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The Flat Horizon Problem Mike Treder, Executive Director Center for Responsible Nanotechnology nan otechnology on an upward slope

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The Flat Horizon Problem

Mike Treder, Executive DirectorCenter for Responsible Nanotechnology

nanotechnology on an upward slope

Stand by the ocean, looking out. It is rare in nature to find a truly flat line, but that’s what the horizon appears to be.

Of course, the horizon is not a flat line.

It curves, but gradually,

and itisn’t easy

for usto detect

the curve.

In truth, it’s not a line at all, because

the earth has no edge.

We can understand, though, why many premodern societies believed the earth to be flat, with an edge somewhere.

After all, that’s how it looks.

Now, stand in the present, looking toward the future. Does it look pretty much like today, except more modern?

In reality, the future holds many changes: some transformative, some beneficial, and

some dangerous.

The most disruptive future changes may occur as a result of molecular manufacturing, an

advanced form of nanotechnology.

But if the future really will be so different from today, why doesn’t it look that way from here?

The Intuitive Linear View

Time

Change

The problem is human perspective, what Ray Kurzweil calls the “Intuitive Linear View.” When we see something that looks like a straight line, we naturally assume that it is. Although change occurs around us every day, unless we look closely we may not notice it. So, we logically think that last week, last month, and last year were like today, and that next year and a few years after that won’t be much different either.

Now, stand on the rails of a roller coaster, just before the climb up the highest hill

(in your imagination only!).

Ant

Crouch down low, until your eye is even with the track. Get an ant’s eye view…

To an ant, the track looks totally flat, like it goes on flat forever.

The ant can’t see far enough.

In reality, the track gradually curves upwards.

Standing up, you, the human, can see the slope ahead and the

smooth incline of the track.

Walk up the track toward the big hill. The further you go, the steeper the curve becomes. If you look back, it’s clear how high you have ascended.

But crouch down for the ant’s eye view again, and what do you see?

The ant sees more flat track, whether looking forward or back.

Leave the roller coaster now and

come back to reality.

Stand up really tall, peer back into history, and imagine how things seemed from the Intuitive Linear View…

1885:No such thing as automobiles or airplanes.

1885: The British Empire

will last forever.

1926

1926: No such thing as television or cable.

1926: The stock market will rise forever.

1957:No such thing as communications satellites or the

Berlin Wall.

Cuba

1957:The sunny business

partnership between Cuba and the USA will prosper

forever.

1967: No such thing as desktop computers or cell phones.

Kennedy & King

1967:Martin Luther King and Bobby Kennedy

will be leaders for decades to come.

1974

 

"It will be years, not in my time, before a woman will become

Prime Minister.“

1974:

— Margaret Thatcher

1986: No such thing as the World Wide Web.

1986: The Soviet Union and the Cold War will last forever.

1995

1995:Spam is a luncheon

meat.

1995

1995:Terrorism is

something bad that happens to someone else .

2005

Graphic Rendition of a Desktop NanofactoryCourtesy of John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios

2005: No such thing as molecular manufacturing.

Current socio-political conditions and structures will last forever.

2005:

The idea that nothing really changes… It’s simple to see how wrong this is,

but it’s easy to slip into.

As for nanotechnology’s transformative

and disruptive impacts, we’re on the

roller coaster heading toward the

big climb. Progress is occurring

every day, taking us closer,

even if we don’t notice the

gradual incline. Soon,

however, the curve

will sharpen and

take us rapidly into

a future for which

we may not

be prepared.

The Coming Nanotechnology

Revolution

Not just new products — a new means of production

Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing systems — exponential proliferation

Accelerated product improvement — cheap rapid prototyping

Affects all industries— general-purpose technology

Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital cost — economic discontinuity

Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption

Impacts will cross borders — global transformation

Computers

BIG STEPS in Economic, Social, and Political History

Time

Change Automobiles

Railways

Steam Engines

Time

Change

BIG STEPS in Economic, Social, and Political History

Not Steps, but S-Shaped Curves

Time

Change

Time

Change

Not Steps, but S-Shaped Curves

Time

Change

Not Steps, but S-Shaped Curves

Socie

tal

Im

pacts

Time

Industrial Revolutions

Socie

tal

Im

pacts

Time(Measured in decades)

Industrial Revolutions

Socie

tal

Im

pacts

Time(Measured in YEARS)

Nanotechnology Revolution

Socie

tal

Im

pacts

Time

Accelerated Impacts

Industrial Revolutions

Molecular Manufacturing

Revolution

Socie

tal

Im

pacts

Time

The Next Big Step

Steam Engines

Computers

Railways

Automobiles

(Middle Ages)

Socie

tal

Im

pacts

Time

Steam Engines

Computers

Railways

Automobiles

(Middle Ages)

Nanotechnology

The Next Big Step

Nanotechnology

Socie

tal

Im

pacts

Time

The Next Big Step

Steam Engines

Computers

Railways

Automobiles

(Middle Ages)

Now is the time to stand up, get out of the Intuitive Linear View, avoid the Myth of Perpetuation, and observe the upward curve…

Once we have gained perspective, we can begin to make wise

decisions for a better and safer nano future!

Nanotechnology on an Upward Slope

Mike TrederCenter for Responsible

Nanotechnology

[email protected]