the dynamics of ict r&d in china - europais.jrc.ec.europa.eu/.../4grumbach1102bxl-short.pdf ·...
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The Dynamics of ICT R&D in China
Stéphane Grumbach INRIA
Asian rise in ICT R&D Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), JRC Bruxelles, Feb. 16-17 2010
ICT in China: mobile and online
– 450 millions online people • (60% under 30) • 19% growth in 2010
– 800 millions mobile • 300 millions mobile surfer • 30% growth
– Very active online world
China leading in terms of usage penetration of web 2.0 applications
(McKinsey) S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 2
ICT in China: the industry
New ICT giants with strong export capacity
– Lenovo • Spin-off of the Chinese Academy of Sciences • Bought IBM PC’s for 1.75 Billions US$ 2005 • #1 PC market in Asia-Pacific region
– ZTE and Huawei • Telecom equipment • Global research network
– China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom • Telecom operators
– Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba • Internet
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ICT in China: the research
1. National Supercomputing Center in Tianjin, China Tianhe-1A - NUDT, Intel X5670, 186368 processors 2566 Tflops
2. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USA, Cray Inc., 224162 processors, 1759 Tflops
3. National Supercomputing Centre in Shenzhen (NSCS) Nebulae - Dawning, Intel X5650, 120640 processors, 1271 Tflops
4. GSIC Center, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan TSUBAME 2.0 - HP Xeon 6C X5670, 73278 processors 1192 Tflops
5. DOE/SC/LBNL/NERSC USA Hopper - Cray XE6 153408 processors 1054 Tflops
6. CEA, France Tera-100 – Bull 138368 processors 1050 Tflops
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Chinese systems: 2 in the TOP5
42 in the TOP500
Nov 2010
Human resources 20 millions students --- 5% tertiary education (USA 37%) New promotion: 15% of an age group
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Chinese students abroad Foreign recipients of U.S. S&E doctorates, by country 1985–2005
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Source www.nsf.gov/statistics
189.346 recipients
Global R&D expenditure
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Source: OECD-MSTI’09
Expected R&D expenditure 2011 China: 150 billion US$ Japan: 150 billion US$ USA: 400 billion US$
2008
ICT in China: a research priority
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Source: MOST (2009b) Annual Report of the State Programs of Science and Technology Development
Program 863 for High-tech R&D (2008) Expenditure on R&D
China’s high-tech industries
Publications
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SCI: 6% of world total 15% yearly growth #5 (behind US,JP,GB,DE)
EI: 20% of world total 30% yearly growth #2 (behind US)
Source: 中国科技论文统计结果2009
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Impact and visibility
Strong evolution of the citation rate of publications – 13th position (18th in 2003) – Progression of citations: 28% in 2006 – Publications SCI 1997-2006
• 40% of articles never cited • 225 articles cited more than 100 times (129 in 2005)
Impact Reasonable in new materials, mathematics, chemistry, physics In ICT:
– 20,995 SCI papers (1999-2009) – 8.3% of world total – 1.91 citation per paper (world average 3.25)
S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 Source: 中国科技论文统计结果2009
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Expenditure by domain Weak fundamental research: 5% OECD average: 20% Still a logic
of developing country Technological catch up But strong link with fundamental research abroad
S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 Source: MOST
IPR: triadic patents
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Global share 1995 - 2005
Source: OECD-STI’08
Proprietary standards Priority of the 12th 5 year plan (2011-2015)
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Ref. Hervé Cayla, Gailong
DMB-T
China’s national standard for Digital Terrestrial TV
China BroadBand Wireless IP Standard Working Group, promoter of WAPI, China’s WLAN standard
AVS is China’s standard for Audio & Video (competitor of MPEG-4 AVC)
TD-SCDMA is China’s 3G standard
IGRS is China’s home networking standard
Enhanced Versatile Disk, China’s standard for HD DVD
RFID
China’s national standard for RFID under discussion
China Communications Standard Association
FutURE Forum to prepare China’s upcoming “Beyond
3G” standard
Ministry of Science and Technology
Ministry of Industry and
Information Technology
SCDMA, China’s standard that could compete with Wimax
Internet 2 & IPv6 technologies
GM-U Code, China National Standard for 2D barcodes
SARFT announced China's National Standard for Mobile TV & interactive multimedia services (STiMi & CMMB)
R&D expenditures by performing sector
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Source www.nsf.gov/statistics Industry represented only 45% in 1998
Industrial R&D spending 2008
S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 17 Source: Booz Global Innovation 1000
Circa 1 Trillion US$ For the 1000 top corporations
Few Chinese corporations in R&D 2008 investment in R&D
A dozen Chinese corporations among the top 1000 None in the top 100
PetroChina 818.26 Million Euros, (intensity 0.7%) ZTE (telecom equip.) 450.52 Million Euros, (9.6%) China Petroleum & Chemical China Railway Construction China Coal Energy China Communications Construction BYD Electronic equipment …
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Source: 2009 EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard
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#1 for ICT exports since 2004 High-Tech exports mostly under foreign brands
Source: MOST
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Globalization of R&D 1993: First foreign R&D center (Motorola) 2004: 700 foreign R&D centers 2005: China 1st localization for new R&D centers
ahead of the USA and India
Objectives 1) adapt products to local market 2) technological intelligence 3) global R&D
Attractiveness of China 1) market shares vs. technologies participation in the design of Chinese standards 2) talents 3) costs
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Most R&D labs are in IT
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Figure 1 The industrial distribution of autonomous R&D labs settled by BusinessWeek 1000 MNCs in China(2004)
23%
18%13%5%
7%7%
6%6%
5% 4% 3% 2%1%
Software TelecommunicationsSemiconductors Industrial Equipments and componentsAutomobiles Commodity ChemicalsBiotechnology&Drags Household ElectronicsOther IT Products ChemicalsFood and beverages Industrial ConglomeratesOthers
Concluding remarks
A belief in Science – “Scientific policy” – 2.5% of GDP in R&D by 2020 – World scientific leader by 2050
A test for High-Tech and ICT – Young population – Modernizing country – A tradition of networking
An economic and political strength – Recover its glorious past – Capacity to reform and adapt to changes
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References
UNESCO Science Report 2010 OECD Factbook 2009 OECD Science, Technology and Industry (STI) Scoreboard 2009 OECD Reviews of tertiary education, CHINA, 2009 OECD Reviews of Innovation Policy, CHINA, 2007 http://www.most.gov.cn/eng/statistics/2007/index.htm 中国科技论文统计结果 2009 www.nsf.gov/statistics www.booz.com www.starmass.com
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