbogkrizeuUkrajiniiratauSiriji,aliizaustavljanjezbogpadacenenage�  najvećiporastzabeleženuAfrici,IstočnojEvropiiBliskomIstoku

�  USADzabeleženpadtroškovazanaoružanje�  dos3gnutistorijskimaksimum?

Izdavanja za naoružanje po zemljama

2 sipri fact sheet

THE TOP 15 MILITARY SPENDERS IN 2013

There was only one change in the list of countries comprising the world’s top  15 military spenders in 2013, with Canada dropping out, to be replaced by Turkey (see table 1). There were also several changes in order. Most notably, Saudi Arabia climbed from seventh to fourth place, having increased its military spending by 14 per cent in 2013. Among the lar gest spenders, Saudi Arabia has by far the highest mili-tary burden—that is, military spending as a share of GDP. At 9.3 per cent, it is also the second highest (after Oman) for any country for which SIPRI has recent data. Along with Saudi Arabia’s rise, the United Kingdom has fallen out of the top 5 spend-ers, although revised figures for 2011 and 2012 show that the UK had already fallen to sixth place then, probably for the first time since World War II.

Military spending by the USA declined by 7.8  per cent in real terms in 2013, to $640 billion. A part of the fall ($20 billion of the $44 billion nominal fall) can be attributed to the reduction in outlays for Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO)— that is, overseas military oper ations, chiefly in Afghanistan and Iraq.

China’s spending increased by 7.4 per cent in real terms. While China has been behaving more asser-tively in recent years in territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea, and with the Philippines and Viet Nam in the South China Sea, these height-ened tensions do not seem to have changed the trend in Chinese military spending, which represents a long-term policy of rising military spending in line with economic growth.

Russia’s spending increased by 4.8 per cent in real terms, and its military burden exceeded that of the USA for the first time since 2003. Russia’s spend-ing has risen as it continues to implement the State Armaments Plan for 2011–20, under which it plans to spend 20.7 trillion roubles ($705 billion) on new and upgraded armaments. The goal is to replace 70 per cent of equipment with ‘modern’ weapons by 2020.

While South Korea and Turkey also increased their spending, military spending fell in France, the

Table 1. The 15 countries with the highest military expenditure in 2013Spending figures are in US$, at current prices and exchange rates. Figures for changes are calculated from spending figures in constant (2012) prices.

Rank

CountrySpending, 2013 ($ b.)

Change, 2004–13 (%)

Spending as a share of GDP (%)a

2013 2012 2013 2004

1 1 USA 640 12 3.8 3.92 2 China [188] 170 [2.0] [2.1]3 3 Russia [87.8] 108 [4.1] [3.5]4 7 Saudi Arabia 67.0 118 9.3 8.15 4 France 61.2 -6.4 2.2 2.66 6 UK 57.9 -2.5 2.3 2.47 9 Germany 48.8 3.8 1.4 1.48 5 Japan 48.6 -0.2 1.0 1.09 8 India 47.4 45 2.5 2.8

10 12 South Korea 33.9 42 2.8 2.511 11 Italy 32.7 -26 1.6 2.012 10 Brazil 31.5 48 1.4 1.513 13 Australia 24.0 19 1.6 1.814 16 Turkey 19.1 13 2.3 2.815 15 UAEb [19.0] 85 4.7 4.7

Total top 15 1 408

World total 1 747 26 2.4 2.4

[ ] = SIPRI estimate.a The figures for military expenditure as a share of gross domestic product

(GDP) are based on data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook database, Oct. 2013.

b Data for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is for 2012, as figures for 2013 are not available.

N

ea

rly four-fif

ths of all military expenditure in 2013 was made by 15 states

USA, 37%

Others, 21%

UAE, 1.1%Turkey, 1.1%

Australia, 1.4%

Brazil, 1.8%

Italy, 1.9%

South Korea, 1.9%

India, 2.7%

Japan, 2.8%

Germany, 2.8%

UK, 3.3%France, 3.5%

Saudi Arabia, 3.8%

Russia, 5.0%China,11%

Just

2 s

tate

s m

ade

near

ly ha

lf of a

ll milita

ry expenditure

Figure 2. The share of world military expenditure of the 15 states with the highest expenditure in 2013

Promena u uzdvajanjima za naoružanje po regionima

military spending and armaments 15

and early 2000s, this trend has slowed in the past 5–10 years, in particular in Africa and the Middle East. Analysis of data availability according to diff erent country characteristics shows that civil liberties and levels of political freedom are strongly correlated with the availability of good quality military expenditure data, while state fragility is associated with a severe drop in data availability and quality. National income, however, is not a signifi cant factor in explaining data availability, once the other two factors have been controlled. •

t h e r e p ort i ng of m i lita ry e x pe n dit u r e data t o t h e u n

The United Nations Report on Military Expenditures remains an important source for offi cial data on military expenditure. However, the response rate of UN member states to the annual request to submit data decreased in 2014, reversing an increase in 2013. The overall response rate remains low at 25 per cent. The political sensitivity of military expenditure may be a primary reason for not reporting in some cases, but many states make their military budgets available online to the general public. Equally, the fact that many countries have responded at least once suggests that they have the capacity to report, but they may lack the resources or political commitment to respond consistently.

ch a nge s i n m i lita ry e x pe n dit u r e , by r e gion , 2 01 3 –14

Change in military expenditure (%)–8 –6 –4 –2 0 2 4 6 8 10

Middle East

Western and Central EuropeEastern Europe

Oceania

South East AsiaEast Asia

Central and South Asia

Latin AmericaNorth America

Sub-Saharan Africa

North Africa

–10

World

Porast troškova naoružanja (2001-2010)

Najveci uvoznici i izvoznici naoružanja

several of the top 10 suppliers of major arms, as recorded by SIPRI, have not reported to UNROCA every year and a number of the largest importers have been absent for all fi ve years.* Participation from some regions has been consistently low in recent years, particularly from Africa and the Middle East.

Arms transfers to confl ict zones and non-state actors

Arms supplies to countries involved in armed confl ict and to non-state forces became a key issue in 2014. Suppliers had to make decisions on transfers to Iraq and other states involved in the war against the Islamic State, including supplies to militias not fully under the control of the central Iraqi Government. The confl ict in Ukraine also led to discussions among Western countries on the issues surrounding the supply of arms to the Ukrainian Government.

military spending and armaments 17

t h e m a i n e x p ort e r s a n d i m p ort e r s of m a jor w e a p ons , 2 010 –14

Global Exporter share (%)1. USA 312. Russia 273. China 54. Germany 55. France 56. UK 47. Spain 38. Italy 39. Ukraine 310. Israel 2

Global Importer share (%)1. India 152. Saudi Arabia 53. China 54. UAE 45. Pakistan 46. Australia 47. Turkey 38. USA 39. South Korea 310. Singapore 3

The fi nancial value of states’ arms exports, 2013*

While SIPRI data on arms transfers does not represent their fi nancial value, many arms exporting states do publish fi gures on the fi nancial value of their arms exports. Based on such data, SIPRI estimates the total value of the global arms trade in 2013 to be at least $76 billion. However, the true fi gure is likely to be higher.

Arms production and military services, 2013*

The sales of arms and military services by the SIPRI Top 100—the world’s 100 largest arms-producing and military services companies (excluding China), ranked by their arms sales—totalled $402 billion in 2013. This is a decrease of 2 per cent in real terms compared to Top 100 revenues in 2012, continuing the decline that started in 2011, but at a slower rate. •

t h e 10 l a rge st a r m s -produci ng c om pa n i e s , 2 01 3

Arms sales Profi t Company ($ m.) ($ m.) 1 Lockheed Martin 35 490 2 981 2 Boeing 30 700 4 585 3 BAE Systems (UK) 26 820 275 4 Raytheon 21 950 2 013 5 Northrop Grumman 20 200 1 952 6 General Dynamics 18 660 2 357 7 EADS (trans-Europe) 15 740 1 959 8 United Technologies 11 900 5 721 9 Finmeccanica (Italy) 10 560 98 10 Thales (France) 10 370 761

Companies are US-based, unless indicated otherwise. Figures are US$. The profi t fi gures are from all company activities, including non-military sales.

* The latest year for which data is available.

Udvostruceni porast troškova (2004-2013) 6

sipri fact sheet

Honduras $$$

Swaziland $$

Cambodia $$

Ghana $$$

Armenia $$Georgia $$$

Afghanistan $$$$$$

Paraguay $$

Namibia $$

Belarus $$

Bahrain $$

Ecuador $$

Kazakhstan $$$

Viet Nam $$

Azerbaijan $$$$$

Argentina $$

Angola $$

Iraq $$$ Oman $$Algeria $$

China $$

Russia $$

Saudi Arabia $$

Figure 4. The countries that doubled military spending between 2004 and 2013 Notes: $$ indicates that the country’s military spending doubled (or more), $$$ that it tripled (or more), $$$$ that it quad rup led (or more) and $$$$$ that it quintupled (or more), all in real terms.  indicates that the country is a significant oil producer in relation to the size of its economy. In most cases,  indicates that the country experienced (state-based) war or minor armed conflict or non-state conflict during the period 2004–13, as defined by the UCDP Conflict Encyclopedia, <http://www.ucdp.uu.se/>. The exception is Armenia, where it refers to the frozen conflict with Azerbaijan over Ngorno-Karabakh.

Zbirgodinatokomkojihsudržaveaktivnoučestvovaleuoružanimsukobima1946-2005.* Human Security

Report Project

Literatura

Kaldor, Mary (2007). New and Old Wars: Organized Violence in a Global Era. 3rd ed., Cambridge, UK: Polity Press (parts 3 & 4).

Ramsbotham, Oliver, Woodhouse, Tom and Miall, Hugh (2011). Contemporary Conflict Resolution, 3rd ed., Cambridge: Polity Press (pp.63-93)

Sarkees, Meredith Reid and Wayman, Frank Whelon, 2010. Resort to War: A Data Guide To Inter-State, Extra-State, Intra-State, And Non-State Wars, 1816–2007. Washington DC: CQ Press (pp.39-75).

SIPRI (2012). SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarment and International Security. Stockhol: SIPRI

Lotta Themner & Peter Wallensteen (2012). Armed Conflicts, 1946–2011. Journal of Peace Research 49 (4), 565–575.

Wallensteen, Peter (2012). Understanding Conflict Resolution: War, Peace and Global System, 3rd ed., London: Sage Publications (pp.13-28, 85-239).

Williams, D. Paul, 2008. War in Paul D. Williams, ed., Security Studies. New York: Routledge (pp.151-171).

Grafikoni i mape preuzeti sa sajtova:

www.miniatlasofhumansecurity.info

www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/graphs/charts_and_graphs.htm

www.prio.no

www.mondediplo.com

www.sipri.org

www.prio.no/upload/970/Monitoring%20trends%20in%20global%20combat%20EJP.pdf

www.heritage.org/Research/InternationalOrganizations/bg2006.cfm