SWEDISH  MEDICAL  CENTER  CHERRY  HILL    MIMP  SPACE  NEEDS  ANALYSIS    JANUARY  16,  2014  

AGENDA  

1.  Purpose  of  Space  Needs  Analysis  

2.  The  Context  –  Demographics:    ExisAng  and  Projected  –  Trends  in  Health  Care  Delivery  –  The  Region  

3.  Forecasts  –  Volumes    –  Space  

   

 

PURPOSE  OF  SPACE  NEEDS  ANALYSIS  

To  validate  and  refine  future  space  needs  on  the  Campus  by  type  of  space  1.  Hospital  2.  Clinical/Research  3.  EducaAon  4.  Hotel  5.  Long  Term  Care/Assisted  Living/  Skilled  Nursing  6.  Other  Campus  Support    

 

THE  CONTEXT  

Aging  PopulaAon          

•  People  living  longer  means:    –  more  elderly  alive  today  because  of  medical  intervenAons  –  more  chronic  disease    –  more  complex  medical  condiAons  prevalent  with  the  elderly  –  more  support  needed  for  elderly  –  Sicker  inpaAents  –  More  fragile  outpaAents            

year   1910   2013  

Ave  Life  Expectancy   51.5   80.3  

HOSPITAL  DISCHARGE  RATES  BY  AGE:    WASHINGTON  STATE  

65+  

<65  

Those  aged  65+  are  admiNed  to  hospitals    3.5  Smes  more  oTen    than  those  under  65.  

Source:      WA  State  Dept  of  Health  

POPULATION  GROWTH  BY  AGE    

0  

500,000  

1,000,000  

1,500,000  

2,000,000  

2,500,000  

3,000,000  

2010   2012   2015   2020   2025   2030   2035   2040  

0  –  14  =  +19%  

65+  =  +127%    

15  –  64  =  +11%    

Overall  PopulaSon  for  King  County  will  increase  25%  by  2040    

KING  COUNTY  65+  POPULATION  

0  

100,000  

200,000  

300,000  

400,000  

500,000  

600,000  

2010   2012   2015   2020   2025   2030   2035   2040  

65+  Age  Group  

+55  K  

+  267,000  more  65+  in  King  County  by  2040  +26  K  

+58  K  

+51K  

Residents  65+                                +100,000                          +100,000  more    

+35K  +26K  

+15K  

THE  CONTEXT  

Major  Trends  in  Health  Care  Delivery      

MAJOR  HEALTH  CARE  TRENDS  

•  Improved  access  to  the  right  care  at  the  right  Ame  

•  Shia  from  inpaAent  to  outpaAent  •  Improved  outcomes  •  Integrated  systems  of  care  

–  Hospital  mergers  •  BeNer  care  for  lower  cost  •  Prudent  use  of  technologies  •  Changing/evolving  reimbursement  systems    •  Breakthroughs  in  research  

–  IntegraAon  of  clinical  care  and  research  –  InnovaAve  technologies  

•  Challenges  in  medical  professional  staffing  –  OpSmize  precious  resources  

•  Aging  physical  infrastructure  

   

 

 INTEGRATED  SYSTEM  COMPONENTS  

Primary  Care  Clinics  

Special  Equipment,  e.g.  Cath  Labs,  specialized  Surgeries,  Gamma  Knife  

Medical  Centers  

Community  Hospitals  /  Emergency  Rooms  

Ballard  PC          Ballinger              Beacon  Hill          Cen  Seafle      C.  Edmonds      C.  W  Sea            Cle  Elum                Downtown          Edmonds              Factoria                Ballard  FM        C  Hill  FM  

First  Hill  FM    Greenlake        Edmonds  IM    Issaquah  PC    Magnolia  PC    Mill  Ck  PC          Pine  Lk  PC        Q  Anne                    Redmond            Snoqualmie          SLU  PC                      W  Sea  PC  

Ballard                          Edmonds                      Issaquah                  Mill  Creek                Redmond  

Cherry  Hill                    First  Hill  

 FORECASTS    

Program  Volumes  

PaAents  in  Beds  Research/Clinic  MDs  EducaAon  Users  Hotel  Guests  Long  Term  Care  Residents      

Demographics  

By  Age  Use  Rates    

Future  Intent  

Role  within  the  System  of  Care  Emerging  technology  &  care  trends      

Space  benchmarks  

Plan  for  ‘right  sizing’  spaces    

Allowances  for  development  within  constraints  of  exisAng  condiAons      

Future  Volume  &  Space  Needs  

 VOLUME  FORECASTS  

Hospital  Bed  Forecast      

!196!!

!290!!

!385!!

!*!!!!

!100,000!!

!200,000!!

!300,000!!

!400,000!!

!500,000!!

!600,000!!

!*!!!!

!50!!

!100!!

!150!!

!200!!

!250!!

!300!!

!350!!

!400!!

!450!!

2012! 2023! 2040!

Beds! King!Co.!Pop!65+!

Bed  forecasts  influenced  by  populaAon  change,  service  demand,  ACA  (new  paAents),  and  average  length  of  stay.    

 VOLUME  FORECASTS  

Clinical  and  Research  MDs    

Clinical  &  Research  MD  forecasts  influenced  by  inpaAent  bed  growth,  enhancing  specialty  programs,  and  expanding  to  meet  needs  of  ACA.        

!277!!

!441!!

563!

!)!!!!

!50!!

!100!!

!150!!

!200!!

!250!!

!300!!

!350!!

!400!!

!450!!

!)!!!!

!100!!

!200!!

!300!!

!400!!

!500!!

!600!!

2013! 2023! 2040!

Clinical!MDs! Research!MDs! Beds!

 VOLUME  FORECASTS  

Hotel  Rooms      

Hotel  Room  forecast  primarily  influenced  by  inpaAent  bed  growth.    Some  beds  set  aside  for  outpaAents  coming  from  out-­‐of-­‐town  for  treatment.      

!29!!

!56!!

!80!!

!(!!!!

!50!!

!100!!

!150!!

!200!!

!250!!

!300!!

!350!!

!400!!

!450!!

!(!!!!

!10!!

!20!!

!30!!

!40!!

!50!!

!60!!

!70!!

!80!!

!90!!

2013! 2023! 2040!

Hotel!Rooms! Hospital!Beds!

VOLUME  FORECASTS  

EducaAon  

EducaAon  forecast  influenced  by  increases  in  paAent  volumes  driving  the  need  for  addiAonal  staff,  staff  training  for  new  technology  and  data/record  systems,  residency  programs,  and  other  teaching  and  training.                  

73K$SF$

100K$SF$

150K$SF$

0$

50$

100$

150$

200$

250$

300$

350$

400$

450$

0$

20000$

40000$

60000$

80000$

100000$

120000$

140000$

160000$

2012$ 2023$ 2040$

Educa3on$ Hospital$Beds$

 VOLUME  FORECASTS  

Long  Term  Care/Assisted  Living/Skilled  Nursing  Beds      

Long  Term  Care  forecast  assumes  Seafle  Rehab  Center  maintains  exisAng  program.    AddiAonal  development  on  campus  is  assumed  to  be  a  mix  of  acute  rehab  and  assisted  living.    Size  is  based  on  operaAonal  consideraAons.      

99"

149"

220"

"'""""

"100,000""

"200,000""

"300,000""

"400,000""

"500,000""

"600,000""

0"

50"

100"

150"

200"

250"

2012" 2023" 2040"

Sea"Rehab"Center" Long"Term"Care" King"Co."Pop"65+"

CAMPUS  SPACE  NEED  PROJECTIONS  

Year   ExisSng   2023   2040  

Hospital    541,300      1,014,000      1,350,000    Clinical/Research    427,000      1,014,000      1,250,000    EducaAon    73,000      100,000      150,000    Hotel    12,500      40,000      80,000    Long  Term  Care    43,000      93,000      220,000    Other  Support    50,000      50,000      50,000    TOTAL    1,146,800      2,311,000      3,100,000    

Building  Gross  Square  Feet