the dry cargo markets – dry bulk and containers – sector...

DNV GL © 2014

Confidential

2016-05-10 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER DNV GL © 2014

Confidential

Jan-Olaf Probst, Director Business Development – Executive Vice President

MARITIME

The Dry cargo Markets – Dry Bulk and Containers – Sector Review and Outlook 干货市场 - 干散货和集装箱 - 行业回顾与展望

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Shanghai – 10th May 2016

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2016-05-10

Content

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Market trend Container shipping freight rate

Container fleet and sea borne trade development

Consolidation at the container market Merger of companies

Forming of new container alliance’s

Bigger, bolder better? Where are the limits for Container Ships?

Where are harbor limitations?

2x10.000 = 20.000?

Conclusion

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2016-05-10

Content

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2x10.000 = 20.000?

Conclusion

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2016-05-10

The container shipping freight rates have declined since 2009

4 Source: Clarksons, Bloomberg

The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) represent the freight rate for export container from Shanghai

The SCFI gives a clear trend for the global container freight rates

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Container Ship - Fleet development

From end 2010 to end 2015 the container fleet development had been:

increase of 311 vessels

increase of 5.7 mTEU capacity

this would be equal to 311 vessels with a capacity of each 18.300 TEU

A trend of larger but reduced number of vessel could be detected at all major liner

5 Source: HIS Fairplay

Yearly Containership Fleet [vessels] Yearly Containership Fleet [mTEU] 5.2185.1015.0595.0885.0294.907

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010

20

30

10

25

15

5

0

15,3

2010

14,1

2015

19,8

2014

18,3

+6,4%

+8,7%

+8,5% +6,2%

2013 2012 2011

16,3

+5,6%

17,2

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Containerships – Idle fleet/lay-ups

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Source: Alphaliner

0,6

1,4

0,4

0,2

0,0

1,2

1,0

0,8

2013 Jan

2014 Jan

2015 Jan

2016 Jan

Idle Fleet [number of vessels] Idle Fleet [mio TEU]

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2016 Jan

2014 Jan

2015 Jan

2013 Jan

3-7,5k TEU >7,5k TEU <3k TEU

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Container Ship - Seaborne trade development

The container trade volume has been increased only by 2% in 2015

The forecast of 2016 with a container trade volume of plus 4% is to optimistic and a positive value in 2016 would be beneficial for the container market

The cargo volume on both legs (westbound/eastbound) are fare not in balance

Large amount of empty container on one trade, which could not be charged

Larger vessels could compensate this effect as well as seasonal deviation

7 Source: IHS Fairplay

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2015 2013 2011 2009 2007

4% 5% 2%

2005

4% 5%

Other North-South

Non-Mainlane East-West Transatlantic (EU-US)

Far East-Europe Transpacific (FE-US)

Containerized cargo volumes [mio TEU]

0 5 10 15 20

Transatlantic wb

Transatlantic eb

Far East - Europe wb

Far East - Europe eb

Transpacific wb

Transpacific eb 7%

-3%

10% 2015 2016

2014

Estimated global container trade [mioTEU]

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Content

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2x10.000 = 20.000?

Conclusion

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The 30 liner companies world wide

9 Source: Alphaliner

The first five (5) companies hold a market share of close to 49%

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New ranking of present top 17-20 liner companies – 1/3

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New ranking of present top 17-20 liner companies – 2/3

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New ranking of present top 17-20 liner companies – 3/3 Merger of HALO + UASC not considered

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In less than 18 month three liner companies will/has disappear from the market

Global Container Shipping Companies in TEU capacity

Capacity in T-TEU

Based on April 2016 including delivered vessels

Outstanding deliveries not included

Own and charter tonnage

Source: citi and Alphaliner

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Illustration of liner alliances changes due to merger activities Based on Far East – Europe trade

+?

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?

Source: citi and Alphaliner

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Illustration of TEU capacity changes due to merger activities A Based on Far East – Europe trade

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Content

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2x10.000 = 20.000?

Conclusion

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2016-05-10

19.870 TEU (Alphaliner)

Different nominal container capacity of current world largest Container Vessels with similar principal dimensions

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19.224 TEU 19.100 TEU 18.270 TEU

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Layout of 18.000++TEU Container Vessels

Four (4), five (5) or six (6) 40´bays behind the funnel

Twenty-four (24) 40´bays in total

Number of 40’ bays forward of the deck house:

8x 40’ in operation

7x 40’ in production

6x 40’ on order

6x 40’ calculated by DNV GL

Twin-Island design

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Vessel Deployment Changes in 2015

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Source: Alphaliner

-500 100 300 500 700 -700 -300 -100 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600

Africa related

ME/ISC related

Europe - FE

FE to N. America

EUR to N. America

Oceania related

Others

Latin America related

idle

Intra Europe

Intra FE

10.000-20.000 7500-9999 5100-7499 4000-5099 3000-3999 2000-2999 1000-1999

Vessel deployment changes in 2015 [x 1,000 TEU]

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Number of vessels larger than 13.300 TEU calling at each port Year 2015

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Scource: Alphaliner

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Gantry crane facilities

Port Outreach (m)

SWL (t)

Number of crane

Delivered month-year

Evergreen Kaohsiung 65 65 4 11-14

Evergreen Kaohsiung 65 65 2 02-15

Evergreen Kaohsiung 63 50/65 3 12-15

Evergreen Los Angeles 63 50 3 02-15

LBCT Long Beach 69 65 8 03-14

LBCT Long Beach 69 65 8 03-19

Port of Miami 68 65 4 06-14

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What does the development of ship sizes mean for a terminal? What does that mean for the hinterland?

Example for a 19.000 TEU Container Ship with 8.800/14.250 TEU moves

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Vessel size Number of TEU

per call (average)

Total TEU moves annual based on

vessel

Total TEU moves annual based on

terminal 8,600 TEU vessel 4.000 208.000 337,000

14,000 TEU vessel 6.500 325.000 526,500

19,000 TEU vessel 8.800 440.000 712,800

Carrier Number of TEU per carrier TEU / carrier Number of carrier

(approximately)

Feeder Vessel 4.795 800 6

Train 4.735 90 53

In-Land Water Vessel 290 96 3

Truck 4.225 1,6 2.640

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2 x 10.000 TEU < 1 x 20.000 TEU?

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10.000 TEU

20.000 TEU

Size Price (USD) Main Engine (kW ) 10.000 TEU 89.000.000 36.000 20.000 TEU 145.000.000 51.000

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2 x 10.000 TEU < 1 x 20.000 TEU? Are we talking about overcapacity?

Transportation cost of a 20’ container (TEU) of 1000 nautical miles

Main parameter for the calculation:

Same total cargo carry capacity in the year

CAPEX

OPEX:

Bunker + lube oil + auxiliary energy

Dry docking + maintenance + spares

Crewing + provision + freshwater + else

Insurance

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Vessels 2 x 10.000 TEU 20.000 TEU Utilisation 100 % 77%

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SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER

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The Dry cargo Markets – Dry Bulk and Containers – Sector Review and Outlook 干货市场 - 干散货和集装箱 - 行业回顾与展望

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Jan-Olaf Probst, Executive Vice President [email protected] Mobile: +49-172 419 2102

the dry cargo markets – dry bulk and containers – sector...

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