term paper - case of wireless technologies

Joshua Levy: Term Paper: Higher School of Economics, Moscow 1

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies

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Joshua Levy M.Sc. in Science Technology and Innovation

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Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics

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Contents Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 3Goals and Objectives ...................................................................................................................... 3Technological definition & Components ........................................................................................ 3Literature Review............................................................................................................................ 4Methodology ................................................................................................................................. 13

Critical Technologies ................................................................................................................ 14Cellular Communication ....................................................................................................... 14

Wireless Sensor Networks ........................................................................................................ 16STEEPV .................................................................................................................................... 19

Social..................................................................................................................................... 19Technological ........................................................................................................................ 20Environment .......................................................................................................................... 22Economic .............................................................................................................................. 23Political ................................................................................................................................. 25Values ................................................................................................................................... 27

SWOT ....................................................................................................................................... 28Strengths ............................................................................................................................... 28Opportunities......................................................................................................................... 29Weakness .............................................................................................................................. 30Threats................................................................................................................................... 31

Scenario......................................................................................................................................... 33Bibliography ................................................................................................................................. 34Table of Figures ............................................................................................................................ 50Declaration of Oath ....................................................................................................................... 51


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Introduction Since the late 20th century ever since the first commercial computer was developed and sold, and with the discovery of radio transmission, our society has gradually progressed towards and always-on-always-connected society. The invention of mobile phone revolutionized the way we communicate with each other. In a rapidly developing and dynamic market, there has been a paradigm shift towards an inter-connected technology, which has defined the society at present. A few years ago, we could have imagined downloading a full HD movie in a few minutes using ordinary broadband, however, come 2015, and we can download a whole HD movie using 4G mobile. Therefore, as this technology is highly fluid, dynamic and evolving at an exponential pace, this paper will analyse the impact of wireless technology on the economy, together with changes in lifestyle brought about it. By using foresight and its connected methodologies, a visionary future would emerge which will attempt to determine its impact on various sectors. Goals and Objectives The primary goal of this research paper is to analyse the past and present technological developments within the sphere of wireless technologies and the primary objective is to develop a foresight of its adaptation and implementation within the 10 years using STI tools, drivers and market research in conjunction with consumer and technological trends. Technological definition & Components Although wireless technology has multiple definitions to it, (Hiser et.al) 20011 defines wireless as context of using radio frequencies to transmit data over the medium of air instead of the traditional wireline copper and fibre transports consequently, the technology can be defined as a collection of wireless standard in data transmission over the air. The most popular and consumer oriented wireless technologies are WiFi, Bluetooth and mobile internet (3G, 4G) etc.. Although the technology is quite varied and can be implemented across many levels, there are key components without which the technology would not work: 1. Transmitter This is hardware device that transfers electromagnetic or radio waves using the scatter system i.e. the transmission of radio waves is not uniform and is spread across the area covered, based on lognormal distribution2 2. Receiver This unit receives the incoming electromagnetic wave from the transmission, which is then passed on to a baseband processor. The main primary objective of the baseband is to tune the receiver unit at the desired frequency of operation and deciphering information before being passed on to the microcontroller. 1 Wheat, J, R Hiser, J Tucker, A Neely, and A McCullough. Designing a Wireless Network. Syngress Publishing, Inc., 2001. Accessed 1st March 2015 2 What Is a Transmitter IC? Future Electronics, 2012. http://www.futureelectronics.com/en/wireless-rf-radio-frequency/transmitter-ics.aspx. Access March 2, 2015


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3. GSM /GPRS GSM3 stands for Global System for Mobile Communication and GPRS stands for General Packet Radio Service. This is the international standard for voice communication using wireless technology. Commonly referred to as GSM or 2G (Second Generation), this technology primarily operates on 800-900 MHz.. GPRS is the data communication technology that is primarily used for accessing the internet sending text messages and Multimedia messages (MMS) 4. 3G /HSDPA Third generation (3G) and High Speed Download Packet Access is a relatively, modern evolution of wireless technology which is aimed at fast internet access coupled with VOIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) for online telephony. 5. Bluetooth Bluetooth is a technological standard that forms a key part of the wireless technology; broadly, it is a point-to-point connection protocol, which is used for data transmission between two devices. 6. WiFi WiFi is a collection of wireless technology standards, which is used for data transmission. Literature Review As this research, paper is focused on both the social and technological aspects of wireless technology, the literature review tri-fold. The first aspect outlines a technological review outlining various evolutions within the wireless technology, with a special focus on telecommunication. The second aspect concerns the social impact created as result of wireless technology within our society. The third aspect is the technology forecasting within the 10 years. Emergence of Wireless Technology&CommunicationIn order to understand the origins of wireless technology, it is important to understand the meaning of electromagnetic wave. (Sakar T, et.al 2006)4 Describe it as a wave, which can travel though vacuum and space without requiring a medium of transmission. Colloquially it can be compared to sound waves. In sound wave, it requires a medium i.e. air for propagation, in stark contrast to electromagnetic wave. Therefore, a wireless radio wave is an electromagnetic wave carrying data. Ever since the emergence and discovery of electromagnetic waves, there has been an ever-present desire of us humans to achieve faster and efficient communication using the same. The authors (Sakar T, et.al 2006)5 give an accurate chronological overview of the evolution of wireless technology starting from 1858, when Bernhard Riemann toyed with the 3 GSM. About Us. Accessed March 2, 2015. http://www.gsma.com/aboutus/gsm-technology/gsm. 4 Sarkar, T. K., Robert Mailloux, Arthur A. Oliner, M. Salazar-Palma, and Dipak L. Sengupta. History of Wireless. John Wiley & Sons, 2006. 5 Sarkar, T. K., Robert Mailloux, Arthur A. Oliner, M. Salazar-Palma, and Dipak L. Sengupta. History of Wireless. John Wiley & Sons, 2006.


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Figure 1: Wireless Transmission

assumption of a force travelling at the speed of light containing a charge between two finite points. However, it was later withdrawn as the electromagnetic theory on which his assumption was based was marked as invalid. This later picked up by Ludwig Lorenz in 1867 in which he explained the scalar and vector potentials of the charge mathematically. However, the overarching effect of Maxwells theory, in 1867 that effectively states that light is an extension of electromagnetic wave. The works of Maxwell laid the foundation of the discovery of electromagnetic waves by Heinrich Hertz in 1888 through scientific experiments. Whilst Hertz was developing the theory and practicalities of Electromagnetic waves, Thomas Edison filed for patent US0465971A6 in which he described a method transmitting signals electronically with two antennas set apart from each other by a finite distance. This was essentially the effective and practical transmission, which was eventually superseded by Guglielmo Marconi who Fig. 1. US0465971A filed for patent GB190007777A7 in which he improved the method of wireless transmission using two specified points, which was primarily aimed at ships but later incorporated for consumer wireless communication. Since then, have been rapid advances in

wireless communication; come dawn of the 70s it reached its pinnacle when Motorola, together with Martin Cooper US39061668, invented the first mobile phone, this was effectively called the 1G (first generation) of wireless communication. GSM (Global System for Mobile Communication) and CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access) coming during the late 80s and early 90ss. Having a consumer point of view, with the cellular communications being commercialized, (Theodre S, et.al 2002)9 reported that during late 2001, there were a little over 100 million phone subscribers, using the first generation system and rising to 330

million using the GSM standard. This was due to ease of communication between two devices using SIM (Subscribers Identity Module). However, in contrast CDMA did not achieve consumer popularity initially, gaining a little over 100 million subscribers. In addition, the Web World Web colloquially called the Internet in the late 90s effectively pushed the technology towards an ever more increase in data bandwidth thereby forcing the telecoms world to incorporate a new technological standard known as WiFi, which was introduced in 1991 by NCR, in association with AT&T. With the advancement of time, wireless communication has taken new methods of data transmission akin to cellular communication, such as WiMax. The

6 Edison, Thomas A. Means for Transmitting Signals Electrically, December 29, 1891. http://www.google.com/patents/US465971. 7 Guglielmo, Marconi. Improvements in Apparatus for Wireless Telegraphy., April 13, 1901. http://worldwide.espacenet.com/publicationDetails/biblio?FT=D&date=19010413&DB=worldwide.espacenet.com&locale=en_EP&CC=GB&NR=190007777A&KC=A&ND=4. 8 Cooper, Martin, Richard W. Dronsuth, Albert J. Mikulski, Jr Lynk, James J. Mikulski, John F. Mitchell, Roy a Richardson, and John H. Sangster. Radio Telephone System, September 16, 1975. http://worldwide.espacenet.com/publicationDetails/biblio?FT=D&date=19750916&DB=&locale=&CC=US&NR=3906166A&KC=A&ND=1. 9 THEODOR, S, RAPPAPOR, A ANNAMALAI, R.M. BUEHRER, and W.H. TRANTER. WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS: Past Events And A Future Perspective. Virginia Tech, 2002. http://www.ee.oulu.fi/~kk/dtsp/tutoriaalit/Rappaport.pdf.


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authors (Gunasekaran V et.al. 2011)10 describe this as the broadband revolution due to the industrial revolution there has been an ever-increasing demand for media consumption and sharing amongst the society. The traditional methods of wired communication are unable to cope and cater for the bandwidth needed in todays society, additionally, (Middleton C etl.al 2006)11 they highlight the need for wireless technology as an increasing number of consumers are relying on ICT during their everyday routine for communication with their colleagues, families, social interaction amongst others. Additionally, the importance of wireless technology as it provides an effortless provision of internet in conjunction with 802.11 technology WiFi standards; in combination with WiMax, it has led to creation of new vistas such as e-health and e-education within the rural population in India. According to (Gunasekaran V et.al. 2011)12 e-health is the involvement of ICT and wireless technology in joining remote clinics with regional hospitals for healthcare related information and internet access, similarly, e-education is the enablement of linking rural schools and colleges to regional and national institutions, thereby bringing a cohesion of learning towards the impoverished areas. According to (Warf, 2009)13 Telecommunications is a key component within the wireless technology sector, and its growth has been felt across various economic sectors, with particular emphasis on the financial sector. Since the early 2000, this component of wireless technology has become the primary source for transmitting financial information across the globe; be it stocks, money transfer, interbank documents amongst others, as a result an estimated $1.5 trillion moves around the globe today using this method of technology. Additionally, offshore baking is becoming more popular for the wealthy and making efficient use of tax. This directly reinforces with the earlier observation by (Gunasekaran V et.al. 2011) that citizens are increasing relying on telecommunications to manage their everyday affairs. The growth of telecommunications in holistic perspective has given rise of urbanisation of cities, whereby wireless technology is responsible for traffic management, parking sensors, transportation information handling, tollbooth systems for road tax amongst others, through this technology the city space has become a densely inter-connected web of information with a single source of management. Additionally, through telecommunication, the author observes the growing trend of teleworking i.e. working remotely though wireless technology, without actually visiting the working location. As the number of workers use teleworking, this has had unintended consequence on public transport. This is because remote location workers are frequently travelling to various locations using public transport, and the lack thereof forces the users to spill on roads, thereby causing congestion. The amalgamation of this situation has result has created a socioeconomic in todays society. As we advance towards the 21st century, wireless technology is slowly becoming an intrinsic part of todays society, which has sub-defined a new meaning to wireless communication, called Internet of Things or I.o.T. Authors (Gubbi, et.al 2012)14 which according to the authors is a 10 Gunasekaran, V, and F.C. Harmantzis. Emerging Wireless Technologies for Developing Countries. School of Technology Management, Stevens Institute of Technology, 2007, 20. 11 Middleton, C, A Clement, G Longford, A.B Potter, and B Crow. ICT Infrastructure as Public Infrastructure: Exploring the Benefits of Public Wireless Networks, 2006. http://www.cwirp.org/files/TPRC_Wireless_desiderata.pdf. 12 Gunasekaran, V, and F.C. Harmantzis. Emerging Wireless Technologies for Developing Countries. School of Technology Management, Stevens Institute of Technology, 2007, 20. 13 Warf, B. Telecommunications. Florida State University, 2009. 14 Jayavardhana, G, B Rajkumar, S Marusic, and M Palaniswami. Internet of Things (IoT): A Vision, Architectural Elements, and Future Directions. 2013 Elsevier B.V., February 24, 2014.


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collection of sensors and actuators which use the wireless internet technology for inter device communication and was established by Kevin Ashton in 1999. The IoT platform consists of 3 stages, which according to the article is comprised of a middleware which is concerned with internet connectivity, sensors and actuators which are result and object oriented, the third being the knowledge framework, comprising of tact knowledge, computational and algorithmic knowledge, needed for processing. Furthermore, given the rise of IoT , it has created several new technological standards and upcoming trend such as RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) MEMS (Micro Electro Mechanical Systems), which essentially a short distance communication platform for miniscule devices to communicate with each other. The author explains that using RFID technology; the microchips use wireless technology for communication, thereby acting as a electronic barcode, and are additionally comprised of active or passive RFID systems. A passive RFID uses the energy from electromagnetic wave for communication, whereas in active mode, the system is battery powered. Increasingly, cloud computing has been identified as an upcoming trend, which has given rise to remote access and office mobility. In a recent article published by BSR15 in May 2012, it outlines the various segments that have been impacted and a direct correlation of economic advantage as a result. Moving forwards, BSR claims that 6 billion cellular connections are made between people and in conjunction with the earlier correlation made by (Gunasekaran V et.al. 2011), it has laid foundations for eHealth scenarios. Within this scenario, using the Internet of Things, healthcare professionals are able to monitor patient activities and additionally build forecasting scenarios, thereby, improving the overall health outlook of the patient. This observation is further reinforced by statistical figures, within which 39% of people having type-2 diabetes have seen a marked improvement in their health, revenue generation within in-home health applications using wireless technology, reached $4.4 billion by 2013, within the financial services market for mobile payment services is expected to reach $670 billion by 2015. However great technology requires great hardware which as described previously called the Internet of Things. A synergy of key s emiconductor components are required for each wireless device to work appropriately as it is designed. Recently, McKinsey & Co. in autumn of 201416 published a report on semiconductors, using quantitative examination of SoC (System on Chip). System on Chip is a special form of microcontroller, which has audio, video and memory processing units, and can be used in variety of electronic applications, where compact footprint is of paramount importance and as such an integral component of the Internet of Things. According to the report, there has been a steady demand for SoCs related products, since 2012, which witnessed an annual growth of 170m devices to 1bn+ devices in 2014. Additionally, during the initial phase of microcontroller manufacturing in 2012, 400 MHz and 16-bit processors, in the present day, significant advancement in R&D has contributed towards the manufacturing of multicore processors and higher clock-speed microcontrollers, which are being infused in present day wireless communication devices such as smartphones and IoT devices.

15 Socioeconomic Impacts of Wireless Technology | Reports, May 2012. http://www.bsr.org/en/our-insights/report-view/socioeconomic-impacts-of-wireless-technology. 16 Bauer, H, M Patel, and J Viera. McKinsey on Semiconductors, August 2014. http://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_service/semiconductors/issue%204%20autumn%202014/pdfs/mosc2014_full_issue.ashx.


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However not all wireless technologies are concerned with WiFi, the report is keen to highlight the rise of low-level intercommunication standards having limited bandwidth such as Bluetooth and Zigbee due to the lower power requirement for communication and additionally, less overheads for transport protocol, whilst keeping the restrictive nature of IoT devices in view. The semiconductor industry is actively engaging in development and promotion of low power transmission methods, which will enable the manufacturing of sensors across the industry sectors, with a special emphasis on moisture control within the agricultural industry. The report discusses additional aspects such as security, privacy and authentication, which need to be considered whilst designing wireless communicative devices and goes on to shed light on the software development methodologies, which are needed to develop such devices. In late 90s a software engineer was not of primary importance as one of them was hired for every 10 hardware engineers , giving an effective ratio of 1:10, however come today, the gap has narrowed significantly, giving a ratio of 1:1 or 1.5. This shows the growing need of software development, based on the consumer demand as the trend grows for procuring an ever-increasing sophisticated device, that require complex array of hardware and software systems. This reinforcement comes from the three major semiconductor companies, MediaTek, Intel and Qualcomm. MediaTek has since adapted an end-to-end approach for its OEM customers. The firm manufactures both hardware and software system in-house which decreases the time-to-market for OEM manufacturers for bringing consumer devices to the market. One of the key sectors to benefit from the microelectronics embedded with wireless technology, or IoT are wearables. Wearables can be described electronic objects, which transmit medical statistical data about the human body through wireless communication. The authors (Appleboom et.al. 2013)17 discuss the potential impact of the same within eHealth or mHealth, this directly coincides with the earlier study conducted by (Gunasekaran V et.al. 2011). According to the recent study, it has shown that demand for wireless technology enabled devices has already reached 14 Million and rise exponentially to 171 million in 2016. The study suggests these devices are being increasingly used within the hospital setting on patients whereby they do not require hospitalisation however; constant monitoring is required for gathering medical data for medical analysis. In such circumstances, wearable devices are worn by the patient and are discharged. In routine intervals, using telecommunication technology, the devices transmit medical data to the hospital which then analysed by a physician. A few examples where such use could be identified could be within ECG (Electro-Cardio Gramm), BP (Blood Pressure), weight measurement and glucose levels. Upon further reflection, the wearble devices are slowly transforming into wellness devices and the recent and upcoming trend has been witness by the society. The article continues to suggest that the wellness devices as they are called, are primary intended to motivate an activate lifestyle as it impact a person both in physical and psychological manner. The study discusses that maintaining an active lifestyle improves the health outlook of the individual and is vital in recovery of certain treatment and medical conditions. However, this brings up the issue of privacy, data security and integrity, which is key aspect of wireless technology, which needs to be take into serious consideration. In 2013, OECD, headed by Studdart, J 18acknowledged that data privacy, protection is becoming an ever-increasing 17 Geoff Appelboom, Annie H. Yang. The Promise of Wearable Activity Sensors to Define Patient Recovery. Journal of Clinical Neuroscience: Official Journal of the Neurosurgical Society of Australasia, 2013. doi:10.1016/j.jocn.2013.12.003. 18 Stoddart, J. Thirty Years After: OECD Privacy Guidelines, 2013. http://www.oecd.org/sti/ieconomy/49710223.pdf.


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problem, and serious measures must be taken for effective government of the same. In continuation, data mining tools are becoming more advanced and intelligent in terms of keyword searching, indexing of information and distributed location of storage including redundancy options. Sidelining this issue, is the matter of Big Data, which however is beyond the discussion of this paper, nevertheless it is worth mentioning here. According to the report, WSN (Wireless Sensor Networks) and actuators are the main sources of information harvesting, in addition to GPS and mobile access of internet can be used to track the location and activity of the user. In conjunction with the previous study connected with wearable devices, the human body can be viewed as source of information and therefore strong security data algorithm and security encryption including effective authentication systems are needed to protect the information. (Roberto, D et.al. 2011) has further investigated this19. WSN according to the authors are dissected in two main areas, in terms of information storage. The first being commercial, this pertains to consumption usage, e.g. within public utility companies, data can include amount of energy, water and gas consumed by the user within a given time period. The other information is contextual and personal information, which can include pattern of usage and geolocation of the user. This information for the potential hacker can be quite harmful. In typical circumstances, the hacker attempts intercept the broadcast transmission information by tuning to the radio frequency of the transmitting device. Additionally, the similar pattern has been observed within GSM mobile phone audio conversations, commonly known as phone tapping. As the data privacy and protection of information is becoming a major concern, it has led European Union Commission to formulate and pass data protection law, and is subject to revisions as the technology progress over time. The directive 95/46/EC20 identifies key areas within which, the data processing organisations have to abide with relevant laws pertaining to data integrity. In summary, the directive states that data must be collected and processed for stated purpose only, and not used or manipulated in any other way for other means. Secondly, the person on whom the data is being collected, cannot be named, unless prior approval, in terms of consent has been obtained from the individual, additionally, active steps must be taken to ensure that the data is stored and access in a secure manner. Specifically, within the sphere of wireless communication, the Government of United Kingdom has also incorporated a similar legislative framework through Wireless Telegraphy Act 200621. Within the United Kingdom, this legislation is enforced by OFCOM (Office of Communications). The legalisation covers a broad range of communication activities, starting from the mobile operators and broadcasters, which include but not limited to band spectrum licensing, limitations of licensing, mediation and arbitration in wireless technology. At the consumer level it deals with complaints and lack of service provisions by wireless technology companies, data protection and security, amongst others. In view of the above-mentioned issues relating to privacy and data protection, is has been observed that various wireless technology and ICT companies have their own code of ethics by 19 Di Pietro, Roberto, and Alexandre Viejo. Location Privacy and Resilience in Wireless Sensor Networks Querying. Computer Communications, Special Issue of Computer Communications on Information and Future Communication Security, 34, no. 3 (March 15, 2011): 51523. doi:10.1016/j.comcom.2010.05.014. 20 EUR-Lex - 31995L0046 - EN. Text/html; charset=UTF-8. Official Journal L 281 , 23/11/1995 P. 0031 - 0050;. Accessed March 12, 2015. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:31995L0046:en:HTML. 21 Wireless Telegraphy Act 2006. Text. Legislation.gov.uk, 2006. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/36/contents.


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which they run the organisation and process the information elicited through wireless technology. For example, in the case of Verizon Wireless, which is the biggest mobile phone operator in terms of market share within the United States, its code of ethics22 . Their code of ethics outline how they operate the company, service deliverables, meeting consumer (both internal and external) expectations, actions taken if the company fails to adhere and operate according to their stated principles, explaining how customers data is handled and processing and how the data is secured. Additionally, it outlines the performance expectations of the company. As more and more internet-connected devices are manufactured with an ever-decreasing time to market for product launches, the internet is becoming a dominant factor in revenue generation and economic development, with an ever-increasing upward trend. A recent article and a fact-finding study, commissioned by McKinsey Institute, the authors (Hazan et.al, 2011)23 suggest that internet, which is the primary product of wireless technology has transformed the current generation in many ways. Their findings estimate that 2 billion users are using the internet for personal or professional use, with a total of $8 trillion worth of information exchanged as a result and a third of the small business using internet-oriented technologies, with a sample survey conducted with 4800 SME (small medium enterprises) spanning over 12 countries. The research study conducted has shown that the internet has been accounted for 3.4% of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in over 13 countries surveyed by the institute having a combined GDP output, bigger than of Spain or Canada. Furthermore, their study has shown that the internet has perceived as an intrinsic value, which is quintessential for users. The institute found, in Germany, it is an estimated value of 13 per month / per user and rising to 20 per month / per user in the United Kingdom. In addition, growth has also added towards job recreation within the recruitment sector, thereby driving the sector forwards, in line with other sectors. It has been argued that the growth of internet has led to significant decline of jobs in some of the countries; however, the study finds that it has been contrasted with an upward trend in job creation. Over the last decade, the statistical figures show that 1.2 million jobs have been created with an estimated half a million of them being destroyed concerning the web technologies with a survey conducted with 4800 SMEs. This on an average creates 2.4 jobs for each of the terminated job. The impact of the internet and its associated benefits has also been felt across two other sectors. One of the ways, in which companies can keep their running costs to a minimum, is my eliminating paper use and using web-related technologies and by digitising data. Given the rise of the internet, it has led to increasing number of users shopping online. Therefore, companies can now further target market, and reach in increased user base by selling online. As the product is not sold in physical stores, they can afford to keep the price competitive. Looking back at the SMEs and their growth attributed towards web technologies, it has improved customer services and deliverables as a whole. Overall, the SLA (Service Level Agreement) between customers has been significantly which has led to greater expectation and overall quality assurance amongst the customers. The customers can both be internal or external customers. Presently, companies have been using IM (Instant Messaging) and emails as the 22 Verizon Wireless: Code of Conduct, 2014. http://www.verizon.com/about/sites/default/files/Verizon-Code-of-Conduct.pdf. 23 Hazan, E, J Bughin, M Chui, J Manyika, and M.P. Rausas. Internet Matters: The Nets Sweeping Impact on Growth, Jobs, and Prosperity | McKinsey & Company, May 2011. http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/high_tech_telecoms_internet/internet_matters.


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primary platform for delivering customer services within the business sector, thereby reducing call time and average wait time for each query to be answered. According to (Chui et.al. 2013)24 business are beginning to use CRM (Customer Relationship Marketing) software, which are web-enabled, and additionally, using ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) for effective customer service and product planning, in addition to effective organisational control. The study also found that Public Relations is the most used sector where web-centric technology is used. The institute conducted a survey in various companies, which the intention of asking about the extent of social internet technologies are used in their everyday task. Based on the responses, market plan development, managing sales and marketing activities are the three main tasks where the internet is used significantly to manage workflows. Additionally, the respondents were asked, in which way the internet has and web-centric technology affected their everyday lives. Surprisingly, the findings indicate, that using the internet, it has led to an enlightenment of knowledge, reduction in communication expenditure and lower travelling expenditure. The coming methodology aspect of this paper, this will be reinforced by empirical analysis. Government around the world have also benefited from the internet. In continuation of the previous study, McKinsey have shown, government are starting to implement online tax services, in addition to digitising municipal services, e-visa and issue of driver licences are also becoming common practice for various governments. Having discussed the technological and economic aspects of wireless technology, it is imperative to understand the implications of the same within sociological and demographical context. The authors (Wrench, et.al. 2007)25 in their article, introduce a definition called CMC (computer mediated communication) which essentially, is exchange of information using the computer as a medium through the internet, however the authors argue, that CMC is slightly different from other communication methods, as the speed of information exchange and its feedback felt are the major differentiation factors. In continuation, this is not a substitution for face-to-face interactions, due to the limitation of audio-visual exchange. The article continues to suggest, through (Chenault, 1998) that usually, CMC is the initial point of interaction between two individuals, which then gradually developed to a physical face-to-face interaction. This is reinforced by empirical studies, which have shown that 60.7% of relationships developed initially from CMC, with 30% resulting in physical contact, with common mediums being chatrooms, IRC (Internet Relay chat) and IM (Instant Messaging). Additionally, the article states that women are more likely to initiate a relationship through CMC rather than men. However, it should be noted that CMC is directly related to computer self-efficacy, which according to the article is the perceived ability of the individual to use computers in information technology, which was researched with various people. From the research conducted, it showed that there is a positive relationship between Internet self-efficacy and social=informational outcome expectancy, Internet experience, and Internet use. The researchers further found a negative relationship between Internet self-efficacy and Internet stress and self-disparagement 24 Chui, M, M Dewhurst, and L Pollak. Transforming the Business through Social Tools | McKinsey & Company, 2013. http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/high_tech_telecoms_internet/transforming_the_business_through_social_tools. 25 Jason S. Wrench and Narissra M. Punyanunt-Carter, The Relationship between Computer-Mediated-Communication Competence, Apprehension, Self-Efficacy, Perceived Confidence, and Social Presence, Southern Communication Journal 72, no. 4 (November 12, 2007): 35578, doi:10.1080/10417940701667696.


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However another key element of presence is vital towards establishing CMC and a virtual environment. Presence is conceptualisation of working within a virtual environment setting. Amongst the various factors that contribute towards establishing presence, one of them is the distraction factor with an inverse correlation towards being aloof in physical reality and working in online presence. This directly brings the factor of technoference which according to the authors (Brandon et.al. 2015) 26 is the amount of intrusion caused by technology, in this case, wireless technology in everyday lives of people. In order to get a quantitative analysis to determine the impact of the same, the authors conducted a research. According to the research, it was concluded that overall 91% of US people admitted to owning a mobile phone, comprising of, and 81% of adults within the age group of 25-34 used a smartphone. Additionally, 50% of the parents having the ownership of a tablet computer, and additionally, 72% of the overall research base people created and using their social media profile. This directly reinforces the inverse correlation by authors (Wrench, et.al. 2007). Furthermore, as the use of wireless technology and communication continues to rise, particularly amongst the upcoming generation, technoference seems to be playing an integral role in peoples lives. Additionally, this is having a significant impact on relationships with people both personal and professional. The recent study by authors (Leggett, et.al, 2014)27 from the University of Queensland, Australia, considers a neuropsychological aspect within technoference. It has been suggested, that the development of human brains is wired in such the way, that it is capable of understanding adjacent surroundings, assessing each information according to its merit, and forming social interactions together with forming inter-personal relationships. This in effect leads to, forming a presence online, which was earlier suggested by (Chenault, 1998). Moving forwards, the study suggests, with the increased usage of internet, which in effect is wireless communication exchange; it has beginning to blur lines between online and physical reality, which directly affects the couple, and family interpersonal relationships. In continuation, the authors suggest that increased use of online communication, including mobile phone usage and social media interaction alters the couple and familys relationship in very subtle ways, and in my occasions, they are not aware of how it has changed them as a whole. Whilst, according to the study there are other contributing factors for technoference, television has been cited as the most common associated influential factor in couples relationship towards wireless technology. It has been reported that couples and families watching TV together leads to positive correlation of interaction amongst couples whilst laptop use has quite the opposite effect and creates a distance between couples and families. In conclusion, the study finds that people are constantly altering their behaviour based on their use of technology, and this in effect creates a positive or negative correlation in their brains and associate relationships as such. If two individuals, be it couple or friends or family members seem to have using the technology in a mutually consented, it builds a common bond between them, due to the neuropsychological 26 Brandon T. McDaniel and Sarah M. Coyne, Technoference: The Interference of Technology in Couple Relationships and Implications for Womens Personal and Relational Well-Being, Psychology of Popular Media Culture, 2014, No Pagination Specified, doi:10.1037/ppm0000065. 27 Christina Leggett and Pieter Rossouw, The Impact of Technology Use on Couple Relationships: A Neuropsychological Perspective, International Journal of Neuropsychotherapy 2, no. 1 (January 1, 2014): 4499, doi:10.12744/ijnpt.2014.0044-0099.


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Figure 2: Methodology Mapping

Figure 3: Methodology Mapping

tendencies in our brain, otherwise it has the opposite effect. Another drawback of technoference is that it creates a spill-over between professional and personal life, this theory has been discussed by (Brandon et.al. 2015) as they state that contestant on technology especially within mobile phones, causes blurring of boundaries within the two enjoinments and often causes conflict. (Leggett, et.al, 2014) has reinforced this originally. The study continues to suggest that technoference also affects the sleep patterns had habits of an avid user of wireless technology. It has been shown, within the study that individuals routinely check their mobile phones at some intervals during the night, and keep technology devices switched on, when this becomes a regular habit, it begins to disrupt the sleep pattern of that individual, and additionally has an effect on the neuropsychological area within the brain. Another neuropsychological problem with this type of technology is that it creates an emotional attachment towards the device, which the person is using. Within the study, it has been reported by several authors that persons begin to form strong emotional connections with their mobile devices and it evokes satisfaction and gratification whenever they use such devices. Some of the feelings which the person can feel is being loved and additionally, being a task organiser for the user, due to its multifunction capabilities. However, in contrast there has been a positive result due to wireless technology as well. According to (Brandon et.al. 2015)28 their study suggests that technology has had a positive effect on within relationships with only 18% indicating otherwise. Additionally, it has suggested that technology enables people to be connected with each other and can increase the commitment and satisfaction with each other. Methodology

As this paper focuses on impact of wireless technology, the methodology takes inspiration from Diamond Poppers29 foresight planning methods. A combination of research methods which include, KCT (Key Critical Technologies), SWOT (Strengths Weakness Opportunities and Threats), STEEPV (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental/Ecological, Political and Value-based issues) with the last option of SCN (Scenarios) which would include the future of wireless technology within the next 20 years.

28 McDaniel, Brandon T., and Sarah M. Coyne. Technoference: The Interference of Technology in Couple Relationships and Implications for Womens Personal and Relational Well-Being. Psychology of Popular Media Culture, 2014, No Pagination Specified. doi:10.1037/ppm0000065. 29 Popper, R. (2008) Foresight Methodology, in Georghiou, L., Cassingena, J., Keenan, M., Miles, I. and Popper, R. (eds.), The Handbook of Technology Foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, pp. 44-88.


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Figure 5: Semiconductor Roadmap

Figure 4: Semiconductor Prices

Critical Technologies The term critical technologies, as described by United Nations Industrial Development Program30 in association with Steven W. Popper is a technology which needs to withstand the political interference together with a special focus on R&D process ranging from development through to commercialisation. Secondly, the technology must be clearly distinguishable from other technologies, in such a manner that makes it obvious, additionally; care must be taken to avoid mixing non-critical technologies whilst aggregating. Finally, the technology that deems to satisfy the above-mentioned criteria must be reproducible; its reconstruction must be publicly accessible with a transparent process. Having identified the standards for critical technology, this method has been applied to wireless technology and together with the literature review; it has been observed that WSN (Wireless Sensor Network) and Cellular Communications are one of the critical technological elements within wireless technologies. Cellular Communication Cellular Communication is a collection of wireless technology standards incorporating GSM, GPRS, 3G, the present day 4G and the upcoming 5G31. Based on the literature review, it is evident that the society is increasingly becoming dependant on this technology. Furthermore,

telecommunication is the single most factor, which is providing the fastest bandwidth per customer when viewed across the digital divide and can be reproduced on both low and high level communications, namely IoTs and the internet. Secondly, telecommunication is one of the most commercialised technology in the present market and has the most R&D input and output than other technological standards such as ZigBee etc... Additionally, as the technology progresses, the lifecycle of

products incorporating this technology becomes shorter. This in effect is closed linked to technology push and pull within wireless. Technology push is considered

30 United Nations, Critical Technologies, 2004, http://www.unido.org/fileadmin/import/16961_CriticalTechnologies.pdf. 31 Haider, F, Y Yang, Y Dongfeng, and H Aggoune. Cellular Architecture and Key Technologies for 5G Wireless Communication Networks, February 2014. http://cms.comsoc.org/SiteGen/Uploads/Public/Docs_TC_5GMWI/Cellular_Architecture_and_Key.pdf.


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Figure 6: ITU Figures

a part of the business scenario whereby the innovation is delivered through R&D process, in juxtaposition, demand-pull (technology) innovation delivered according to market requirements. The key to both demand-pull and technology push invariably lies with the technological advancements within the semiconductor manufacturing. The above-mentioned exhibit identifies key milestones achieved within the semiconductor packaging. With each milestone achieved over the years, the feature size of the components have gotten smaller and cheaper. In addition, the recent study conducted by Parpala32, 2014, commissioned by the Semiconductor Association exhibits the falling price of semiconductor components, since the 1990s to 2006. Additionally, from year 2000 to 2006, the price of semiconductor has fallen by almost 50%. This in return is making the lifecycle of telecommunication products shorter and making them more affordable. In particular, this trend can be observed within the developing countries where the falling telecoms product prices have had a positive impact on peoples purchasing power, this in lieu drives the economy forwards thereby adding to GDP and fuels the demand pull of the same. Garbacz and Thompson Jr33 observe that due to regularisation of telecommunication has given rise to privatisation within the sector, this has in effect given rise to competition amongst manufacturers and mobile operators34 with the creation of MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Operator). This trend has been observed within the United Kingdom (gifgaff, virgin mobile, TalkTalk mobile, Lyca mobile) and the United States (Boost Mobile, Cricket Wireless) to name a few. In combination of attractive network tariffs, the MVNOs create direct competition with mainstream network operators to create competition and value for end users, thereby creating a demand-pull, as consumers strive

for an ever-increasing quest for mobile internet bandwidth and always on connectivity. Notwithstanding, combined with cheap BOM (Bill of Materials), there is an ever-increasing influx of cellular products within the consumer market. The exhibit take from the recent facts published by the ITU35 at the beginning of 2014, it can be deduced that number of active mobile broadband connections have risen to 84% within the developed countries, which is a rise of more than 60% starting 2007. Additionally, within the developing

countries, a rise of 21% increased per 100 inhabitants using mobile broadband can be seen. Furthermore, the article believes that 2.3 billion active mobile subscribers will be using the mobile broadband at the latter end of 2014, which approximately five as many subscribers as they were few years ago. In addition, it has been estimated that mobile communication will penetrate 90% of the developing countries in contrast with above cent percent average in developed nations. 32 Parpala, M. The U.S. Semiconductor Industry: Growing Our Economy Through Innovation, August 2014. http://go.semiconductors.org/growing-our-economy-through-innovation. 33 Garbacz, Christopher, and Herbert G. Thompson Jr. Demand for Telecommunication Services in Developing Countries. Telecommunications Policy 31, no. 5 (June 2007): 27689. doi:10.1016/j.telpol.2007.03.007. 34 OECD. OECD Communications Outlook 2013. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2013. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/content/book/comms_outlook-2013-en. 35 The World in 2014: ICT Facts and Figures. ITU. Accessed March 14, 2015. http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Pages/facts/default.aspx.


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Figure 10: Google Trends: Keyword: Internet of Things

Figure 8: Google Trend: Regional Interest

Figure 9: Google Trends: Keyword: Internet of Things

Figure 7: Key ICT Indicators

Additionally, the figure above, taken from the OCED36 seems to reconfirm the earlier claims by the ITU in relation to over cent percent penetration of cellular connectivity within developing countries. The exhibit suggests, Finland having the most mobile data subscriptions, amounting to 122.4% in juxtaposition, the United States has no fixed mobile data subscription but has 100% standard mobile phone subscription. A recent search in Google Trends was

conducted with keyword: wireless technology and it has been revealed that the most interest came from the developing countries, which include India, Singapore and Philippines; this again coincides with the penetration and active mobile user base as reported earlier. Wireless Sensor Networks

WSN is a collection of interconnected sensors and

actuators, which use wireless communication technology for transmission of data, such as 36 OECD: Key ICT Indicators. http://www.oecd.org/sti/broadband/1.2-OECD-WiredWirelessBB-2014-06.xls, Accessed: 14th march 2015


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Figure 9: IoT Vision

IPv6LowPAN and RFID are some common examples of low-level connectivity between devices. It is important to differentiate them with regular products. WSN devices are severely restricted in communication due to their feature size geolocation and operational requirements make is unfeasible for interdependent communication. Instead, they rely on middleware and top-level hardware for internet communication. Colloquially they are called I.o.T (Internet of Things). This is the second key technology element, which comprises the wireless communication area. It can be observed from the recent analysis conducted from Google Trends, with keywords: Internet of Things, the term has gained significant traction starting from the latter half 2011 through to the present day. This is mainly attributed to the advancement of low level communication standards which have enabled the I.o.T to be incorporated within the wireless

communication arena. This upward trend has been reconfirmed by (Rajkumar et.al. 2014)37 who discuss the value proposition presented by this. Several service sectors have exhibited a need for sensing equipment with wireless capability, for example within healthcare, transportation, logistics etc.. As previously mentioned within the literature review, using MEMS technology such realisations would not

have been possible if it were not for I.o.T, which are in fact a critical bridge between mainstream communication devices and sensors, which provide real-time data to these devices. In continuation, the adjacent exhibit taken from the previous article, and additionally cited by Gartner 2012 Hype Cycle of emerging technologies. This directly coincides with the results obtained from Google Trends, this again reinforces the notion of I.o.T is starting to emerge as a major trend within wireless technology in more than 10 years time which is estimated to be 2022. If this information is correlated to Integrated Circuit packaging exhibit by (Parpala, 2014) on page 25, the lithography and features size of the I.o.T is getting smaller, this will give rise to an influx of sensors, M2M (Machine-to-Machine) processors, and actuator systems. In fact, TCS (Tata Consultancy services)38 have even gone forwards and stated the I.o.T is all set to become the Internet of Everything, this again highlights that this is a critical technology, which lies at the heart of wireless communication. The figures obtained from their whitepaper suggest a dramatic increase in temporary and permanently inter-connected devices using the internet to transmit 37 Jayavardhana, G, B Rajkumar, S Marusic, and M Palaniswami. Internet of Things (IoT): A Vision, Architectural Elements, and Future Directions. 2013 Elsevier B.V., February 24, 2014. 38 Jalali, S, and S Arora. Technology Review and Trends in M2M Communication. TATA Consultancy Services, 2012. http://www.tcs.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/White%20Papers/HighTech_Whitepaper_Technology_Review_Trends_M2M_Communication_0212-1.pdf.


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Figure 10: Global Wearable Traffic

information. In 2010, according to the whitepaper, there were 15 billion permanently inter-connected devices, while in contrast there were 50 billion temporary inter-connected devices using the internet. However ten years later, in 2020, it has been predicted that the volume of I.o.T devices is said to double, with more than 30 billion permanent and 200 billion temporary inter-connected devices. This effectively means that in 20 years, the temporary device market has grown four times annually with 20 times the volume as in the previous 20 years. Additionally, there has been a 100% increase in permanent devices as well. Based on this information it reinforces the notion, that this technology plays a key part in push-pull market strategy, with the demand-pull figures reflecting the same. The consumers are moving towards and always-on-always-connected society, which would not have been possible without the I.o.T. (Tiwari, 2014) has observed another direct correlation of this statement39 in his recent study submitted to MarketWatch he expects the total sales generated by I.o.Ts alone would be $196 billion USD by year 2020. Upon computation, when combined with figures by TCS equates to $6.53 USD [ ] in revenue generated by permanently connected devices and $0.98 USD [], thereby supporting the always-on notion. Furthermore, the SWSN (Semiconductor Wireless Sensor Networks), which as identified by the article are key enablers of I.o.T, have also added to the revenue growth of I.o.T, which are expected to reach $12 billion in year 2020, an estimated 9 billion devices by 2020. This is due to the demand-pull created for smartphone applications, which rely on WSN, for example, mobile phone satnav, fitness sensors as those manufactured by FitBit and

Microsoft, heavily rely on GPS and body sensors for operation. I.o.T is also having a major impact on healthcare services as sensors as beginning to be deployed within a hospital setting, the literature review suggests that instead of hospitalisation, patients are wear sensors which can monitor their vital signs thereby saving time and cost. Having stated the same, the numerical data obtained from Statista in 201540 shows sales revenue of $0.17m in 2014 of I.o.T. within the United States, rising to 1.12m in 2015, representing a rise 0.42m of sales revenue.

Additionally, it has been forecasted that sales revenue will rise to 4.5m USD in 2018, representing a growth of $3.38m beginning 2015. Based on the evidence it can be deduced that I.o.T is creating a demand-pull within the healthcare industry. The demand-pull does not only affect the healthcare sector, but also the wearable devices consisting of I.o.T is also generating significant demand for internet bandwidth, the mind boggling figures shown below give an idea 39 Tiwari, P. IoT Market Research Reports: Technology, Application, M2M & Semiconductor Wireless Sensor Internet of Things 2014 Analysis and 2020 Forecasts. MarketWatch. Accessed March 15, 2015. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iot-market-research-reports-technology-application-m2m-semiconductor-wireless-sensor-internet-of-things-2014-analysis-and-2020-forecasts-2014-05-28. 40 Global Telehealth Market Size 2013-2018 | Statistic. Statista, 2013. http://www.statista.com/statistics/302621/global-telehealth-market-revenue/.


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Figure 11 Adult Gadget Ownership Figure 11: Digital Differences

of the field in which the society is playing. The data is represented in petabytes (PB). 1PB = 1.04810 GB (gigabytes), therefore, in in 2014, 15 petabytes or 1.5710GB of internet bandwidth was consumer by wearable devices, thereby attributing to demand-pull scenario. It has been forecasted that such a trend will rise exponentially to 277PB or 2.910GB in 2019. Consequentially, in order to meet such a staggering demand for consumption, wireless technology is being pushed towards to meet the current demand through LTE, and other high bandwidth cellular standards such as the upcoming 5G, thereby creating a circle of innovation. Based on the the KCT (Key Critical Technology) and Technology push-pull strategy, it is clear, that the future of the wireless communication lies at the heart of WSN and the Internet, which act as key enablers, with major technological trends, as consumers move towards a virtual society. STEEPV Based on the Handbook of Foresight Planning41 (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental/Ecological, Political and Value-based issues) is a key analysis conducted within wireless technology which can identify the future trends, developments and innovations within the same. Social

The impact of wireless technology has been felt across the social sector, affecting the lives of individuals in many different ways, this begins with analysing the demographics of the population using the technology. Recently Pew Research42 has shown the differences in demographics using the internet or wireless technology vary significantly. According to the research, for every five senior persons within the United States, one of them claims not to use the internet, despite knowing the technology operation. These categories of persons belong to the lower earning category comprising of $30,000 or below annual income. The primary reason for the persons not using the internet

is that they do not find the technology relevant or useful in their lives. The demographic data has shown that senior citizens within the United States are using the wireless technology on a frequent basis. The study from Pew Research in 201343 has shown that 77% of them are using mobile phones, as compared with 69% in 2012, giving a rise of 8% annual increase. In contrast, according to the same article, it has suggested that the after 75 years, the wireless technology usage within senior citizens starts to decline, is consistent with slow degradation of comprehension by the human brain as in the old age.

41 Eurofund. Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight | Eurofound. Accessed March 17, 2015. http://eurofound.europa.eu/publications/2003/other/handbook-of-knowledge-society-foresight. 42 Zickuhr, Kathryn, and Aaron Smith. Digital Differences. Pew Research Centers Internet & American Life Project. Accessed March 17, 2015. http://www.pewinternet.org/2012/04/13/digital-differences/. 43 Smith, Aaron. Older Adults and Technology Use. Pew Research Centers Internet & American Life Project. Accessed March 17, 2015. http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/04/03/older-adults-and-technology-use/.


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The second social aspect that can be considered is how people use wireless technology for communication during their everyday lives. The study44 shows almost 50% of young adults under 25 years old use a mobile phone while eating, whilst only 27% of over 25 years old use their phones while eating. This shows that the young population is using the technology on a more frequent basis tying in with earlier results obtained from literature review and previous datasets, as the society progress virtually. However, an interesting trend can be identified by observing the statistic on fig.1. On a 6-year average, it can be observed, that the number of mobile phone owners are continuing to rise, starting from 73% to 88%, thereby remaining relatively stable with a continuing upward trend. Wilson Electronics45 conducted another demographic research regarding the number of mobile phone holders, with Russia being at the top most level having 1.3 mobile phones per customer amounting to 187million, which According to Neilson46 accounts for 51% of the population. This fact shows that people are using wireless communication as a means of social interaction. Furthermore, to reiterate the notion always-on-always-connected society, within the literature review and the KCT methodology, if the figure 1 facts regarding the desktop usage is observed, the trend is declining. This effectively shows that people are increasingly becoming more mobile in terms of professional and personal activities, which has been previously introduced in the literature review. Technological Technology is the second element within STEEPV analysis. Based on the journal of foresight, as previously mentioned Journal of foresight by Eurofund47 this element analyses the current and future trend in wireless technology, which is essentially divided in aspects, including hardware and software development, manufacturing process together with bandwidth capability for serving the future needs of the society and information exchange. Within this scenario, it is imperative to understand the Moores Law, which is the so-called Bible of current and future technology progression. Gordon Moore who is the co-founder of Intel Inc. invented this law, states; the number of transistors per square inch within an Integrated Circuit (IC) will double each year. Subsequently, based on the literature review, and Case Technologies, it can be deduced that such a trend has been gradually progressing, however recently as the packing density of transistors within microprocessors has decreased, the data availability has increased by a significant amount. From the literature review and KCL it can be see, technologies such as 3G and 4G with upcoming 5G are providing faster data bandwidth, whilst the feature size occupied by the microprocessor has not changed significantly. As the wireless technology progresses puts emphasis on portability, which can be seen from WSN and mobile and smartphones, one of the key emphasis is on low power based technologies within the wireless communication. The Internet of Things, which is acting as a key enabler for low power transmission, has expedited 44 Grace, B. The Demographics of Cell Phone Usage! Top Mobile Trends. Accessed March 17, 2015. http://topmobiletrends.com/demographics-cell-phone-usage/. 45 Grace, B. The Demographics of Cell Phone Usage! Top Mobile Trends. Accessed March 17, 2015. http://topmobiletrends.com/demographics-cell-phone-usage/. 46 Nielsen Holdings, ed. The Mobile Consumer: A Global Snapshot: 2013, 2013. http://www.nielsen.com/content/dam/corporate/uk/en/documents/Mobile-Consumer-Report-2013.pdf. 47 Eurofund. Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight | Eurofound. Accessed March 17, 2015. http://eurofound.europa.eu/publications/2003/other/handbook-of-knowledge-society-foresight.


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Figure 13: Extended CMOSFigure 12: Extended CMOS

Figure 12: Extended CMOS

the development of new low power transmission standards, such as 6LowPAN and ZigBee which are a part of WSN. Both of these low power technologies operate at higher frequencies, and utilise minimal power consumption for data transmission amongst the I.o.T. 6LoWPAN48 [IP version 6 Low Power Personal Area Network] runs on PHY (Physical layer) using IPv6 (Internet Protocol) 802.154 RF range as formulated by the Internet Engineering Task Force. ZigBee on other hand, whilst quite similar to 6LoWPAN differs in networking operation stack layer. Rather than using the PHY, which is lowest level communication which doesnt require a header within network communications stack, it uses MAC (Media Access Control) layer, which is higher than PHY, which has its disadvantages, as it needs complex gateway for communication. However, both communication standards are inter-operable. Another key technology is Nanotechnology within Wireless Communications. Nanotechnology is the production of component structures, which have a feature size ranging from 1-100nm, which spans across Physics, Chemistry and Biology. As the technology progresses further, in accordance to Moores Law, the feature size of components needs to become smaller thereby creating a requirement for nanotechnology to be incorporated within wireless components. Nanotechnology solves two key purposes. The first being operable using low power devices, i.e. I.o.T. and secondly being able to transmit data actively or passively such as in RFID (Radio

Frequency Identification Devices) using high frequency. The observatoryNANO49 has in their article have stated that the current communication technologies are unable to cope with the demands in data bandwidth and that molecular solution needs to be found, this technology will enable development smaller, cheaper and fast devices in data transmission. Moving forwards, this has effectively led to development in 22nm technology currently used by Intel SOC (System on Chip) microprocessors, which are used within the wireless communications50. Additionally, the article states this technology can be used in high

frequency data transmission ranging from 2-50 GHz and in future providing up to 100GHz, using NEMS (Graphene nanoelectromechanical), which essentially are devices operating with combination of electro mechanics on a nano meter scale. This again is used as reference point 48 Sarto, J. ZigBee VS. 6LoWPAN for Sensor Networks. LSR Research. Accessed March 19, 2015. http://www.lsr.com/white-papers/zigbee-vs-6lowpan-for-sensor-networks. 49 ObservatoryNANO [EU Commission]. Nanotechnology for Wireless Communications, 2011. http://www.nanopinion.eu/sites/default/files/briefing_no.25_nanotechnology_for_wireless_communications.pdf. 50 Intel 22 Nm Technology. Intel. Accessed March 19, 2015. http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/silicon-innovations/intel-22nm-technology.html?track=1&id=f48ca76b-2d82-4cf3-a9a1-2011abcca345&type=PER&val=&orderId=&valueCurrency=&promoCode=&ref=http://www.google.com/url%3Fsa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CDAQFjAD&ei=PPQKVeq3BYPPaKSYgLAE&usg=AFQjCNHZCgYKrHCG7kUEh6s3gqIe191VMg&bvm=bv.88528373,d.ZWU.


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within MIMO (Multiple Input and Multiple Output) and 5GHz WiFi 802.11ac transmission, thermo-electric charge devices and PCM (Phase Change Modulation) platforms51. Without nanotechnology, it would not have been possible, this has also given rise to Nano sensors, which are used in wearable devices presently and based on previous literature review in conjunction with methodology are the future of nanotechnology implementation. It has been estimated that nanotechnology is expected to add just under 100 billion in 2015. With advancements made within communication standards, nanotechnology is increasingly being used within CMOS (Complementary, Metal-Oxide Semiconductor), which is used manufacturing of Integrated Circuits using FET (Field Effect Transistors). According to the latest report by ITRS52 the semiconductor industry has been moving towards Extended CMOS, using More and Moore technology using integration of analog functions within CMOS53 commonly known as mixed signal. ITRS suggests that the implementation of mixed signals together with existing CMOS element within information processing are pushing towards extending the limits and functionality of the same. Environment Environment is an important but overlooked factor within technological area. Nevertheless, it is imperative to analyse the impact to understand the future benefits and issue why may arise. As wireless technology primarily consists of EMW (Electromagnetic Waves) which emit radiation, which affects the environment in terms of emissions and creates Green House effect, thereby contributing to global warming. Additionally, the impact of this technology on humans should also be taken into consideration. Recently BSR research in association with CITA Wireless Association54 examined the effects of wireless on the natural environment. Due to the combination of factors including push-pull, stated previously within this paper, an increasing number of people are working remotely, this in effect increases their movement this in turn increases transportation thereby adding to emissions, which is estimated to be forty percent for total emission in USA as of late 2011. This trend has further been citied by The Guardian55, in which it was reported that The Centre for Energy-Efficient Telecommunications estimated around 30 megatons of carbon emissions have been added due to wireless technology between 2012 to 2015, which is equal vent of adding

51 Crowford, S. Nanotechnology Introduction Series: Communications. The Future of Human Evolution. Accessed March 19, 2015. http://futurehumanevolution.com/nanotechnology-introduction-series-communications. 52 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors: 2013: Emerging Research Devices Summary. 2013, ITRS, 2013. http://www.itrs.net/ITRS%201999-2014%20Mtgs,%20Presentations%20&%20Links/2013ITRS/2013Chapters/2013ERD_Summary.pdf. 53 XFab. What Is More than Moore? Accessed March 19, 2015. http://www.xfab.com/technology/more-than-moore/what-is-more-than-moore/. 54 Wireless and the Environment: A Review of Opportunities and Challenges | Reports. Accessed March 19, 2015. http://www.bsr.org/en/our-insights/report-view/wireless-and-the-environment-a-review-of-opportunities-and-challenges. 55 Newstead, Stuart, and Howard Williams. Constant Access to Wireless Networks Has an Environmental Cost. The Guardian. Accessed March 19, 2015. http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/wireless-networks-environmental-costs.


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Figure 14: Globalisation and Wireless Communication

4.9m cars on the street. Furthermore, GSM Association56 estimates the energy consumption is to rise by 51% by year 2020. This is directly related to emerging developments in low power technology as discussed previously due in efforts to decrease the energy consumption and low the carbon footprint within the devices and their subsequent operation. GSM Association has suggested using solar power for base stations could reduce the carbon emissions by 4,580 Kg every year with an additional saving of 649 Kg by eliminating diesel generators, this however comes at a price whereby redundancy options are removed in case of power failure. Within the transportation sector, BSR has suggested fleet management for heavy good transportation using wireless technology, which is based on location-based systems such as GPS and M2M technology. It has been estimated potentially 36 metric tonnes if carbon emissions could be saved within United States alone, in addition wireless technology can give 360 million metric tonnes of carbon emissions using two-way telecommunication using the I.o.T. Due to the increase in global population, from 7 to an estimated 9 billion by year 2050, the pressure on agriculture is ever more essential. Therefore, within the agricultural setting, remote sensors can be used for crop monitoring and effective planning. By implanting remote monitoring sensors using WSN together with low power saving features, approximately 11-20% of water resources could be conserved. This bring up an

important of waste disposal and end of life options regarding discarded wireless products. The Guardian57 has suggested that most of the electronic waste, sub constituting wireless products is being dumped in developing countries, with an estimated 250,000 tonnes of waste being generated out of EU alone was shipped last

year to African and Asian regions. One way of curbing the disposal is encouraging recycling by using biodegradable components. However, waste disposal and management remains a clear problem as of today. Human being have also been exposed to both positive and negative effects of electromagnetic radiation. The jury is currently out, debating the potential damaging impact on health. Recently the United Nations5859 conducted a research into the effects of electromagnetic waves on

human body, the results obtained were inconclusive and no positive correlation could be found. Economic

56 GSM Association. Environmental Impact of Mobile Communications Networks. Mobile Technology, Health and the Environment. Accessed March 19, 2015. http://www.gsma.com/publicpolicy/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/environmobilenetworks.pdf. 57 Vidal, John. Toxic E-Waste Dumped in Poor Nations, Says United Nations. The Guardian. Accessed March 19, 2015. http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/dec/14/toxic-ewaste-illegal-dumping-developing-countries. 58 WHO | Electromagnetic Fields and Public Health: Mobile Phones. WHO. Accessed March 19, 2015. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs193/en/. 59 WHO | Electromagnetic Fields and Public Health. WHO. Accessed March 19, 2015. http://www.who.int/peh-emf/publications/facts/fs304/en/.


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In addition to the statistics laid out previously within this paper, this aspect will analyse the overall GDP contribution and globalisation of wireless technology60. Wireless technology has influenced the world economy in far-fetched ways, bringing people and technology ever so close to each other generating an even bigger value61. It has been estimated by Cisco that a turnover of $14.4tr over the next decade would be generated by this technology. Within the financial sector, wireless communication has brought financial services together, with payment methods such as SWIFT, BACS, NFC (contactless), Fast Payments amongst others; a payment could be made at any point in the world and could transacted within days if not hours. In the last few years, I.o.T and low power technologies have made significant advancements within POS (Point of Sale) which has led ePOS, which is a mobile POS with a cellular capability. Therefore, by internet payment methods together with ePOS systems, wireless technology has given the rise to e-commerce, with the evidence covered within previous methodologies, Juniper Research62 states that e shopping outlets such has Alibaba, eBay and Amazon have accounted for 20% global business to consumer transactions, with US retailer generating $10.4bn in 2013 alone. This further reinforces the trend of an ever-progressing virtual society as the influx and mobile penetration of wireless technology continues to grow. ITU in their report published in 2013,63 have claimed the global penetration of wireless technology has reached 96% to almost 7 billion mobile subscriptions worldwide, which effectively means almost each person having a cellular device. The impact of the penetration can be felt in the overall GDP, which was explored by GSM Association. Based on the report64 $2 tn (trillion) has been generated by wireless technology and rising to an estimated $2.9tn in 2020. It is expected that United States would be generating $1.4bn by 2020, in addition to $576bn of income in smartphone applications and advertising. Having observed the statistical data, this directly reflects a paradigm shift in todays and future society as it moves towards virtualisation. The demand-pull created by consumer is staggering, which has reflected in technology push as previously mentioned within earlier methodologies. It can be effectively said, that technology-push is playing a catch up game in order to meet the current and future consumer demand. In addition, the internet penetration within first world countries will have reached 84% with third world countries increasing up to 21% in 2014, with Africa making steady gains within this arena from 2% in 2010 to 20% 2014. This again is attributed to cheaper wireless products, together with push, and pull demand created by consumers using the internet. Another emerging trend of wearable technology can be seen as a significant contributor to the annual GDP. Considering the revenue of Telehealth, Statista reports a significant sales revenue is expected to be achieved in years to come, estimating to be 4.5 billion dollars by year 2018, whilst rising from 1.15 billion dollars in 2015, representing an increase of 65 3.35 billion dollars. The upward trend

60 Eurofund. Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight | Eurofound. Accessed March 17, 2015. http://eurofound.europa.eu/publications/2003/other/handbook-of-knowledge-society-foresight. 61 Accenture. Accenture Technology Vision 2014. Accenture, 2014. http://www.accenture.com/microsites/it-technology-trends-2014/Pages/tech-vision-report.aspx. 62 Holden, Windsor. Paying the Digital Way, June 2014. http://www.juniperresearch.com/shop/viewwhitepaper.php?id=762&whitepaper=268. 63 The World in 2014: ICT Facts and Figures. ITU. Accessed March 14, 2015. http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Pages/facts/default.aspx. 64 The Mobile Economy 2014. GSMA, 2014. http://gsmamobileeconomyeurope.com/. 65 Global Telehealth Market Size 2013-2018 | Statistic. Statista, 2013. http://www.statista.com/statistics/302621/global-telehealth-market-revenue/.


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wireless technology towards revenue growth is having a significant impact within retail sales within the European Union, with Germany and UK being the most spenders in this area. Between years, 2013-14 Germany spent almost 465.09m, as compared to 167.95m, thereby representing an increase of almost four times the annual revenue. Similarly, within the UK, 395.45m was spent in 2014, as compared to 140.67m spent in 2013, thereby witnessing an increase of almost three-times.66. The above mentioned figures are directly translate to Christmas sales within UK, with fitness and activity tracking devices being the most popular. In year 2014, they remained a popular choice as a Christmas gift amongst consumers, whilst generating a net revenue of 29.87m and smart watches jumped in popularity, having an exponential growth between years 2013-14, rising from 2.9m in 2013 to 25.04m in 2014. Thus, by taking a holistic view of the economic scenario within this sector, it can be inferred that demand pull created by consumers are being directly reflected towards spending, which in turn is reflected towards sales and annual GDP, thereby driving the economy forwards. Political Given the rise in Information Technology, particularly within the wireless communication, with consumers and users spending significant amount of their time using virtual communication, together with a foreseeable increase in the future. There is a need for regulation in its effective use, proportional monitoring and forward-linking structural guidance for the future. Having defined the scope of the topic, this paper shall discuss legal trends within telecommunication, together with security and privacy issues including anti-competitiveness, in particular the UK. Ever since the introduction of telecoms within the UK in the late 80s, it characterised only basic services e.g. voice and text messages using cellular technology67. Additionally, during the same period, most of network operators were nationalised with the competition being minimal. Furthermore, due to lack of location and tracking based services being inactive within mobile phones, the issue of security and privacy was not considerable. However, during the recent years as location and GPS technology, together with the complexity of wireless communication has increased, based on previous analysis, several new and existing wireless communication policies have undergone an overhaul. Several countries have promoted wireless communication through increased competition, liberalisation and privatisation of services; which was the primary goal of the US telecommunications Act 1997 and auctioning of band spectrum (RF) within the UK. According to ITU68, between years 2008-2013, the number of regulators have increased significantly, along with competition within the sector. Additionally, it has been noted that mobile broadband sector had the lowest monopoly, with most competitiveness. This because, UK has been regarded as the most open country, in terms of free market within the EU, thereby giving maximum benefit to the end user6970. This however has created a need for a 66 Wearable Technology Sales Revenue in Europe 2013-2014 | Statistic. Statista, 2013. http://www.statista.com/statistics/375909/wearables-sales-revenue-by-european-countries/. 67 Galli, Giampaolo, and Jacques Pelkmans. Regulatory Reform and Competitiveness in Europe: Vertical Issues. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2000. 68 ITU. Emerging Regulatory Trends, 2013. https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/serv_e/wkshop_june13_e/fall_e.pdf. 69 Mazar, Haim. An Analysis of Regulatory Frameworks for Wireless Communications, Societal Concerns and Risk: The Case of Radio Frequency (RF) Allocation and Licensing. Universal-Publishers, 2009.


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regulatory body, which led to the creation of OFCOM (Office of Communications) within the UK, which has enforcement powers granted by the government in wide array of matters, pertaining to wireless communication. The organisation is responsible for auctioning radio frequency bands, which was observed with the launch of 4G. A reform in communications act 2003, section 15271 was amended to enable auctioning. This has led to increased competition among mobile operators to offer 4G services to consumers. In 2014, RootMetrics72 conducted a review of major network operators within the UK, (EE, Vodafone, O2 and Three) in their report it has been observed that the reliability and performance improvement has been attributed towards the increased competition amongst network operators, which benefit the consumer. Additionally, 4G band auctioning has raised 2.4 billion which is a significant contribution towards the annual GDP, with an additional 20bn in expected income73. With the rise of wireless technology evolutions, coupled with incentives offered by mobile operators along with cheaper cellular devices, users and businesses are increasingly spending their time online using their cellular devices for personal, financial and professional transactions. This additionally has given rise to cybercrime, bullying and harassment within the same medium. Therefore, it has become necessary for governments to protect venerable adults and children against victimisation in places such as the internet, mobile communication and social media networks. Within the United States, there have been increasing number of instances where children and young adults have suffered some form of bullying, harassment or abuse using wireless communication74. Additionally, Statista has reported that between 10-15% of office workers have been subject to bullying, harassment and abuse using wireless communication within the US and UK75. In order to address the emerging problem, in 201376 the British Government began consultations in making the internet a safer place for its citizens. Because of the consultations, UK Council for Child Internet Safety (UKCCIS) was formed, with the primary objective of safeguarding internet activity of children and additionally cracking down on paedophiles and child trafficking using the internet in collaboration with the police and internet service providers together with mobile operators. In addition, to issues above, cybercrime is also seen as emerging problem77, attributed to the growth of wireless technology. 70 Govt of the United Kingdom. M