Sustainability/ResilienceofFreshwaterEcosystems?

•  ClimateChangeisHere…StationarityisDead!•  Thereareno“reference”conditions…Baselinesare

shifting!–  Ecosystemsaredynamicandalwayschanging(bummer!)–  Humanactivitieshavekeptecosystemsindisequilibriumfor

ages,butespeciallysinceIndustrialRevolution–  Despitethis,ecosystemstatescanbeboundedbya“natural

rangeofvariability”(???)•  Theworldischanging…evermorerapidly

–  Humanconsumptionoffreshwaterisgrowing!–  Aquaticecosystemsaregreatlyalteredandbiodiversityis

imperiled!•  …butwecan’tpredictthefuture,especiallyataspeciNic

locality!•  Whattodo?

Sustainabilityofwhat…andhow?WhatdoweWANT?Oncestated,thenfacethe…

•  ScientiNicchallenge:–  Needaprocess‐basedunderstandingofhownatureworkstoallowus

to‘predict’outsideofhistorical/empiricalobservations•  Beechieetal.(2010)•  ELOHA–Nlow‐ecologyrelationships

–  BetterdeNinethe“bounds”ofecosystemself‐sustainability?–  Willitbe“resilient”(robusttoenvironmentalchange)?

•  Sustain“keystone”speciesfromextinction(RedgumforestsinNSW)•  Refugiaandconnectivity(MurrayCodexample)

•  Socialchallenge:–  Howdoinstitutionscooperatetoachievesociallydesiredgoals?

•  HowmuchNlexibilitydotheyhave?–  Needframeworkforcommunicationandnegotiation

•  But,wecan’tevengivethedollarvalueofacottonwoodtree!(MuchlessanEPT!)

MatthewsandWickel(2009)–Embracinguncertainty

•  ClimateChangemanageable?Howdowe“thinkabout”theproblem?

•  “ImpactsThinking”:

–  Thestatusquoinclimatechangeadaptationpractice

–  faithintheabilityofclimatemodelstopredictspeciNicimpacts,whichthenbecomethefocusofclimatechangeadaptationactivities

–  Flaws?

•  projectsingleclimatefutureandtreatasstationary–optimalsolutioninone‐dimensionalspace

•  Beyondabilityofclimatemodelstopredictlocaleffectsofclimatechange

•  AdaptationThinking:

–  Considersecosystemsasdynamicentitiesthatwillbeinherentlydifferentfromcurrentandpastecosystemstates

•  Speciesandecosystemshavealwayschangedinresponsetoshiftingenvironmentalconditions

–  Proposes“linkedsocial‐ecologicalsystems”thinkingthathighlights:

•  Resilientecosystems(howdeNined?)

•  Resilientinstitutions(howdeNined?)

–  Isthisa“novel”ornewperspectiveforwatersustainability?

–  Another“novelidea”?HumansocialsystemsinNaturalHistoryperspective?

•  Analogoustospeciesevolutiontochangingselectionpressuresfromtheenvironment,

•  Humansocialsystemscanalsobeviewedas“adapting”overmanygenerations

–  “…humansbeviewedasaspecieslikeotherspecies,whichimpliesthatweexistwithinecologicalboundariesandonanevolutionarytrajectory.”

–  Is“thisa“useful”framing?

•  3sourcesofuncertaintythatdriveneedtoembrace“adaptationthinking”inCCA

–  1)understandingwhatqualitiesenablelocalecosystems(andinmanycasestraditionallivelihoods)toautonomouslyadaptandremainresilienttoclimateimpacts;

–  2)understandinghowresourcemanagementinstitutionscanfacilitate(oratleastnotinhibit)theseprocesses;

–  3)developingtheinstitutionalmeanstoanticipateanddetectprocessesofclimate‐drivenchange,aswellastoimplementresponsestorealizedandpotentialimpacts.

•  Conclusions:–  FocusoninstitutionalcapacitytobeNlexibletorapidchanges‐avoid“maladaptation”

–  Anticipategreatervariability–  Thinkacrossscales–localtobasin–  Monitortodetectshiftsinecosystemandlivelihoodstoadaptquickly

Matthews,WickelandFreeman(2011)–ConvergingCurrents

•  Economicdevelopmentmustoccur,butclimatechangeismakingsustainabledevelopmentamuchbroaderandmoreplasticconceptthatishardertodeNineandachieve.

•  Challengefordesigningasustainablefuture:–  Ourabilitytoprojectfutureeco‐hydrologicalconditionswithconNidenceisseverelylimitedduetothedeepuncertaintiesinclimatemodels,particularlyforprecipitation,andmanyecologistsstruggletoNindactionablerelevanceinthesemodelsatthelocal‘‘project’’or‘‘site’’scalewheremostpolicyandresourcemanagementdecisionsreside

TraditionalInfrastructureDesign:

•  assumestationarityclimateoverdesignlifetime

•  Mismatchbetweenclimateandinfrastructure?

–  HooverDamonColorado:LakeMeadnowconsistentlystoresonlyabout30percentofitsdesignedcapacity.

–  40percentofalldevelopmentinvestmentsareatriskduetoclimatechange(OrganizationforEconomicCo‐operationandDevelopment)

–  climate‐infrastructuremismatchesarelikelytoreduceeconomicgrowththroughlowratesofelectricalproductionorirregularagriculturalharvestswhilewastingscarceinvestmentcapital

•  CautionforVorosmartyetal.(2010,Nature)paper,whichimpliesincreasedinvestmentininfrastructurewillincreasewatersecurityindevelopingworld?

AlternativeInfrastructureDesign:

•Explicitlyintegrateecosystemsintoinfrastructuredevelopment.

•Reducethevulnerabilityoftheinfrastructureanditsimpactedecosystemsovertheoperationallifetimeoftheproject.‐Nlexibility‐multiplepossiblefutures‐betterecosystemindicators

Poff(2009)Variability

•  MainPoint:waterresourcesplannersandmanagersneedtounderstandgeneraltenetsofsustainableriverinemanagementandtakeleadershiproleindesignandmanagementofinfrastructure

•  Variability,notjustminimumNlow,required(!!!!)

•  “Howmuchnatural”basedonsocialpreferences,inconjunctionwithscientiNicunderstanding

•  Can’t“saveitall”,sobestrategicinplanningandmanagement.Linklocaltoregional.

PoffandRichter(2012)

•  Newintegrationneeded

–  Bringsscientists,engineers,managers,policymakersandstakeholderstogethertodevelopandworkcooperativelytowardacommonsetofgoals

•  ChallengesforachievingFWSustainability–  1)Management/Policy

•  Adversarial,lackofcommon“value”–  2)Engineering/Technical

•  Howtore‐operatedams–  3)ScientiNic

•  Whatare“bounds”ofsustainability/resilience?•  Linklocaltoregionalprocesses

•  FourStepsTowardsaNewWaterManagementParadigm–  1)ActivelyIncorporateEcosystemPrinciplesintoManagement–  2)IntegrateSocialandEcologicalSciencesintoSustainabilityManagement–  3)CoordinateRegulatoryandManagementAuthoritiesOverWater–  4)InterdisciplinaryEducationandResearch