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MOBILE HAS CROSSED THE CHASMIPad is the “Quicken” of Mobile - First digital product easier to use than physical alternative

Quicken and Scott Cook Case Study

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ISAAC ASIMOV’S “ULTIMATE CASSETTE”In 1973, Isaac Asimov described the ultimate

content delivery device

“The controls [are intuitive] ” – as opposed to physical knobs & switches.

“It can be carried with you wherever you feel most comfortable viewing it – in bed, in the bathroom, in a tree, in the attic.”

All its functionality would be embedded in the actual device

Asimov concluded: “And this technology is, of course, the printed book”

It took until 2010 for a device to be introduced that is more user-friendly than books.

“

The Ancient and the Ultimate”, Asimov, Isaac, Journal of Reading, January 1974, pp. 264-271

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HISTORICAL INFORMATION TECH REVOLUTIONS Gutenberg’s Printing Press (1450)

WWW (1990 – present)

Mobile Computing (present to future)

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WHAT WOULD DRUCKER DO?PETER DRUCKER

Invented Management as a Discipline

Invented Term “Knowledge Worker”

Predicted Russo-German Pact

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THE RISE & FALL OF PRINTER ROCK STARS  At the peak of the Dotcom era, Drucker forecast the future of IT

based on the 100 years after Gutenberg’s invention of the printing press and movable type in 1450.

For most of that century, the new gurus of printing technology became fabulously wealthy and famous, the Mark Zuckerberg’s of their day.

BUT ….“By 1580 or so, the printers, with their focus on technology, had become ordinary craftsmen…their place was soon taken by what we now call publishers…people and firms whose focus was no longer on the ‘T’ in IT but on the ‘I’.”

The Next Information Revolution, by Peter Drucker, Forbes, August 24, 1998

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THREE BIGGEST FALLACIES OF DOTCOM ERA Build it and they will come – Works only

once

Star Trek Business Models – Works if you possess Warp Drive and Transporter - Successful Killer Apps Automate Rather Than Eliminate. Like Spreadsheet

Technology over Workflow – Peoplesoft, ADP and the Septic Tank Metaphor

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THREE LESSONS FOR MOBILE Production in all industries moves from Craft to

Mass to Lean - “The Machine That Changed the World”

Workflow trumps cool What is the purpose of your mobile tech:

Information Consumption (Initial Growth, will slow as %) Transactions Decision Support (Growing)

Analytics rule Micro (workflow optimization) Macro (Predictive)

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POWER OF THREE

Currently three simultaneous technology revolutions

Mobile Cloud Big Data

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?

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/2012

INNOVATIONS MAY PRECEDE ENABLING TECHNOLOGIESAdvances in scientific theory or even process innovation often stall for decades before they are enabled by technology advancements.

Charles Babbage’s 1822 invention of the “Difference Engine”, the first programmable computer, was a curiosity for nearly 150 years before Intel.

The moon landing of 1969 used German rocket technology from World War Two, but would not have been possible without the latest mainframe computers.

Global weekly news magazines of the 20th century like Time and Newsweek depended on Gantt charts AND airplanes

Michael Saylor’s “Query Tone” – Unworkable in late 90’s, now Big Data

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IMPACT OF INFORMATION TECH REVOLUTIONS

IT Revolution

Immediate Impact Long Term Impact

Gutenberg’s Printing

Press

“Printers” were Rock Stars of Europe100’s of Printers replaced 100,000 Monks

Protestant Reformation – Lutheranism Age of Discovery - Columbus (maps, fundraising and PR)

World Wide Web

Dotcom BoomRise and Fall of Webmasters

Increase in “Clockspeed” of every industry Fall of Mainstream Media

Mobile Computing

Mobile UbiquityAngry Birds

Higher Education will be transformed - MOOCSHealth Care will be transformed from focus on treating illness to maintaining health.

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SUMMARY

There is a long history of disruptive information technologies impacting societies and commerce.

In every information technology revolution, from Gutenberg to today, a brief period of technological focus is followed by a reversion to business basics, with standardized technologies allow efficiencies previous impossible.

Successful technologies automate routine work, allowing more time and resources for higher level activities

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