the bull market turned 5... is the party over?

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WELCOME TO CABOT’S 25 TH ANNUAL INVESTMENT & WEALTH MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE Your interests and goals always come first.

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President and chief investment officer, Robert Lutts, of Cabot Wealth Management presents a luncheon keynote where he discusses a bull market, four signs of trouble ahead, and Cabot's top three investment themes.

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Page 1: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

WELCOME TO CABOT’S

25TH ANNUAL INVESTMENT & WEALTH MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE

Your interests and goals always come first.

Page 2: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Cabot Wealth Management, Inc.

25th Annual Investment and

Wealth Management Conference

Rob Lutts

President and Chief Investment Officer

September 26, 2014

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Outline

• ECONOMICS

• MARKETS

• RISKS

• STRATEGY

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Global Economic Recovery:

Slow but Steady

Central Bank Intervention:

New Exit Phase Beginning

Great Reallocation Beginning:

Out of fixed income and alternative space to

risk-based asset investing

Key Factors Today

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Energy Innovation: U.S. is Expanding Energy Production Rapidly –

82% over 7 years. Impact – Lower Inflation and interest rates

Driving manufacturing in USA – cost advantage to USA – amazing

positive factor (not well appreciated)

Driving Profits Higher for many U.S. Companies

U.S. Innovation Pace is Expanding: Silent Innovation Revolution – Like Industrial Revolution in 1900s

U.S. Leading World Innovation: Google, Apple, Facebook,

Linked In, Salesforce.com, Illumina, SolarCity, Tesla, Biogen

Unexpected Changes Having Key Impact

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Interest Rate Trends Favorable for Equities:

Bear Market in Bonds Not Far Off

U.S. Manufacturing Costs:

U.S. NOW Competitive

Global Economics Changing:

Capital Investment Accelerating

Deferred Capital Spending:

Indications Trend Accelerating

Equity Valuations Higher, Yet Attractive Today:

P/E Expansion

International Dependency:

Global Cooperation Key – Conflicts Rising

Stocks on Solid Foundation Today

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Core Belief: The “Good” in Man Always

Overcomes the “Evil”

George Bailey – The Bailey Building & LoanMr. Henry F. Potter

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Core Belief: Knowledge Creates Progress and Value

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More information has been produced

in the last 20 years than the previous

5,000.

If the increase of knowledge from the

dawn of history to the 1800s is given a

value of one, then knowledge has

doubled 16 times within the last 10

years.

Today the amount of information and

knowledge in the world is doubling

every 18 months.

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Page 11: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Core Belief: Innovation Leads to Great Value Creation

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Benefits of information technology

can take us a long way!

I believe Internet and IT will have

much larger impact on productivity

than electricity.

Speed of productivity increased dramatically

Page 13: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

“Investment management” is one of the (important) components within “wealth management”

Wealth Management:◦ Investment management◦ Asset allocation (equities, fixed income, international securities,

alternative assets, etc.)

◦ Investment choices within each asset class

◦ Retirement planning

◦ Tax planning

◦ Estate planning

◦ Risk management (planning for catastrophic risks including disability,

death, long-term care, personal liability, personal property)

Core Belief: Wealth Management - Process is Critical

Page 14: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Expect More Growth and a Better Economy in the coming years

Disruption to established industries high – Value Erosion

Opportunities for value creation very high in next decade

U.S. Economy – The Most Resilient, Adaptable, Creative and Innovative Economy on our PlanetWhy? Free Markets, Capital Markets, Legal System, Educational System, Entrepreneurs Who Drive Ideas, Culture of Growth and Progress

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U.S. Economics

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Growth is Slower. Reason:

Debt Levels High Globally?

Page 17: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Consumers Coming Back!

Still Lower than Normal Confidence

Page 18: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Debt Obligations of Households

Now Dramatically Lower

Page 19: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Businesses Now Starting To

Increase Capital Spending

Page 20: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Back To 1995-2000 Levels

Depressed

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Could Inflation Stay Low Longer?

Yes – Time Will Tell

Page 22: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Unimaginable Energy Revolution!

Never Underestimate American

Ingenuity and Innovation

Page 24: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

New Cost

Paradigm in USA

- Very Favorable

Page 25: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

New Baby Boom –

Next Seven Years –

Sharp Increase in

Number of 30 Year

Olds.

Page 26: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Business Efficiency Driving

Corporate Profitability

Higher

Page 27: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Business Loan Demand Strong

and Growing!

Page 28: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

U.S. Economy Growth – Stronger soon

U.S. is Strongest Large Developed Economy on

planet today – U.S. Shines Today

Expect Inflation and Interest rates to remain

lower for a longer period of time - Watch Trends

Corporate Productivity and Profits will continue

to be higher than many expect

Overall: Very Positive U.S. Economic Situation

Economic Summary

Page 29: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Markets

Page 30: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Markets Are Very Healthy Today

Significant Upside over the coming 12 -24 months

Today Entering Expansion Phase Cycle

Earnings Solid and Growing

Markup In Valuations Phase coming

Monetary, Earnings, Valuations and Psychology all Positive

Equity Markets Today

Page 31: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

14 Year Trading Range 1999 – 2013

Now Ended – BREAKOUT Positive

Page 32: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Markets Have Upward Bias –

2013 Breakout – Very Positive

Page 33: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Cycle Still Positive – Looks To Be

Positive for a Few More Years

Page 34: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

2015 P/E

Ratio Average

Page 35: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Earnings Growth

Very Healthy

Page 36: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

2.0 percent Dividend Yield

Plus 2-3% Buybacks = 5% Total Return

Equities Providing Solid

Total Return

Page 37: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

How High Can Stocks Go?The Bullish Projections By Some Analysts

Earnings Multiple*** Target Upside

2014 $119.50 18.5 X 2,211 11%

2015 $130.00 18.5 X 2,405 20%

As of 9/6/14 SP 500 is 1995

*** Between 1-3 % inflation Ave. P/E is 19X

Page 38: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?
Page 39: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Long-Term

US Interest Rates

1800 - 2014

1800 7.1% 1900 3.9% 2000 5.6%

1810 6.0% 1910 4.0% 2010 4.9%

1820 6.0% 1920 5.3% 2014 3.4%

1830 5.1% 1930 4.3%

1840 5.3% 1940 2.8%

1850 5.4% 1950 3.0%

1860 5.8% 1960 4.1%

1870 5.3% 1970 8.0%

1880 4.0% 1980 11.5%

1890 3.9% 1990 7.9%

The 200-year Average = 5.2%

Page 40: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

30 Year Treas. Bond

3.2% 9/9/14

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EEM Discount: 25-35%

Page 44: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Growing Markets: India / Africa

Retail & Healthcare

Travel and Transportation (Auto)

Banks

Insurance & Education

Internet & Advertising

Infrastructure

India – New Leadership may help drive growth higher – much room to improve

Africa – Much room for improvement – those risk takers /high reward

Page 45: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Cape Town, Africa

Rob Lutts Feb, 2014 Attending

Indaba Mining Conference Tabletop Mountain, 4000 ft.

peak within 15 minutes of

downtown Cape Town

Page 46: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Summary

- US Stocks Overweight

- Foreign Stocks - Developed Markets Neutral

- Foreign Stocks - Emerging Markets/Frontier Markets Neutral/ Over

- Domestic and Foreign Bonds Underweight

- Precious Metals Underweight

- REITS Neutral

- Alternative Assets Neutral

Page 47: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Risks

Page 48: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Global – Geopolitical – Wars, Conflicts

Central Bank Error – Debts still large in Governments

Interest Rate Shock – Inflation Trend

Currency Devaluation – Money Printing is Inflationary

Protectionism – China, Russia – Trading Barriers –

Hostile to Trade

Key Risk Factors Today

Page 49: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Fed Intervention: Delaying Inflation

Page 50: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

U.S. Government Spending Gap

Closing – Washington Gridlock –

Positive ST – LT Trend problematic

Page 51: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

15%6%

Government Debt – A potential

disaster if rates rise dramatically –

could grow deficits quickly

Page 52: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Source: BloombergNOTE: The S&P 500 Index is a widely recognized, unmanaged Index of common stock prices.

“Normal” Market Volatility:

3 Corrections per year > 5%

1 Correction per year > 10%

1 Correction every 3+ years > 20%

Page 53: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

IPO Market – Starting to Heat Up (Alibaba)

Secondary Issue Market Strengthening as well

Investors Appetite for Risk Products is building

Equity Flow of Funds Positive now – but still modest

Client Risk Indicator - moderate

Signs of Risk Building

Page 54: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Solar Power Energy:

Residential and Commercial solar now at critical

cost level that is driving growth

Health Diagnostic Innovation:

Biotechnology and Genomic Breakthroughs

Transportation:

Electric Vehicles

Cabot’s Top Three Growth Themes

“Innovation is the specific instrument of entrepreneurship...the act that

endows resources with a new capacity to create wealth.”

- Peter F. Drucker

Page 55: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Threefold Increase in Three Years!

Economics of Solar are

Driving Growth Now

Page 56: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Medicine now entering

dramatic phase of change in

next ten years – invest today

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The Electric Vehicle Industry - Innovation

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Strategy

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Shorter Term: 1-2 years

Very Positive on Economy and Equities

Mid Term: 2-4 years

Yes …We See Troubles Brewing… New Bubbles in Economy.

Eventually valuations will become excessive.

Long Term – Coming Decade:

U.S. is well positioned to benefit from innovation

Is Five-Year Bull Market Over?

Page 62: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Economy in U.S. and Globally will be much stronger

Inflation will be accelerating and will be viewed as a concern

Interest Rates will be rising steadily

Federal Reserves and Central Banks will have substantially reduced

their stimulus programs

Valuations bubbles will be more evident – stock prices (P/Es at upper

range levels), real estate or other asset classes unknown today.

You Will Feel Better About Our Economy

What Trouble Will Look Like In a Few Years

Page 63: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Cycle Factors:

Signs of Investor Risk Taking is Building

Central Banks - Soon Raising Rates 10 months?

Equity Valuations Higher Today

Economy Is Closer to “Blue Sky” Today

Geopolitical Issues: Middle East - Conflict, Russia

(Ukraine), China (Protectionism)

Four Signs of Trouble Building:

Page 64: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Diversify

Find a mix that makes sense for you based on risk

tolerance, goals, short/long-term income needs.

- US Stocks Overweight

- Foreign Stocks - Developed Markets Neutral

- Foreign Stocks - Emerging Markets/Frontier Markets Neutral/ Over

- Domestic and Foreign Bonds Underweight

- Precious Metals Underweight

- REITS Neutral

- Alternative Assets Neutral

Page 65: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Expect More Growth and a Better Economy in the coming years

Disruption to established industries high – Value Erosion

Opportunities for value creation very high in next decade

U.S. Economy – The Most Resilient, Adaptable, Creative and Innovative Economy on our Planet

Page 66: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

QUESTIONS

Thank you for joining us today.

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Page 68: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

State of Cabot

Cabot’s 31th Year – Great Opportunities Ahead

Cabot Technology Platform Expanding – Best Practices

Digital Phone System - Thinking Phones – Always Available

Software Integration with Schwab – Salesforce.com and Custodians

Hosted Networks – Cloud Computing

Hardware Upgrades – Security

Backup Generator Installed – All Tested

Green Energy Efficiency Efforts – Roof Solar Project (216 Essex and 30 Federal)

Staff Education – High Investment – Expanding

Conferences, Seminars, World Travel

Continue to Seek To Upgrade our Skills and Abilities

Page 69: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Core Belief: The “Good” in Man Always

Overcomes the “Evil”

Page 70: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Core Belief: Knowledge Creates Progress and Value

Page 71: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

Core Belief: Innovation Leads to Great Value Creation

Page 72: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

“Investment management” is one of the (important) components within “wealth management”

Wealth Management:◦ Investment management◦ Asset allocation (equities, fixed income, international securities,

alternative assets, etc.)

◦ Investment choices within each asset class

◦ Retirement planning

◦ Tax planning

◦ Estate planning

◦ Risk management (planning for catastrophic risks including disability,

death, long-term care, personal liability, personal property)

Core Belief: Wealth Management - Process is Critical

Page 73: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?

State of Cabot

Cabot Investment Management

Equity Research – Team Effort

Cabot’s knowledge and Use of New ETFs Expanding/Equity Sectors

Fixed Income – Use of New Fixed-Income products expanding

Wealth Management Team – Best Practices

Seminars and further education

Advanced Skills– Taxes, Estate Planning and Insurance work

Staff

Culture of emphasizing education and growth

Page 74: The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?