techno economic and market analysis of from syngas to ... · feedstock processing capacity 2,000...
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Techno‐economic and Market Analysis of Pathways from Syngas to Fuels and Chemicals
Michael Talmadge, Abhijit Dutta & Richard Bain
IEA Bioenergy, Task 33 / IEA IETS Workshop on System and Integration Aspects of Biomass‐based Gasification – Gothenburg, Sweden
November 20, 2013
2
Objective
Assess the economics of producing fuels and chemicals from
biomass‐derived synthesis gas.
• Process economics based on literature (consistent TEA assumptions)
• Perform more rigorous TEA on promising pathways
o Biochemical conversion of syngas to ethanol and higher alcohols
o Ethanol and higher alcohols to infrastructure‐compatible hydrocarbons
• Simple product market analyses
What can we do with syngas?
3
• Simplified TEA model• Inputs from literature sources
o Feedstock rate and properties (heating value)o Product yieldso Operating costs (variable & fixed)o Capital costs
• Common scaling assumptions o Capital scaling exponentso Economies of scale for fixed operating costs
• Operating and financing assumptions for nth plant and pioneer plant
• Minimum Product Selling Priceliterature values average, standard deviation & 90% confidence intervals
Analysis Approach
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nth Plant AssumptionsParameter Value
Basis year for analysis 2011
Feedstock processing capacity 2,000 Dry Tonnes / SD
Feedstock cost (woody biomass) $75 / Dry Ton (€21.60 / MWh)
Debt / equity for plant financing 60% / 40%
Internal rate of return (after‐tax) for equity financing 10%
Annual interest rate and term for debt financing 8% / 10 years
Total income tax rate 35%
Plant life 30 years
Plant depreciation schedule 7‐year IRS MACRSMACRS = Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System
Reliability of operations / on‐stream factor 0.90Site development costs 4% of ISBL Installed CapitalWorking capital 5% of Fixed Capital InvestmentIndirect costs for capital project 60% of Total Direct CostsCapital equipment capacity scaling exponent 0.70
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Parameter Value
Basis year for analysis 2011
Feedstock processing capacity 2,000 Dry Tonnes / Day
Feedstock cost (woody biomass) $75 / Dry Ton (€21.60 / MWh)
Debt / equity for plant financing 60% / 40%
Internal rate of return (after‐tax) for equity financing 10%
Annual interest rate and term for debt financing 8% / 10 years
Total income tax rate 35%
Plant life 30 years
Plant depreciation schedule 7‐year IRS MACRSMACRS = Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System
Reliability of operations / on‐stream factor 0.90Site development costs 4% of ISBL Installed CapitalWorking capital 5% of Fixed Capital InvestmentIndirect costs for capital project 60% of Total Direct CostsCapital equipment capacity scaling exponent 0.70
nth Plant Assumptions
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0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
• Internal Rate of Return (IRR): 10% – 25%• Capital Costs: Pioneer Plant Escalation 210% of nth Plant Estimates (Merrow et al, Rand, 1981)
• Reliability of Operations / On‐Stream Factor:Initial value of 0.5 (Merrow et al, Rand, 1981)
Increasing to 0.9 per experience curve (Heinen, SRI Consulting, 2001)
Pioneer Plant Assumptions
On‐Stream
Factor
Year of Plant Operation
~
7
Fuel Pathways Explored
Ethanol & C3+ Alcohols
Hydrocarbons (FT Gasoline, Diesel, Jet, Lubricants)
Synthetic Natural Gas
Dimethyl Ether (DME)
Syngas
Gasoline(MTG)
Triptyls Olefins(MTO)
Ethanol
Methanol
Syngas Fermentation Butanol
2,3‐Butanediol
8
Chemical Pathways Explored
Hydrocarbons (FT Lubes, Waxes)
Acetic Anhydride
Propylene(MTO)
FormaldehydeEthylene(MTO)
Hydrogen
Ethyl Acetate
Formic Acid
Methyl Formate
Ethylene Glycol
Acetic Acid
Acetic Acid
Syngas Fermentation
PHA(Polyhydroxyalkanoates)
Syngas
Methyl‐Amines
Methanol
Urea
Ammonia
DME Aldehydes (Oxosynthesis)
9
Major Pathway Categories Explored• Synthetic Natural Gas via Methanation of Syngas
• Ethanolo Catalytic Mixed Alcohol Synthesis
o Syngas Fermentation *
• Hydrocarbonso Fischer‐Tropsch
o Methanol to Naphtha Hydrocarbons
o Ethanol & Higher Alcohols to Hydrocarbons *
• Hydrogen via Steam Reforming, WGS & Purification
• Methanol via Catalytic Methanol Synthesis
* Pathways explored by NREL through Aspen modeling and rigorous TEA.
10
Synthetic Natural Gas• Methanation of Syngas
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Europe Pricing History (EIA)US Pricing History (EIA)
Synthetic Natural Gas20
11 $ / M
Scf
Historical Pricing Data Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Process Sources Min. Selling Price Range ($ / MScf)Syngas to SNG via methanation
McKeough & Kurkela, 2007Mozaffarian et al, 2004van der Drift et al, 2005
nth Plant 16.52 – 19.13Pioneer 10% IRR 27.07 – 29.52Pioneer 25% IRR 47.50 – 53.97
Pioneer 10% IRR $28 / MScf
nth Plant $18 /MScf €83 / MWh
€133 / MWh
12
• Techno‐economic Analysis
• Market Analysis
05
10152025303540
Market Price (5‐Yr) nth‐Plant MSP Pioneer Plant MSP
Synthetic Natural Gas
2011
$ / M
Scf
17.62 ± 2.23
5.50
U.S. EuropeAverage Product Yield Scf / Ton 11,440 11,440Consumption (EIA, 2012) Scf / Year 25.5T 19.0T10% of Natural Gas Market Scf / Year 2.55T 1.90TEquivalent Biomass Consumption MMTon / Year 223 165
Equivalent Biorefineries (2,000 Tonne / Day) 310 230
28.29 ± 2.05
50.80 ± 5.30
IRR = 10% 25%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
14.80
13
Ethanol• Catalytic Mixed Alcohol Synthesis
• Syngas Fermentation *
* Pathways explored by NREL through Aspen modeling and rigorous TEA.
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Europe Pricing History (EIA)US Pricing History (EIA)
Ethanol via Mixed Alcohol Synthesis
Historical Pricing Data Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Process Sources Min. Selling Price Range ($ / Gal GE)Syngas to ethanol via catalytic mixed alcohol synthesis
Dutta et al, 2011Dutta & Phillips, 2009Dutta et al, 2010He & Zhang, 2011Villanueva Perales et al, 2011
nth Plant 2.87 – 4.83Pioneer 10% IRR 5.34 – 9.08Pioneer 25% IRR 10.66 – 18.15
2011
$ / Gallon GE
Pioneer 10% IRR $7.60 / GGE
nth Plant $4.20 / GGE €165 / MWh
€302 / MWh
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Europe Pricing History (EIA)US Pricing History (EIA)
Ethanol via Syngas Fermentation
Historical Pricing Data Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Process Sources Min. Selling Price Range ($ / Gal GE)Ethanol via syngasfermentation
Putsche,1999 van Kasteren & Verbene, 2005 Piccolo & Bezzo, 2007
nth Plant 3.67 – 5.08Pioneer 10% IRR 5.77 – 8.50Pioneer 25% IRR 8.92 – 16.12
2011
$ / Gallon GE
Pioneer 10% IRR $6.80 / GGE
nth Plant $4.30 / GGE €172 / MWh
€269 / MWh
16
Ethanol via Syngas Fermentation
NREL TEA Model
• Design Report NREL/TP‐5100‐51400 utilized as basis through clean compressed syngas from biomass.
• Yield structures based on publications from LanzaTech & INEOS Bio.• Capital costs for fermenters, seed train and cell recovery developed by
Harris Group Inc.
Ethanol
C3+ Alcohols
Acetic Acid
Power
Syngas Cleanup
BiomassGasification
Feed Handling & Preparation
Flue Gas
Woody Biomass
Syngas Fermentation
Seed Train
Product Recovery
Heat Integration, Power Generation & Other Utilities
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nth‐Plant MSP Pioneer Plant MSPnth‐Plant MSP Pioneer Plant MSP0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Market Price (4‐Yr) Price Projection (4‐Yr) nth‐Plant MSP Pioneer Plant MSP
• Techno‐economic Analysis
• Market Analysis
Ethanol20
11 $ / Gallon GE
Mixed Alcohols(Literature)
Syngas Fermentation (Literature)
Syngas Fermentation(NREL TEA)
2.72
6.77 ± 1.69
3.06IRR = 10% 25% IRR = 10% 25%IRR = 10% 25%
4.16 ± 1.06
4.32 ± 0.83
14.91 ± 3.88
7.59 ± 1.96
11.95 ± 3.70
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
U.S. EuropeAverage Product Yield Gallons / Ton 85 85Consumption (EIA, 2013) Gallons / Year 13.0B 10.0T50% of Fuel Ethanol Market Gallons / Year 6.5B 5.0TEquivalent Biomass Consumption MMTon / Year 76 60
Equivalent Biorefineries (2,000 Tonne / Day) 100 80
18
Hydrocarbons• Fischer‐Tropsch
• Methanol to Naphtha Hydrocarbons
• Ethanol & Higher Alcohols to Hydrocarbons *
* Pathways explored by NREL through Aspen modeling and rigorous TEA.
19
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Europe Pricing History (EIA)US Pricing History (EIA)
Fischer‐Tropsch Hydrocarbons
Historical Pricing Data Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Process Sources Min. Selling Price Range ($ / Gal GE)Hydrocarbons via Fischer‐Tropsch synthesis
Hamelinck et al, 2003Larson et al, 2009McKeough & Kurkela, 2007SRI PEP Yearbook, 2009Udengaard, 2011Byrne, 2011Freeman, 2011
nth Plant 2.52 – 4.19
Pioneer 10% IRR 4.50 – 7.00
Pioneer 25% IRR 9.04 – 12.80
2011
$ / Gallon GE
Pioneer 10% IRR $5.30 / GGE
nth Plant $3.10 / GGE €122 / MWh
€211 / MWh
20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Europe Historical Pricing (EIA)
US Pricing History (EIA)
Methanol to Hydrocarbons
Historical Pricing Data Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Process Sources Min. Selling Price Range ($ / Gal GE)Hydrocarbons via methanol synthesisand methanol conversion
Phillips et al, 2011Hindman, 2010SRI PEP Report 191A, 1999Udengaard, 2011Jones & Zhu, 2009 Ahn et al, 2009
nth Plant 2.61 – 3.84
Pioneer 10% IRR 4.42 – 6.12
Pioneer 25% IRR 8.22 – 10.79
2011
$ / Gallon GE
Pioneer 10% IRR $5.20 / GGE
nth Plant $3.20 / GGE €128 / MWh
€205 / MWh
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Ethanol & Higher Alcohols to HydrocarbonsNREL TEA Model
• Ethanol (and higher alcohol) intermediates for hydrocarbon fuel production.• Eliminates constraints of renewable ethanol blend limits.• Technology development taking place in academia, national labs and industry.
Co‐Product(s)Syngas Cleanup
BiomassGasification
Feed Handling & Preparation
Flue Gas
Woody Biomass
Alcohol Synthesis
Heat Integration, Power Generation & Other Utilities
Alcohol to Hydrocarbon Conversion
Hydrogen Plant Naphtha
Mid‐Distillates
Mixed C4Mixed C3Light Ends
Hydrocarbon Product Recovery
Natural Gas
Ethanol (and C3+ Alcohol)Intermediates
Alcohol Separation
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nth‐Plant MSP Pioneer Plant MSPnth‐Plant MSP Pioneer Plant MSP0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Market Price (4‐Yr) Price Projection (4‐Yr) nth‐Plant MSP Pioneer Plant MSP
• Techno‐economic Analysis
• Market Analysis
Hydrocarbon Fuels20
11 $ / Gallon GE
2.72
5.16 ± 1.02
3.06 3.09 ± 0.96
3.24 ± 0.81
10.10 ± 2.43
5.33 ± 1.45
9.18 ± 1.65
Fischer‐Tropsch(Literature)
MeOH to Hydrocarbons(Literature)
EtOH to Hydrocarbons(NREL TEA)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
U.S. EuropeAverage Product Yield Gallons / Ton 65 65Consumption (EIA, 2013) Gallons / Year 220B 160B10% of Hydrocarbon Fuels Market Gallons / Year 22B 16BEquivalent Biomass Consumption MMTon / Year 338 242
Equivalent Biorefineries (2,000 Tonne / Day) 440 310
23
Hydrogen• Steam reforming, water‐gas shift & purification
24
02468
1012141618
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Europe Pricing History (IHS)
US Pricing History (IHS)
Hydrogen
Historical Pricing Data Source: SRI / IHS CEH Marketing Research Reports. Projected values based on ratios to EIA natural gas projections.
Process Sources Min. Selling Price Range ($ / MScf)Syngas to H2 via steam reforming,water‐gas shift & purification
Spath et al, 2005McKeough & Kurkela, 2003Williams et al, 1995Hamelinck & Faaij, 2001
nth Plant 5.33 – 8.84
Pioneer 10% IRR 9.87 – 14.82
Pioneer 25% IRR 19.80 – 27.60
2011
$ / M
Scf
Pioneer 10% IRR $11.80 / MScf
nth Plant $6.70 / MScf €106 / MWh
€188 / MWh
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• Techno‐economic Analysis
• Market Analysis
02468
1012141618
Market Price (5‐Yr) nth‐Plant MSP Pioneer Plant MSP
Hydrogen
2011
$ / M
Scf
6.67 ± 2.486.50 (EU) 5.95 (US)
11.84 ± 3.50
22.95 ± 5.50
IRR = 10% 25%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
U.S. EuropeAverage Product Yield SCF / Ton 37,500 37,500Consumption (EIA, 2013) SCF / Year 4.1T 3.2T10% of HydrogenMarket SCF / Year 0.41T 0.32TEquivalent Biomass Consumption MMTon / Year 11 8.5
Equivalent Biorefineries (2,000 Tonne / Day) 14 11
26
Methanol• Catalytic Methanol Synthesis
27
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Europe Pricing History (IHS)US Pricing History (IHS)
Methanol
Historical Pricing Data Source: IHS CEH Marketing Research Report, 2013.
US ContractUS Spot
Process Sources Min. Selling Price Range ($ / Gal)Syngas to methanol via catalytic synthesis
Tarud & Phillips, 2011 McKeough & Kurkela, 2007 SRI PEP Yearbook, 2009Williams et al, 1995Hamelinck & Faaij, 2001
nth Plant 0.96 – 1.32
Pioneer 10% IRR 1.54 – 2.03
Pioneer 25% IRR 2.82 – 3.71
2011
$ / Gallon Pioneer 10% IRR $1.83 / Gal
$3.72 / GGE
nth Plant $1.15 / Gal$2.33 / GGE
€93 / MWh
€147 / MWh
28
• Techno‐economic Analysis
• Market Analysis
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Market Price (5‐Yr) nth‐Plant MSP Pioneer Plant MSP
Methanol as Chemical Intermediate
2011
$ / M
Scf
1.15 ± 0.261.15
1.83 ± 0.37
3.24 ± 0.60
IRR = 10% 25%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
U.S. EuropeAverage Product Yield Gallons / Ton 170 170Consumption (IHS) Gallons / Year 1.9B 2.2B10% of Methanol Market Gallons / Year 0.19B 0.22BEquivalent Biomass Consumption MMTon / Year 1.1 1.3
Equivalent Biorefineries (2,000 Tonne / Day) 1.4 1.6
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• Techno‐economic Analysis
• Market Analysis
Methanol as Fuel Intermediate
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Market Price (5‐Yr) nth‐Plant MSP Pioneer Plant MSP
2011
$ / M
Scf
1.15 ± 0.261.15
1.83 ± 0.37
3.24 ± 0.60
IRR = 10% 25%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
U.S. EuropeAverage Product Yield Gallons / Ton 65 65Consumption (EIA, 2013) Gallons / Year 220B 160B10% of Hydrocarbon Fuels Market Gallons / Year 22B 16BEquivalent Biomass Consumption MMTon / Year 338 242
Equivalent Biorefineries (2,000 Tonne / Day) 440 310
30
Conclusions• Hydrocarbon, ethanol and methanol economics can be competitive for nth‐plant.
• Pioneer plant economics are challenged overall.
• Market capacities do not constrain bio‐product pathways in major hydrocarbon fuel markets (natural gas, petroleum fuels).
• With fixed ethanol blend limit, cellulosic pathways and grain‐derived product will compete for limited market.
• Market capacities for methanol‐derived chemicals are constraining.
• Syngas fermentation is potentially competitive, depending on CO / H2 conversion to product(s).
• Methanol and ethanol are attractive intermediates for production of infrastructure‐compatible hydrocarbons.
31
Future Work
• Apply simplified TEA and market analysis on emerging pathways to identify economic feasibility in early stages of development.
• Explore opportunities to improve Pioneer Plant economicso Biomass co‐feeding opportunities (NG‐Biomass to Liquids)
o Utilizing inexpensive feedstocks
o High‐value co‐products
o RIN credits
• Evaluate infrastructure hurdle for methanol economy
32
Acknowledgements
• Abhijit Dutta and Richard Bain (co‐authors)
• Matt Worley and Ben Fierman of Harris Group Inc, Atlanta, Georgia.
• Bioenergy Technology Office (BETO) of the United States Department of Energy
• NREL Biorefinery Analysis and Thermochemical Platform Teams
33
References
For a complete list of references utilized in this analysis, please contact Mike Talmadge ([email protected] / 303‐275‐4632)