Small pelagic fish responses to future climate change

Ito S. et al. (2010) Ocean ecosystem responses to future global change scenarios: A way forward, In: M. Barange, J.G. Field, R.H. Harris, E. Hofmann, R. I. Perry, F. Werner (Eds) Global Change and Marine Ecosystems. Oxford University Press., 287-322, pp440.

Shin-ichi Ito & Takeshi Okunishi (FRA)

Reviewed fish responses to future climate change.

Recently published several papers relating fish responses to future climate change.

1. Ito S., T. Okunishi, M. J. Kishi and M. Wang (2013) Modelling ecological responses of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) to future climate change and its uncertainty, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 70, 980-990.

2. Yatsu A., S. Chiba, Y. Yamanaka, S. Ito, Y. Shimizu, M. Kaeriyama, and Y. Watanabe, 2013, Climate forcing and the Kuroshio/Oyashio ecosystem, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 70, 922-933.

3. Okunishi T., S. Ito, T. Hashioka, T. T. Sakamoto, N. Yoshie, H. Sumata, Y. Yara, N. Okada, Y. Yamanaka, 2012: Impacts of climate change on growth, migration and recruitment success of Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) in the western North Pacific, Climatic Change.

Ito S., T. Okunishi, M. J. Kishi and M. Wang (2013) Modelling ecological responses of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) to future climate change and its uncertainty, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 70, 980-990.cv

30 cm

Distribution of Pacific saury in June-July 2007(FRA surface trawl survey) Catch of Pacific saury

Ito et al. (2013)

Pacific saury widely distribute in the North Pacific.It is exploited in several countries and an international fish.

NEMURO.FISHNEMURO for Including Saury and Herring

Megrey et al. (2007a, Ecol. Model.), Ito et al. (2004b Fish. Oceanogr.) etc.

nutrient

phyto

zoo

fish

wet weight of saury

Ensemble experiment with 12 IPCC-SSTs (A1B senario)

• Control run (1950-1999)

3 categories1) reduction of weight in the 1st and 2nd years

ccsm3, gfdl20, mirocH,mirocM, mpi, ukhadcm3

2) reduction of weight in the 2nd yearcccmat47, cccmat63, gfdl21, miub

3) no decrease (or increase) of weightpcm1, mri

Ito et al. (2013, ICES J. Mar. Sci.)

3 emission scenariosSaury decreased their weight in 24 cases in 33 cases (73%).Egg production was enhance in 11 cases in 33 cases (33%)

Dependency on emission scenarios

　 A2 A1B B1

ukhadcm3 1st&2nd year decrease 1st&2nd year decrease 1st&2nd year decrease

mirocH 1st&2nd year decrease 1st&2nd year decrease

mirocM 1st&2nd year decrease 1st&2nd year decrease 2nd year decrease

cccm3 2nd year decrease 1st&2nd year decrease 2nd year decrease

mpi 2nd year decrease 1st&2nd year decrease no decrease

gfdl20 no decrease 1st&2nd year decrease

miub 1st&2nd year decrease 2nd year decrease 2nd year decrease

cccmat63 2nd year decrease no decrease

ccmat47 2nd year decrease 2nd year decrease no decrease

gfdl21 no decrease 2nd year decrease 2nd year decrease

mri 2nd year decrease no decrease 2nd year decrease

pcm1 no decrease no decrease no decreaseIto et al. (2013, ICES J. Mar. Sci.)

2 categoriesreduction of weight in the 1st year

ccsm3, gfdl20, mirocH, mirocM, mpi, ukhadcm3

no decrease or increase of weightcccmat47, cccmat63, gfdl21,miub, pcm1, mri

With future SST & current zooplankton

Ensemble experiment with only SST forcingA1B

• Control run (1950-1999)

no decrease in second year

SST effects only on juvenile’s growth.

Ito et al. (2013, ICES J. Mar. Sci.)

Yatsu A., S. Chiba, Y. Yamanaka, S. Ito, Y. Shimizu, M. Kaeriyama, and Y. Watanabe, 2013, Climate forcing and the Kuroshio/Oyashio ecosystem, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 70, 922-933.

Published contributions of CFAME activity. Summarize the climate effects on the Kuroshio/Oyashio ecosystems.

Spawning regions

Area-1Area-2

Area-3Area-4

Control-RUN

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Area-1Area-2Area-3Area-4 0%

20%40%60%80%

100%

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Area-1Area-2Area-3Area-4

Fig. Proportion of hatched numbers in the four spawning regions

CO2-RUNOkunishi et al. (2012), Climatic Change

Spawning grounds of Japanese sardine

ProjectionSpawning grounds shifts to north-eastward.

Low HighRelative density

Control-RUN CO2-RUN

Spring

Summer

Change in Geographical Distribution

Age 1

Age 1

Okunishi et al. (2012), Climatic Change