the energy data analysts australasian deepwater – opportunities & global context infield...

THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS

www.infield.com

Australasian Deepwater – Opportunities & Global Context

Infield Systems Ltd.

Will Rowley - Director of Analytical Services

www.infield.comwww.infield.com Perth 22 February 2005Perth 22 February 2005 22


Contents

• Introduction

• Definitions & Clarification

• Global Deepwater – Trends & Sectors

• Regions – Comparisons & Drivers

• Australasia – Development Strategies

• Opportunities

Free world map of deepwater regions & activity – limited quantity



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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Facility $m

WD

(m

)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Actual Year of Spend

$m

Africa AsiaAustralasia EuropeLatin America Middle EastNorth America

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year Installed

Uni

ts

FPSs FPSO Spar

TLP Other

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013


$m

Ultra-deep

Deep

Shallow

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Year Installed

WD

(m)

FPSO

FPSs

TLP

Spar

Other

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


$m

BP CABGOC CNR ConocoPhillipsExxonMobil Shell Star Deep StatoilTotal Woodside Oil Co.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

WD

(m

)

Platform installed WD

2 per. Mov. Avg. (Platform installed WD)



Shallow <500m

Deepwater ≥500m

Ultra-deepwater ≥1500m [subset of deepwater]

Definitions & Clarifications

Water-depth

Units, Values & terminology

Units as noted

Values US$m, Development Expenditure

Prospects Identified developments

Forecasts ISL view on reality of next five years (units & $)

Trends Indications for 5yr+



Europe

North America

Latin America

Africa

Middle East

Asia

Australasia

Definitions & Clarifications - Regions



Global Deepwater – Trends & Sectors



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

No

s.

Shallow

Deep

Ultra-deep

Actual Prospects Prospects not forecasts

Most of these very low status, marginal & won’t be developed and form a ‘bow wave’ to the right

Nos. offshore fields in prospect p.a worldwide

It is these prospects that are the cause of

excitement – the field numbers may be small but ave. reserves/production

rates are large

Not forgetting the unknown potential of deepwater



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

No

s.

Ultra-deep

Deep

No. fields due on-stream growing on the back of extensive (and expensive) E&A activity over past 5 yrs

Trend lines

5 yr forward – high degree of confidence

But the 5-10yr window is harder to

predict



Deepwater development solutions under consideration - prospects

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

No

s

No Dev. YetFloatingFloating or Subsea (Alt.)Fixed & SubseaFixed ERD &/or SubseaSubsea Sat. to FloatingSubsea Sat. to FixedSubsea Sat. to Onshore

Notice lag of subsea to floating & high visibility of subsea prospects

Subsea to shore – growth area, Egypt,

Norway, Brazil

Lack of visibility of development solutions in the longer term even with deepwater



Some Key Notes & Assumptions to Forecasts

Bottom-up, project-by-project assessment

Forecasts 0-5yrs

Trends & Indicators 5-10yrs

Oil price scenario $18-22/bbl – default

Global economy range, static to positive growth (0-3%)

One major global incident every 3-5 years

Project expenditure cross-checked to operators & field owners

Full transparency of methodology, assumptions and forecasts

Final forecasts to 2009 subject to minor change as verification of modelling is completed

Expenditure Levels

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


$m

Platforms

00-04 $13.7bn

05-09 $20.6bn

Platforms Subsea

00-04 $7.9bn

05-09 $17.3bn

Subsea

Pipelines

00-04 $9.1bn

05-09 $14.8bn

Pipelines

Scale of deepwater activity – key sectors

$55bn deepwater development expenditure 05-09 – all sectors

Peaking at $13.7bn in 2006 – installed facilities & infrastructure costs



0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014


$m

Africa AsiaAustralasia EuropeMiddle East Latin AmericaNorth America TrendOn-stream Model

Platform Expenditure

An exceptional peak?

Or the first in a series of development waves? – early

indicators

?

US GoM, West Africa, India, China, Mexico,

Indonesia, Malaysia etc

What could impact on this trend?

High visibility & certainty

Medium visibility & certainty

Low visibility & certainty



0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014


$m

CPT

Semi-Sub Ship-Shaped

Spar TLP

Trend

Forecast

TrendActual

This is dominated by large newbuild FPSOs – we believe

a peak

But still close to $3bn/yr spent on platforms in the

longer term

Rationale -

Need to ascertain success of current crop of large facilities – return on investmentPart of peak one-off infrastructure development – West Africa & hubsCheaper development solutions especially in new deepwater arenasIncreasing focus on subsea

Development scenarios

Average Platform Cost at Sanction (Actual & Intentions)

•0

•100

•200

•300

•400

•500

•600

•1985 •1988 •1991 •1994 •1997 •2000 •2003 •2006 •2009

•Year Of Sanction

• $m Statistical Linear

Trend

Forecast Trend After Lessons Learnt

Only a small number of major operators can afford the newbuild mega-projects that have been a feature of the past few years

Few other companies can afford the risk these projects now bring – and in the short-term many of these have their hands full with existing developments



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013Installation Year

Nos

.

FPS FPSO

Other Fixed Other Floaters

SPAR TLP

In terms of the number of deepwater platforms installed

00-04 = 35

04-08 = 68

59% = FPSO (Africa, Brazil, Asia & Australasia)

Notice low visibility of Spars & TLPs – reflection of their short

development schedules

Note also a lack of projects scheduled for installation in 2010/11, partly because of

‘rollover’ of projects to outside a 5 yr window



500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Year Installed

WD

(m

)

FPSO

FPSs

TLP

Spar

Other

Water Depth Trends

Overall trend continues downward

Increasing diversity of solutions in type and size

Sphere size reflects relative cost scale



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

$m

TLP Spar

Linear (TLP) Linear (Spar)

Dry Tree Solution – cost trends

Not all cost trends are upwards – mini TLPs & repeat designs pulling

average costs down



500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Year Installed

WD

(m

)

TLP – Cost trend by water depth

Kikeh

TLP – growing distinction between large & small

facilities



Spar - Cost trend by water depth

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Year Installed

WD

(m

)

Spar

Consistent trend down to 2,000m

Possibilities here in Atwater Valley (US GoM)



Cost trend by water depth – dry trees

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Year Installed

WD

(m

)

TLP

Spar

Key zone of interaction between Spars & TLPs

Often compete – alternative scenarios



500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020Year Installed

WD

(m

)

FPSO

Deepwater FPSOs

Vary considerably in scale & design – newbuilds & conversions



500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018Year Installed

WD

(m

)

FPSs

FPSs – Semi-submersibles

Key hub developments in many regions – especially US & Brazil



Regions – Trends & Sectors



-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

MM

BO

E

North America

Middle East

Latin America

Europe

Australasia

Asia

Africa

Deepwater reserves due on-stream per annum

Mid-term trend

Large Africa fields coming on-stream clearly visible



0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


$m

Asia Africa

Australasia Europe

Latin America Middle East

North America

Mid-term trend?

Africa41%

North America

26%

Australasia2%

Asia5%

Europe3%

Middle East0%

Latin America

23%

Note - growing importance of Africa

04-08 $m %

Deepwater overall expenditure by region

Note – emergence of Asia & Australasia

Every Region Experiencing Some Growth (5yr vs 5yr)

All deepwater sectors

•0

•1000

•2000

•3000

•4000

•5000

•6000

•1999 •2000 •2001 •2002 •2003 •2004 •2005 •2006 •2007 •2008

•Actual Year of Spend

• $m

•Asia •Africa•Australasia •Europe•Latin America •Middle East•North America

Significant growth in Asia & Australasia



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


$m

Control Lines

Riser

Pipelines

Subsea

Platforms

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

$m

Woodside

BHP Billiton

Australasia – 2% market share 04-08

Small number of developments but an

emerging market

Led by local players at present

Platform expenditure

Are there enough prospects to maintain momentum?

Enfield & Stybarrow FPSOs



9 714 16 17 20 20

27 27 263

3

03

78 10

14 11 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Nos

.

Balance

Top 10 The number of fields brought

on-stream by top ten operators increases but it is the remaining operators who

are growing in influence.

No. of new fields brought on-stream by operators - Global

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

No

s.

Field Owners

OperatorsThe number of field owners is also increasing and there is a

trend of owners eventually moving into operatorships as

their experience grows.



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year Installed

$m

Africa Asia

Australasia Europe

Latin America Middle East

North America

Global subsea development expenditure

Africa47%

Latin America

21%

Middle East1%

North America

21%

Europe2%

Austral'2%

Asia6%

Australasia subsea -

deepwater0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

$m

Woodside

Esso Australia

ChevronTexaco

BHP Billiton



1988, 684m Brazil

1993, 1027m Brazil

1997, 1709m Brazil

2000, 1877m Brazil

2008, 2953m US GoM

2007, 2682m US GoM

2005, 2408m US GoM

2002, 2198m US GoM

2003, 2316m US GoM

1998, 1853m Brazil

WD

Year

Worldwide deepwater subsea production well trends

1000m

2000m

3000m



Australasia – Development Strategies



Australasia – combined deepwater expenditure

Effectively a new sector

Deepwater ave = 83% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison)

Golden triangle ave = 74% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison)

Whilst second smallest region – next to fastest growing (Asia)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


$m

Control Lines

Riser

Pipelines

Subsea

PlatformsPlatforms

46%

Subsea40%

Riser1%

Pipelines12%

Control Lines1%



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


$m

Control Lines

Riser

Pipelines

Subsea

Platforms

Asia – combined deepwater expenditure

Platforms31%

Subsea32%

Riser3%

Pipelines31%

Control Lines3%

Asia 446% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison) $3.6bn

Deepwater ave = 83% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison)

Golden triangle ave = 74% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison)

Already the 4th Most Significant Deepwater Region



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Year Installed

WD

(m

)

Kikeh

Kamunsu

Asia - Cost trend by water depth – all platforms

Australasian experience can be used in Asia

The number & scale of prospects is growing all the time – the key question is timing



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Year Installed

WD

(m

)

Asia

Linear (Asia)

Asia & Australasia deepwater subsea production well trends

Continued move into deeper waters expected



Across Asia & Australasia we are seeing -

• wide range of development scenarios

• innovation in design & approach

• steep learning curve

• strong NOC & independent lead

• increased need for cooperation on delaying issues

• but a growing list of prospects

• world-class opportunities



Asian Deepwater Prospects

Country Operator Field DISC. ON STATUS WD DEVELOPMENT TYPEPhilippines Shell Malampaya (SC-38) 1992 2001 Producing 820 Fixed Production Platform and SubseaPhilippines Shell Malampaya Oil Rim EWT (SC-38) 2000 2001 Suspended 845 Floating ProductionIndonesia Unocal West Seno 1998 2003 Producing 953 Floating ProductionIndia Reliance D6 Field (KG-DWN-98/3) (Dhirubhai) 2002 2006 Firm Plan 900 Floating Production or Subsea (Alternative)

Philippines Shell Malampaya Oil Rim (SC-38) 2000 2006 Possible 845 Floating ProductionIndonesia Unocal Gehem 2003 2006 Probable 1823 Subsea Satellite to Onshore FacilityMalaysia Murphy Kikeh (Sabah Block SB-K) 2002 2007 Firm Plan 1340 Floating ProductionIndia ONGC M Field (KG-DWN-98/2) (Padmavati) 2001 2007 Possible 500 Subsea Satellite to Floating ProductionIndonesia Unocal Merah Besar 1997 2007 Probable 520 Floating ProductionIndonesia Unocal Sadewa 2003 2008 Firm Plan 550 Floating Production

Indonesia Unocal Aton 1999 2008 Possible 1150 Subsea Satellite to Floating ProductionJapan Japex Sanriku Oki 2000 2008 Possible 857 No Development Scheme Announced YetMalaysia Shell Kamunsu East North 2000 2008 Possible 1000 Floating Production or Subsea (Alternative)India ONGC Krishna-Godavari KD-1-1 2000 2008 Possible 844 Subsea Satellite to Onshore FacilityIndia ONGC Annapurna (KG-DWN-98/2 R-Cluster) 2001 2008 Possible 1030 Fixed Production Platform and SubseaMalaysia Shell Gumusut (Sabah SB-J) 2004 2008 Possible 1000 Floating ProductionIndonesia Unocal Hijau Besar 1998 2009 Possible 686 Subsea Satellite to Floating Production

Brunei Shell Merpati/Meragi 1993 2009 Possible 500 No Development Scheme Announced YetMalaysia Shell Kamunsu East 1999 2009 Possible 737 Subsea Satellite to Fixed ProductionIndonesia Unocal Janaka North 1999 2009 Possible 1316 Subsea Satellite to Floating ProductionIndia Murphy D6-D1 Field (KG-DWN-98/3)(Dhirubhai Southeast 2003 2009 Possible 1280 No Development Scheme Announced YetMalaysia Murphy Kikeh Kecil (Sabah Block SB-K) 2003 2009 Possible 1359 Subsea Satellite to Floating ProductionIndia ONGC Krishna-Godavari G-4 2004 2009 Possible 500 No Development Scheme Announced Yet

Philippines Shell Camago (SC-38) 1989 2009 Probable 736 Subsea Satellite to Fixed ProductionIndonesia Unocal Ranggas 2001 2009 Probable 1616 Floating Production or Subsea (Alternative)Indonesia Unocal Gendalo 1999 2010 Possible 1425 Floating Production or Subsea (Alternative)India ONGC N Field (KG-DWN-98/2) 2001 2010 Possible 500 No Development Scheme Announced YetIndonesia Amerada Hess Halimun (Tanjung Ara) 2002 2010 Possible 1061 No Development Scheme Announced YetIndonesia Amerada Hess Papandayan (Tanjung Ara) 2002 2010 Possible 555 No Development Scheme Announced Yet

India Reliance D6-F1 Field (KG-DWN-98/3) (Dhirubhai East) 2003 2010 Possible 1756 No Development Scheme Announced YetMalaysia Murphy Kakap (Sabah Block SB-K) 2004 2010 Possible 926 No Development Scheme Announced YetIndonesia Inpex Jambu Aye Utara 1984 2011 Licence Surrendered 1200 No Development Scheme Announced YetIndonesia Unocal Bangka 1999 2011 Possible 980 Subsea Satellite to Floating ProductionPhilippines Shell San Martin (SC-38) 1982 2012 Possible 850 No Development Scheme Announced YetIndonesia Unocal Putih Besar 1997 2012 Possible 535 Subsea Satellite to Floating Production

Indonesia Unocal Gula 2000 2012 Possible 1844 Subsea Satellite to Fixed ProductionIndonesia Unocal Gandang 2000 2014 Possible 1684 Subsea Satellite to Fixed ProductionIndonesia Unocal Gada 2000 2015 Possible 1897 Subsea Satellite to Fixed ProductionIndonesia Unocal Maha 2002 2016 Possible 742 Subsea Satellite to Floating Production



Australia – Opportunities



• Regional leadership

• To be at the forefront of regional deepwater developments

• Potential to develop a long-term deepwater programme

• Development of low-cost and flexible solutions

• Cross regional opportunities



Australasian Deepwater Prospects

Over $900m of deepwater capex forecast over the next five years

Conservative forecast – much greater potential

OPERATOR NAME FIELD NAMEYEAR DISC.

YEAR ON STREAM STATUS

OIL RES

GAS RES

COND RES WD

PROD RATE OIL (BPD)

PROD RATE GAS(MMCFD) DEVELOPMENT TYPE

Esso Australia Resources Ltd Scarborough 1979 2010 Possible 6000 912 600

Floating Production or Subsea (Alternative)

ChevronTexaco Australia Pty Ltd

Chrysaor (Gorgon Area) 1995 2012 Possible 2900 75 818 360

Subsea Satellite to Onshore Facility

BHP Billiton Petroleum Pty Ltd

Novara (WA-155-P(1) 1995 2012 Possible 45 1015 30000

Subsea Satellite to Floating Production

Woodside Energy LtdEnfield (WA-271-P) 1999 2006 Under Devt 111 11 520 65000 Floating Production

Woodside Energy LtdLaverda (WA-271-P) 2000 2008 Firm Plan 65 20 850 35000



Stybarrow (WA-255-P(2) 2003 2007 Firm Plan 50 10 825 20000 Floating Production


Skiddaw (WA-255-P(2) 2003 2009 Possible 30 10 780 10000



Eskdale (WA-255-P(2) 2004 2011 Possible 15 10 822 10000

No Development Scheme Announced Yet


www.infield.com

Australasian Deepwater

Email: [email protected]

Will Rowley

Director of Analytical Services

Deepwater maps available – limited number

Presentation is available on request – large file

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