The Causes and Consequences of the October War

Great Powers in the Middle EastGalen JacksonApril 22, 2014

Agenda

• Briefly wrap up the Israeli nuclear program• The War of Attrition and the Rogers Plan • The Jordan Crisis• The Road to War• Kissinger and the Disengagement Agreements• Summary

The NPT Debate

“Israel’s Bargain with the Bomb”

Significance of the Israeli Bomb

• October 1973

• Nonproliferation efforts in the Middle East/worldwide today (Iran)

• Egyptian-Israeli peace? U.S.-Israeli relations?

The Aftermath of the June 1967 War

• UN Resolution 242 and the Jarring Mission

• Egyptian armed forces completely destroyed

• The Allon Plan

• Stalemate

Nasser’s Strategy: Enter the Russians

Soviet Goals in the Middle East

• Nurture Egyptian dependence/expand influence with Cairo

• Naval facilities

• Avoid another war but regain lost prestige

• Détente? “Controlled tension?”

Ups and Downs in U.S.-Israeli Relations

• Beginning of a major military relationship

• Divergence on political issues—Rusk’s Sept. 1968 Seven Point Plan (territorial disagreement)

• Israel content to wait it out/divisions within Israeli leadership on visions for peace

To the War of Attrition

The Superpowers and the Diplomatic Impasse

• Nixon’s inconsistent views on the Arab-Israeli conflict

• Reflected in the split between State and Kissinger

• Rogers gets the Middle East

• U.S.-Soviet negotiations: a “test” for the USSR

• The Failure of the Rogers Plan in Dec. 1969

• The End of Joint Diplomacy

Israel’s Escalation

Nasser in Moscow

Operation Kavkaz

• Starts to turn the tide—by April penetration bombing is called off

• Soviet missile crews/combat pilots directly engaged

• Washington refuses to back Israel, though Nixon does promise to quietly replace losses

• Costs to both sides becoming heavy/situation getting out of control by the summer

“Stop Shooting, Start Talking”

Black September

Significance of the Jordan Crisis

• Rogers is undermined • The PLO is expelled to Lebanon • Hussein’s position in Jordan is solidified but at the

cost of his position in the Arab world• U.S.-Soviet Middle East relations deteriorate

further• Nasser’s last act as the leader of Egypt• Rise of Hafez al-Asad in Syria• “Standstill diplomacy”

Enter Anwar Sadat

The Gromyko Plan

Détente, “Standstill Diplomacy,” and Sadat’s “Violent Shock”

Sadat’s Strategy

San Clemente

The October War

The October War

• Intelligence failure• Egypt’s brilliant strategy• The American and Soviet airlifts—dispute about Israel’s

nuclear maneuvers • The Arab oil embargo• Sketch of military developments—Israel turns the tide

with Sharon’s crossing• Kissinger in Moscow• UN Resolution 338• The Oct. 24-25 nuclear alert

Crossing the Canal

The Conflict Transformed

Shuttle Diplomacy and Henry Kissinger

• Geneva Conference (Dec. 1973)

• Sinai I (January 1974)

• End of the embargo (March 1974)

• “The Shuttle” (May 1974): “Super K”

• Nixon’s resignation (Aug. 9)

New President, Same Problem

The Rabat Arab Summit

Reassessment (March 1975)

• Ford wants some quid pro quo

• Kissinger’s Failed March Shuttle: “The magic is gone.”

• Debating a comprehensive solution—linkage

Domestic Pushback

The Road to Sinai II

The Second Egyptian-Israeli Disengagement Agreement

• Limited Israeli withdrawal behind the Giddi and Mitla Passes, return of the Sinai oil fields

• DMZs, American civilian monitors• American commitments: PLO pledge,

coordination of strategy pledge, Geneva Conference procedures pledge, Golan Heights pledge (significant during the 1990s)

• $ and weapons for Israel ($2 billion and sophisticated equipment like Lance missiles)

Sinai II

The End of Step-by-Step Diplomacy

• Had run its course

• 1976 an election year, no progress

• Carter Administration opts for an overall approach

Summing Up

• Amimut: Significant for Camp David?• Moscow and Washington cannot work it out• From Nasser to Sadat• Military option as the Arabs’ last resort• October War breaks the freeze• Step-by-step diplomacy—a partial solution• For Thursday: To Camp David

Questions?

Thank You!