speech upward slope
TRANSCRIPT
The Flat Horizon Problem
Mike Treder, Executive DirectorCenter for Responsible Nanotechnology
nanotechnology on an upward slope
Stand by the ocean, looking out. It is rare in nature to find a truly flat line, but that’s what the horizon appears to be.
Of course, the horizon is not a flat line.
It curves, but gradually,
and itisn’t easy
for usto detect
the curve.
In truth, it’s not a line at all, because
the earth has no edge.
We can understand, though, why many premodern societies believed the earth to be flat, with an edge somewhere.
After all, that’s how it looks.
Now, stand in the present, looking toward the future. Does it look pretty much like today, except more modern?
In reality, the future holds many changes: some transformative, some beneficial, and
some dangerous.
The most disruptive future changes may occur as a result of molecular manufacturing, an
advanced form of nanotechnology.
The Intuitive Linear View
Time
Change
The problem is human perspective, what Ray Kurzweil calls the “Intuitive Linear View.” When we see something that looks like a straight line, we naturally assume that it is. Although change occurs around us every day, unless we look closely we may not notice it. So, we logically think that last week, last month, and last year were like today, and that next year and a few years after that won’t be much different either.
Now, stand on the rails of a roller coaster, just before the climb up the highest hill
(in your imagination only!).
To an ant, the track looks totally flat, like it goes on flat forever.
The ant can’t see far enough.
In reality, the track gradually curves upwards.
Walk up the track toward the big hill. The further you go, the steeper the curve becomes. If you look back, it’s clear how high you have ascended.
But crouch down for the ant’s eye view again, and what do you see?
Leave the roller coaster now and
come back to reality.
Stand up really tall, peer back into history, and imagine how things seemed from the Intuitive Linear View…
1974
"It will be years, not in my time, before a woman will become
Prime Minister.“
1974:
— Margaret Thatcher
Graphic Rendition of a Desktop NanofactoryCourtesy of John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios
2005: No such thing as molecular manufacturing.
The idea that nothing really changes… It’s simple to see how wrong this is,
but it’s easy to slip into.
As for nanotechnology’s transformative
and disruptive impacts, we’re on the
roller coaster heading toward the
big climb. Progress is occurring
every day, taking us closer,
even if we don’t notice the
gradual incline. Soon,
however, the curve
will sharpen and
take us rapidly into
a future for which
we may not
be prepared.
The Coming Nanotechnology
Revolution
Not just new products — a new means of production
Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing systems — exponential proliferation
Accelerated product improvement — cheap rapid prototyping
Affects all industries— general-purpose technology
Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital cost — economic discontinuity
Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption
Impacts will cross borders — global transformation
Computers
BIG STEPS in Economic, Social, and Political History
Time
Change Automobiles
Railways
Steam Engines
Socie
tal
Im
pacts
Time
Accelerated Impacts
Industrial Revolutions
Molecular Manufacturing
Revolution
Socie
tal
Im
pacts
Time
The Next Big Step
Steam Engines
Computers
Railways
Automobiles
(Middle Ages)
Socie
tal
Im
pacts
Time
Steam Engines
Computers
Railways
Automobiles
(Middle Ages)
Nanotechnology
The Next Big Step
Nanotechnology
Socie
tal
Im
pacts
Time
The Next Big Step
Steam Engines
Computers
Railways
Automobiles
(Middle Ages)
Now is the time to stand up, get out of the Intuitive Linear View, avoid the Myth of Perpetuation, and observe the upward curve…
Once we have gained perspective, we can begin to make wise
decisions for a better and safer nano future!
Nanotechnology on an Upward Slope
Mike TrederCenter for Responsible
Nanotechnology