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Putting Model Future To Work

Ian Beardsley

© 2016

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Barnard's Star /ˈbɑːrnərd/ is a very-low-mass red dwarf about six light-years away from Earth in the constellation of Ophiuchus. It is the fourth-closest known individual star to the Sun (after the three components of the Alpha Centauri system) and the closest star in the Northern Hemisphere.[16] Despite its proximity, at a dim apparent magnitude of about nine, it is not visible with the unaided eye; however, it is much brighter in the infrared than it is in visible light. (From Wikipedia)

Tau Boötis (τ Boo, τ Boötis) is an F-type main-sequence star approximately 51 light-years away[1] in the constellation of Boötes. The system is also a binary star system, with the secondary star being a red dwarf. As of 1999, an extrasolar planet has been confirmed to be orbiting the primary star. (From Wikipedia)

Since I have written a computer program that does what I did with alpha centauri, the nearest star (4 light years) I can run the program for other stars. Here I have chosen tau Barnard’s Star six light years away. And Tau Booties 51 light years away. With my program for predicting the future, I can also weight the probabilities according to whether humanity is doing the right thing or not. In my first calculation I did before my program, I weighted humanity as just as much awful, as positive: ½ weight against success and ½ weight pulling us towards success. That is all published in my work “A Mystical Whole” which now has the source code for my program and a sample running of it that corroborates my earlier findings. I have now run it for the same star, alpha centauri, with probabilities giving humans more credit to their current state with p1=1/3 against, p2=2/3 for us. Also, I did a run with p1=1/4, p2=3/4. Of course both instances turned up a sooner arrival date for making it to the stars. Those program runs will be available in this program. But first, Tau Bootes.

Ian BeardsleyApril 04, 201612:30 AM

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Usually when you write a computer program, you just input the data and it does everything. But because these calculation uses statistics and not algebra, I have to do guess work and use intuition to formulate the input from the given parameters, like those for these stars. I have made what I call a a “projection diagram” that helps me to figure out the input for a given star. Here are those I made for Barnard’s Star and Tau Bootes:

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Unfortunately I can not run projections for Tau Bootes because my computer can not handle 100 factorial. It returns infinite. I could handle Barnard’s Star just fine, but the best star in my mind was the original I used, Alpha Centauri, for projecting the future. When a star is both the same spectral class as the sun, and the closest star to you, you know it was made for the job! Nonetheless, to hand something like Tau Bootes, I would need a more powerful computer. Here are the runs of the programs for Barnard’s Star, and Tau Bootes:

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jharvard@appliance (~): cd Dropbox jharvard@appliance (~/Dropbox): ./modelfuture

(p^n1)(q^n2)[W=N!/(n1!)(n2!)] x=e^(c*t) W is the probability of landing on the star in N jumps. N=n1+n2, n1=number of one light year jumps left, n2=number of one light year jumps right. What is 1, the nearest whole number of light years to the star, and 2, what is the star's name? Enter 1: 6 Enter 2: Barnard's Star name: Barnard's Distance: 6 What is n1? 1 What is n2? 7 Since N=n1+n2, N=8 What is the probability, p(u), of jumping to the left? 1 What is the probability, p(v), of jumpint to the left? 2 What is the probability, q(y), of jumping to the right? 1 What is the probability, q(z), of jumping to the right? 2 p=u:v q=y:z N factorial = 1.000000 N factorial = 2.000000 N factorial = 6.000000 N factorial = 24.000000 N factorial = 120.000000 N factorial = 720.000000 N factorial = 5040.000000 N factorial = 40320.000000 n1 factorial = 1.000000 n2 factorial = 1.000000 W=15750.000000 percent W=15750.00 percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 2.000000 W=7875.000000 percent W=7875.00 percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 6.000000 W=2625.000000 percent W=2625.00 percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 24.000000 W=656.250000 percent W=656.00 percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 120.000000 W=131.250000 percent W=131.00 percent rounded to nearest integral

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n2 factorial = 720.000000 W=21.875000 percent W=22.00 percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 5040.000000 W=3.125000 percent W=3.00 percent rounded to nearest integral What is t in years, the time over which the growth occurs? 40 log(W)=0.477121 loga/t=0.011928 growthrate constant=0.027471 log 100 = 2, log e = 0.4342, therfore T=2/[(0.4342)(growthrate)] T=167.67 years What was the begin year for the period of growth? 1969 Object achieved in 2136.67 jharvard@appliance (~/Dropbox):

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jharvard@appliance (~): cd Dropbox jharvard@appliance (~/Dropbox): ./modelfuture

(p^n1)(q^n2)[W=N!/(n1!)(n2!)] x=e^(c*t) W is the probability of landing on the star in N jumps. N=n1+n2, n1=number of one light year jumps left, n2=number of one light year jumps right. What is 1, the nearest whole number of light years to the star, and 2, what is the star's name? Enter 1: 50 Enter 2: taubootes Star name: taubootes Distance: 50 What is n1? 25 What is n2? 75 Since N=n1+n2, N=100 What is the probability, p(u), of jumping to the left? 1 What is the probability, p(v), of jumpint to the left? 2 What is the probability, q(y), of jumping to the right? 1 What is the probability, q(z), of jumping to the right? 2 p=u:v q=y:z N factorial = 1.000000 N factorial = 2.000000 N factorial = 6.000000 N factorial = 24.000000 N factorial = 120.000000 N factorial = 720.000000 N factorial = 5040.000000 N factorial = 40320.000000 N factorial = 362880.000000 N factorial = 3628800.000000 N factorial = 39916800.000000 N factorial = 479001600.000000 N factorial = 6227020800.000000 N factorial = 87178289152.000000 N factorial = 1307674279936.000000 N factorial = 20922788478976.000000 N factorial = 355687414628352.000000 N factorial = 6402373530419200.000000 N factorial = 121645096004222976.000000 N factorial = 2432902023163674624.000000 N factorial = 51090940837169725440.000000 N factorial = 1124000724806013026304.000000 N factorial = 25852017444594485559296.000000 N factorial = 620448454699064672387072.000000

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N factorial = 15511211079246240657965056.000000 N factorial = 403291499589617303175561216.000000 N factorial = 10888870415132690890901946368.000000 N factorial = 304888371623715344945254498304.000000 N factorial = 8841763079319199907069674127360.000000 N factorial = 265252889961724357982831874408448.000000 N factorial = 8222839685527520666638122083155968.000000 N factorial = 263130869936880661332419906660990976.000000 N factorial = 8683318509846655538309012935952826368.000000 N factorial = 295232822996533287161359432338880069632.000000 N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf

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N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf N factorial = inf n1 factorial = 1.000000 n1 factorial = 2.000000 n1 factorial = 6.000000 n1 factorial = 24.000000 n1 factorial = 120.000000 n1 factorial = 720.000000 n1 factorial = 5040.000000 n1 factorial = 40320.000000 n1 factorial = 362880.000000 n1 factorial = 3628800.000000 n1 factorial = 39916800.000000 n1 factorial = 479001600.000000 n1 factorial = 6227020800.000000 n1 factorial = 87178289152.000000 n1 factorial = 1307674279936.000000 n1 factorial = 20922788478976.000000 n1 factorial = 355687414628352.000000 n1 factorial = 6402373530419200.000000

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n1 factorial = 121645096004222976.000000 n1 factorial = 2432902023163674624.000000 n1 factorial = 51090940837169725440.000000 n1 factorial = 1124000724806013026304.000000 n1 factorial = 25852017444594485559296.000000 n1 factorial = 620448454699064672387072.000000 n1 factorial = 15511211079246240657965056.000000 n2 factorial = 1.000000 W=inf percent W=inf percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 2.000000 W=inf percent W=inf percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 6.000000 W=inf percent W=inf percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 24.000000 W=inf percent W=inf percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 120.000000 W=inf percent W=inf percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 720.000000 W=inf percent W=inf percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 5040.000000 W=inf percent W=inf percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 40320.000000 W=inf percent W=inf percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 362880.000000 W=inf percent W=inf percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 3628800.000000 W=inf percent W=inf percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 39916800.000000 W=inf percent W=inf percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 479001600.000000 W=inf percent W=inf percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 6227020800.000000 W=inf percent W=inf percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 87178289152.000000

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W=inf percent W=inf percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 1307674279936.000000 W=inf percent W=inf percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 20922788478976.000000 W=inf percent W=inf percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 355687414628352.000000 W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 6402373530419200.000000 W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 121645096004222976.000000 W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 2432902023163674624.000000 W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 51090940837169725440.000000 W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 1124000724806013026304.000000 W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 25852017444594485559296.000000 W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 620448454699064672387072.000000 W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 15511211079246240657965056.000000 W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 403291499589617303175561216.000000 W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 10888870415132690890901946368.000000 W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 304888371623715344945254498304.000000 W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 8841763079319199907069674127360.000000 W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral

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n2 factorial = 265252889961724357982831874408448.000000 W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 8222839685527520666638122083155968.000000 W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 263130869936880661332419906660990976.000000 W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 8683318509846655538309012935952826368.000000 W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 295232822996533287161359432338880069632.000000 W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent

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W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf

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W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = inf W=-nan percent W=-nan percent rounded to nearest integral What is t in years, the time over which the growth occurs?

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jharvard@appliance (~): cd Dropbox jharvard@appliance (~/Dropbox): ./modelfuture

(p^n1)(q^n2)[W=N!/(n1!)(n2!)] x=e^(c*t) W is the probability of landing on the star in N jumps. N=n1+n2, n1=number of one light year jumps left, n2=number of one light year jumps right. What is 1, the nearest whole number of light years to the star, and 2, what is the star's name? Enter 1: 4 Enter 2: alphacentauri Star name: alphacentauri Distance: 4 What is n1? 3 What is n2? 7 Since N=n1+n2, N=10 What is the probability, p(u), of jumping to the left? 1 What is the probability, p(v), of jumpint to the left? 3 What is the probability, q(y), of jumping to the right? 2 What is the probability, q(z), of jumping to the right? 3 p=u:v q=y:z N factorial = 1.000000 N factorial = 2.000000 N factorial = 6.000000 N factorial = 24.000000 N factorial = 120.000000 N factorial = 720.000000 N factorial = 5040.000000 N factorial = 40320.000000 N factorial = 362880.000000 N factorial = 3628800.000000 n1 factorial = 1.000000 n1 factorial = 2.000000 n1 factorial = 6.000000 n2 factorial = 1.000000 W=131101.968750 percent W=131102.00 percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 2.000000 W=65550.984375 percent W=65551.00 percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 6.000000 W=21850.328125 percent W=21850.00 percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 24.000000 W=5462.582031 percent

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W=5463.00 percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 120.000000 W=1092.516479 percent W=1093.00 percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 720.000000 W=182.086075 percent W=182.00 percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 5040.000000 W=26.012295 percent W=26.00 percent rounded to nearest integral What is t in years, the time over which the growth occurs? 40 log(W)=1.414973 loga/t=0.035374 growthrate constant=0.081470 log 100 = 2, log e = 0.4342, therfore T=2/[(0.4342)(growthrate)] T=56.54 years What was the begin year for the period of growth? 1969 Object achieved in 2025.54 jharvard@appliance (~/Dropbox):

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jharvard@appliance (~): cd Dropbox jharvard@appliance (~/Dropbox): ./modelfuture

(p^n1)(q^n2)[W=N!/(n1!)(n2!)] x=e^(c*t) W is the probability of landing on the star in N jumps. N=n1+n2, n1=number of one light year jumps left, n2=number of one light year jumps right. What is 1, the nearest whole number of light years to the star, and 2, what is the star's name? Enter 1: 4 Enter 2: alphacentauri Star name: alphacentauri Distance: 4 What is n1? 3 What is n2? 7 Since N=n1+n2, N=10 What is the probability, p(u), of jumping to the left? 1 What is the probability, p(v), of jumpint to the left? 4 What is the probability, q(y), of jumping to the right? 3 What is the probability, q(z), of jumping to the right? 4 p=u:v q=y:z N factorial = 1.000000 N factorial = 2.000000 N factorial = 6.000000 N factorial = 24.000000 N factorial = 120.000000 N factorial = 720.000000 N factorial = 5040.000000 N factorial = 40320.000000 N factorial = 362880.000000 N factorial = 3628800.000000 n1 factorial = 1.000000 n1 factorial = 2.000000 n1 factorial = 6.000000 n2 factorial = 1.000000 W=126142.273438 percent W=126142.00 percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 2.000000 W=63071.136719 percent W=63071.00 percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 6.000000 W=21023.712891 percent W=21024.00 percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 24.000000 W=5255.928223 percent

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W=5256.00 percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 120.000000 W=1051.185547 percent W=1051.00 percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 720.000000 W=175.197601 percent W=175.00 percent rounded to nearest integral n2 factorial = 5040.000000 W=25.028229 percent W=25.00 percent rounded to nearest integral What is t in years, the time over which the growth occurs? 40 log(W)=1.397940 loga/t=0.034949 growthrate constant=0.080489 log 100 = 2, log e = 0.4342, therfore T=2/[(0.4342)(growthrate)] T=57.23 years What was the begin year for the period of growth? 1969 Object achieved in 2026.23 jharvard@appliance (~/Dropbox):

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