steelmaking raw materials & sea freight outlook · 2016. 3. 29. · 2009년6월4일 5 gdp vs...

Steelmaking Raw MaterialsSteelmaking Raw Materials& Sea Freight Outlook& Sea Freight OutlookCommittee on Raw Materials

Presentation to the OECD Steel Committee, Paris, June 8-9, 2009

2009년 6월 4일 2

Content

Global GDP Scenario

Steel Market

Seaborne Iron Ore Market

Seaborne Metallurgical Coal Market

Coke Market

Sea Freight Market

Summary

2009년 6월 4일 3

Global GDP Scenarios 2009-2013

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Ann

ual C

hang

e of

GD

P

Base Case Low Case High Case

• World GDP in 2009 may exhibit the worstrecession over the past60 years.

• A moderate recovery might be achieved afterthe strong negativegrowth in 2009

• In the worst case, worldGDP might report a lowgrowth at around 2%through 2013

Forecast

Sources: Oxford Economics, IMF, WB, team analysis

2009년 6월 4일 4

Content

Global GDP Scenario

Steel Market



Coke Market

Sea Freight Market

Summary

2009년 6월 4일 5

GDP vs Crude Steel Production

• Historically, the crude steel production has been more volatile than GDP in growth rate

• In 2009-10, the global steel industry may strongly overact globalGDP performance. Global crude steel production is expected to grow by 8.1% in 2010after a strong drop of 14.2% in 2009

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

GDP Crude steel productionForecast

Gro

wth

Rat

e

Sources: Various & worldsteel RAMCO Expert Group

2009년 6월 4일 6

Crude Steel Production

151 182222

280353

419495 500699 722 748 788 793

831 849 829

848 850904

970

10691146

12501344 1330

11401233

12851350

1418

468 491 521 546

127

570720

804764

672741

848

0100200300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,800

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mill

ion

Tonn

es

China ROW World(Base Case numbers shown)

Forecast


• Driven by the global financial crisis, world crude steel production may bottom at 1.14 bntonnes in 2009, and might not come back to the 2007 level until 2012

• China is expected to outperform ROW in recovery of steel production

2009년 6월 4일 7

Pig Iron Production

147 171214

257

337404

471

431 440 456 467 464 477 475

578611

670724

801

881946 927

1016

471

541

445 467 495 519

131

456 475450428

377 415

445

821882

923969

576

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mill

ion

Tonn

es

China ROW World(Base Case numbers shown)

Forecast • The global pig iron production is expected to follow the trend in crude steel production

• With a projected slightly negative growth in 2009, China’s recovery in pig iron production is likely to be faster than ROW


2009년 6월 4일 8

Content

Global GDP Scenario

Steel Market



Coke Market

Sea Freight Market

Summary

2009년 6월 4일 9

Seaborne Iron Ore Demand

446 446479

517

584

655

722775

819

723778

827

927

866

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mill

ion

Tonn

es

Forecast


Others

China

Japan

EU (15)

• Caused by the worldwide cutback in steel production, seaborne iron ore demand may contractby 11.7% or 96 mmt in 2009, which is 136 mmtlower than the figure in the last update

• From 2010, world seaborne iron ore demand is expected to grow by over 40 mmtevery year through 2013

2009년 6월 4일 10

China’s Iron Ore Consumption by Source

133 136 136 144 152 152 154 167 203 212270

340393 368

307 333 353 367 37245 46 59 56 60 70 92 111

148208

275

326

383 444

403423

449 468 493

178 182 195 200 212 222 246278

351

420

545

666

776812

710756

802835

865

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

199519

96199719

981999200020

01200220

0320

04200520

06200720

082009201020

11201220

13

Mill

ion

Tonn

es

Forecast

Imports

Domestic(Fe equivalent to

imported ore)

• Assuming some high-cost domestic mines might retreat from the market, China’s domestic iron ore production is projected to fall significantly in 2009

• It is likely that the domestic production until 2013 would not surpass that in 2007


2009년 6월 4일 11

Seaborne Iron Ore Supply

477 478510 524

583

667

731770

835861 882 901

9671,031

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mill

ion

Tonn

es

Forecast


Others

Australia

Brazil

• Assuming more than 50% of announced iron ore expansion plans in Australia and Brazil will be delayed or cancelled through 2013, the growth pace of global seaborne iron ore supply may slow down during 2009-2011 compared to 2004-2008

• The growth pace is expected to pick up again from 2012

2009년 6월 4일 12

Seaborne Iron Ore Supply/Demand

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mill

ion

Tonn

es


Forecast

SUPPLY

DEMAND

• A remarkable oversupply is foreseeable for the coming years, especially in 2009-10

• It’s suggested that oversupply may continue through 2013, although the demand in high case is projected to ramp up closer to the expected supply

2009년 6월 4일 13

Content

Global GDP Scenario

Steel Market



Coke Market

Sea Freight Market

Summary

2009년 6월 4일 14

Seaborne Metallurgical Coal Demand

182 178 178187

201 204 207216 220

182

203

237

259 265

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mill

ion

Tonn

es

Forecast


EU (15)

Japan

Korea

India

S. America

Others

• Seaborne demand of met coal may drop by 17% or 38 mmt in 2009.

• The seaborne demand is forecast to bounce back to the 2008 level in 2011

• Future growth in demand is expected in Asia and South America in accordance with new iron-making capacity expansions

• Uncertainty remains with China’s potential demand from new steel plants in coastal areas

2009년 6월 4일 15

Seaborne Metallurgical Coal Supply

238

218212206196

188183190187

244227222

262279

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mill

ion

Tonn

es

Forecast


Australia

Canada

USAChinaRussiaOthers

• USA played a major role as a swing source in 2008 by exporting 10 mmtmore than 2007

• Projected capacity expansion would be delayed 2 yrs or more due to expecteddecline in demand

• Suppliers may take a more cautious approach before proceeding on future capacity expansions

2009년 6월 4일 16

Seaborne Met Coal Supply/Demand

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mill

ion

Tonn

es

SUPPLY

DEMAND

Forecast


• In 2009, massive oversupply in met coal is expected due to decrease in demand caused by projected steel production cut

• Market is projected to be balanced or tight again in 2011/12 due to recovery in demand and suppliers’cautious step to control over capacity expansion

2009년 6월 4일 17

Content

Global GDP Scenario

Steel Market



Coke Market

Sea Freight Market

Summary

2009년 6월 4일 18

World Coke Production (All Uses)

346 345 355387

425468

514545

571

511 529549

570601

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Milli

on T

onne

s Co

ke

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Milli

on T

onne

s Pi

g Iro

nSources: Various & worldsteel RAMCO Expert Group

India

Forecast

Europe

China

Asia w/o China & India

CISOthers

World Pig Iron Production • Growth of world cokeproduction is basically in line with pig ironproduction growth

• With the rising trend in steelmaking towards the blast furnace method driven by China, the major growth in coke supply will continue in China

2009년 6월 4일 19

Coke Seaborne Sources

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mill

ion

Tonn

es

Asia exc China China Europe CIS N. America Other

Forecast


• The seaborne trade is expected to contract with new steelmaking projects, except China, being supported by coke making capacity

- Trending towards more self sufficiency

- Coke demand within China also increasing

2009년 6월 4일 20

Content

Global GDP Scenario

Steel Market



Coke Market

Sea Freight Market

Summary

2009년 6월 4일 21

Sea Freight Market

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Jan-

00Ma

y-00

Sep-

00Fe

b-01

Jun-

01Oc

t-01

Mar-0

2Ju

l-02

Dec-0

2Ap

r-03

Sep-

03Ja

n-04

May-0

4Se

p-04

Jan-

05Ju

n-05

Oct-0

5Fe

b-06

Jun-

06Oc

t-06

Mar-0

7Ju

l-07

Nov-0

7Ap

r-08

Aug-

08De

c-08

Baltic Dry Index Baltic Cape Index• In 2008, freight market broke all records in terms of the highs and lows

• At the end of 2008 the BDI closed at 774 points, after it had peaked at 11,793 points on 20 May, 2008

• The market started with a very pessimistic view in 2009, and outlook for the coming years has been deteriorated as well

Sources: Baltic Daily Index

2009년 6월 4일 22

Capesize Age Profile & OrderbookStatus

• Average capesize vessel age is 16.4 years(> +20 years: 16.6%)• Orderbook of more than existing capacities is scheduled for the next 5 years- however, to what extent the delivery will be materialized?

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0-4 years 5-9 years 10-14 years 15-19 years 20+ years

Num

ber o

f ves

sels

Capesize (100-250kdwt) VLOC (>250kdwt)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mill

ion

DW

T

Capesize (100-250kdwt) VLOC (> 250kdwt)

Capesize Age Profile Orderbook Status

[Total: 146 m. DWT][Total: 162 m. DWT]

Sources: Clarkson, SSY & worldsteel RAMCO Expert Group

2009년 6월 4일 23

Capesize Market Supply/Demand

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mill

ion

Tonn

es

DEMAND

SUPPLY(lifting capacity, assuming 40%

cancellation in orderbook)

Forecast • A huge oversupply is foreseeable in capesizemarket from 2009 through 2013, although a cancellation of 40% in orderbook is assumed already

• In 2009, reduced vessel queue due to weak demand of raw materials is expected to increase the surplus further


2009년 6월 4일 24

Content

Global GDP Scenario

Steel Market



Coke Market

Sea Freight Market

Summary

2009년 6월 4일 25

Summary

The gloomy global economic outlook suggests a strong decline in steel production in 2009, and might not come back to the 2007 level until 2012.

An obvious oversupply is projected in seaborne iron ore and metallurgical coal trade during 2009-2010.

A surplus in cape-size fleet balance is also expected even under the assumption of 40% cancellation scenario of new built fleet on order book.

In case demand recovers and supply cannot ramp up to meet the recovery, uncertainty remains risky in iron ore and metallurgical coal seaborne market.

2009년 6월 4일 26

worldsteel RAMCO Expert Group

Mrs. Shiromi Brell BlueScope SteelMr. Akira Satoh Nippon Steel Mr. Yong Ren BaosteelMr. Ja Hyun Koo POSCOMr. Frank Zhong worldsteel

To contact us:

steelmaking raw materials & sea freight outlook · 2016. 3. 29. · 2009년6월4일 5 gdp vs...

Documents