Thailand great flood 2011:Looking back and looking foreward

Seree Supratid (D.Eng.)

The Sirindhorn International Environmental ParkClimate Change and Disaster Center, Rangsit U.

During the past decade, weather patterns in Thailand have fluctuated from severe droughts and floods

(AR4, 2007)

(2009) (2011)

โลกFClimate Change Impact and Adaptation in Coastal Asian Cities (2008-2009) :Manila, Bangkok, Ho Chi Min, Kolkata

World Bank, JBIC, ADB, JICA

Hot spot vulnerable areas

EEPSEA,2009

BKKมุมไบ

Kolkataดกัคา

Ho Chi Minh

เซี ยงไฮ้

กวางตุง้ไมอามี

ไฮฟอง

10 coastal flood cities (OECD, 2007)

Manila

Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for Bangkok Metropolitan region, World Bank(2009)

• Global model• Horizontal Resolution: 200-300 km

Regional modelHorizontalResolution: 50 km

Driving

Driving

Mesoscale model HorizontalResolution: 2.5-10 km

Driving

Local model HorizontalResolution: 20-200 m

Downscaling

Remarks

Models SRESsGlobalData set

Downscaletechnique

ResolutionTimehorizon

PRESIS A2,B2 ECHAM4 Dynamic 20 x 201970-1999 2010-2099

RegCM3 A2,B2 ECHAM5 Dynamic 20 x 201971-1990 2007-2027

GCMGFDL-R30

A2,B2 Statistical 50 x 501961-1990 2010-2039

MM5 A2,A1B CCSM3 Dynamic 25 x 251970-1999 2010-2039

Review RCMs for Thailand

WRF A1B ECHAM5 Dynamic 60 x 601990-1999 2045-2054

2050 Climate Change Factors

1.91.91.91.9

1.21.21.21.2

3333

2222

0.290.290.290.29

0.190.190.190.19

0.610.610.610.61

0.610.610.610.61

0.050.050.050.05−−−− 0.30.30.30.3

0.050.050.050.05−−−− 0.30.30.30.3

1) Heavy rainfall

3) Subsidence

2) Sea level rise

4) Land-use plan

5) Management

External and internal drivers

for Bangkok flood

Chao Phraya river basin

• Basin area: about 162,800 km2

• 4 rivers (Ping river,Wang river, Yom river, Nan river) confluent at Nakhon Sawan

P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9

P10

P11

P12

P13

P14

P16

P17

P19

P20

P21

Bhumibol Dam Sirikit Dam

Khwae Noi Dam

(under construction)

Pasak Chonlasit DamChao Phraya Dam

(Barrage)

Rama VI Barrage

Wang River

Yom River

Bang Pakong River

Chao Phraya River

Tha Chin River

The Gulf of Thailand

Legend

River

Canal (Khlong, K.)

Reservoir

Barrage

Pumping Station

Bathymetry 100 x 100

mSuvarnabhumi

International Airport

K.Prawat Buri Rom

K.Samrong

K.Chai TalaeK.Phra-Ong Chao

Chaiyanuchit

K.1

K.2

K.8

K.13

K.13

K.14

K.15

K.16

K.16

K.17

K.15

K.14

P22

P23

P24

K.DanK.Lat Krabang

K.Bang Pla

K.Suvarnabhumi

K.Charoen Rad

K.Omm Bangkok Noi

K.Bangkok Yai

Short Cut

(Barrage)

P15

K.Mae Nam Nok P18

K.14

Bangkok

Ayutthaya

Nakhon Sawan

(C.2)

P25

P26

P27

P28

K.Khun Ratchapinit

Bangkok Flood Model

1111

2222

3333

Flood map (1995 Flood with CC impact)

อยธุยา

ปทมุธานี

นนทบรุ ี กทม

นครปฐม

สมทุรสาคร สมทุรปราการ สมทุรปราการ

กรงุเทพฯ

55,432

45,945

12,302

140

21,671

9,726

2,012

1,145

13

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Indirect Impact

Direct Impact

Damaged costs (Million Bahts)

ภาคอุตสาหกรรม

ภาคประชากรภาคธุรกิจ

Indirect

Direct

ประปาและสุขาภิบาล

สาธารณสุขพลงังาน

ความเสียหาย ทางตรง ทางออ้ม

ภาคประชากร 55,432 140

ภาคธุรกิจ 45,945 21,671

ภาคอุตสาหกรรม 12,302 9,726

สาธารณสุข 2,012

พลงังาน 1,145

ประปาและสุขาภิบาล 13

รวม 113,679 34,707 รวมทั(งหมด 148,386

Monsoon(12 เดือน)

ENSO(2~ 5 ปี)

Climate variability

MJO (~ 1-2 เดอืน)

Dipole Mode (~ 3 ปี ) STORM(1

ปี)

Will Thailand be flooded in 2012 ?

Time

Uncertainty

Watching & warning

0-72 hrs.

3-10 days

Monthly

Seasonal

Decadal

CC

Uncertainty in Climate forecast

Acceptable range

ดชันี ENSO (JAMSTEC)

Precipitation 2011-2012 (Jamstec)

Sept.-Nov.June-AugustMarch-May

Number of storm during Enso

จํานวนพายพุดัเขา้พื"นที# 3333

พค−−−−กคปีเอลนินโญ ปีลานินญา ปีปกติ

3333 6 6 6 6 4444

กค−−−−กย17 17 17 17 7 87 87 87 8

Number TS affected Thailand

Accumulated rainfall since Jan. 2011(North)

Normal 1995 2006 2011

Accumulated Flood volume (Nakhon Sawan)

1995 2006 2011

Flood volume in the floodplain below Nakhon Sawan

10,000 mil. m3

Nakhon Sawan

Ayutthaya

7 Industrial estates broke down (JETRO)

Limited capacity of the river (RID)

Overflow occurred along the river (RID)

2009 Avg.2011

Rule curve operation for Bhumibol dam

Risk communication

Preliminary flood assessment

1) Do nothing option

2) Detention basin of 2 million Rais (3,000 million cubic meter)

3) 2) plus East flood bypass channel

4) 2) plus East and West flood bypass channels

Case 1)

Inundation area (Rai)

Flood depth Flood area

Total

Case 2)

Inundation area (Rai)

Flood depth Flood area

Total

Case 3)

Inundation area (Rai)

Flood depth Flood area

Total

Case 4)

Inundation area (Rai)

Flood depth Flood area

Total

Case 1) Case 2) Case 3) Case 3)

Immediate plan Long-term plan

Inundation

area(mil.rai)

Lessons learnt & future tasks

� Inflow forecasting to dams� Risk communication� Decision support system

(Data,tools, strategy)� Land-use planning

(4/77 provinces) � Flood risk assessment

(Int. Disaster Risk Management)

Disaster risk manag.

Response (R1)

• Evacuation system• Search & Rescue

Recovery ((((R2222))))

• Damage asses.• Repairment

Prevention & Mitigation ((((P1111))))

• Risk & Vulnerable assessment• Land use planning

Preparedness ((((P2222))))

• Warning system• Evacuation plan• Emergency plan

Disaster

PM

Dep. PM Governor Supp. Units & NGO

1111 2222

3333

4444

5555

6666

7777 8888

10101010

9999

Vulnerable assessment (2P2R)

Start from community level

1) Prevention & Mitigation2) Preparedness

3) Response

4) Recovery

Thank you