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Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Economic Policy of Visegrad Countrieson the Way of European Integration
‘The Hungarian Case’alias
From the TOP to the BOTTOM
KUTTOR, Dániel
University of Miskolc,Department of Regional Economics
Institute of World and Regional Economics
2nd – 4th December 2013
Tbilisi - Georgia
Ivane JavahkishviliIvane JavahkishviliTbilisi State University, Faculty of EconomicsTbilisi State University, Faculty of Economics
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Introduction the country and the University of Miskolc
Lessons learnt from HungaryThe Socialist heritage
The mission
90es – Crisis management and stabilization
2000es – EU integration
Spatial and sectorial aspect of transformation
ContentContent
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Current Hungary
Introduction of HungaryIntroduction of Hungaryand the University of Miskolcand the University of Miskolc
• Small, mid-sized country in East Central Europe
• Land-locked, but rich in waters (rivers, lakes, thermal springs)
• Mainly flat (2/3 of the country)
• Budapest (metro area) vs. Countryside (Miskolc, 4th city)
• Population: ca. 9.9 Million (ranked 88th)
• Economy: ca. 197 Billion $ PPP (ranked 54th)
• Development level:
- GDPpc: ca. 22 000 $ PPP (ranked 48th)
- HDI: 0.831 (ranked 37th)
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Current Hungary
Introduction of HungaryIntroduction of Hungaryand the University of Miskolcand the University of Miskolc
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
University of Miskolc
Introduction of HungaryIntroduction of Hungaryand the University of Miskolcand the University of Miskolc
• Founded in Selmecbánya (SK) in 1735
• 1919 – Sopron
• 1949 – Miskolc, Technical University
• 1990 – University of Miskolc
Number of students: 13 000
Number of Faculties: 7+1
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
University of Miskolc, Faculty of Economics
Introduction of HungaryIntroduction of Hungaryand the University of Miskolcand the University of Miskolc
• Founded in 1987
• 1993 – PHD School
• 1996 – 5-year courses, credit-system
• 2006 – Bologna-conform system
Number of students:
85 >>> 3 000
Number of Institutions:
4 >>> 17
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
University of Miskolc, Faculty of Economics
Introduction of HungaryIntroduction of Hungaryand the University of Miskolcand the University of Miskolc
BA courses
• Management
• Trade and marketing
• Financing and accounting
• International Business Economics
• Tourism
• Human resources
MA courses
• Marketing
• Master of Business Administration
• Logistics
• International Business Economics
• Regional and Environmental Economics
• Accounting
• Entrepreneurial
• Management
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
VisegradVisegrad EconomiesEconomiesJust a snapshot… Where are we now?
KOF Index of Globalization
The KOF Index of Globalization measures the three main dimensions of globalization:
• economic • social • and political.
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from HungaryThe Socialist heritage The Socialist heritage
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Per
Capita G
DP
t
Western_EuropeEastern_Europe
GDP pc(int. $, 1990 prices)
GDP pc(Western Europe = 100%)
Name1950 1973 1990 1950 1973 1990
Czechoslovakia 3501 7041 8517 69,84% 57,91% 50,48%
Poland 2447 5340 5115 48,81% 43,92% 30,32%
Hungary 2480 5596 6471 49,47% 46,02% 38,35%
Eastern Europe 2120 4985 5437 42,29% 41,00% 32,22%
Western Europe 5013 12159 16872 100,00% 100,00% 100,00%
Divergence
• Lagging Eastern Europe
• Growing development gap between the core and periphery
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from HungaryThe Socialist heritage The Socialist heritage
Special Hungarian features:
• 1956 Revolution
• Kadarism (after János Kádár, General Secretary)
• Goulash Communism (Gulyás-kommunizmus)
• Economic Reforms (New Economic Mechanism, cooperatives for profit, limited western orientation, partly market pricing, taxation; commercial bank)
• IMF – external debt
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Transition EconomiesTransition Economies
Required steps
controlled/planned economy market economy
socialism capitalism
dictatorship democracy
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Transition EconomiesTransition Economies
Timehorizon
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Transition EconomiesTransition Economies
Former Soviet Union
Commonwealth of Independent States
Baltic
East Central Europe
South East Europe
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Baltic countries:• EE – Estonia• LV – Latvia • LT – Lithuania
East Central European countries:• PL – Poland• CZ – Czech Republic• SK – Slovakia • HU – Hungary
South East European countries:• SI (SLO) – Slovenia• HR (CRO) – Croatia• BA (BIH) – Bosnia and Herzegovina • CG – Montenegro (Crna Gora)
• SRB – Serbia• FYROM – Macedonia• RO – Romania• BG – Bulgaria• ??? Kosovo
Transition EconomiesTransition Economies
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
CIS (FSU):
• AM – Armenia• AZ – Azerbaijan• BY – Belarus• KG – Kyrgyzstan• KZ – Kazakhstan• MD – Moldova• RU – Russia• TJ – Tajikistan• UZ – Uzbekistan
• TM – Turkmenistan• UA – Ukraine
• GE - Georgia
Transition EconomiesTransition Economies
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Transition EconomiesTransition Economies
The „Shock” (J curve) Falling output (GDP)
-45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5
%
Indonesia (1997-98)
France (1929-32)
Czech Rep. (1989-92)
Germany (1929-32)
Venezuela (2001-03)
Chile (1981-83)
Hungary (1989-93)
Poland (1978-82)
Argentina (1998-2002)
Saudi Arabia (1981-85)
USA (1929-33)
Russia (1989-98)
The Economist
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Transition EconomiesTransition Economies
The „Shock” (J curve)
The main reasons of serious decrease:
• collapse of Soviet and eastern market (COMECON);
• rising price level generating inflation;
• diminishing state subsidies (5,4% of GDP in 1992, 2,3% in 2001);
• indebtedness and insolvency among comapnies;
• large external debt (by IMF); receipt to be followed: Washington Concensus >> privatisation;
• non-performing loans (29,6% of total loans in 1993; 20,2% in 1994)
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Privatisation
Types:• direct sale for foreigners;• direct sale for natives;• MBO, Management-buy-out;• EBO, Employee-buy-out;• coupon system (recoup);• restitution.
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from HungaryThe mission The mission
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
primary secondary tertiaryCzech Republic Coupon MBO/EBO RestitutionHungary Sale MBO/EBO RestitutionPoland Sale MBO/EBO CouponSlovakia MBO/EBO Sale Coupon
Type of privatisation
Privatisation
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from HungaryThe mission The mission
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Privatisation revenues (cumulative, in per cent of GDP)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
%
Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovakia
The main questions: time and rapidity??
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from HungaryThe mission The mission
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Privatisation
Different scenarios, stories:• positive: TUNGSRAM >> GE;
• negative: IKARUS >> just a few local companies;
• all in all: a great loss within manufacturing, negativ effect on labour market and budget revenues.
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from HungaryThe mission The mission
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Privatisation
Unfavourable changes on labour market:
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from HungaryThe mission The mission
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force)
02468
101214
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Labor force, total
3 800 0003 900 0004 000 0004 100 0004 200 0004 300 0004 400 0004 500 0004 600 000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
New political elite had fears from turning back (tosocialism)!
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
State sector share inGDPPrivate sector share inGDP
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from HungaryThe mission The mission
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary90es 90es –– Crisis management and stabilizationCrisis management and stabilization
-20,00
-15,00
-10,00
-5,00
0,00
5,00
10,00
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Czech RepublicHungaryPolandSlovak Republic
Vulnerable growth, structural problems!
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary
The conceptual background The conceptual background Export base theory
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary90es 90es –– Crisis management and stabilizationCrisis management and stabilization
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Czech RepublicHungaryPolandSlovak Republic
Extern growth factors:
1) export, but what about import-substitution?
Hungary 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Trade balance (millions of USD) -3 246 -3 635 -2 442 -2 645 -1 963 -2 353 -2 176 -2 119 -2 930
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary90es 90es –– Crisis management and stabilizationCrisis management and stabilization
0,00
1 000,00
2 000,00
3 000,00
4 000,00
5 000,00
6 000,00
7 000,00
8 000,00
9 000,00
10 000,00
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Czech Republic HungaryPolandSlovakia
Extern growth factors:
2) Foreign Direct Investment (million USD)!Hungary is the TOP;
~ 16 Billion USD till 1999
FDI stock
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary90es 90es –– Crisis management and stabilizationCrisis management and stabilization
Extern growth factors:
2) Foreign Direct Investment (million USD)!
Attractivity of the country:
• good location, proximity to WE;
• „qasi capitalist” preliminaries, industrial traditions;
• relative developed infrastructure (around the capital, BP);
• low wages: especially the minimum wage (from 22 000 to 98 000 HUF; ~ 330 EUR in 2013)
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary90es 90es –– Crisis management and stabilizationCrisis management and stabilization
Extern growth factors:
2) Foreign Direct Investment (million USD)!
Threats of poverty: remaining poor!
Circulus vitiosus!Gross wages (USD), 2013Czech Republic: 1 268Hungary: 899Poland: 1 203Slovakia: 1 069
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary90es 90es –– Crisis management and stabilizationCrisis management and stabilization
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Number of banks (of which foreign owned) 35 (12) 40 (15) 43 (17) 42 (21) 41 (25) 41 (30) 40 (27) 39 (27) 42 (33) 41 (32)
Asset share of state-owned banks 74,4 74,9 62,8 52 16,3 10,8 11,8 9,1 7,7 9,1
Financial structure and conditions:
-9
-8-7
-6
-5-4
-3
-2-1
0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
0102030405060708090100
General governmentbalanceGeneral governmentdebt
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary90es 90es –– Crisis management and stabilizationCrisis management and stabilization
Hard to keep the balance!Reasons of budget deficit in HUN:
• large external debt & debt service;
• extensive bureaucracy in Public Administration >> corruption;
• high level of tax rates (on income, VA <27%>) >> tax evasion;
• soft budget frames >> deficit;
• wide range social benefits (partly due to the aging society);
• much clearer and concentrated economic startegy.
Result: constant budget constraints (1995, 2006, 2008-).
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
External debt/GDP
External debt/exportsof goods and services
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary90es 90es –– Crisis management and stabilizationCrisis management and stabilization
Fighting against the external debt! (%)
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Exchange rate(FORINT/USD, annualaverage)
Consumer prices (end-year)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Continuous devaluation!
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary90es 90es –– Crisis management and stabilizationCrisis management and stabilization
• No fixed exchange rate;
• crawling peg (1995-2001);
• floating exchange rate (since 2001).
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary90es 90es –– Crisis management and stabilizationCrisis management and stabilization
Continuous devaluation!• Crawling peg (1995-2001);
• floating exchange rate (since 2001).
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Moses Genesis 41
Pharaoh dreams…seven years of plenty and seven of famine…
La Fontaine: The Ant and the Grasshopper
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
GDP per capita (PPP)EU average 100%
GDP per capita (WB, 2012)
European Union: 33 014 $Czech Republic: 26 590 $ (37./17.)Hungary: 22 119 $ (48./24.)Poland: 22 162 $ (47./23.)Slovakia: 25 305 $ (40./20.)
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary2000es 2000es –– EU integrationEU integration
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
GDP annual growth rate %
GDP surplus 2000>>2014European Union: x+19,2 %Czech Republic: x+ 38,7 %Hungary: x+ 24,6 %Poland: x+ 50,8 %Slovakia: x+ 56,4 %
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary2000es 2000es –– EU integrationEU integration
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
PopulationPop density
(person/sqkm)
1990 2011 1990 2011
Czech Rep. 10 333 355 10 546 000 133,73 136,18
Poland 38 110 782 38 216 000 125,19 125,52
Hungary 10 373 988 9 971 000 115,43 110,46
Slovakia 5 299 187 5 440 000 110,17 112,92
Name Per 1 000 persons 1991 1996 2001 2006 2010
Czech Rep.
Number of births 12,6 9,0 8,9 10,3 11,1
Number of deaths 12,0 11,0 10,5 10,2 10,2
PolandNumber of births 14,3 11,1 9,6 9,8 10,8
Number of deaths 10,6 10,0 9,5 9,7 9,9
Hungary Number of births 12,3 10,4 9,5 9,9 9,0
Number of deaths 14,0 14,1 13,0 13,1 13,0
SlovakiaNumber of births 14,8 11,2 9,5 10,0 11,1
Number of deaths 10,3 9,5 9,7 9,9 9,8
Deficit!Deficit!
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary2000es 2000es –– EU integrationEU integration
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Czech Rep. 1,89 1,28 1,14 1,28 1,49
Poland 2,04 1,61 1,35 1,24 1,38
Hungary 1,84 1,57 1,32 1,31 1,25
Slovakia 2,09 1,52 1,30 1,25 1,40
Fertility rate
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Czech Rep. 71,38 73,07 74,97 75,92 77,42
Poland 70,89 71,89 73,75 75,00 76,25
Hungary 69,32 69,79 71,25 72,65 74,21
Slovakia 70,93 72,25 73,05 73,90 75,11
Life expectancy (year)
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary2000e2000es s –– EU EU integrationintegration
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Share of economically active age classes within the total population (15-64 year)
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary2000e2000es s –– EU EU integrationintegration
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Share of population 65 year old and over within the total population (%)
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary2000e2000es s –– EU EU integrationintegration
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
2000 2012Czech Republic 4 624,9 4 810,4Hungary 3 805,7 3 842,8Poland 14 154,7 15 340,3Slovakia 2 096,0 2 317,2
Number of employed (persons)
Rate of eployment (%)Number of pensioner (person), 2007Czech Republic: 2 719Hungary: 3 045Poland: 9 188Slovakia: 1 246
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary2000e2000es s –– EU EU integrationintegration
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Threats:• young (24-)
• old (50+)
• female 2012, %European Union 58,5Czech Republic 58,2Hungary 52,1Poland 53,1Slovakia 52,7
2012, %European Union 48,8Czech Republic 49,3Hungary 36,9Poland 38,7Slovakia 43,1
2012European Union 32,8Czech Republic 25,2Hungary 18,6Poland 24,7Slovakia 20,1
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary2000e2000es s –– EU EU integrationintegration
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
%
Unemployment rate (%)EDP!!
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary2000e2000es s –– EU EU integrationintegration
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Number of emigrants within the EEA
Number of persons
2000 32 370Czech Republic 2011 85 941
2001 451 834Poland
2011 1 567 650
1999 74 016Hungary
2011 129 467
2003 68 899Slovakia
2011 156 752
Remittance (GDP %)
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary2000e2000es s –– EU EU integrationintegration
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
General government balance (GDP %)EDP!!
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary2000e2000es s –– EU EU integrationintegration
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Social expenditure (GDP %)
Euro per capita, 2010Czech Republic: 2 877,88Hungary: 2 228,79Poland: 1 759,84Slovakia: 2 253,78
•Social protection benefits•Administration costs•Other expenditure•Sickness/Health care•Disability•Old age•Survivors•Family/Children•Unemployment•Housing•Social exclusion n.e.c.•Sickness / healthcare and disability•Old age and survivors•Housing and Social exclusion n.e.c.
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary2000e2000es s –– EU EU integrationintegration
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
External government debt (GDP %)
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary2000e2000es s –– EU EU integrationintegration
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Debt service, interest (GDP %)
2000 2006 2012Czech Republic 0,8 1,1 1,5Hungary 5,4 3,9 4,3Poland 3,0 2,7 2,8Slovakia 4,1 1,5 1,9
Millió euro, 2010
Czech Republic: 2 227,9Hungary: 4 172,7Poland: 10 830,9Slovakia: 1 322,1
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary2000e2000es s –– EU EU integrationintegration
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Investment, 2001, 2006 and 2011
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary2000e2000es s –– EU EU integrationintegration
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Gross fixed capital formation, 2011
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary2000e2000es s –– EU EU integrationintegration
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Gross national savings, 2001 and 2011
Lessons learnt from HungaryLessons learnt from Hungary2000e2000es s –– EU EU integrationintegration
Economic Policy of Economic Policy of VisegradVisegrad CountriesCountrieson the Way of European Integrationon the Way of European Integration
The Hungarian caseThe Hungarian case
Tbilisi Tbilisi -- G
eorgia 2G
eorgia 2 -- 4 Dec 2013
4 Dec 2013
Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!
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