sub-saharan africa desk - development economics 2014

DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS – SUMMER 2014Teacher: Dr. Magnús Árni Magnússon

Students: Annika Borgert, Friðrik Þór Gestsson, Helena Dögg Haraldsdóttir and Sigurður Kaiser

THE FUTURE OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yv0QojpEq8w

THE FUTURE OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

1. Regional Overview2. UN Millennium Development Goals3. Somalia – Case Study4. South Africa – Case Study5. Somalia vs South Africa – Comparison6. Altruism + Solutions

Contents of today’s presentation

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICARegional overview

Somalia

A Regionof Wild

Contrasts


Two Definitions of Sub-Sahara• Geographically: Countries that fully lie south of the Sahara• Politically: Countries that fully & partially lie south of the Sahara

(United Nations, n.d.)

A Region of Wild Contrasts


Physical geography • Lowland basins• Highland plateaus• Tropical savanna zones


Wet summer season

& dry winter season!


Human geography • Islam vs. Christianity & Animism

- Sahel as cultural transition zone



Population distribution • 750 million people• Site-specific concentrations

- Good combination of soils

- Proximity to the ocean

- Presence of major river delta



Colonial history• Several different colonial powers

- Britain- France- Portugal- Spain- Italy- Belgium



(Kelly, n.d.)


Contested Notion!• High human skin color diversity• No linguistic,

ethnical,political,religious,economic uniformity!

“Black” Africa?


1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

2. Universal education

3. Gender equality

4. Child mortality

5. Maternal health

6. Combat deceases

7. Environmental sustainability

8. Global partnership for development

Status of UN Millennium Goals


Status of UN Millennium Goals

SOMALIACase Study

FAMINE/HUNGER

SOMALIACase Study

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdISzV9Ifao

PIRACY

SOMALIACase Study

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdGhwmlQV-w

SOMALIACase Study

“I want people to know there is more to Somalia than looting and piracy.”

Michael Palin

“The long-term solution in preventing another famine in Somalia is to promote self-reliance.”

Hawa Abdi

“I think the biggest challenge for Somalia has been the sense that it

is a hopeless case of incomprehensible internal conflicts

and there is nothing we can do.”Jan Egeland

Quotes about Somalia

SOMALIACase Study

• Official Name: Federal Republic of Somalia

• Governance: Parliamentary Republic

• Official Languages: Somali and Arabic

• Currency: Somali shilling

• Capital: Mogadishu

• Size: 637,657 km²

• Population: 10,5 million

(Central Intelligence Agency, n.d.)

Basic Facts about Somalia

SOMALIACase Study

• 1875–1941: Occupations by Egypt, France, Britain & Italy

• 1956: Italian Somaliland renamed Somalia and granted internal autonomy

• 1960: British and Italian parts of Somalia become independent, merge and form the United Republic of Somalia (Disputes with Kenya & Ethiopia 1963)

• 1960: President Abdi Rashid Ali Shermarke’s (1967) assassination

• 1970: Socialism & Nationalization

• 1974–1975: Drought & Starvation

History of Somalia

SOMALIACase Study

• 1977: Somalia invades the Somali-inhabited Ogaden-region of Ethiopia (War until 1988)

• 1991: Civil War ongoing

• 1998: Puntland region declares autonomy, several changes in the Somali government, Somali warlords declining the government

• 2001: Drought & UN appeal for food aid

• 2004: 14th attempt to restore a central Somali government, exile until 2005, assassination attempt, Tsunami

History of Somalia

SOMALIACase Study

• 2006: Fights between rival militias, Ethiopian troops in Somalia, War, suicide bombing attempt, escape from drought & Islamists to Kenya

• 2007: US airstrikes

• 2008–2009: Prime minister resigns, African Union, UN & Red Cross fight growing humanitarian crisis, piracy, state of emergency

• 2009–2011: Al-Shabab rebels conquer parts of Somalia & Famine

• 2011: Intervention (Kenya, Ethiopia & US)

• 2012: New parliament & government

History of Somalia

INSTABILITY

SOMALIACase Study

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4tMJxi3sDE

SOMALIACase Study

Demography of Somalia

44.00%

18.90%

31.20%

2.30%2.30%

Age distribution:

0 to 1415 to 2425 to 5455 to 6465 to and up

• Ethnic Groups: 85% Somalis, 15% Benadiris, Bantus, and other non-Somalis

SOMALIACase Study

Demography of Somalia Population pyramid (10,5 million)

SOMALIACase Study

Demography of Somalia• Median age: 17.7 years (29.4 world)

• Population growth rate: 1.75 (1.1 world)

• Birth rate: 41/1000 (18.9/1000 world)

• Death rate: 14/1000 (7.9/1000 world)

• Life expectancy: 51,5 years (69 world, rank 217/223)

• Total fertility rate: 6 born/woman (2.45 world)

(2014 est./CIA)

SOMALIACase Study

Demography of Somalia

• People living with HIV/AIDS: 31.200

• HIV/AIDS deaths: 2.500

• Maternal mortality rate: 1.000/100.000 (3rd in the world)

• Infant mortality rate: 100.14/1000 (37.61 world)

• Children underweight: 32,8% (10th in the world)

• Very high risk of getting major infectious diseases(2012 est./CIA)

SOMALIACase Study

GDP 1960-1990

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

$-

$200,000,000.00

$400,000,000.00

$600,000,000.00

$800,000,000.00

$1,000,000,000.00

$1,200,000,000.00

59.30%

7.20%

33.50%

GDP - composition, by sector of origin:

agricultureindustryservice

SOMALIACase Study

Labor force (1975):

• 71% Agriculture

• 29% Industry and service

Economic Development

SOMALIACase Study

Imports:• Manufactures, petroleum, foodstuffs, construction materials, qat

• 2010 est.: $1.263 billion (2006 est.: $798 million)

• Djibouti, India, Kenya, China, Pakistan, Oman, UAE, Yemen


Exports:• Livestock, bananas, hides, fish, charcoal scrap metal

• 2012 est.: $ 515.8 million

• United Arab Emirates (UAE), Yemen, Oman

SOMALIACase Study

• GINI Coefficient: No database has any GINI-info on Somalia

• Human Development Index: 0.285 (strikingly low, probably ranking 165 out of 170 countries)

• Poverty rate: 82% (73% live on less than 2 dollars pr. day)

• Literacy: 37,8% (84.1% world)

• Child Labor: 49% (children ages 5-14)

• School life expectancy rate: 2,5 years (12 years world)

• Low or none GDP growth (numbers not available)


SOUTH AFRICACase Study


WILD NATURE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wANxOcPs7A

• Official Name: Republic of South Africa

• Governance: Parliamentary Republic

• Official Languages: Afrikaans, Northern Sotho, English, Northern Ndebele, Southern Sotho, Swazi, Tsonga, Tswana, Venda, Xhosa, Zulu

• Currency: South African Rand

• Capitals: Pretoria (president/cab), Cape Town (legis), Bloemfontein (sup court)

• Size: 1,221,037 km², 25th largest country

• Population: 53 million, 24th most populous nation

• 6 million living with HIV/AIDS, 18% of population (Ground Zero for AIDS)


Basic facts about South Africa


MANDELA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nL8Qmznec2o


History of South Africa• Cradle of Humankind, oldest archaeological site (UNESCO)

• Modern Humans for at least 170.000 years, strong indigenous peoples

• European Colonisation, Portugal, The Dutch, France

• Great Britain took Cape of Good Hope 1795

• Sovereign from United Kingdom 1931

• National Party in Power 1948, people classified into three races

• Freedom Charter 1955, demanding non-racial society

• Republic May 31st 1961, no more queen Elisabeth


History of South Africa• Apartheid (legally institutionalized segregation)

• White minority enjoyed highest standard of living

• Black majority disadvantaged, in every aspect of life

• African National Congress, major resistance movement

• Nelson Mandela in prison for 27 years, F. W. de Klerk in power

• ANC wins elections in 1994, Mandela becomes president

• ANC still in power today, Jacob Zuma president from 2009

• Nelson Mandela dies December 5th 2013

APARTHEID



Demography of South Africa

• Ethnic Groups: 79,2% Black, 8,9% Colored, 8,9% White, 2,5% Indian/Asian, 0,5% Other 28.30%

20.20%

38.20%

6.30%

6.10%

Age distribution:

0 to 1415 to 2425 to 5455 to 6465 to and up


Demography of South Africa Population pyramid (48 million)


GDP 1960-2012

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

$-

$50,000,000,000.00

$100,000,000,000.00

$150,000,000,000.00

$200,000,000,000.00

$250,000,000,000.00

$300,000,000,000.00

$350,000,000,000.00

$400,000,000,000.00

$450,000,000,000.00

GDP 353.9 billion USD (2012)


• Long Term unemployment extending for a year or longer

• Percent of total unemployment (30% in 2010)

Unemployment

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Long term Unemployment in S. Africa in %

Female Male


• Quality education costs, but the poor are left behind

• Iceland spends 7,6% of GDP in Education (2010)

Education

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20094.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

5.35.2

5.1

5.3 5.3 5.35.2

5.1

5.5

6.0

Public spending on education, total (% of GDP)


• Gender equality strong in the parliament

• 35% women in average in the parliament, 44% last three years

• Iceland 42,9% 2009, 39,7% 2013

Women in Power

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

29.8 29.8 29.832.8 32.8 32.8 33 33

44.5 44.542.3


• GINI Coefficient: 67,4 (2006) and 63,1 (2009)

• Human Development Index: 0,608 (rank 121/186)

• Life expectancy rate at birth: 49 years (69 world, rank 222/223)

• Population growth rate: -0,48% (CIA, rank 222/223), 1.34% (SA)

• Literacy: 93% (84.1% world)

• Unemployment rate: 51,5% (youth ages 15-24)

• GDP growth: 2,5% (2012), estimated to rise in 2015 and 2016



WORLD CUP 2010

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRpeEdMmmQ0

SOMALIA vs SOUTH AFRICAComparison

GDP per capita 1960-1990

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

$- $500.00 $1,000.00 $1,500.00 $2,000.00 $2,500.00 $3,000.00 $3,500.00 $4,000.00

S.AfríkaSómalía

SOMALIA vs SOUTH AFRICAComparison

Life Expectancy 1980-2012

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

SomaliaS.Africa

AFRICA vs THE WORLDComparison

GDP per capita, average in USD

Africa US Europe World $-

$5,000.00

$10,000.00

$15,000.00

$20,000.00

$25,000.00

$30,000.00

$35,000.00

$40,000.00

$45,000.00

$50,000.00

Women’s education and empowerment is the most important solution in the battle against extreme poverty in the development countries

ALTRUISM + SOLUTIONSWhat can be done about the problem?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHliULCiSCA


One computer for every child (OLPC). The project's mission is to empower the world's poorest children through joyful education - Inexpensive, durable, low-power and connected laptops are provided to empower children and communities

http://one.laptop.org/


http://www.scidev.net/sub-saharan-africa/

Google and Facebook are preparing to circle the world with satellite drones – bringing internet access to many developing countries and areas


http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/20/facebook-google-buying-into-drones-profit-motive

• Participate in international Red Cross programs• Support a child with regular donations• Change our daily consumption, shop responsibly• Give to charities and NGO’s that you trust• GiveWell.com + Malaria.org + Gatesfoundation.org• Make inspirational videos and distribute• Raise awareness by speaking to friends• Engage in the Effective Altruism movement

What can we do – personally?


ALTRUISM + SOLUTIONSUN Women Video from March 2014: Challenges and achievements in the

implementation of the Millennium Development Goals for women and girls

TAKK FYRIR + THANK YOUAny questions?

List of References and SourcesBBC. (2013, December 19th). Somalia profile. Retrieved May 31st 2014 from BBC News Africa: http://www.bbc.com/newsworldafrica-14094632

BBC. (2013, December 6th). Apartheid - 46 years in 90 seconds. Retrieved June 2nd 2014 from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-22911431

Central Intelligence Agency. (n.d.). Somalia. Retrieved May 31st 2014 from The World Factbook: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/so.html

Central Intelligence Agency. (n.d.). South Africa. Retrieved May 31st 2014 from The World Factbook: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sf.html

Kelly, R. (n.d.). Sub-Saharan Africa. Retrieved June 3rd 2014 from http://district.bluegrass.kctcs.edu/ryan.kelly/Africa.htm

Index mundi. (2013). Somalia Demographics Profile 2013. Retrieved June 5th 2014 from http://www.indexmundi.com/somalia/demographics_profile.html

UN Women. (2014, May 20th). Empowering Women - Empowering Humanity: Picture It! Retrieved June 2nd 2014 from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHliULCiSCA

UNDP.org. (n.d.). The Millennium Development Goals. Retrieved June 2nd 2014 from http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/mdgoverview/

United Nations. (2013). The Millennium Goals Development Report 2013. Retrieved June 2nd 2014 from http://www.undp.org/contentdam/undp/library/MDG/english/mdg-report-2013-english.pdf

United Nations. (n.d.). Political Definitions of "Major regions", according to the UN.

United Nations Development Programme. (n.d.). About Somalia. Retrieved June 5th 2014 from http://www.so.undp.org/content/somalia/en/home/countryinfo/

United Nations Development Programme. (2012). Somalia Human Development Report 2012. Retrieved June 5th 2014 from http://planipolis.iiep.unesco.org/upload/Somalia/Somalia_2012_HDR_en.pdf

Wikipedia: Somalia. (n.d.). Retrieved June 2nd 2014 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somalia

Wikipedia: South Africa. (n.d.). Retrieved June 2nd 2014 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa