the design of sustainable energy systems ...symbio-newsreport.jpn.org/files/upload/report/...brief...

THE DESIGN OF SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS

Graduate School of Energy Science

Associate Professor Ben McLellan

KyotoUniversity

Energy systems

Essential to society and the economy Often mismatched between source and use Distributed uses, but often centralised

generation Not just electricity, but that’s the focus here

Sustainability

サステナビリティ（持続可能性）

ＤｅｓａｒｒｏｌｌｏＤｕｒａｂｌｅ／Ｓｏｓｔｅｎｉｂｌｅ

устойчивость

Sustainable Development is…

“Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”

Ref: Brundtland, 1987

“Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”

持続可能な開発 = じぞくかのうなかいはつ

Sustainability frameworks - I

Economic

Social

Environmental

社会

経済

環境

Triple Bottom Line = トリプルボトムライン

Sustainability frameworks - II

Economic

Social

Natural

Manufactured

Human

Five Capitals = 五つの資本製造された資本

人間資本

自然資本

金融資本

社会資本

A dynamic balance

SD

Economic

Natural

HumanSocial

Manufact-ured

Sustainable Development

Positive environmental and social legacy

Positive economic development within environmental limits

Higher quality of life for all members of societyImproved environmental condition

Intr

agen

erat

iona

lEqu

ity

世代

内の

公平

世代間の公平 / Intergenerational Equity

All sustainability decisions are a balancing act…

EconomyEnergy security

Project Cycle

Strategies and Planning

Design

Decommissioning

Concept

Construction

Feasibility

Fuel Extraction

Transmission / DistributionGeneration Use

The project-production cycle

Sustainability?

Potential for impact

0%

100%

Project Stages

Engineering Definition

Ability to Impact/EffectChange

Sustainability considered about here (in typical design)

Some sustainability issues

Fuel Extraction



Fuel Extraction


• Location of fuel extraction• Extraction environmental impacts• Local community impacts and benefits• Local economic benefits

• Coal – fugitive methane and dust emissions• Natural gas – fugitive methane• Oil – oil spills / contamination• Uranium – radiotoxic and chemical leakage• Biomass – deforestation• PV / Wind – materials and energy intensity in production


Fuel Extraction


• Emissions (operational and emergency)• Local employment• Contribution to social quality of life• Economic boost• Water usage and quality impacts

• Coal – dust, CO2, acidifying compounds, heavy metals• Natural gas – NOx acidifying and smog contributions• Oil – CO2, oil spills / contamination, acidifying compounds• Uranium – radiotoxic leakage, heated water• Biomass – CO2, acidifying compounds, ash• Wind – low frequency noise, bird kills


Fuel Extraction


• Land usage or rental• Potential (but largely disproven) impacts of electromagnetic fields


Fuel Extraction


• Efficiency• Economic output ability• Quality of life (health, service availability)

• Electricity – clean source of energy, risk of electrification• Natural gas – NOx acidifying and smog contributions• Oil – CO2, acidifying compounds

Natural resources flow

Natural environment

Human environment(people and society, community and

private infrastructure)

Ecological systems

Geological systems

“Sustainability Space” & “Carrying Capacity”

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Impa

ct -

Wat

er (M

L), E

nerg

y (M

J)

Distance, TimeLegislative ConstraintEnvironmental ConstraintEconomic ConstraintTechnical Constraint

Energy systems SD issues

Private / government infrastructure Public good / essential service Generator perspective vs consumer perspective Economic driver Direct and indirect environmental impacts Life cycle considerations important Carrying capacity

Brief comparison of energy systems

Selected indicators

Natural resource usage Emissions Economic indicators

Natural resource usage

1 100 10,000 1,000,000

Uranium

Coal

Natural Gas

Oil

Tonnes of fuel to operate a 1GW plant for one year

UsedExtracted

22

Non-fuel materials usage

Demand ratio: Replacement of 2000GW over next 10 years Required materials as % of 2008 production

Demand ratios: 2008 production

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Coal Nuclear(PWR)

PV Wind Hydro

Perc

enta

ge o

f 200

8 Pr

oduc

tion

(%)

CadmiumCFRPChromiumCobaltCopperGalliumIndiumManganeseMolybdenumNickelNeodymiumSilverUraniumTelluriumVanadiumYtterbiumZirconium

Neodymium

Indium

Gallium

Demand ratios: 2008 production

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

Coal Nuclear(PWR)

PV Wind Hydro

Perc

enta

ge o

f 200

8 Pr

oduc

tion

(%) Cadmium

CFRPChromiumCobaltCopperGalliumIndiumManganeseMolybdenumNickelNeodymiumSilverUraniumTelluriumVanadiumYtterbiumZirconium

after Ashby et al. 2011

Water usage for energy

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0El

ectr

icity

(m3 /M

Wh)

Emissions

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Em

issi

ons

(g C

O2

/ kW

h)

ConstructionFuel

After: http://www.nmm.jx-group.co.jp/english/sustainability/theme/climate-change/index.html

Estimated levelised cost - 2016

050

100150200250300350

2009

US$

/ M

Wh

EIA, 2009

Conclusions

Key messages

Sustainable energy systems require:1. Consideration of life cycle impacts on all “five

capitals”2. Understanding of the constraints that limit system

growth and allowable impacts3. Weighing-up and trading-off alternative impacts and

benefits4. Social acceptance can be crucial – social impacts

are critical

Further informationDr Ben McLellanAssociate ProfessorGraduate School of Energy ScienceKyoto University

Telephone +81 (0)75 753 9173Email [email protected]

Extra slides

Useful references

McLellan, B.C., Q. Zhang, et al. (2012). "Resilience, Sustainability and Risk Management: A Focus on Energy." Challenges 3(2): 153-182.

McLellan, B. C. and G. D. Corder (2012). "Risk reduction through early assessment and integration of sustainability in design in the minerals industry." Journal of Cleaner Production (article in press).

Resilience

During natural disasters energy systems must be…

1. Continuous2. Robust3. Independent4. Controllable5. Non-hazardous6. Matched to demand

McLellan, Zhang et al. 2012

Intergenerational Equity

Future generations have the right to quality of life

Implications for – land use, natural resource depletion… energy...

Legacy issues

世代間の公平＝せだいかいのこうへい

Intragenerational Equity

Bridging economic and quality of life gaps without destroying the environment

The challenge of energy systems in rapidly developing countries in the face of climate change constraints

世代内の公平＝せだいないのこうへい

The “Balance Sheet”

‐5 ‐4 ‐3 ‐2 ‐1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Natural

Social

Human

Manufactured

Financial

Impact

Standard outcomes from business‐as‐usual approaches

‐5 ‐4 ‐3 ‐2 ‐1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Natural

Social

Human

Manufactured

Financial

Impact

Improved outcomes from application of SD principles

No change

Positive change

Negative change

McLellan and Corder, 2012

Global electricity production and associated water consumption (2005)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Electricity production(TWh)

Water consumption(BCM)

Wind and solarHydro and GeothermalNuclearBiomassGasOilCoal

BCM = billion m3

Range of emissions values

-

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

Hard co

al

Hard co

al with

CCS

Lignite

Lignite

with

CCS

Natural ga

s to e

nerg

yOil t

o energ

y

Nuclear to

energy

Biomas

s to e

nergy

PV solar

to ene

rgy

Therm

osolar to

energ

y

Geotherm

al to en

ergy

Wind

onshore

to ene

rgy

Wind

offshore

to ene

rgy

Hydro

to en

ergy

t-CO

2eq/

MW

h

EEA, 2009

Levelised cost predictions

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