sws exit poll

8/9/2019 Sws Exit Poll

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Table 1.b VOTE FOR PRESIDENT, BY EDUCATION (%)

TOTALRP

NONE/SOMEELEM

ELEMGRAD/SOME HS

HS GRAD/ SOMEVOC/VOC/ SOMECOLLEGE

COLLEGEGRAD/ POST

CAN'TANSWER/REFUSED

AQUINO BENIGNOSIMEON III C.'NOYNOY'

44 36 41 45 50 43

ESTRADAEJERCITO,JOSEPH M. 'ERAP'

25 34 29 25 13 22

VILLAR, MANUELJR. B. 'MANNY'

13 16 15 13 11 12

TEODOROGILBERTO JR. C.'GIBO'

11 8 9 9 16 10

VILLANUEVA

EDUARDO C. 'BRO.EDDIE'

3 3 3 4 4 3

GORDON RICHARDJ. 'DICK'

2 0.4 2 2 4 0.4

ACOSTAVETELLANO S.'DODONG'

1 2 0.4 1 0.4 1

MADRIGAL JAMBYA. S. 'JAMBY'

0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4

DE LOS REYESJOHN CARLOS G.'JC'

0.2 0 0.2 0.2 0.1 1

PERLAS JESUSNICANOR P. 'NICK'

0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3

CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED

1 1 1 1 1 8

Table 1.c VOTE FOR PRESIDENT, BY RELIGION (%)

TOTALRP

CATHOLICIGLESIA NICRISTO

ISLAMOTHERCHRIS-TIANS

OTHERNON-CHRIS-TIANS

REFUSED

AQUINO BENIGNO

SIMEON III C.'NOYNOY'

44 44 79 46 28 26 43

ESTRADA EJERCITO,JOSEPH M. 'ERAP'

25 26 9 15 25 28 22

VILLAR, MANUEL JR.B. 'MANNY'

13 14 4 27 13 18 10

TEODORO GILBERTOJR. C. 'GIBO'

11 11 3 6 12 13 10


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VILLANUEVAEDUARDO C. 'BRO.EDDIE'

3 1 0.5 4 18 13 5

GORDON RICHARD J.'DICK'

2 2 3 1 2 1 1

ACOSTA VETELLANOS. 'DODONG' 1 1 0.4 1 0.4 0.4 1

MADRIGAL JAMBY A.S. 'JAMBY'

0.2 0.2 1 0.1 0.1 0 0.5

DE LOS REYES JOHNCARLOS G. 'JC'

0.2 0.2 0.2 0 0.1 0 1

PERLAS JESUSNICANOR P. 'NICK'

0.1 0.1 0 0 0.1 0 0.2

CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED

1 1 1 0.4 1 0 7

Table 2. WHO DID YOU VOTE FOR AS VICE-PRESIDENT?

Partial Exit Poll %

BINAY JEJOMAR C. 'JOJO' 40

ROXAS MANUEL A. 'MAR' 40

LEGARDA LOREN B. 'LOREN' 10

FERNANDO BAYANI F. 'BF' 3

MANZANO EDUARDO B. 'EDU' 2

YASAY PERFECTO R. 'KIDLAT' 2

CHIPECO DOMINADOR JR. F. 'JUN' 0.4

SONZA JOSE Y. 'JAY SONZA' 0.2

CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 3

"Question. Sino po ang inyong ibinoto bilang PRESIDENTE, BISE-PRESIDENTE, at mgaSENADOR? (SHOW LIST)Who did you vote for as PRESIDENT, VICE-PRESIDENT, and SENATORS? (SHOW LIST)"

Table 2.a CHOICE FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT (Column %)

TOTAL RP AQUINO ESTRADA VILLAR TEODORO OTHERS

ROXAS 40 67 12 24 28 15

BINAY 40 25 73 37 40 27

LEGARDA 10 4 9 30 9 7

OTHERS 10 4 6 8 22 51

100 100 100 100 100 100

Table 2.b VOTE FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY CLASS (%)

TOTAL RP ABC D E


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BINAY JEJOMAR C. 'JOJO' 40 40 41 41

ROXAS MANUEL A. 'MAR' 40 43 40 33

LEGARDA LOREN B. 'LOREN' 10 7 10 14

FERNANDO BAYANI F. 'BF' 3 4 2 3

MANZANO EDUARDO B. 'EDU' 2 1 2 2

YASAY PERFECTO R. 'KIDLAT' 2 2 1 1

CHIPECO DOMINADOR JR. F. 'JUN' 0.4 0.2 0.4 1

SONZA JOSE Y. 'JAY SONZA' 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3

CAN'T ANSWER/REFUSED 3 1 2 5

Table 2.c VOTE FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY EDUCATION (%)

TOTALRP

NONE/SOMEELEM

ELEMGRAD/SOME HS

HS GRAD/SOMEVOC/VOC/SOMECOLLEGE

COLLEGEGRAD/POST

CAN'TANSWER/REFUSED

BINAY JEJOMAR C.'JOJO'

40 39 39 43 38 35

ROXAS MANUEL A.'MAR'

40 32 38 40 46 36

LEGARDA LOREN B.'LOREN'

10 14 12 9 7 9

FERNANDO BAYANIF. 'BF'

3 2 4 3 5 3

MANZANO EDUARDOB. 'EDU'

2 3 2 1 1 2

YASAY PERFECTO R.'KIDLAT' 2 2 1 2 2 1

CHIPECODOMINADOR JR. F.'JUN'

0.4 1 0.3 0.3 0.3 1

SONZA JOSE Y. 'JAYSONZA'

0.2 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.1 1

CAN'TANSWER/REFUSED

3 7 3 2 1 13

Table 2.d VOTE FOR VICE-PRESIDENT, BY RELIGION (%)

TOTALRP

CATHOLICIGLESIA NICRISTO

ISLAMOTHERCHRIS-TIANS

OTHER

NON-CHRIS-TIANS

REFUSED

BINAY JEJOMAR C.'JOJO'

40 42 13 45 42 44 35

ROXAS MANUEL A.'MAR'

40 40 75 17 30 27 36

LEGARDA LOREN B. 10 9 4 28 9 14 9


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'LOREN'

FERNANDO BAYANI F.'BF'

3 3 3 2 4 4 3

MANZANO EDUARDOB. 'EDU'

2 2 1 2 1 1 2

YASAY PERFECTO R.'KIDLAT'

2 0.4 1 3 9 6 2

CHIPECO DOMINADORJR. F. 'JUN'

0.4 0.4 1 2 0.2 0 1

SONZA JOSE Y. 'JAYSONZA'

0.2 0.2 0.1 0.02 0.1 0 0.4

CAN'TANSWER/REFUSED

3 2 2 3 4 3 12

II. THE VOTERSTV5-SWS 2010 EXIT POLLPHILIPPINES (Partial sample as of May 10, 9:30 p.m.; aired on TV5 as of May 10, 11p.m.)

(n=12,078)Table 3. IS PLATFORM OR PERSONALITY THE MAIN REASON FOR YOUR CHOICE OFCANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT?

Partial Exit Poll %

PLATFORM 44

PERSONALITY 47


"Question. PLATAPORMA po ba o PAGKATAO ang inyong pangunahing dahilan sa pagpili ngkandidato sa pagka-Presidente?Is PLATFORM or PERSONALITY the main reason for your choice of candidate for President?"

Table 4. WHEN DID YOU DECIDE ON YOUR VOTE FOR PRESIDENT?

Partial Exit Poll %

ONLY NOW 13

MAY 1-9 14

IN APRIL 9

IN MARCH 7

IN FEBRUARY OR EARLIER 51


"Question. Kailan po kayo nakapagdesisyon sa inyong boto sa pagka-Presidente?When did you decide on your vote for president?"

Table 5. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS ELECTIONS, WAS VOTING EASIER OR HARDER FOR YOUNOW?


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Partial Exit Poll %

EASIER NOW 58

SAME AS BEFORE 8

MORE DIFFICULT NOW 26

FIRST TIME TO VOTE 3


Question. Kumpara sa mga nakaraang halalan, ang pagboto po ba ninyo ay MAS MADALI o MASMAHIRAP ngayon?Compared to previous elections, was voting easier or harder for you now?

Table 6. UNDER THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION, DO YOU THINK THE QUALITY OFGOVERNANCE...?

Partial Exit Poll %

WILL GET BETTER 61WILL BE THE SAME AS NOW 15

WILL GET WORSE 2


Question. Sa ilalim ng susunod na administrasyon, masasabi ba ninyo na ang mangyayari sakalidad ng pamamahala ay ?Under the next administration, do you think the quality of governance ?

Table 7. IN THE COMING 12 MONTHS WOULD YOU SAY THAT YOUR QUALITY OF LIFE...?

Partial Exit Poll %

WILL BE BETTER 52

SAME 24

WILL BE WORSE 1


Question. Sa darating na 12 buwan, masasabi ba ninyo na ang uri ba ng inyong pamumuhay ay ...(READ OUT)?In the coming 12 months would you say that your quality of life... (READ OUT)?

Table 8. OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS, WOULD YOU SAY THAT THE ECONOMY OF THEPHILIPPINES WILL...?

Partial Exit Poll %

WILL BE BETTER 55

SAME 20

WILL BE WORSE 2


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Question. Sa darating na 12 buwan, masasabi ba ninyo na ang ekonomiya ng Pilipinas ay (READ OUT)?Over the next 12 months, would you say that the economy of the Philippines will... (READ OUT)?

BackgroundSocial Weather Stations, in cooperation with the School of Government of Ateneo de Manila University,conducted a national exit poll sponsored by the PLDT-SMART Foundation, Inc., for exclusive broadcastby the Associated Broadcasting Company (TV5), called the "TV5-SWS EXIT POLL."The TV5-SWS Exit Poll adheres to the requirements set by the Fair Election Act's Section 5.5 on exitpolls. This requires interviewers to (a) stay at least 50 meters away from polling centers, (b) weardistinctive TV5-SWS Exit Poll clothing and carry TV5-SWS Exit Poll identification cards; and (c) informrespondents that they may refuse to answer. The Act says that the results "may be announced after theclosing of the polls on election day, and must clearly announce the total number of respondents, and theplaces where they were taken" and that the "announcement shall state that the same is unofficial anddoes not represent a trend."

SWS previously conducted exit polls in the national elections of 1995, 1998, 2001 and 2004. Thoseprevious polls were all conducted on election-day, in the homes of a random sample of respondents whohad already voted earlier in the day. Conducting an exit poll in homes rather than at polling locations isvalid under the Guidelines for Exit Polls and Election Forecasts of the World Association for PublicOpinion Research (WAPOR), written by the WAPOR Exit Poll Committee of which I was a member, andapproved by the WAPOR Council in 2006.This year, however, the TV5-SWS Exit Poll is conducted not in homes but at the polling centers, 50meters away. This enables the interviews to be done, as in the developed countries, throughout the day.The interview results are transmitted to the SWS office in Quezon City, and processed to produce the exitpoll results for broadcast on TV5 as soon as completed, and lawfully allowed.SWS conducted the TV5-SWS Exit Poll with its own regular staff and a special complement of direct hiresfor added interviewing and data processing capacity. Starting in mid-2004, SWS has accomplished allfield and data processing operations internally, without outsourcing.

The questionnaire for the TV5-SWS Exit Poll was designed in cooperation with the Ateneo School ofGovernment (ASoG). In addition to asking about the votes for President, Vice-President and Senator, ithas several question items, in addition to standard demographics (gender, age, education,socioeconomic class, religion, charismatic group, and home language) to enable substantive analysis ofthe 2010 vote. The TV5-SWS Exit Poll analysis will be done by SWS in cooperation with ASoG.SWS is entirely responsible for the sampling of the TV5-SWS Exit Poll. The poll was conducted in 802Voting Centers (VCs) nationwide, covering all provinces from Batanes to Tawi-Tawi, and chartered citiesof the Philippines. The regional distribution of the TV5-SWS Exit Poll sample of VCs, after proportionalallocation according to the official 2010 number of Registered Voters (RVs) in the said provinces andcities, is as follows:NCR - 96CAR - 15Region I - 45Region II - 31

Region III - 88Region IV- A - 107Region IV-B - 23Region V - 44Region VI - 62Region VII - 62Region VIII - 38Region IX - 29Region X - 38


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Region XI - 40Region XII - 32ARMM - 30CARAGA - 22Within each province/city, the sample-VCs are chosen with probability proportional to their number ofRVs. In each VC, SWS fielded normally two interviewers (sometimes one, if the VC is small); the totalfield group, including support staff, is over 1,800 persons. SWS has 110 encoding stations at its mainoffice to accommodate the incoming interview reports.The interviewers of the TV5-SWS Exit Poll have been trained to behave in a strictly non-partisan mannerat all times. They are to approach voters to be interviewed at a steady pace throughout voting hours.They may not accept voters who volunteer to be interviewed. For the sake of privacy, interviewees'names are not recorded; interviewees are given a thank-you card with the name of their interviewer. TheTV5-SWS Exit Poll aims for an average of 40 interviews per VC, or a national sample of about 32,000interviews. The national sampling error, though still to be ascertained, is expected to be below 1%.The results of each VC are weighted by its present number of RVs, multiplied by the actual voting turnoutpercentage in the last presidential election year (2004), to progressively obtain provincial/city results,regional results, and national results. However, the voting results for national positions may be reported atthe national level only, at which the sample is maximized; it is not necessary for an exit poll to reachconclusions about sub-jurisdictions.#

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