sustainable energy for everyone
TRANSCRIPT
11/12/2013
Renewable energy and sustainable energy balances
Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok
© ECOFYS | |
The growth of renewable energy ….
>What may renewable energy contribute in 2030?
>How to integrate renewable energy in electricity systems?
>How to incentivize renewable energy?
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok 2
© ECOFYS | |
What may renewable energy
contribute in 2030?
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok 3
© ECOFYS | |
Renewable energy: 40% in 2030
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok 4
Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy – A 2030 Scenario for the EU
© ECOFYS | |
Renewable energy by sector
5
Buildings
Manufacturing
industry
Transport
Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy – A 2030 Scenario for the EU
© ECOFYS | |
Investments and return-on-investment
(energy efficiency + renewable energy)
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok 6
Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy – A 2030 Scenario for the EU
© ECOFYS | |
How to integrate renewable energy
in electricity systems?
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok 7
© ECOFYS | |
Germany, business-as-used-to-be
11/12/2013 8 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok
© ECOFYS | |
Germany, the new world (June 2013!)
11/12/2013 9 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok
© ECOFYS | |
Germany, prices-as-used-to-be
11/12/2013 10 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok
© ECOFYS | |
Germany, prices in the new world (June 2013!)
11/12/2013 11 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok
© ECOFYS | |
Flexibility options for power systems
System
Energy Storage
Supply
Net-work
Demand
11/12/2013 12 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok
© ECOFYS | |
How to incentivize
renewable energy?
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok 13
© ECOFYS | | 11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok
The MS are currently on track with their 2011/2012
trajectory but projections do not look good for 2020
Source: Ecofys based on
Ecofys et al. (2012). RE progress and biofuels
sustainability.
14
© ECOFYS | |
Lessons from MS experience tell us how to design
effective and efficient RES-E support schemes
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok
Provide reliable framework: frequent and unexpected policy changes undermine investor confidence
• Policy changes transparent and predictable (e.g. automatic degression, clear formula for quota setting, pre-set revision agenda)
• No retroactive changes
• Long term political commitment
• Guarantee support level for long term
• Consultation with stakeholders
Lessons learnt Best practice design criteria
Reflect and limit investment risks: risk-conscious (triple-A) policies
increase growth and reduce support costs by up to 50%
• Tailor support scheme to RE market deployment status and electricity market readiness
• No abrupt or retroactive policy changes
• Avoid rigid budget or capacity caps
• Simple, transparent permitting process
• Priority grid access and dispatch
• Quota: long term horizon and serious penalties
• Government facilitates access to capital (e.g. participation, financial guarantees, loans)
Adjust level of support to technology and market conditions
• Apply technology specific support levels
• Calculate level of support based on LCOE, so support neither too low nor too high
• Planned and transparent adjustments based on technology and market changes
15
© ECOFYS | |
Thank you!
Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok Director of Science Ecofys Kanaalweg 15-G 3526 KL Utrecht Phone: 030-6623399 E-mail: [email protected] Twitter: @kornelisblok www.ecofys.com
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok 16
© ECOFYS | |
sustainable energy
for everyone
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok 17
© ECOFYS | |
Back-up slides
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok 18
© ECOFYS | |
Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok 19
IPCC 2011, Special Report Renewable Energy and Climate Change Mitigation
© ECOFYS | | 11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok 20
IPCC 2011, Special Report Renewable Energy and Climate Change Mitigation
© ECOFYS | |
CO2 emissions from fossil and renewable sources
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok 21
Ecofys, 2012: Renewable Energy – A 2030 Scenario for the EU
© ECOFYS | |
The impact of grid constraints
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok 22
© ECOFYS | |
Grid constraints and total system costs
11/12/2013 Prof. dr. Kornelis Blok 23