taiwan aff

8/18/2019 Taiwan Aff

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War

China-Taiwan relations will collapse – DPP will winelections and reuse to acknowledge “One China

The !cono"ist 1#$ where the hell is the author,http://www.economist.com/news/china/21646571-chinese-leaders-send-warnings-taiwans-opposition-party-ahead-elections-next-year-chinas-ottom

!"#$% more than se&en years o' calm relations %etween China and Taiwan, leaders in&ei'ing are %eginning to warn that tensions will rise again i thewinner o Taiwan(s ne)t presidential election $ in *anuar+$ ails to"ake a clear co""it "ent to the notion that there is onl+ one China, (n )arch 4th President i *inping said .pro-independence orces. inTaiwan were the %iggest threat to peace in the Taiwan /trait, *is remar+swere clearly intended as a warn ing to Taiwan0s independence-leaning emocraticrogressi&e arty DPP, which has a good chance o returning to power, 0tsleader, #sai 0ng-wen pictured ao&e, 'aces a tough choice: anger hina, or try to placate it and ris+

appearing wea+. ince Taiwan0s ruling part+, the 3uomintang 2T, ousted the in theislands presidential polls in 2, it has agreed with China0s line that relations etween thetwo sides should e ased on what is o'ten called the 1882 consensus9 namely that oth sidesaccept there is ut one China, while dening that term in their own di;erent ways. )r worries aout )s #sai>s unwillingness to accept the 1882 consensus and the damage that might do to #aiwan>s relations withhina. ince then, howe&er, 'ears ha&e grown that some industries might e o&erwhelmed y competition'rom hina and Hos might e threatened. ! year ago students occupied #aiwan>s legislati&e chamer in anunprecedented protest against a trade deal with hina9 hundreds o' thousands too+ to the streets in

support. 4n "unicipal elections in Io&emer the 2T sufered one o itsworst electoral loss es since the party too+ re'uge on the island at the end o' the hinese ci&ilwar in 1848. Joters> anxieties aout the potential impact o' cross-strait economic ties on their li&elihoods

may ha&e een a 'actor. Accepting the 1556 consensus %eore the 7ne)t8election would %e political suicide or the DPP, says Keorge #sai o' the #aiwan"oundation 'or emocracy. #he 3)# is now struggling to remould its image. #he hugely unpopular )r )ahas resigned as 3)# chairman9 a charismatic city mayor, $ric hu, has replaced him. Fut the party is stillplagued y inghting and has yet to nd a presidential candidate. )r hu, its est hope, says he does notwant to run. !merica is proaly anxious. 0t does not want to e seen in #aiwan as inter'ering in the politics


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o' a 'ellow democracy. Fut !merica wants the to show it can maintain good ties with hina9 it does notwant to e suc+ed into a conCict that might erupt should hina lose patience. )r s ommunist arty reached an agreement with #aiwan>s Iationalist3uomintang arty which states that oth #aiwan and mainland hina ac+nowledge there is only =(nehina,M ut neither side recogniOes the others> legitimacy. #sai 0ng-Aen said she =understands andrespectsM the agreement a'ter winning the election.

China strike ine3ita%leAsia Ti"es 1#$ http://atimes.com/215/1/taiwan-military-says-china-preparing-'or-possile-attac+/

#!0$0: China is acti3el+ %uilding up its ar"ed orces and the+ would %estrong enough %+ 6?6? to launch an attack on Taiwan, a military report saidon #uesday (ct 27. espite closer political ties China is . continuing to accu"ulatelarge-scale war capa%ilities$ with the threat o a cross-strait "ilitar+


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con>ict continuing to e)ist.$ according to the island0s 6?1# @ationalDeence eport, The "ainland0s annual "ilitar+ spending has grownon a3erage %+ dou%le-digit rates o3er the past decade$ second onl+to the Bnited /tates, it said. #he iennial report pulished y the de'ence ministry said hinawas strengthening its na&al and air 'orces in the region to deter 'oreign 'orces 'rom inter&ening in anyin&asion. hina elie&es 'oreign inter'erence would e its iggest concern i' it attac+s #aiwan, it said.

hina and #aiwan split at the end o' a ci&il war in 1848. %elations ha&e warmed since current #aiwaneseresident )a Ging-Heou o' the hina-'riendly 3uomintang party came to power in 2. Fut China stillsees Taiwan as a %reakawa+ territor+ and reuses to renounce theuse o orce should it declare or"al independence, #he de'ence ministry saidthere was a ris+ o' #aiwan letting its guard down ecause o' increased economic and cultural exchanges inrecent years. (&erall hina is di&ersi'ying its #aiwan strategy, 'orging positi&e de&elopments in thecross-strait situation, gi&ing them an ad&antage 'or any 'uture attac+s on #aiwan, its report said.

Taiwan will elect a new president in *anuar+$ with the candidate othe pro-independence opposition De"ocratic Progressi3e Part+$ Tsai4ng-wen$ tipped to win. he has pledged to maintain the status Euo i' she wins ut someanal+sts ha3e uestioned whether cross-strait peace could %e"aintained, #he de'ence ministry report also Euestioned China0s reported "ilitar+

spending, which it said was signicantly understated. #he actual %udget is esti"atedto %e two to three ti"es the reported )0D0#!%G )($%I0Q!#0(I !I P.. $


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sumarines. hina may also e de&eloping a new "o%ile "issile$ the DH-I1$ which willcarr+ "ultiple warheads$ gi3ing the Chinese a wa+ to potentially deeat anA"erican %allistic "issile deense s+ste", 0t is worth noting that the Euantity, though notthe Euality, o' hina>s nuclear arsenal is only limited y its dwindling stoc+ o' weapons grade plutonium. #his raises theEuestion9 to what end is hina de&eloping and deploying its nuclear arsenalS hinese )oti&ation #he textoo+ answer isstraight'orward. hina see+s a secure second retaliatory stri+e capaility that will ser&e to deter an !merican rst stri+e.!s hina argues, it has a =no-nuclear-rst policyM which ma+es its arsenal purely de'ensi&e R while its other capailities

such as cyer are o;ensi&e. otential nuclear ad&ersaries including %ussia, 0ndia, and the Pnited tates are 'ully awarethat hina>s in&estment in ad&anced warheads and allistic missile deli&ery systems ring elhi, )oscow, and, soon,Aashington within reach o' the =$ast Aind.M Ahile not a nuclear peer competitor to either %ussia or the P.., hina israpidly catching up as it uilds an estimated L-5 new nuclear warheads each year. Ahile !merican leaders may ndsuch a sentiment un'ounded, the % has a strong 'ear that the Pnited tates will use its nuclear arsenal as a tool tolac+mail coerce hina into ta+ing or not ta+ing a numer o' actions that are against its interests. hina>s 'ears are notun'ounded. Pnli+e hina, the Pnited tates maintains an amiguous use-policy in order to pro&ide maximum Cexiility. !sdeclassied go&ernment documents 'rom the 187s clearly show, the Pnited tates certainly planned to useo&erwhelming nuclear 'orce early in a $uropean conCict with the o&iet Pnion. Ki&en !merican nuclear superiority and itspositioning o' allistic missile de'enses in !sia, ostensily to de'end against a Iorth 3orean attac+, hina sees its positionand aility to deter the Pnited tates as &ulnerale. ossile cenario Ahile there are se&eral scenarios where conCict

etween the Pnited tates and hina is possile, some anal+sts %elie3e that a con>ict o3erTaiwan re"ains the "ost likel+ place where the PC and the B,/,would co"e to %lows, FeiHing is aware that any coerci&e action on its part to 'orce #aiwan to accept itspolitical domination could incur the wrath o' the Pnited tates. To pre3ent the B,/, ro"

inter3ening in the region$ China will certainly turn to its anti-access/area-denial !2/!strategy, %eginning with non-lethal "eans and non-lethal threats todiscourage the A"erican pulic 'rom supporting the use o' 'orce in support o' #aiwan. 4 thwartedin its initial eforts to stop Chinese aggression against Taiwan$ theBnited /tates "a+ %e te"pted to resort to stronger "easures andattack "ainland China, ! +inetic response to a cyer-attac+, 'or example, although an option, would &eryli+ely lead to escalation on the part o' the hinese. Ki&en the regime>s relati&e wea+ness and the proaility that!merican attac+s cyer and con&entional on hina will include stri+es against D! command and control 2 nodes,

which mingle con&entional and nuclear 2$ the Chinese "a+ escalate to the use o anuclear weapon against a P.. carrier in hina>s sel'-declared waters 'or example as a means o' 'orcing de-escalation. 0n the &iew o' hina, such a stri+e would not e a &iolation o' its no-rst-use policy ecause the stri+e wouldoccur in so&ereign hinese waters, thus ma+ing the use o' nuclear weapons a de'ensi&e act. ince #aiwan is a domestic

matter, any

B,/, inter3ention would %e 3iewed as an act o aggression, #his,

in the minds o' the hinese, ma+es the Pnited tates an outside aggressor, not hina. 0t is also important to rememerthat nuclear weapons are an asymmetric response to !merican con&entional superiority. Ki&en that hina is incapale o'executing and sustaining a con&entional military campaign against the continental Pnited tates, hina would clearlyha&e an asymmetry o' interest and capaility with the Pnited tates R 'ar more is at sta+e 'or hina than it is 'or thePnited tates. 0n essence, the only e;ecti&e option in retaliation 'or a success'ul P.. con&entional campaign on hinesesoil is the nuclear one. Aithout ma+ing too crude a point, the nuclear option pro&ides more ang 'or the uc+, or yuan.

Ki&en that "utuall+ assured destruction E2AD F is not part o China(sstrategic thinking – in act it is e)plicitl+ re'ected R the % will see the situation&ery di;erently than the Pnited tates. hina li+ely has no desire to ecome a nuclear peer o' the Pnited tates. 0t does

not need to e in order to achie&e its geopolitical oHecti&es. *owe&er, China does ha3e specic goals that area part o' its stated core securit+ interests, including reunis power proHection eyondthe $ast hina ea. Aithout #aiwan, hina cannot gain military hegemony in its own neighorhood. hina>s maritime landreclamation strategy 'or outheast !sia pales in scope and signicance with the historical and political &alue o' #aiwan.Aith #aiwan returned to its right'ul place, the rele&ance to hina o' the P.. military presence in @apan and outh 3orea isgreatly diminished. hina>s relationship with the hilippines, which lies Hust to the south o' #aiwan, would also changedramatically. !lthough hina criticiOes the Pnited tates 'or playing the role o' gloal hegemon, it is acti&ely see+ing tosupplant the Pnited tates in !sia so that it can play a similar role in the region. Ahile FeiHing may ta+e a longer &iewtoward geopolitical issues than Aashington does, hinese political leaders must still e responsi&e to a domestic audiencethat demands e&er higher le&els o' prosperity. entral to hina>s aility to guarantee that prosperity is the return o'

#aiwan, and control o' the sea lines o' commerce and communication upon which it relies. Pn'ortunately, too many

A"ericans underesti"ate the i"portance o these core interests toChina and the lengths to which China will ulti"atel+ go in order toguarantee the" – e3en the use o nuclear weapons, hould hina succeed it


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pushing the Pnited tates ac+, the % can deal with regional territorial disputes ilaterally and without P..in&ol&ement. !'ter all, Aashington in&arialy ta+es the non-hinese side. hina sees the P.. as a direct competitor andostacle to its geopolitical amitions. !s such it is preparing 'or the next step in a crisis that it will li+ely instigate, control,

and conclude in the #aiwan traits. China will likel+ use the election or state"ent oa pro-independence high-ranking oJcial as the i"petus or action ,

#his is the same method it used when it red missiles in the traits in response to remar+s y then-resident Dee #eng-hui,ushering in the 1886 #aiwan traits risis. #he P.. rought an end to the mainland>s antics when the P.. IimitO and six

additional ships sailed into the traits. espite the pro-hina presidency o' )a Ging-Heou, China continues toe)pand its "issile orce targeting Taiwan and undertakes annual warga"es that si"ulate an attack on Taiwan, hina has not 'orgotten the humiliation it 'acedin 1886 and will e certain no P.. carrier groups ha&e access to the trait during the next crisis. #he econd !rtilleryorps> nuclear capailities exist to help secure the results hina see+s when the P.. is caught o;-guard, o&erwhelmed,and 'orced to either escalate a crisis or capitulate. Ahile the scenario descried is certainly not ine&itale, the 'act thanmany !merican readers will see it as implausile i' not impossile is an example o' the mirror-imaging that o'ten occurswhen attempting to understand an ad&ersary. hina is not the Pnited tates nor do hinese leaders thin+ li+e their

counterparts in the Pnited tates. Bnless we gi3e serious thought to possi%lescenarios where nuclear con>ict could occur$ the Bnited /tates "a+%e unprepared or a situation that escalates %e+ond its a%ilit+ topre3ent a catastrophe,


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Ar"s /ales PlanTaiwan is pushing or "ore weapons ro" the B/2innick 1#$

China0s stead+ acuisition o ad3anced weaponr+ has dri3en

a"%itious Taiwanese reuire"ents$ including plans to procurestealth


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will appro3e the contentious sale, #he prolem is that &ei'ing wouldconsider an+ sale o ad3anced


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H-#Taiwan wants H-#(s$ China also reacts strongl+ againstar"s salesTaipei Ti"es 11$ ep 2, #aiwan plans to reEuest "-L5s 'rom P,

http://www.taipeitimes.com/Iews/'ront/archi&es/211/8/2/2L51L71/2

Taiwan would %e pleased i the B/ has indeed agreed to help upgrade its Ceeto' "-16!/F aircra't and plans to "o3e toward sell ing it the e3en "oresophisticated H-# "odel at so"e point$ Deput+ 2inister o @ationalDeense Andrew ang 楊念祖 said in %ichmond, Jirginia, on unday. =The retroeet is part o Taiwan(s national deense polic+, 4t would%e great i the B/ appro3es the deal$ ang said on the sidelines othis +ear(s B/-Taiwan Deense 4ndustr+ Conerence, to which he led a #aiwanese delegation. The ad"inistration o B/ President &arack O%a"a hasreportedl+ decided to sell Taiwan a B/NI,6 %illion ar"s package thatwould include an upgrade to Taiwan(s H-1:AQ& >eet, ut not the more

ad&anced "-16/s #aipei is eager to acEuire. #wo P congressional aides told reporters that the Pepartment o' tate ga&e a rieng on apitol *ill on its decision on "riday, ut has yet to issue a 'ormalnotication o' the intended sale. !n announcement on the sale is expected y the end o' this month. Gangsaid #aiwan and the P ha&e consistently addressed security issues in accordance with the #aiwan%elations !ct. =!rms procurements should 'ollow the prescried procedures,M Gang said, adding that the Pdecision to o;er #aiwan the "-16!/F upgrade pac+age might not necessarily imply it had reHected the "-16/ deal. Ioting that the "-16!/F upgrade and the "-16/ procurement are two separate matters, Gangsaid #aiwan had not recei&ed any -'ormal notication that the P had decided against the "-16/ deal. 0n

#aipei, )inister o' Iational e'ense 3ao *ua-chu 高華柱 yesterday also denied the P would not o;er the"-16/s as part o' a new arms pac+age, adding that he had not recei&ed any o?cial in'ormation to thate;ect. 3ao said the deal had not yet een naliOed and that #aiwan had not een notied. #he "-16!/F is ahigh-per'ormance aircra't with all sorts o' comat eEuipment and 'unctions and the Ceet would e ale toper'orm e&en etter a'ter a mid-li'e upgrade, Gang said. #here were no immediate details on the pac+ageo' upgrades the P is pro&iding 'or the "-16!/Fs. *owe&er, e&en i' it includes sophisticated radar, a&ionicsand missile systems, #aiwan>s air 'orce will still lag 'ar ehind its hinese counterpart, de'ense analysts

say. ! entagon report issued last year painted a grim picture o' #aiwan>s air de'ense capailities, sayingmany o' its 4 comat aircra't would not e a&ailale to help withstand an attac+ 'rom hina. Aang 3ao-

cheng 王高成, a military expert at #am+ang Pni&ersity, said #aiwan>s air de'enses would get a li't 'rom theupgrade, ut that the country is still at a pro'ound disad&antage compared with FeiHing in the numer o'third-generation warplanes it has at its disposal. =#aiwan has 'allen ehind in air superiority as o' now, notto mention the 'act that hina is de&eloping 'ourth-generation stealth ghters, which could e &erypower'ul,M Aang said. =#he upgrade program will not ll the &acuum le't o&er y the asence o' the "-16/s.M !s+ed whether a possile setac+ in the attempt to uy "-16/s reCected a P change in itspolicy toward #aiwan 'ollowing its increasing reliance on FeiHing in recent years, Gang said he did not thin+the P would ta+e sides. #he #aiwanese go&ernment remains condent o' P neutrality in dealing with

cross-strait issues, he said. As to whether Taiwan would procure a ne)t-generation aircrat such as the H-# $ ang said Taiwan wouldde


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retaliation o3er ar"s sales to Taiwan$ %ut Taipei as well, “The"ainland 7China8 should not sit idl+ %+ concerning this protection"one+ paid %+ Taiwan, 4nstead$ it should re"ind Taipei that such anin3est"ent will %ring onl+ disaster $ it said, “&ei'ing used to seekre3enge on Washington ater ar"s sales to Taiwan, #his time, it should alsoinclude #aipei as FeiHing has more le&erage on the island.M FeiHing should noti'y Aashington and #aipei in

ad&ance o' the ='ate'ul conseEuencesM o' a new arms sale, it said, adding that pressuring #aipei wouldproduce etter results than directly con'ronting Aashington. =0n 1884, #ur+ey threatened Kree+ ypriotsthat it would destroy any missiles imported 'rom Kreece and installed in areas controlled y Kree+ypriots. #his wor+ed well,M the editorial said. =#he mainland has ne&er ta+en such a stance against #aiwan'or 'ear that it might e going too 'ar. *owe&er, FeiHing should no longer rule out such measures any morei' it wants to pre&ent the island 'rom o&erstepping the line.M

ills Taiwanese econ$ also H-# wouldn(t gi3e Taiwan a"ilitar+ ad3antage&utts and 2cinne+ 1:$ !pril 4, #he Iational 0nterest, Ahat Aould hina o i' !mericaold #aiwan "-L5sS, http://nationalinterest.org/'eature/what-would-china-do-i'-america-sold-taiwan-'-L5s-15667

Ahat would happen i the Bnited /tates decides to sell its new H-#=ightning 44


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those with ties to *apan and A"erica $ %+ instructing the 2inistr+ oCo""erce to use the new anti-"onopol+ law to the ullest e)tent,Wang ishan$ the Part+(s anti-corruption cMar$ chi"es inK “We shouldalso pa+ special attention to the esti"ated one "illion Taiwaneseli3ing on the "ainland and initiate disciplinar+ in3estigations against

an+ two-aced entrepreneurs who %enet li&e y their word, why should we li&e y oursSM "an hanglong, the other &ice chairman o' the), sha+es his head angrily. Iot satised with the sutle response, he says: =Ahy don>t you recogniOethat we are now in a direct ri&alry with the Pnited tatesS #his is Hust the latest o' their tric+s, alongside

the Felgrade emassy oming, their support o' #ietan re&olutionaries and militariOation o' outh hinaea. The+ are slowl+ encircling us$ 'ust as the+ are ussia through@ATO e)pansion, We should ha3e a


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China could sell DH-61 anti-ship %allistic "issiles to 4ran, Thisweapon s+ste" would allow the 4ranians to deter B,/, aircratcarriers aggressi3el+ stationed in &ahrain$ signi


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elations Ad3,B/ ar"s sales to Taiwan har" China relations which areon the %rink Associated Press 1?$ "oster 3lug and %oert Furns in Aashington, harles *utOler and

Killian Aong in FeiHing, and !nnie *uang in #aipei contriuted to this report. hina: #aiwan arms sales harmnational interest, http://www.dailyrepulic.com/archi&es/china-taiwan-arms-sales-harm-national-interest/ F$0@0IK WXM China>s 'oreign minister warned that B,/, plans to sell N:,I %illiono ar"s to Taiwan will har" Chinese eforts to uni+ peaceull+ with theisland, the ministry said today, a'ter hina suspended P.. military exchanges and threatenedunprecedented sanctions against A"erican de'ense companies. "oreign )inister Gang @iechi said the planned weapons sales to sel'-go&erning #aiwan, which FeiHing claims as its territory,were a WXYcrude inter'erence in hina>s internal a;airsWX and would hurt its national security.

&ei'ing (s strong response to "riday>s P.. announcement o' the weapons sales, while notentirely unexpected, was swi't and indicated that it plans to put up a greaterchallenge than usual as it deals with the most sensiti&e topic in P..-hina relations.WXXThis is the strongest reaction we(3e seen so ar in recent +ears,WXsaid tephanie #. 3leine-!hlrandt, northeast !sia proHect director 'or the 0nternational risis Kroup.WXYhina is really loo+ing to see what +ind o' reaction it>s going to recei&eWX 'rom resident Farac+

(ama, she said. China(s Deense 2inistr+ said the ar"s sales would causese3ere har" to o3erall B,/,-China cooperation , Jice ministerial-le&el tal+s onarms control and strategic security were postponed. e'ense )inistry spo+esman *uang s so&ereignty. Ae will ne&er gi&e in orcompromise in this issue, *uang said in a statement. 0n comments made during a &isit to yprus onaturday, "oreign )inister Gang urged Aashington to respect hina>s interests and re&o+e the arms saledecision immediately to a&oid undermining ilateral relations, the "oreign )inistry said. *e said the P..sales WXYHeopardiOed hina>s national security and hina>s peace'ul reunication e;orts.WX #he warningcame as the P.. see+s FeiHing>s help on issues including the gloal nancial crisis and nuclear stando;s in

Iorth 3orea and 0ran. Tensions were alread+ high ater recent B,/,co""ents on 4nternet reedo" and a dispute %etween Loogle andChina$ as well as O%a"a(s plan to "eet with Ti%etan spiritual leader

the Dalai =a"a this +ear, hina>s Jice "oreign )inister *e Ga'ei told P.. !massador @on*untsman that the sales o' Flac+ *aw+ helicopters, atriot !d&anced apaility-L missiles and otherweapons to #aiwan would WXYcause conseEuences that oth sides are unwilling to see,WX the ministry

said. The "inistr+ also threatened sanctions against B,/, co"paniesin3ol3ed in the ar"s sales$ which hasn(t happened in past sales toTaiwan, WXY(ur action regarding #aiwan rein'orces our commitment to staility in the region,WX P..tate epartment spo+esman .@. rowley said in Aashington on aturday. WXYAe +now hina has adi;erent &iew. Ki&en our road relationship with hina, we will manage this issue as we ha&e in thepast.WX #he Pnited tates is #aiwan>s most important ally and largest arms supplier, and it>s ound y law

to ensure the island is ale to respond to hinese threats. China responds angril+ to an+proposed ar"s sales $ howe3er$ and it also cut of "ilitar+ ties withthe B,/, in 2 a'ter the 'ormer Fush administration announced a multiillion-dollar arms sale to #aiwan. ! similar cuto; o' military ties was expected this time, ut it comes as Aashington and FeiHingwanted to impro&e normally 'rosty relations etween their armed 'orces. #he P.. has tried to use military&isits to uild trust with FeiHing and learn more aout the aims o' its massi&e military uildup. WXY0n thepast, these +inds o' suspensions ha&e lasted 'or three to six months, with some parts o' the military-to-military relationship suspended eyond that,WX said hillip aunders, a distinguished research 'ellow atthe Iational e'ense Pni&ersity in Aashington. WXY0 expect something similar this time.WX 0t>s not +nownwhether the arms sale will a;ect resident *u @intao>s expected &isit to the P.. this year or a summit onnuclear sa'ety in the P.. this spring. $xperts on hina warned FeiHing could ta+e 'urther steps to punish

the Pnited tates to show its new'ound power and condence in world a;airs. The latestsuspension o "ilitar+ ties should afect planned 3isits to China %+


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B,/, /ecretar+ o Deense o%ert Lates and Ad"iral 2ichael 2ullen$the chair"an o the B,/, *oint Chies o /taf, A 3isit to the B,/, %+the Chinese "ilitar+(s chie o the general staf$ Len, Chen &ingde$could also %e called of, #he P.. ongress has L days to comment on the newest arms salese'ore the plan goes 'orward. Dawma+ers traditionally ha&e supported such sales. #hough #aiwan>s tieswith hina ha&e warmed consideraly since #aiwanese resident )a Ging-Heou too+ o?ce 2 months ago,

FeiHing has threatened to in&ade i' the island e&er 'ormaliOes its de 'acto independence. hina has morethan 1, allistic missiles aimed at #aiwan. )a told reporters aturday that the deal should not anger themainland ecause the weapons are de'ensi&e, not o;ensi&e.

B/-China cooperation sol3es glo%al threatsHingar Y Larrett 1, F%$I# (A%("# $I#$% (I 0I#$%I!#0(I!D $P%0#G, hina-Pooperation: 3ey to the Kloal "uture, http://cuse'.org.h+/wp-content/uploads/214/5/5Zeng.pd'

The glo%al uture is likel+ to %e increasingl+ 3olatile and uncertain, #he rate o' change is increasing, dri3en %+ the accelerating pace otechnological de3elop"ent$ unprecedented ur%aniMation and growtho the glo%al "iddle class$ and a wide range o challenges %e+ondthe control o an+ one countr+ ut potentially a;ecting the prosperity and security o' allcountries. isrupti&e change in one geographic or 'unctional area will spread Euic+ly.. Io country, and

certainly not those with the largest populations and largest economies, will e immune. Llo%alchallenges like cli"ate change$ ood and water shortages$ andresource scarcities will shape the strategic conte)t or all nations andreEuire reconsideration o' traditional national concerns such as so&ereignty and maximiOing the aility o'

national leaders to control their country>s destiny, What China and the Bnited /tatesdo, indi&idually and together, will ha3e a "a'or i"pact on the uture o theglo%al s+ste", !s importantly, our indi&idual 'ates will e inextricaly lin+ed to how that 'utureplays out. #he three illustrati&e scenarios s+etched out elow underscore how critical theuture o the B/-China relationship is to each countr+ and to theworld. T Kloal ri't and $rosion the present world traHectory: 0n a world in which nations 'ail toresol&e gloal prolems and strengthen mechanisms o' gloal cooperation, go&ernments gradually turninward. $ach nation see+s to protect and ad&ance its own narrow national interests or to preser&e anunsustainale status Euo that is rapidly changing in ways that erode the international order. #heinternational community>s lac+ o' aility to cooperate to meet gloal challenges leads to internationalcrises and instaility. T Qero-um Aorld: Pnsustainale dri't leads to a world o' predominantly Oero-sumcompetition and conCict in the 'ace o' se&ere resource constraints. #he result is economic crises andinternal instaility as well as interstate con'rontation. #here is ris+ o' military conCict etween maHorpowers, which increases gloal mistrust and uncertainty and 'osters an =each nation 'or itsel'M mentalitythat 'urther undermines the aility o' states to cooperate in the 'ace o' growing common challenges. T

Kloal %e&italiOation and ooperation: To escape the perils o drit or Mero-su"co"petition, leaders in countries with the most to lose work together to manage andta+e ad&antage o' gloal challenges and megatrends. Cooperation ma+es it possile to achie&e win-win outcomes that a&oid or "itigate negati3e conseuences o increasedde"and or resources and the i"pact o cli"ate change as well as to

harness new technologies to i"pro3e li3ing conditions throughsustaina%le de3elop"ent, ooperation creates and utiliOes new transnational institutions topre3ent con>ict and enhance securit+ or all, China and the Bnited/tates %eco"e "ore prosperous as we work together,


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B/-China elations sol3e laundr+ list o i"pactsK Asiansta%ilit+$ @oo War$ 4ndia War$ and *apan&rMeMinski 1 [Qigniew FrOeOins+i, an !merican political scientist, geostrategist, and statesmanwho ser&ed as a counselor to Dyndon F. @ohnson 'rom 1866R186 . =#he P-hina relationship is &ital togloal staility. Kood thing it isnt doomedM, http://www.csmonitor.com/ommentary/Kloal-Jiewpoint/21L/21/#he-P-hina-relationship-is-&ital-to-gloal-staility.-Kood-thing-it-isn-t-doomed ,

"eruary 1Lth, 21L//%ahul\

implistic agitation regarding the potential Chinese "ilitar+ threat toA"erica ignores the %enes characteriOation o' the (ama administration>s relati&e realancing o' 'ocus

toward !sia as a =pi&otM R a word ne&er used y the president R with military connotations. 0n 'act, the newe;ort was only meant to e a constructi&e rea?rmation o' the unchanged reality that the P is oth a

acic and !tlantic power. #a+ing all these 'actors into account, the real threat to a sta%leB/-China relationship does not currentl+ arise ro" an+ hostileintentions on the part o either countr+$ %ut ro" the distur%ingpossi%ilit+ that a re3italiMed Asia "a+ slide into the kind onationalistic er3or that precipitated con>icts in 6?th-centur+ !uropeo3er resources$ territor+$ or power. #here are plenty o' potential Cash points: @orthorea 3s, /outh orea$ China 3s, *apan$ China 3s, 4ndia$ or 4ndia 3s,Pakistan. #he danger is that i' go&ernments incite or allow nationalistic 'er&or as a +ind o' sa'ety &al&eit can spin out o' control. 0n such a potentially explosi&e context, B/ political and econo"icin3ol3e"ent in Asia can %e a cruciall+ needed sta%iliMing actor, 0ndeed,!merica>s current role in !sia should e analogous to Kreat Fritain>s role in 18th-century $urope as aconstructi&e =o;-shoreM alancing inCuence with no entanglements in the region>s ri&alries and no attemptto attain domination o&er the region. #o e e;ecti&e, constructi&e and strategically sensiti&e engagementin !sia y the P must not e ased solely on its existing alliances with democratic @apan and outh 3orea

R which is in hina>s interests ecause o' its stailiOing impact. $ngagement must alsomean institutionaliOing !merican and hinese cooperation. !ccordingly, !merica and hina should &ery

delierati&ely not let their economic competition turn into political hostility. 2utual engage"ent%ilaterall+ and "ultilaterall+ – and not reciprocal e)clusion – is whatis needed, Hor e)a"ple$ the B/ ought not seek a “trans-Paci


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T


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!cono"ic engage"ent

!cono"ic engage"ent reers to eforts to change the%eha3ior o the target state

Celik 11$ ro'., 0nternational tudies, Pppsala P. $(I()0 !I#0(I !I $IK!K$)$I#(D00$, 211, 11.

!cono"ic engage"ent policies are strategic integration eha&ior whichin&ol&es with the target state. $ngagement policies di;er 'rom other tools in$conomic iplomacy. #hey target to deepen the econo"ic relations tocreate econo"ic intersection$ interconnectedness$ and "utualdependence and $$F roadcrosssection o' economic disciplines, interagency contacts, and expertise insuch areas as trade, nance, energy, de&elopment, transportation, and

telecommunications help ensure this coordination.

Fureau o' $conomic, $nergy, and Fusiness !;airs, P.. epartment o' tate, A*!# 0 #(#!D $(I()0$IK!K$)$I#S, @an. 17, 28. %etrie&ed @an. 8, 21L 'rom http://21-28.state.go&/e/ee/8286.htm.

!n accurate accounting o' a nation>s total engagement must includeeconomic policies as well as, trade, remittances, and 'oreign directin&estment. 0n these areas, the P.. leads the world in total economicengagement with the de&eloping world. #he pri&ate donations o' !mericancitiOens, military emergency aid and peace+eeping and go&ernmentassistance pro&ide the primary sources 'or de&elopment nancing.

http://2001-2009.state.gov/e/eeb/92986.htmhttp://2001-2009.state.gov/e/eeb/92986.htm


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China – TaiwanTaiwan is a part o China$ One-China Principle and "ultipletreaties pro3eTaiwan Afairs OJce ??$ and the 0n'ormation (?ce o' the tate ouncil,

http://csis.org/les/media/csis/programs/taiwan/timeline/sums/timelineZdocs/0Z2221.htm

Taiwan is an inaliena%le part o China , All the acts and laws a%outTaiwan pro3e that Taiwan is an inaliena%le part o Chinese territor+, 0n !pril 185, through a war o' aggression against hina, @apan 'orced theNing go&ernment to sign the uneEual #reaty o' himonose+i, and 'orcilyoccupied #aiwan. 0n @uly 18L7, @apan launched an all-out war o' aggressionagainst hina. 4n Dece"%er 15I1$ the Chinese go3ern"ent issued theProcla"ation o China0s Declaration o War Against *apan $announcing to the world that all treaties$ agree"ents and contractsconcerning /ino-*apanese relations$ including the Treat+ o/hi"onoseki$ had %een a%rogated$ and that China would reco3er

Taiwan, 4n Dece"%er 15I$ the Cairo Declaration was issued %+ theChinese$ B,/, and &ritish go3ern"ents$ stipulating that *apan shouldreturn to China all the territories it had stolen ro" the Chinese$including @ortheast China$ Taiwan and the Penghu Archipelago, ThePotsda" Procla"ation signed %+ China$ the Bnited /tates and&ritain in 15I# Elater adhered to %+ the /o3iet BnionF stipulated that.The ter"s o the Cairo Declaration shall %e carried out,. 4n Augusto that +ear$ *apan declared surrender and pro"ised in itsinstru"ent o surrender that it would aithull+ ul


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legitimate go&ernment representing the entire people o' the eoples%epulic o' hina.

Taiwan is politicall+ China

2attlin

0n this &ein, @acos clearly disli+es re'erences to the hinese origins o' &arious #aiwanese political structures and practices. 0nstead, he argues that #aiwantoday has undergone cultural change and that people on the island today 'eelthat they ha&e a #aiwanese identity. 0 do not dispute this assertion. *owe&er,this statement misses the point. Iowhere do 0 claim that people on the islandtoday still 'eel hinese in terms o' political identity. Ahen 0 re'er to Taiwan(senduring Chinese legac+, it is in three senses: 1 the 2T politicaland part+ s+ste"s originated on the "ainland, 2 the "odes opolitical co"petition %ear the legac+ o earlier political struggles on

the "ainland, and L Taiwan(s political culture is still afected %+eatures associated with Chinese culture,


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Taiwan is its own so3ereign state$ 4 law pro3es *aco%s ?5$ ro'essor o' !sian Danguages and tudies, recei&ed his !F., )! and h degrees 'romolumia Pni&ersity in the Pnited tates, ! Dongitudinal $xamination toward Pnderstanding Ahatonstitutes a *ealthy !pproach to Falance in the #aiwan trait p.22-2L

Pnderlying this concern is the issue o' #aiwan>s so&ereignty. According to international law

estalished as a result o' the Con3ention on ights and Duties o /tates, signed at)onte&ideo on ecemer 26, 18LL, Taiwan clearl+ "eets the our criteria oso3ereignt+: a permanent population, a dened territory, a go&ernment, and the capacity to enterinto relations with other states. 4n addition$ Article o the Con3ention "akesclear that “ the political e)istence o the state is independent orecognition %+ other states , $&en e'ore recognition the state has the right to de'end itsintegrity and independence.M24 Pn'ortunately, o&er the years and during his presidency )a seems to ha&e

shi'ted ground se&eral times on the issue o' #aiwan>s so&ereignty. uring his presidential campaign,2a stated clearly that Taiwan, which he sometimes called the %(, is a so3ereigncountr+, 0n his inauguration speech, howe&er, he stated, =the +eystone 'or a nal solution to the cross-strait prolem is not in a conCict o&er so&ereignty, ut in ways o' li'e and core &alues.M25 ! year later, in apress con'erence on )ay 18, 28, resident )a stated that the so&ereignty o' the %( elongs to the

people. )a 'urther said, =#aiwan is the %(^Ae should clear this up 'rom a historical and constitutional&iewpoint. #he pulic must not e con'used into thin+ing #aiwan>s so&ereignty is undened.M26Pn'ortunately, his presidential spo+esman then modied this statement y adding a hinese characterthat changed the meaning to =#aiwan is part o' the %epulic o' hina.M27


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2isc,


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!)port Control PlanThe B/HL will %an the e)port o deense-related s+ste"sintegration sotware$ high-resolution co""ercial i"ager+technologies$ co""ercial sensor and laser technologies$

and co""erciall+ applica%le guidance and na3igationtechnologies to China,

!)port control sol3es China "ilitar+ aggression againstTaiwan/egal ?I$ "%, )aurice %. Kreenerg enior "ellow 'or hina tudies and irector o' the igital andyerspace olicy rogram, http://www.c'r.org/china/practical-engagement-drawing-ne-line-us-china-trade/p76L

A successul e)port control polic+ will ocus on how the Chinese"ilitar+ "a+ use an+ dual-use technolog+ acuired ro" the Bnited

/tates as well as whether the use o' this technology would ha&e any signicant impact on the military outcome o' apossile conCict. "or example, does the import o' microprocessors 'rom P.. companies enale the D! to de&elop military

capailities that would otherwise e eyond its reach within a limited time periodS18 urrently, the Bnited/tates is "ost concerned with "ilitar+ technologies that couldsigni


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specis dependence on'oreign suppliers and lea&e FeiHing &ulnerale to the type o' counterintelligence used y the Pnited tates in (peration$nduring "reedom. uring that campaign, the Pnited tates paid millions o' dollars to a commercial rmU pace 0magingU'or exclusi&e rights to photographs ta+en ao&e the war Oone, primarily to deny !l Naeda the aility to monitor P..troop mo&e-ments.25 Aithout dedicated high-resolution imaging systems o' its own, hina 'aces the ris+ o' eitherattleeld lindness during any operation or reliance on its own lower-resolution imaging satellites. ensors are anintegral part o' =networ+-centricM war'are, ecause they can detect indi&idual &ehicles, ships, or aircra't well eyond &isualrange and also pro&ide targeting in'ormation on a near real-time asis. )any o' these sensors are commercial, o;-the-

shel' items that ha&e a small li+elihood o' eing controlled e;ecti&ely, ut the Pnited tates maintains a technologicallead in sensor input as well as in the creation o' networ+ nodes. !)port control polic+ should %econcentrated on precisel+ these areas,26 Dasers, which the D! could use to impro&e itsown targeting and to con'use the targeting o' P.. precision-guided munitions, should also e controlled, ut the Pnitedtates will ha&e limited impact on most o' these technologies. hina is de&eloping its own indigenous laser capailitiesthat it can use 'or targeting or target inter'erence.27 )ore sophisticated lasers used 'or directed-energy weapons andspace-oHect trac+ing will not e widely a&ail-ale outside o' the Pnited tates in the next 1 years and thus are moresusceptile to control.

BnauthoriMed B/ e)ports contri%ute to China(s "ilitar+"oderniMation&rauner 1#$ Aestern !rms $xports to hina p.7-, 0%0 olicy aper Io. 4L, independentinternational institute dedicated to research into conCict, armaments, arms control and disarmament

ince the collapse o' the o&iet Pnion and the 1885R86 #aiwan trait crisis, the maintenance o' Prestrictions on exports to hina has een dri&en y a roader set o' considerations related to the potentialthreat posed y hina>s military moderniOation and its implications 'or the P!>s power-proHectioncapailities, particularly in the western acic (cean.L2 #hese concerns are shared y all security-relatedranches o' the P Ko&ernment and remain prominent in P thin+ing. ! recent report y the Pepartment o' e'ense ( and the P epartment o' tate argued that hina>s military Vcould e putto use in ways that increase hina>s aility to gain diplomatic ad&antage or resol&e disputes in its 'a&our,

and possily against P national security interests>.LL According to the B/ DOD$ China(s


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sustained process o "ilitar+ "oderniMation is supported %+ ongoingeforts to gain access to "ilitar+-rele3ant technologies ro" theB/A $ including through ci3ilian ront co"panies and econo"icespionage,L4 ee+ing to limit hina>s access to these technologies is a +ey rationale 'or the P!>scontinued application o' export control restrictions on hina. e+ concerns or the B/A

include China(s i"pro3ing capa%ilities in access denialS including;short- and "ediu"-range con3entional %allistic "issiles $ land-attack and anti-ship cruise "issiles$ counter-space weapons$ and "ilitar+c+%erspace capa%ilities(Sas well as long-range strike and powerpro'ection,L5 4n recent +ears$ China(s de3elop"ent o weaponscapa%le o targeting space-%ased assets has %een a particularconcern or the B/A, A 6?16 B/ intelligence assess"ent "apped the3ulnera%ilit+ o the B/ "ilitar+(s space-%ased assets to disruption %+Chinese "ilitar+ satellites$ "issiles and ground-%ased 'a""ingtechniues,L6 Ahile e)ports o dual-use ite"s on the CC= are notco3ered %+ the B/ ar"s e"%argo, additional controls apply to certain exports o' Ditems. "or example, since the late 188s the P! has maintained strict controls on exports o'

satelliterelated technologies to hina. 0n 188 a B/ Congressional Co""ittee reporton China(s atte"pts to acuire "ilitar+ technolog+ ro" the B/A theso-called ox %eport concluded that unauthoriMed transers o satellite-related technologies had allegedl+ helped Chinese "issileprogra""es although many o' the report>s ndings, including on the extent to which the hinesemilitary enetted 'rom any trans'ers o' technology, ha&e since een challenged.L7 0n response, the P!anned oth the export o' satellite technologies to hina and the launch o' P satellites in hina.L 0n27 the P! also introduced a set o' stricter controls on exports o' D items to hina under the so-calledhina %ule.L8 0n particular, exports o' 2 categories o' D items ecame suHect to additional licensingreEuirements i' they are, or may e intended 'or, Vmilitary end-use> in hina.4 %eEuirements 'or end-usercerticates $Ps were also expanded.41 0n particular, exporters o' most D items to hina must otainan $P issued y hina>s )inistry o' ommerce )("(), regardless o' the end-user.42


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taiwan aff

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