the economist 2020-03-11...president, from taking part in an election in the future” was quite a...

Thecontents

[2020-03-11]

EuropeLeadersScienceandtechnologyChinaGraphicdetailUnitedStates

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Putin’sspecialoperation

AconstitutionalploymaykeepVladimirPutininpoweruntil2036

VLADIMIRPUTINlikestosurprise.Evenmore,helikestoconfuse.AsaformerKGBofficer,heiscomfortableoperatinginfogandobfuscation,particularlywhentwistingthelaw—orevenhatchingapoliticalplot.ThisisessentiallywhatMrPutinhasbeendoingforthetwomonthssinceheannouncedconstitutionalchangesdesignedtokeephimselfinpowerafter2024.Thecurrentconstitutionsayshemustleaveofficethen.AsheindicatedonMarch10th,hehasnointentionofdoingso.

Russianscouldbeforgivenforfeelingconfused.OnMarch6thMrPutintoldthemthathewouldnotrepeattheexperienceoftheSovietleaderswhodiedinoffice.“Ilikemyjob,buttoretainthepowerIhave,[Iwouldhave]toagreetosomeschemethatwouldbeunacceptableforthecountryor...destroyit.”Butfourdayslaterhedidtheopposite,tellingtheDuma(parliament)thatheiswillingtoresettheclockonpresidentialterm-limitsandmaystandagainin2024.Twomoresix-yeartermscouldthuskeepMrPutin—ifhestandsandwins

re-election—inthepresidencyuntil2036,whenhewillbe83.

MrPutinhasponderedandprobablyrejectedvariousmethodsofretainingpower:mergingRussiawithBelarusandsopresidingoveranewcountry;presidingoveranempoweredsupremestatecouncil;orbecomingprimeministerinanewparliamentarysystem.Whenconfrontedwithasimilardifficultyin2008,hesimplyswappedjobswithDmitryMedvedev,thenprimeminister.Thistime,heappearstohavechosenthecrudestbutperhapsmostcertainmethod—changingtheconstitutionandremainingpresident.

Hisstatementshavebeenasmurkyastheamendmentstotheconstitution,whichareconfusingandcontradictsomeotherarticles.Hesaidatfirstthattheywouldstrengthenthepowersoftheparliamentandtheregions.Infact,theamendmentsgrantthepresidentnear-absolutepower,furtherreducetheauthorityofelectedmayorsandscraptheprimacyofinternationalnormsoverRussianlaws.Thepower-grabisshroudedinthelanguageofGod,ancestraltraditions,heterosexualfamiliesandsacredvictoryinthesecondworldwar(the75thanniversaryofwhichRussiawillmarkonMay9th).

Yet,forsuchamomentousevent,MrPutin’sgambitperformedbeforetheDuma,lackedpanacheanddrama.Theshowwascontrivedandstale.Inastylisticthrow-backtodeadly-dullCommunistPartycongresses,ValentinaTereshkova,anMPandformerSovietcosmonaut,saidtherewasnopointintryingtoerectcomplicatedpoliticalconstructions.ItwouldbemuchbettertoaskVladimirVladimirovichtostayaspresidentforthegoodofthecountry.

Oncue,theDumaapplauded,andoverwhelminglyvotedfortheamendments.MrPutinisexpectedtosignthemonMarch18th,thesixthanniversaryoftheillegalannexationofCrimea.Takingthefloor,MrPutinlaidoutanextensive,self-servingdefinitionofhisrole.“Thepresidentistheguarantoroftheconstitution,”hesaid,“or,simplyput,theguarantorofthecountry’ssecurity,domesticstabilityand...evolutionarydevelopment.”Evolutionary,because“wehavehadenoughrevolutions.”Heinvokedforeignanddomesticenemies:“Theyarewaitingforustomakeamistakeortoslipup,losingourbearingsor,worsestill,getboggeddownininternaldissent,whichissometimesfanned,fuelledandevenfinancedfromabroad.”

Althoughitwouldbequitewrongsimplytoremovetermlimits,hesaidcasuistically,“liftingrestrictionsagainst...anycitizen,includingthecurrent

president,fromtakingpartinanelectioninthefuture”wasquiteadifferentmatter.Naturally,thechangestotheconstitutionwouldhavetobeapprovedbytheConstitutionalCourt,whichhecontrols,aswellasbytheRussianpeople.

Theirassentisscheduledforanotheranniversary:Lenin’sbirthday,onApril22nd.Therewillbean“all-peoplevote”,whichappearstobeneitherareferendumnoranelection,butratheravaguedisplayofsupportwithnobasisinRussianlaw,probablyinvolvingsometelevisedspectacle.Itspurpose,though,istogiveMrPutin’sployanairofspuriouslegality.Andjustincaseanyonewhodisapprovesofhisschemeshouldthinkofprotesting,Moscow’scityauthoritiespromptlybannedanygatheringofmorethan5,000people,citingthecoronavirusoutbreak,atleastuntilApril10th.

MrPutinofferedsomeconsolationtothemanyRussianswhoaresickandtiredofhim,promising:“Ihavenodoubtthatthedaywillcomewhenthesupreme,presidentialpowerinRussiawillnotbesopersonalised.”Hesaidnothingaboutwhenthatdaymaycome.Itmaynotbewithinhislifetime.

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Leaders

WhyMyanmar’sarmyiswrongtorejectlimitsonitspower[Mar10th2020]





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Generalmyopia

WhyMyanmar’sarmyiswrongtorejectlimitsonitspower

WITHGREATpowercomesnoresponsibilitywhatsoever—atleast,forMyanmar’sarmy.Althoughthecountryisintheoryrunbyaciviliangovernment,thearmy,orTatmadaw,retainscontrolofitsownaffairs.Itstopgeneralappointshisownboss,theministerofdefence.Forgoodmeasure,healsogetstopicktheministersoftheinteriorandofbordersecurity,givinghimcontroloverthepolice,intelligenceservicesandborderguards.Thisdoubtlessirkselectedpoliticians,butthereislittletheycandoaboutit,becausethearmyalsochoosesaquarterofthemembersofthenationalandstateparliaments.Thatisenoughtovetoanyamendmentstotheconstitution,includinganychangestotheseoutlandishrules.OnMarch10th,infact,theTatmadaw’sappointeestorpedoedconstitutionalamendmentsproposedbythegovernmentofAungSanSuuKyi,whichwouldhavegraduallyreduceditsrepresentationinparliament,amongotherthings.

Thatisnosurprise,butitisamistake.TheTatmadawmethodicallyerectedthis

structurefor13yearsbeforeithandedpowertoMissSuuKyi’sNationalLeagueforDemocracy(NLD)in2016.Itishardtoknowexactlywhatthearmy’sintentionwas,sinceitissuchanopaqueandpricklyinstitution.ButthegeneralsseemtohavewantedtomakeMyanmarmoremodernandrespectable.ThatwouldalsoservetoimproverelationswiththeWest,andsoreducetheirdependenceonChina,botheconomicallyanddiplomatically.Theyappeartohavebeendelightedtopalmoffthedifficultjobofrunningthecountry,butwantedtomakesurethattheirexaltedstatus—andpastconduct—wouldnotbequestioned.Theyintendtoretreatevenfurtherfromthebusinessofgovernment,thehighcommandcontinuestoinsist,onceBurmesedemocracyis“mature”.

Thehitchis,thearmy’sstiflinginfluenceispreventingBurmesedemocracyfrommaturing.Instead,theNLDandtheTatmadawarelockedinadestructivecontest,inwhicheachviestoproveitselfmorepatrioticandclosertotheBamarBuddhistmajoritythantheother.SowhenthearmyembarksonapogromagainsttheRohingyas,ahatedMuslimminority,thegovernmentfeelsobligedtopaperoveritscrimesagainsthumanity.AndwhenMissSuuKyideclaresthatnationalreconciliationishergovernment’smaingoal,thearmystirsupconflictswithotherminoritiestoundermineher.InsteadofMissSuuKyihelpingMyanmarandthearmytolookbetter,asthegeneralshadplanned,thearmyismakingMissSuuKyiandMyanmarlookbad.Westerninvestors,inturn,havetakenflight,increasingMyanmar’sdependenceonChina—again,theoppositeofwhattheTatmadawappearstohaveintended.

Itmightstillbepossible,however,toturnthisviciouscycleintoavirtuousone.MissSuuKyi,afterall,hasprovedthatsheisnotanimplacableenemyoftheTatmadaw—evengoingasfarastravellingtoTheHaguetodefenditsindefensibleconductbeforetheInternationalCourtofJustice.Foritspart,theTatmadawpresumablydidnotspendmorethanadecadeengineeringaformofcivilianruleitfindsacceptableonlytosabotageitsowncreation.Bothsidesseemtohaveacceptedthattheyhavetolivewiththeother.Nowtheyneedtofindawaytogetalongbetter.

Amendingtheconstitutiontoprovidemoreofasemblanceofciviliansupremacyoverthearmedforceswouldbeagoodstart.Thearmycouldcedecontrolofthevarioussecurityministries,forexample,orgiveupitsvotingmajorityonthespecialgovernmentcommitteeempoweredtodeclareastateofemergency.Atonelevel,itwouldbemerelyatokengesture:MissSuuKyisurelyknowsthatthearmywouldnothesitatetostageanothercoupifitfelttrulythreatened.But

overtime,thenewrulesmightevolvefrompolitefictionsintoinstitutionalnorms.Moreover,iftheciviliangovernmenthadanycontroloversecurity,thatmightforceit,andtheTatmadaw,tothinkalittlemoredeeplyabouthowtomollifyMyanmar’smanyethnicandreligiousminorities(oratleastavoidanyrepeatsofwhathappenedtotheRohingyas),andthusmakethecountrybothmorepeacefulandmoreunified.Attheveryleast,somesensethatthearmywillnotrunamokmighthelptolurebackWesterninvestors,andthusspeedthecountry’sdevelopmentandrehabilitation.ThealternativeisareversiontothefeudbetweenthearmyanddemocracyactiviststhathasconsumedMyanmarinoneformoranothersincetheTatmadawfirststoppedtheNLDfromtakingpowerbackin1990.Neithersidewantsthat.NordoordinaryBurmese.






Scienceandtechnology

Laserweaponsarealmostreadyforthebattlefield[Mar5th2020]






Militarytechnology

Laserweaponsarealmostreadyforthebattlefield

WHENMARTIANSdescendonEnglandinH.G.Wells’snovel“TheWaroftheWorlds”,publishedin1898,theyincineratetroublesomehumansandlaywastetosuburbantownswithheat-raysthatturnallbeforethemintoa“asmokydanceofluridflames”.Suchraygunshavebeenarecurrentfeatureofscience-fictioneversince.

Despitetheeffortsofmilitarytypes,though,realityhaslaggedfarbehindsci-fi.In1934,tonoavail,Britain’sAirMinistryoffered£1,000toanyonewhocoulduseraysofsomesorttokillasheepatadistanceof180metres.AdecadelateraJapanesedevicethatgeneratedmicrowavesmanagedtosnuffoutarabbitthatwas30metresaway.Butittooktenminutestodoso.Eventheinventionoflasers,in1960,failedtousherintheageofthedirected-energyweapon,asraygunsareknowninthejargon.RonaldReagan’sefforttoweaponiselasersinthe“StarWars”programmeofthe1980swasspectacularlyunsuccessful.

Thistime,however,it’sdifferent,accordingtoKellyHammett,whojoined

America’sAirForceResearchLaboratory27yearsago,andnowrunsitsDirectedEnergyDirectorate.“Formyentirecareer,”hesays,“wehavebeenworkingondirectedenergy.We’refinallyatthepointatwhichwe’regoingtoseesystemsthatwillmakeamoresubstantivedifferenceonthebattlefield.”

Zap!

Iftrue,thatwillchangethecostofwar.Atthemoment,shootinganobjectoutoftheskygenerallymeansfiringsomethingexpensiveatit.Iftheobjectisanenemyplaneorsophisticatedballisticmissile,thatisprobablyworthwhile.ButIsrael,forexample,routinelyexpends$50,000interceptorsonhome-maderocketsthatcostabout$1,000.Disparitieslikethismakeiteasyandaffordabletoattempttooverwhelmdefenceswithmissilesalvosordroneswarms.Lasers,bycontrast,arecheaptofireandneverrunoutofammunition.

Laserscomeinmanyvarieties,buttwo,inparticular,havebeenthesubjectofweaponisation.Thesearesolid-statelasersandchemicallasers.Asolid-statelaserworksbystimulatingtheemergenceofalaserbeamfromacrystalorapieceofglassbypumpingenergyintothatsolid.(Thefirstlaserusedarubyasthecrystalandaflashlampasthepump.)Thepowertodothisisprovidedbyanelectriccurrent.Achemicallaser,meanwhile,drawsitsenergyfromreactionsbetweentwoormoresubstancesandusesthatenergytopumpyetanothersubstancetoemitthebeam.

InthefirstdecadeofthecurrentcenturyAmericacameclosetodevelopingachemical-laserweapon.ThiswasahangoverfromStarWars,amegawattdeviceintendedtodestroyintercontinentalballisticmissilesjustaftertheytookoff.Testsconductedin2009weresuccessful.Butthesystemweighed17tonnes,andwassolargethatitrequiredaBoeing747tocarryit.Also,thepumpingreactioninvolvedchlorine,hydrogenperoxideandpotassiumhydroxide,allofwhicharecorrosive—aswasthesubstancebeingpumped,iodine.Thisisnotanidealmixturetohaveonboardaplane.Havingburnedthrough$5bnover16years,theprogrammewasthereforecancelledin2011.

Today’slaserweaponshave,bycontrast,gonedownthesolid-stateroute.AsThomasKarr,whoheadsthePentagon’sworkondirectedenergy,explains,theyusealasertopumpalaser.Themainlaser’score—theequivalentoftheruby—isdopedwithanelementsuchasniobium,togiveitsuitableproperties.Insteadofaflashlamp,thislaserisstimulatedbyalaser-emittingdiode.

Bypickingtherightcombinationofingredientsforthemainlaser,itsoutputcanbetunedtoanoptimumwavelength—aboutonemicron—thatresultsinanarrow,far-reachingbeamresistanttoabsorptionbywatervapourintheatmosphere.Today’ssolid-statelasersarealsomuchmoreefficientthantheirpredecessors.Athirdoftheelectricitydrivingthemisconvertedintolaserlight,comparedwithjustafewpercentinearliergenerations.Dispensingwithgases,moreover,meanslessplumbingandamorecompactdesign.

Thebreakthroughforsolid-statelaserscamein2014,withthetestingbyAmerica’snavyofonethathadapowerof30kilowatts(kW)—theoutputofanaveragehomeboiler.WhenfittedtoasmallvesselcalledUSSPonceitprovedabletofrythecomponentsandmotorsofnearbydronesandboats.Ponce’scaptainwasthengivenpermissiontouseitforreal,ifheneededto.

Inlightofthissuccessa60kWsystem,similarlyintendedforuse,willbefittedonUSSPreble,adestroyer,laterthisyear.Andanevenmorepotent150kWweaponisundergoingtestsonlargerships.Noraresuchdevicesexclusivelynaval.InFebruarytheAmericanarmysaiditplannedtofielditsfirst“combatrelevant”laser,a50kWweaponthatwouldsitatopStrykerarmouredvehiclesanddefendthemagainstaerialthreats,by2022.

Mirrors,butnosmoke

Militarylasershavealsobenefitedfromprogressinmaterialsscience.Theheat-raysemployedbyWells’sMartiansreliedon“apolishedparabolicmirrorofunknowncomposition”.Theirreal-worldsuccessorssimilarlyusemirrorstocombineandbouncelightwithintheweapon,beforesendingitoutthroughawindowonitswaytoitstarget.Sincelasersconcentratehugeamountsofpowerintosmallareas,thesemirrorshavetobecoatedwithreflectivematerialsthatabsorbaslittleenergyaspossible.Similarly,thecoatingsofthewindowsrequirehigh-transmissionmaterialsthatpermitasmuchenergyaspossibletopass.Bothtypesofcoatinghavecomealonggreatlyinthepast20years,becauseoftheiruseinopticalgyroscopes,whicharefittedwidelyinaeroplanesandships,saysMrKarr.

Anotheradvancehasbeenadaptiveoptics—asetoftechniquesthatusespecialsensorsanddeformablemirrorstocompensate,inreal-time,fordistortionscausedbyEarth’satmosphere(thinkofthetwinklingofstars).Thistechnology,whichenablesmilitarylaserstobeaimedaccurately,waspioneeredinsecret

laboratoriesinthe1980sandthendeclassifiedinthe1990s,totheconsiderabledelightofastronomers,whouseittoadjusttheirtelescopes.LastyeartheAmericanairforce’sStarfireOpticalRangeinNewMexicoapproachedindustrytodevelopanewandpowerfulsodiumlaser(onethatenergisesthesodiumatomsinalayeroftheatmospherecalledthemesosphere,tocreateartificial“guidestars”).Thiswouldrefineadaptiveopticsforbothastronomicalandmilitarypurposes.

Thenextchallengeistosouplasersupstillfurther,sotheycantakeaimatlargemissiles,aswellasthesmallonesthatthePrebleandStrykerweaponswillbeaimedat.Thegoal,accordingtoMrKarr,istoachieve300kWby2022and500kWby2024.Thesewillbedemonstrationdevices,ratherthanbattlefield-ready.But,acenturyandaquarterafterWells’svision,itlooksasthoughtheraygunisatlastareality.■

ThisarticleappearedintheScienceandtechnologysectionoftheprinteditionundertheheadline"Theriseoftheraygun"






China

China’spropagandistsaretrappedbytheirownrhetoric[Mar5th2020]






Chaguan

China’spropagandistsaretrappedbytheirownrhetoric

THEREVIEWSarenotyetin,butitissafetosaythat“ABattleAgainstEpidemic:ChinaCombatingcovid-19in2020”hasthemakingsofabestseller.AprojectoverseenbytheCentralPropagandaDepartmentoftheCommunistPartyofChina,theforthcominghardbackisbilledasatributetoPresidentXiJinping’s“outstandingleadership”inthefightagainstthenovelcoronavirus.WithMrXialreadydubbed“CommanderofthePeople’sWar”againstcovid-19byofficialmedia,itwouldbeaboldpartycommitteeorgovernmentofficethatdoesnotorderacopy.Yetthoseeagertoreserveoneinadvancewillneedpatience,becausethevolumehassuddenlyvanishedfromtheonlinecataloguesofthePeople’sPublishingHouse.Whenthebookreturnsinsomeguise,asitdoubtlesswill,thecontentsmayhavechangedquiteabit.Forpropagandachiefsneedtorethinktheirrhetoricaboutcovid-19,sincetheycannothopetoliveuptoit.

SinceJanuaryhundredsofmillionsofChinesehavespentweeksinlocked-downvillagesandtowns,forbiddentomeetfriendsandfamily.Somehavehadto

home-schoolchildren.Othersarelivingonsavingsuntiltheirworkplacesre-open.Scanningsocialmediafornews,manynormallyapoliticalcitizenshavebeenangeredbyreportsofofficialcover-upsandincompetence,orbyviralsmartphonevideosofsecurityforcesthuggishlyenforcingquarantines.Thesamecitizenshavethenbeenshockedtoseecontroversialreportsdeletedbeforetheireyesbycensors.

Anxioustorallyafrightenedpublic,Chineseleadersdeclaredall-outwaronthedevilvirussomeweeksago.Itwillend,theypromise,with“acompletewin”.Stateandpartynewsoutletshavecastdoctorsandnursesas“white-cladandfearlesswarriors”.Medicskilledbythevirushavebeenhailedasbattlefieldmartyrs.

ThoughChinahasnothingresemblingafreepress,somemoreindependentvoicescanbeheard,whetherbloggersorafewbig-city,commerciallydrivennewsoutletsthatpushthelimitsofwhatmaybereported.TheepidemichasseennotablybraveworkbyCaixin,abusinesspublicationwhosecommercialbackersincludeTencent,atechnologygiant,andwhichissaidtohavehigh-rankingfans,amongthem(itisrumoured)WangQishan,China’svice-presidentandaformeranti-corruptionchief.ThepublicationhassentseveralteamstoWuhan,thecityatthecentreoftheoutbreak.TheyreportedthatofficialshushedupnewsoftestsconductedinDecemberthatfirstdiscoveredthenewvirusandthensuppressedevidencethatitcouldjumpfromhumantohuman.EditorialsinCaixinhavearguedthattransparencyisthekeytowinningpublictrust,becausesuppressingthetruthfuelspanic.

Caixin’sreportshavebeenrepeatedlydeletedbycensors.Forallthat,andabitunexpectedly,itscallstolevelwiththepublicalsoearnpraisefromsomeinthepartypress.Thatmaybebecausegreaterhonestyistheonlywayoutofthetrapcreatedbyearly,hubristicpromisesoftotalvictory.BackonFebruary20th,whenalmostallconfirmedcasesofcovid-19wereinsidethecountry’sborders,theChinaDailyboasted,“WereitnotfortheuniqueinstitutionaladvantagesoftheChinesesystem,theworldmightbebattlingadevastatingpandemic.”Nowthevirushasbeendetectedinmorethan70countries,and—inthepastfewdays—travellershavebeenfoundreturningtoChinawithinfectionspickedupabroad.Thisvirusisgoingtobearoundforalongtime,perhapsforever.SomeonewillhavetobreakthattotheChinesepublic.

HuXijiniseditor-in-chiefoftheGlobalTimes,abombastictabloidunderthe

People’sDaily,theparty’sofficialmouthpiece.MrHunotesthathisownpaper’sreportsexposedinstancesofbunglingbyWuhanofficials.ButheconcedesthatCaixin’s“performanceontheinvestigativefrontreallystoodout”.Caixin’sworkgivesstatemediacausefor“self-reflection”,headds:thegovernmentpress“shouldhaveplayedasupervisingrole”whencity,provincialandnationalhealthofficialsmademistakesatthestartoftheoutbreak.

AskedhowhethinksCaixingotawaywithitslimit-testingreportingduringthiscrisis,MrHudescribesamysteriousprocessbywhichChinesemediaoutletssensethepoliticalcurrentsofthedayandtrytoaligntheirworkwith“whatsocietyneeds”atthatmoment,asheputsit.Enterthecurrentattherighttimeandsuccesscanfollow,heexplains.“Ifsometimesyoumiss,theresultsmightbeverydifferent.”

AprovocateurwhorelishesexplainingtoWesternreportershowwrongtheyare,MrHuissereneaboutthechallengeofadmittingthatvirusoutbreaksmaycontinuelongafterChinaeasesstrictquarantinerules.“Ifweneedtochangestrategy,wecanchangeanytime,”theeditorsays,venturingthattheChinesearepractical,wanttogobacktoworkandliveinacountrywithbetterviruscontrolsthan“high-risk”France,Germany,ItalyorSouthKorea.“Theywanttoberidofthevirus.Butifitcan’tbedefeated,weneedtoacceptthattoo.”

Whenindoubt,lashout

Truetonationalisticform,inrecentdaystheGlobalTimeshasaccusedWesternnationsoffailingtolearnfromChina’sresolutepolicies,astheworldpreparesfora“protractedwar”againstthevirus.Tut-tuttingaboutthecostofhealthcareinAmerica,thetabloidasked,“Ifasuperpowerfailstocontrolcovid-19simplybecausemanypeoplecannotaffordtreatment,thencanthatcountryreallybegreatagain?”

China’stopleadersaremoresubtleabouttheirblame-sharing,butstillatpainstonotethatvirus-controlisnowacollective,globalchallenge.MeetingscientistsonMarch2ndMrXitalkedof“humanity’sbattleagainstdiseases”andofthetasksfacingallmankind.SuchlanguageisnotasstirringasbooksaboutChinasingle-handedlysavingtheworld.ButrightnowthetaskissellingsomethingshortoftotalvictorytoafrightenedChinesepublic,manyofwhomdistrustofficialassurancesaboutpublichealth.Blamingtheworldisagoodstart.■

ThisarticleappearedintheChinasectionoftheprinteditionundertheheadline"Totalincredulity"






Graphicdetail

Politicalprotestshavebecomemorewidespreadandmorefrequent[Mar10th2020]






Dailychart

Politicalprotestshavebecomemorewidespreadandmorefrequent

FORMANYWesterners,thementionofmass-protestmovementsconjuresimagesoflong-hairedyouthdemonstratingagainsttheVietnamwarin1968,orthetopplingoftheBerlinWallin1989.Buttheworldhasexperiencedmorepoliticaluprisingsinthepastfewyearsthaneverbefore.In2019alonetherewereprotestsoneverycontinentandacross114countries—fromHongKongtoHaiti,BoliviatoBritain.

Suchunrestispartofagrowingtrend,accordingtoanewreportbyresearchersattheCenterofStrategicandInternationalStudies(CSIS),aWashington-basedthink-tank.UsingdatafromtheGlobalDatabaseofEvents,Language,andTone—arepositoryofnewsarticles—SamuelBrannen,ChristianHaigandKatherineSchmidtfoundthatthenumberofmassprotestsgloballyhasincreasedby11.5%peryear,onaverage,since2009.(Massprotestsaredefinedasciviliananti-governmentprotests,regardlessofsize,andexcludingriotsandprotestsagainstnon-stateentities).Evenafteradjustingforpopulationgrowth,theauthors

reckonthatthenumberofdemonstratorswhohavetakentothestreetsinrecentyearsexceedsthatofeithertheanti-VietnamWarmovementortheCivilRightsmovement.

Recentprotests,despitetheirlargenumbers,seemmoredisparatethanthoseofthepast.Manysharesimilarthemes—includingsloweconomicgrowth,climatechangeandgovernmentcorruption—butaresparkedbylocalevents.InHongKongproteststriggeredbyabillallowingcriminalsuspectstobeextraditedtomainlandChinaspiralledintoabroaderstruggleagainsttheChinesegovernment’sinfluence.InChiledemonstrationsfuelledbyamodestriseinsubwayfaresbroadenedintoangeraboutinequalityandthecostofliving.Resultshavebeenmixed.Somehavebroughtaboutchangesingovernment;othershavebeenmetwithbrutalrepression.

Smartphonesandsocialmediahaverevolutionisedthewayinwhichdemonstrationsareorganised,advertisedandsustained.(Manygovernments,includingthoseofIndia,Pakistan,SyriaandTurkey,haverespondedtounrestbyshuttingdowntheinternet.)Suchtoolsalsoaidthespreadofinformation,bothrealandfake,deepeningexistingpoliticaldivides.Noneoftheseconditionsarelikelytochangesoon.Massprotestshaveexistedforcenturies.Buttheirincreasedfrequencymaybeheretostay.





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Nowheretogo

InMichigan,JoeBidendealsalethalblowtoBernieSanders

IN1987,WHILEhewasmayorofBurlington,Vermont,BernieSandersreleasedanalbumoffolksongsandpoemstitled“WeShallOvercome”.TherecordincludedanthemsevocativeofadeepAmericanasuchas“ThisLandIsYourLand”,butalsoCivilRightsballadslike“OhFreedom”.ThealbumbecamepopularamongMrSanders’ssupportersduringthe2016primaryDemocraticpresidentialprimary,embodyinghislong-standingdevotiontoprogressiveideasaboutraceandcivilrights,alongwithhisvintageleftybeliefsaboutthestate’sresponsibilitytoprovideequality.(Hissingingabilitiesprobablyplayedlessofafactorinthealbum’ssuccess.)

Despitehisfolksyappeal,MrSanderswasunabletowintheDemocraticParty’spresidentialnominationthatyear.Votersseemtohavedecidedonasimilarfateforhimthistimearound.AfterbrieflyleadingtheprimaryraceinFebruary,theVermontsenatorsufferedaseveresetbackonSuperTuesdayonMarch3rd,asvotersdeliveredaseriesofdecisivevictoriesforhismaincompetitor,JoeBiden,

across14states.MrSandersthuslimpedintothisweek’sroundtrailingtheformervice-presidentbyroughly80delegates,accordingtoTheEconomist’sprojections.OnMarch10thMrBidendealtthefinalblow.MrSanderslostinMichigan,wherehewonin2016,bymorethan15percentagepoints.HealsolostinMissouriandMississippi(whichhelostin2016)andinIdaho(whichhewon).

TheresultsinMichiganareparticularlyroughforMrSanders.In2016hissurprisevictoryinthestateoverHillaryClintonwasanimportantwinforacampaignthathadstruggledtobuildawinningcoalition.Hehadlostthemajorityoftheprimariesandcaucusesheldthepreviousweek,andtrailedbehindMrsClintonby156delegates(farworsethanhispositionthisweek).Yetdespitetheodds—pollshadhimdownby20percentagepoints—hewonthestate,breathingnewlifeintohiscampaign.VictoryinMichigancamethankstohissupportfromworking-classwhites,whofavouredhimbylargemarginsoverMrsClinton,andbyyoungpeople.MrSanders’sprotectionisttradepoliciesmayhavebeenparticularlypopularindecliningpost-industrialcitiessuchasGrandRapidsandKalamazoo.

MuchofthatSanders2016coalitiondidnotstickwithhimthisyear.Inpost-industrialKentCounty(whichsurroundsGrandRapids),hisvotesharefellby18pointscomparedwiththelastelection.InKalamazooCounty,itfellby17points.MrSanders’slossesinbothplaceswerelargerthanhis13-pointdropstate-widerelativetohis2016result.

Itwasthewhite,working-classvotersintheseareaswhodealttheultimateblowtoMrSanders’scandidacy.Cracksinhisbasehadalreadybeguntoshow—suburbanitesandyoungvotershadfailedtoturnoutforhiminSuperTuesdaystatesintherevolutionarynumbersthathehaslongpromised.ButuntilnowitwasnotclearwhetherdowntroddenRustbeltwhiteswouldgivehimenoughsupporttokeephishopesalive.Evidently,theydidnot.AcrossMichigan,hisvoteshareslippedbylargeramountsincountieswithhigherconcentrationsofwhiteadultswhohavenocollegedegrees.Itplunged,too,inthesparselypopulatedareasofthestate(seechart).Althoughthesevoterswerewillingtocasttheirballotsforaself-describedsocialistin2016,thatwasprobablybecausetheydislikedMrsClintonmore.Giventhechoicebetweenalesscontroversialmoderateandfar-leftideologue,theypickedthemoderate.

Theprimaryisallbutovernow.MrBidenemergesfromthelatestcontestswith

a145-delegateleadoverMrSanders,accordingtoTheEconomist’sprojectionsofhowremainingdelegateswillbeallocatedfromstatesthathavenotyetreportedfully.Barringanunforeseendisaster,MrBidenwillprobablygoontowinalargemajorityofdelegatesinnextweek’scontests.PollsputhimaheadinArizona,Florida,IllinoisandOhio—worth577delegatesintotal.

MrSanders’scampaignwillnothavebeenfornought.Hehaspushedthepartytotheleftonmanyoftheissueshecaresaboutmost,forinstanceguaranteeinghealthcareforall.ButhisdemiseshowsDemocratsjustdidnotbelievehecouldbeatPresidentDonaldTrump.

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the economist 2020-03-11...president, from taking part in an election in the future” was quite a...

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